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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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The bull case will argue by the time governments get around to banning bitcoin, there will be so many stakeholders in high places that there will be disincentivize to ban it. And a few nations probably are holding reserves.
The bear case is tulips.

Long and abstract, but a very good listen deconstructing the value and risks of bitcoin.

I like the idea of a small reserve as a very portable insurance. Otherwise maybe a short term trade here or there.
Can't really envision holding a large position.

I still don't get it but I think it does better than the metals.
 

gnome

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Lancers32

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Probably. But gold will never go to zero.
Got that right. I see a few of the Old Guard Rogers et al don't like Bitcoin. Leads me to believe we get a life changing move.

We'll never know what Buffett paid for Barrick or what he got when he sold recently but I got a laugh out of that whole thing. Bought the high sold the local low?
 

gnome

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Buffet is toast. I won't say value investing is dead, but there are a stunning amount of value traps out there as technology is disrupting markets faster than ever.
 

Lancers32

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start of Comex Dec deliveries could toss this view in the garbage

He's just looking for a low soon maybe $100 lower. I keep hearing about the delivery thing and I figure if I know it everybody knows it and it is already priced in. IF we decline this week I am anxious to see how the miners hold up. Been wacky so you never know what the shareholders will decide.
 

nowon

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Unless deliveries surprise to the upside...if you read the election thread there is a growing chance that the election transition won't be smooth....that and risk of covid once again shutting down miners makes me think higher metal deliveries in Dec....2c
 

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The bull case will argue by the time governments get around to banning bitcoin, there will be so many stakeholders in high places that there will be disincentivize to ban it. And a few nations probably are holding reserves.
Yeah... I get that one but I think the argument is on the arrogant side. Government can force a deal of some sort. They also argue that the nations that allow BTC will see capital in-flows. I'd suggest that is true if the economy has wealth that can support it, really if it is OK with a bunch of Zimbabwe's then WTF? I know you can trade out of those currencies but then the larger economies can stop or restrict that. Frankly I just don't see how a bunch of first world economies will be forced into accepting it unless they really want it. I would love to get more clarity on that front. This could be monetary heaven and it could also be a big old honey trap.
 

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Words to live by. On the other hand there is such a thing as opportunity cost. While you get clobbered holding other assets are flying.
Holding cash is a trade, everything is a trade. I've tried to make "friends", who consider me an 'evil trader', realize that whatever they do in life they are taking a trade and speculating on a future outcome. If you don't acknowledge that much you can't take control of your real risk and in life risk control is everything.

2c

FWIW.

From a maturing oldish fart.
 
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Unless deliveries surprise to the upside...if you read the election thread there is a growing chance that the election transition won't be smooth....that and risk of covid once again shutting down miners makes me think higher metal deliveries in Dec....2c
Basically it is how much is demanded against what real supply is actually left in the market. 20 to 30K contracts could be a problem after this year OR the market may not even feel it.

It all depends on the unknowable, who is short and what do they have, who is long and what do they want!

5K contracts is an issue if there isn't a real 5K contracts on the table.

100K contracts isn't a problem if the short sellers are solid gold.

So we wait and see.

I can't see that the case for gold has altered significantly so I assume tight supply.... but we c.
 

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Australia actively considering WTO action against China

Hmmmmmm.... the relationship has hit a rocky patch. We aren't so good at placating bullies, it isn't in the national character.
 

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We are living through the death of old MSM. This is a part of why we are seeing what we are seeing from them. They struggle to remain relevant...

 
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gnome

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Yeah... I get that one but I think the argument is on the arrogant side. Government can force a deal of some sort. They also argue that the nations that allow BTC will see capital in-flows. I'd suggest that is true if the economy has wealth that can support it, really if it is OK with a bunch of Zimbabwe's then WTF? I know you can trade out of those currencies but then the larger economies can stop or restrict that. Frankly I just don't see how a bunch of first world economies will be forced into accepting it unless they really want it. I would love to get more clarity on that front. This could be monetary heaven and it could also be a big old honey trap.
Agreed.
I'm agnostic on it.
Could rocket upwards, but if the Fed, ECB and BOJ simultaneously say "boo!" it could lose 95% of value overnight.
 

Lancers32

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Strange how badly Gold has been behaving lately with DXY trading the way it has been. Dumped whatever I had pre this morning. I think we go a fair bit lower before a turn. Fade me.
 

savvydon

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Strange how badly Gold has been behaving lately with DXY trading the way it has been. Dumped whatever I had pre this morning. I think we go a fair bit lower before a turn. Fade me.
I think we are going to have to see enough pain so that the consensus is further down before we start back up.
 

dpong

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I think so too. Could turn at these levels or not but no real reason to rush in till it proves bottom.
I like that kind of talk. I like to SEE the bottom.
 

jelly

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I'm watching how we close today, but today could be the turning point in the metals. I'm starting to nibble. Might buy more before the close if the setup is good.

Conversely, Oil and copper stocks are looking like they are reversing lower. I'm guessing just a short term top, but either way things are turning here it appears.
 

Lancers32

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I'm watching how we close today, but today could be the turning point in the metals. I'm starting to nibble. Might buy more before the close if the setup is good.

Conversely, Oil and copper stocks are looking like they are reversing lower. I'm guessing just a short term top, but either way things are turning here it appears.
Only Silver I watch that didn't close weakly was SILJ. One more good enema would make me feel better about this sector.