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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Zed

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dpong said:
Oh yeah. Per the WTT rules I sold SEDG at the open (POP) on Monday for a gain of 69.24%.

View attachment 188302
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Nice! Now all you have to do is make that an average trade and you will be richer than god! Good work auld fella!
 
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¶ just guessing, but maybe orchestrated riots and attacks on police might be met with more than Democratic appeasement and tacit endorsement if it happens again
 
Zed

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Marty A.

I do not think the US will be able to launch a digital currency by January. The Democrats have put in legislation to create a digital dollar, but it will have to pass the House and then the Senate. Just looking at the timing arrays, it would appear not before May. We have to see the outcome of the Georgia election and now we have two states suing Pennsylvania. Allowing dead people to vote that changes the election is a denial of Equal Protection and Due Process of Law for the entire nation. We have to see how the Supreme Court handles this. We may get a decision by December 14th, 2020.
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dpong said:
I described before my "slow trade" system for trading my retirement accounts. When SPX closes the month above the 20 month moving average I go long the market. When SPX closes the month below the 20 month moving average I go back to cash.

Everyone agreed that this is not a very good trading system. I agreed too, but I trade it anyway. I'm mostly trying to avoid the big big crashes, like 2000, 2008, etc. Fortunately I was not yet trading it when the latest big crash occurred, but it would not have done very well here.

I recently had an idea that I believe constitutes an improvement. Actually in my account I hold about 50% in a guaranteed income fund which accrues a small amount of interest. It is like cash. This is by choice. Since I am doing that anyway this is not a part of the system that I don't like.

When the SPX crashes below the 20 month moving average I could end up giving a lot back. So I recently decided to rebalance. I have been in the market for over 6 months, I'm currently in the 7th month. And the markets have done great. So I'm no longer 50/50 in cash/stocks. So I rebalanced to 50/50 by moving funds out of stocks and back to cash. By doing that I'm basically taking profits. Should we crash again I will not give those funds back again. I lock in those gains.

It's still not perfect but I think a rebalance quarterly or even every 6 months would greatly improve the simple system that is this.

[So using the 20 month moving average in conjunction with periodic rebalancing, I think is a reasonable improvement.]

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I dislike round number moving averages because they seem lazy...What I used to do is create a spreadsheet - download the daily close data of a stock from Yahoo finance and then figure out which specific moving average had the least amount of chop and overall best results. For example - for GDXJ - it was a 34 day moving average. Interestingly - I have never seen an analyst use that specific MA with GDXJ. Granted - its been a few years since I did that...and for each individual stock - the best MA to use will probably differ...
 
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Zed said:
Wait till you see what is coming?! Bluff... or?!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1326327582074220544
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There is no reason for Trump to bluff. The election already happened. All that remains is for the cards to be shown...in a venue where they cant be dismissed out of hand by a hostile media...

Trump has them by the short and curlies and they know it...

Thats why Brennan is on TV openly calling for a coup. He KNOWS he is in the crosshairs because of all that he has done.

PANIC.
 
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Zed said:
3.6% today... I've not pulled the trigger yet.
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Beginning to look more likely we test the band $1750-$1800 Gold but I think the majority of miners bottomed 9/24. Highly unlikely we see the 32 level tested in GDX but with the way this year has unfolded anything is on the table.
 
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Strawboss said:
I dislike round number moving averages because they seem lazy...What I used to do is create a spreadsheet - download the daily close data of a stock from Yahoo finance and then figure out which specific moving average had the least amount of chop and overall best results. For example - for GDXJ - it was a 34 day moving average. Interestingly - I have never seen an analyst use that specific MA with GDXJ. Granted - its been a few years since I did that...and for each individual stock - the best MA to use will probably differ...
Click to expand...
I looked at plenty of MA's for this thing. From my observations the 20 month moving average works as good as any other for what I'm trying to accomplish. That was my studied opinion. I'm not lazy. Crazy, but not lazy.
 
dpong

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Zed said:
Nice! Now all you have to do is make that an average trade and you will be richer than god! Good work auld fella!
Click to expand...
Thanks, and I wish. It's a slow slow process.
 
Lancers32

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Lancers32 said:
Beginning to look more likely we test the band $1750-$1800 Gold but I think the majority of miners bottomed 9/24. Highly unlikely we see the 32 level tested in GDX but with the way this year has unfolded anything is on the table.
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IF this guy just got bearish again it might be time to rethink the bearish case. Gonna finish buying today let the chips fall where they may. This guy has proved to be the ultimate fade.


 
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Lancers32 said:
IF this guy just got bearish again it might be time to rethink the bearish case. Gonna finish buying today let the chips fall where they may. This guy has proved to be the ultimate fade.


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That video was a couple of months old.

So far today's PM action was a non event. All related to a stronger dollar. The miners are loitering in the lower RSI range but we aren't seeing a move of conviction one way or another. I'm about 75% in, but if we see a sharp down move from here that might be the time to get 100% invested. Let's not forget the work @Zed has been looking at with the December contract, which is coming due pretty soon. I'm hopeful for a Thanksgiving washout followed by a Christmastime up move. Maybe that correlates to the period of anarchy we are staring in the face state side as the election is supposed to be certified in mid December. Interesting times...
 
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savvydon said:
That video was a couple of months old.

So far today's PM action was a non event. All related to a stronger dollar. The miners are loitering in the lower RSI range but we aren't seeing a move of conviction one way or another. I'm about 75% in, but if we see a sharp down move from here that might be the time to get 100% invested. Let's not forget the work @Zed has been looking at with the December contract, which is coming due pretty soon. I'm hopeful for a Thanksgiving washout followed by a Christmastime up move. Maybe that correlates to the period of anarchy we are staring in the face state side as the election is supposed to be certified in mid December. Interesting times...
Click to expand...

Sorry for that.
 
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Zed

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Zed

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savvydon said:
No worries. I'm curious to know how ol Gary left translated his thought process after the $100 washout on Monday.;)
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Prediction is a hazardous business.
 
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