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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

dpong

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Talked to brother-in-law at Thanksgiving who was a 20 year partner with Michael Oliver. B-I-L is no gold bug. But he said, unprompted, that the bear move in gold looks about done. It might be time to move back in.
 

Lancers32

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Gold down $300 of the August highs Silver is around the lows made a couple of times the past few months but still higher.
I can't follow every issue so I narrowed it down to 3. CDE bottomed in September. HL and SILJ bottomed in October.

Unless Gold can close under $1670 I am not concerned. Miners seem to be pretty washed out they didn't go under Tuesday's lows even with Silver down a buck early. The psychology is if they would just go down a little bit more I'll buy. Then the tendency is to chase the rally. Low enough now for me.
 

Zed

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Gold Daily - Close up. Picture perfect really. I can't say that you can take that 1740 area off the table but I doubt it will happen. IM often wrong O we are here give or take a few $. Delivery opens next week and as of Wednesday we are down by 49K contracts to 45K open contracts. That would indicate that we are not likely to see a massive December delivery. It may even struggle to get the July's 55K area. It is going to be interesting to see how many of that 45K go for delivery. Given 2020's trend you would expect that a big % of them are standing. It can still be a catalyst for higher prices, it really depends on Comex supply into what ever demand we get here. i.e. who is on the other side of the contract and do they have the gold. Currently there are 173,628 contracts worth of gold in the registered category. A small amount of that is for the enhanced contract, but it has virtually no OI.

BWT. 20 years of seasonal data to and including 2019 has gold up 60% of the time in December.

I'm not sure what to expect from delivery here! I'll take another look tomorrow when we get Friday's numbers.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

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Talked to brother-in-law at Thanksgiving who was a 20 year partner with Michael Oliver. B-I-L is no gold bug. But he said, unprompted, that the bear move in gold looks about done. It might be time to move back in.
Given that I'm a lunatic and we are on the fringe I thought that this might be of interest!

Gold with moon phases.

Untitled.jpg
 

dpong

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Given that I'm a lunatic and we are on the fringe I thought that this might be of interest!

Gold with moon phases.
Looks like the timing is about right. ;^)
 

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dpong

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It's been quite good of late?!!!
I said to my b-i-l the market has nothing to do with logic? He agreed wholeheartedly.
 

gnome

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That moon phase chart is fascinating, though I'd rather have the moons just aligned horizontally in a straight line, otherwise I think I'm just optically deluding myself.
 

Zed

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That moon phase chart is fascinating, though I'd rather have the moons just aligned horizontally in a straight line, otherwise I think I'm just optically deluding myself.
Once upon a time I sold yachts for a living. Every full moon deals would get tough, on the big moons (big tides) you'd always get ape shit crazy stuff going on. Took us a while to work it out, one day my then boss said it's the f'ing full moon so we kept tabs on it. There was something in that idea!

Not all full moons are equal so it's not like clockwork. It is probably worth spending some time to work it out.

I said to my b-i-l the market has nothing to do with logic? He agreed wholeheartedly.
Yes... all emotion and some rationality. Definitely not very efficient but better than anything else we have. We go from irrationally negative through a window of rational pricing to irrationally positive. It's a result of more people not knowing what they are buying vs knowing what they are buying.

I still remember my confusion at the excitement around pets.com. LOL.

We are all LUNATICS!
 
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gnome

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Anyone who works in an ER room knows SHTF on full moon - they mostly hope full moon doesn't fall on a weekend.
 

Lancers32

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I am considering an investment/speculation in crypto not the Greyscale items you can trade with your stock broker. Not sure how to go about it. Looking at Bitcoin Etherium and XRP. I am not considering day trading or anything like that but don't want to have to pay exorbitant fees to switch back to $ if I want. Anyone done this?
 

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I am considering an investment/speculation in crypto not the Greyscale items you can trade with your stock broker. Not sure how to go about it. Looking at Bitcoin Etherium and XRP. I am not considering day trading or anything like that but don't want to have to pay exorbitant fees to switch back to $ if I want. Anyone done this?
Open an account, fund it, then trade. Just like a stock broker.

https://www.binance.com/en
 

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Zed

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Global Debt approaching $280 Trillion by Year-end (link).

... well OK then. I have one question, if almost everyone is in debt who the fuck lent us all this money? That is a metric butt ton of spare cash to have laying around to lend.... unless, you know, you make it from thin air.

It just seems unreal to me.
 

JayDubya

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A Perfect Storm Is Brewing: Stock Market Crash Like No Other Coming In Weeks Or Months

I did a search to see if this has been previously posted and I didn't get any result.
The speaker is quite dramatic....

 

Zed

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A Perfect Storm Is Brewing: Stock Market Crash Like No Other Coming In Weeks Or Months

I did a search to see if this has been previously posted and I didn't get any result.
The speaker is quite dramatic....
Yeah, I could shoot some holes in the presentation... but who knows... we have a failing real economy v trillions of new dollars sloshing around. Logically the market should be concerned about the real economy yet it is drunk on new $$$. So... when does it sober up? or does it just keel over and end up in the ER?

Given up guessing, show me your bias and I will find you a pretty convincing argument to support it!
 

Lancers32

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Global Debt approaching $280 Trillion by Year-end (link).

... well OK then. I have one question, if almost everyone is in debt who the fuck lent us all this money? That is a metric butt ton of spare cash to have laying around to lend.... unless, you know, you make it from thin air.

It just seems unreal to me.

I am amazed they have managed to keep the plates spinning this long. Maybe we wake up one Monday morning and poof. All gone.
 

Zed

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I am amazed they have managed to keep the plates spinning this long. Maybe we wake up one Monday morning and poof. All gone.
If/when it breaks it should go quick... errr um I think. That is about as much as I am sure of these days. It's become ludicrous.
 

Zed

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Someone drown this little pos please.
Mummy drank way too much when she was preggers! Talk about irresponsibility and consequences.
 

dpong

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Hesitation Blues comes from the great Reverend Gary Davis, my virtual musical mentor as well.

iu-4.jpeg
 

dpong

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Astounding guitar player.

 

dpong

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WTT will have me buy NEXTGEN at the open on Monday.

[It has already moved a long way.]

yFQOELiQ.png
 

dpong

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My best stock remains MERCADOLIBRE (MELI). Currently up 94.03%.

tKX1NptK.png
 

gnome

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Institutional money. Bitcoin has a market cap of a couple hundred billion not enough to get the govt involved yet. I know the govt will eventually shut this down but maybe not before it moonshots. Tulips.

https://cryptopotato.com/wall-stree...roval-to-buy-bitcoin-worth-up-to-500-million/
The bull case will argue by the time governments get around to banning bitcoin, there will be so many stakeholders in high places that there will be disincentivize to ban it. And a few nations probably are holding reserves.
The bear case is tulips.

Long and abstract, but a very good listen deconstructing the value and risks of bitcoin.

I like the idea of a small reserve as a very portable insurance. Otherwise maybe a short term trade here or there.
Can't really envision holding a large position.