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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.
- Thread starter Zed
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More CDE.
Gold down $300 of the August highs Silver is around the lows made a couple of times the past few months but still higher.
I can't follow every issue so I narrowed it down to 3. CDE bottomed in September. HL and SILJ bottomed in October.
Unless Gold can close under $1670 I am not concerned. Miners seem to be pretty washed out they didn't go under Tuesday's lows even with Silver down a buck early. The psychology is if they would just go down a little bit more I'll buy. Then the tendency is to chase the rally. Low enough now for me.
I can't follow every issue so I narrowed it down to 3. CDE bottomed in September. HL and SILJ bottomed in October.
Unless Gold can close under $1670 I am not concerned. Miners seem to be pretty washed out they didn't go under Tuesday's lows even with Silver down a buck early. The psychology is if they would just go down a little bit more I'll buy. Then the tendency is to chase the rally. Low enough now for me.
Gold Daily - Close up. Picture perfect really. I can't say that you can take that 1740 area off the table but I doubt it will happen. IM often wrong O we are here give or take a few $. Delivery opens next week and as of Wednesday we are down by 49K contracts to 45K open contracts. That would indicate that we are not likely to see a massive December delivery. It may even struggle to get the July's 55K area. It is going to be interesting to see how many of that 45K go for delivery. Given 2020's trend you would expect that a big % of them are standing. It can still be a catalyst for higher prices, it really depends on Comex supply into what ever demand we get here. i.e. who is on the other side of the contract and do they have the gold. Currently there are 173,628 contracts worth of gold in the registered category. A small amount of that is for the enhanced contract, but it has virtually no OI.
BWT. 20 years of seasonal data to and including 2019 has gold up 60% of the time in December.
I'm not sure what to expect from delivery here! I'll take another look tomorrow when we get Friday's numbers.
BWT. 20 years of seasonal data to and including 2019 has gold up 60% of the time in December.
I'm not sure what to expect from delivery here! I'll take another look tomorrow when we get Friday's numbers.
Once upon a time I sold yachts for a living. Every full moon deals would get tough, on the big moons (big tides) you'd always get ape shit crazy stuff going on. Took us a while to work it out, one day my then boss said it's the f'ing full moon so we kept tabs on it. There was something in that idea!
Not all full moons are equal so it's not like clockwork. It is probably worth spending some time to work it out.
Yes... all emotion and some rationality. Definitely not very efficient but better than anything else we have. We go from irrationally negative through a window of rational pricing to irrationally positive. It's a result of more people not knowing what they are buying vs knowing what they are buying.
I still remember my confusion at the excitement around pets.com. LOL.
We are all LUNATICS!
Not all full moons are equal so it's not like clockwork. It is probably worth spending some time to work it out.
Yes... all emotion and some rationality. Definitely not very efficient but better than anything else we have. We go from irrationally negative through a window of rational pricing to irrationally positive. It's a result of more people not knowing what they are buying vs knowing what they are buying.
I still remember my confusion at the excitement around pets.com. LOL.
We are all LUNATICS!
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I am considering an investment/speculation in crypto not the Greyscale items you can trade with your stock broker. Not sure how to go about it. Looking at Bitcoin Etherium and XRP. I am not considering day trading or anything like that but don't want to have to pay exorbitant fees to switch back to $ if I want. Anyone done this?
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I'll admit I don't know the first thing about it, but can't you simply buy some?
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-to-buy-bitcoin/
https://www.investopedia.com/tech/how-to-buy-bitcoin/
Global Debt approaching $280 Trillion by Year-end (link).
... well OK then. I have one question, if almost everyone is in debt who the fuck lent us all this money? That is a metric butt ton of spare cash to have laying around to lend.... unless, you know, you make it from thin air.
It just seems unreal to me.
... well OK then. I have one question, if almost everyone is in debt who the fuck lent us all this money? That is a metric butt ton of spare cash to have laying around to lend.... unless, you know, you make it from thin air.
It just seems unreal to me.
Yeah, I could shoot some holes in the presentation... but who knows... we have a failing real economy v trillions of new dollars sloshing around. Logically the market should be concerned about the real economy yet it is drunk on new $$$. So... when does it sober up? or does it just keel over and end up in the ER?
Given up guessing, show me your bias and I will find you a pretty convincing argument to support it!
Given up guessing, show me your bias and I will find you a pretty convincing argument to support it!
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Institutional money. Bitcoin has a market cap of a couple hundred billion not enough to get the govt involved yet. I know the govt will eventually shut this down but maybe not before it moonshots. Tulips.
https://cryptopotato.com/wall-stree...roval-to-buy-bitcoin-worth-up-to-500-million/
https://cryptopotato.com/wall-stree...roval-to-buy-bitcoin-worth-up-to-500-million/
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The bull case will argue by the time governments get around to banning bitcoin, there will be so many stakeholders in high places that there will be disincentivize to ban it. And a few nations probably are holding reserves.
The bear case is tulips.
Long and abstract, but a very good listen deconstructing the value and risks of bitcoin.
I like the idea of a small reserve as a very portable insurance. Otherwise maybe a short term trade here or there.
Can't really envision holding a large position.
The bear case is tulips.
Long and abstract, but a very good listen deconstructing the value and risks of bitcoin.
I like the idea of a small reserve as a very portable insurance. Otherwise maybe a short term trade here or there.
Can't really envision holding a large position.