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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Long term looks kinda like a big cup & handle, with few days consolidation after breaking above the $19,000 high?
If so, That's a $16,000 move from the $3000 floor, giving the top of the handle a $35,000 target?
But really, I'm not sure TA really applies here?
Yeah, good place to take profits if leveraged.
I bought some GBTC (grayscale), but no leverage, so I'll just hang on for now.

Could still go higher before bottoming. Still would like to see lower than 25700. GBTC is a weird one. Trading at near 35% premium until last Wednesday under 20% Thursday. Wonder where it opens tomorrow with BTC around 27000. Closed 27.35 with BTC c. 23500. Bet it doesn't make a new high (32)
 

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Gold is into resistance from which it has a reasonable chance of selling off. Closing a day over 1910 would be a possible breakout and we could trade intra day as high as 1930 but really we need to see it closing near the highs before you can relax about a breakout move. Deliveries are almost done for December and Jan has sweet FA in OI @ 1,982 so it will be a low pressure month ideal for price containment.

So on the whole a soft Jan would not surprise... say the first 1/2 to 2/3's.
 
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Voodoo

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If you're wearing a mask and you're concerned that I might infect you because I'm not wearing a mask, then you're not that confident in the reason why you're wearing that mask in the first place, are you?
They might be but then they aren't going to get close and are just scared rabbits. If they get in your face then you have a moron on your hands and act accordingly.
 

gnome

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Could still go higher before bottoming. Still would like to see lower than 25700. GBTC is a weird one. Trading at near 35% premium until last Wednesday under 20% Thursday. Wonder where it opens tomorrow with BTC around 27000. Closed 27.35 with BTC c. 23500. Bet it doesn't make a new high (32)
Yeah, trying to figure out if there's a way to play that premium. Anyway I can trade it in my IRA, so that's what I'll be trading.
 

Lancers32

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Yeah, trying to figure out if there's a way to play that premium. Anyway I can trade it in my IRA, so that's what I'll be trading.
I did that but it felt wrong selling GBTC when BTC wasn't breaking down Tuesday. Managed to get out near the highs mid 31's bought some back too early in the mid 28's loaded the boat as close to the lows on Thursday as I could with the premium under 20%. These past 3 days points out what a bitch it is to play that market with that Greyscale product.

Other than doing the KYC thing with Binance it is the only way to play $BTC right now.
 

Lancers32

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Human's have lived for millennia with the Coronavirus and for most of that time we have been in close contact with animals. Up until 2000 no nasty forms of the virus appeared in humans, it was the annoying but rarely deadly common cold. Since 2000 we have had MER's, SAR's and now SAR's Mk2.... all in two short decades. What do you think that the odds are on that... I'm saying long... all man made IMHO and for a reason.

2001 a building came down in suspect circumstances, a whole bunch of new laws were pushed into place and now I think we get to see why that was the case. These FEMA locations that look like concentration camps, used military hardware from Iraq ending up with local police forces, defunding of some police forces... the list goes on & on. It all looks like a part of the setup, the propaganda the news has become, the social media conditioning etc, etc They want the USA gone, or at the least fundamentally changed. The game switched up in 2001 and now we look like we are entering the end phase.

I'm guessing that by 2030 they want to see the place under some form of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" and that Trump was a major surprise and PITA on the way to that goal. Now they have to play 4 years of catch up.

The thing is that if Trump believes this is true he will be compelled to fight with any and all means possible. If not he is bound to be aggressively persecuted after leaving office. They will want to destroy him and his after this, they will make an example of him as they will not want to risk anyone following him and appealing to the same American voters.

It feels like a weird dream.
Once you open that door there is no turning back. Looks like we lost another one here. DT is bound to get his fat orange a$$ back to wherever because if he makes too big of a stink ask not
 

Tbonz

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this is what is wrong with our country.

the ladies pushing the lady without the mask IMHO deserve to have their asses chewed.

personally if that happened to me it probably wouldn’t be a good outcome for anyone.

I’m sick of the BS, the left has pushed too far when it comes to masks and everything else.

new study shows asymptomatic transmission is negligible, supposedly <300 over 10,000,000 ~cases. IF this is the true then there needs to be a HUGE change in thought regarding the status quo in the schools and in public. IF this is true, then there should be a huge question mark related to a vaccine that has some serious side effects.

there should be some serious inquiries into CHEAP solutions including hydroxichloroquine and the use of Ivermectin protocol.

I would guess that the people that are in a position to make billions are more interested in their bottom line than making sure people are saved.
 

Voodoo

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this is what is wrong with our country.

the ladies pushing the lady without the mask IMHO deserve to have their asses chewed.

personally if that happened to me it probably wouldn’t be a good outcome for anyone.

I’m sick of the BS, the left has pushed too far when it comes to masks and everything else.

new study shows asymptomatic transmission is negligible, supposedly <300 over 10,000,000 ~cases. IF this is the true then there needs to be a HUGE change in thought regarding the status quo in the schools and in public. IF this is true, then there should be a huge question mark related to a vaccine that has some serious side effects.

there should be some serious inquiries into CHEAP solutions including hydroxichloroquine and the use of Ivermectin protocol.

I would guess that the people that are in a position to make billions are more interested in their bottom line than making sure people are saved.
As these Covid idiots try to bitch just babble and tell them you cant understand a word because they are wearing a diaper.
 

Zed

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Once you open that door there is no turning back.
I've been looking @ the pieces for ages with the idea that there was more to it but exactly what was too much effort and frankly too much speculation for me to work out. This year has bought it all into a sharp focus... everything from why the Fed would take the route it did, pretty much certain to break middle class USA, right through to the mad obsession with CO2. Now it all kind of fits together.

I suspect that the roots of this thing are pre WWII but that it kicked into gear properly post WWII with the Chinese revolution which was seemingly and inexplicably enabled by US policy. This cancer has been growing for a long time.
 

nowon

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I've been looking @ the pieces for ages with the idea that there was more to it but exactly what was too much effort and frankly too much speculation for me to work out. This year has bought it all into a sharp focus... everything from why the Fed would take the route it did, pretty much certain to break middle class USA, right through to the mad obsession with CO2. Now it all kind of fits together.

I suspect that the roots of this thing are pre WWII but that it kicked into gear properly post WWII with the Chinese revolution which was seemingly and inexplicably enabled by US policy. This cancer has been growing for a long time.
 

Zed

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Wife thinks I have gone nuts.

I guess I'm now old enough to do that gracefully.... I prefer the term eccentric.
 

dpong

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Wife thinks I have gone nuts.

I guess I'm now old enough to do that gracefully.... I prefer the term eccentric.
You're not crazy. Children of the Corn is real.
 

dpong

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Amazon is probing the imaginary structure.

[Won't know the outcome until the end of this week.]

83g06yea.png
 

dpong

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I have been reading this long thread on aussiestockforums.com discussing the WTT strategy. You can find it here:

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/nick-radges-weekend-trend-trader.28039/page-12

[When the stock scanner returns the results for the week we typically don't have enough positions/money to buy them all. We need a non-arbitrary way to choose which to buy that is non-discretionary. Nick once suggested ranking the stocks by ROC(20), so we buy the stocks with the larger ROC(20) value. But this does mean we are buying the stocks that have already gone up the most. By ranking using ATR(52) we would be buying the stocks that show the most volatility over the past year. They are calling it "Bang for the Buck."]

They are backtesting, etc. They note that the WTT book doesn’t provide a ranking algorithm for choosing among various stocks returned by the stock scanner. I know I have heard Nick say you have to use something so he uses the ROC(20) ranking.

Read the graphic, please. They are comparing the results between using ROC(20) as the rank vs. what they are calling “Bang for the buck” which is the ATR(52). Average True Range for the previous 52 weeks. [Actually this is not "bang for buck", I correct this error 2 posts down.]

What they are saying makes absolute sense! I may switch to this different ranking system. ATR measures historical volatility. Choosing ROC(20) winner means the top stocks have been on a *long* run higher. ATR(52) winner would be stock that has proven ability to move — but may not have moved the most yet.

[Eureka, I love stumbling over something like this.]

Window_and_Nick_Radge_s_Weekend_Trend_Trader___Page_12___Aussie_Stock_Forums.jpg
 
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dpong

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So the least expected move is down for the pm complex. Miners look sick here.
Many silvers have made higher highs on this move, which is productive. But yes, now we hope to make a higher low.
 

dpong

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Someone posted this as Nick's true Bang for the Buck calculation. It is set up for a daily system. I can tell because it is using ATR(200). To translate to a weekly system it would be ATR(40)

below is the "Bang for Buck" PositionScore for Amibroker. Please test it out before using it.

PositionScore = ((10000/Close) * ATR(200))/100; //Nick Radge - "bang for buck".

[I can see it gives more weight to less expensive stocks and then multiplies by ATR(200). At the end he divides by 100 to get the numbers lower than they otherwise would be.]

[ATR is expressed in $ amounts instead of percentages. His calculation is (more or less) converting ATR into a percentage calculation so as not to disadvantage the cheaper stocks. Then he can compare apples to apples.]
 
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Lancers32

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I wanted to 'like' this post, but I don't like it.
I don't like it any more than you do. The tree shaking never seems to stop in this sector does it? Trying my best to hold for the moonshot tempted to dump early this morning decided to hang in there. On the bright side Silver held.
 
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Bitcoin is something that I have read about, and consider an investment, but I have no idea what is really going to make this a viable opportunity or a headache from hell.
Warren Buffett has revealed plenty of details of his investment philosophy, such as this one:
Instead, you should invest in companies that you both understand and believe will offer long-term value, according to Buffett.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/war...ocks-because-you-think-they-will-perform.html

So, he was talking about companies and stocks. But I think that same attitude could be well expanded to other instruments as well, also money. Put your money into something you understand. Or at least you believe you understand.

I must confess that I don't understand Bitcoin. I have expressed my doubts about it many times.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Zed

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Lancers32

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Another dip in the miners some back to last week's lows. As long as the metals hold there is limited downside. Somewhere close to 0. :2 thumbs up:
 

Lancers32

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jelly

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I sense "they" are trying to prevent gold from closing the year above the 2011 highs.

I'm not in the manipulation camp, but these things do strangely happen.
 

dpong

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In the broad markets it appears only the leaders are pushing SPX higher. Smaller names are weak. This is not a good sign for the overall market.

[From where I sit.]