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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Gold Daily - 1970 then 1928 ish? Back testing trend and that 1880 area @ worst? Then onwards?

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Zed

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%3.5 an hour in for the ASX gold tribe.

Now I'm off to sail!

Have fun up there!
 
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gnome

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If that's a cup and handle, the handle is complete at $35k...maybe a consolidation?
Too bad I didn't trade it. I lack conviction.

Screen Shot 2021-01-04 at 8.56.30 PM.png
 

Goldhedge

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Congratulations on 600 pages Zed!
 

dpong

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Bought AmiBroker on Saturday. As of today I have coded a working copy of the Weekend Trend Trader system and I'm able to backtest.

Man is WTT a wild ride.

I started January 1st, 1995 for this backtest. Started with 100,000. Look at that non-smooth equity curve. Nobody said this would be easy.

[Notice that flat area around 2008 when the system went to cash for a good while.]

Window_and_Windows_10.jpg
 

Zed

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Been watching Max & Stacy. I give those guys a bit of latitude and listen occasionally etc... they are a bit rabid for my taste. Followed them on social media for a while... I have to say they are not that bright and they are pretty trashy with it. These guys are an example of the Dunning Kruger effect in full force. Low rent, big mouths... anywhooo... I just felt the urge to put it out there!

I have them in a file with Jim W.

:dduck:
 

Zed

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Bought AmiBroker on Saturday. As of today I have coded a working copy of the Weekend Trend Trader system and I'm able to backtest.

Man is WTT a wild ride.

I started January 1st, 1995 for this backtest. Started with 100,000. Look at that non-smooth equity curve. Nobody said this would be easy.

[Notice that flat area around 2008 when the system went to cash for a good while.]

View attachment 196460
Can you stick an index over that for some sort of perspective? Probably not possible with a back test plot I guess? Just asking...
 

dpong

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Can you stick an index over that for some sort of perspective? Probably not possible with a back test plot I guess? Just asking...
Here is the SPX Monthly for the same time period.

I literally just finished the coding today, so I'm going to have more questions than answers for a while here.

However, though moving quickly, I did seem to tentatively validate that choosing the stocks using Nick's Bang for Buck calculation made a
serious difference on the few runs I tried.

[PS. Mentally compare the period on SPX from the top in 2000 through the top in 2008 which didn't recover the crash until about 2013 -- to the equity curve. Looks like the equity curve smoked the market during those years.]

DlRYOv4x.png
 
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Lancers32

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Been watching Max & Stacy. I give those guys a bit of latitude and listen occasionally etc... they are a bit rabid for my taste. Followed them on social media for a while... I have to say they are not that bright and they are pretty trashy with it. These guys are an example of the Dunning Kruger effect in full force. Low rent, big mouths... anywhooo... I just felt the urge to put it out there!

I have them in a file with Jim W.

:dduck:
I don't know but I think the old lady is the one parading around with a lamp shade on her head at the Christmas party. Max has made plenty of money.
 

Zed

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Max has made plenty of money.
Yeah sure...

I sail with plenty of guys that have.

They ain't all class, that is for sure... luck through to out right thuggery involved in some of the stories!

It certainly doesn't buy respect on the course I can tell you that much.

I dunno his story but she'd probably suit a lamp shade.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Lancers32

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I guess they have enough people conned that think it really fockin matters who gets elected. Sure it is fixed why not?
 

Lancers32

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I would rather have Walter White bang me in the arse with what he cooked up than take this crap they are peddling. The generation that protested Viet Nam willingly walks around with a diaper and takes untested medicines while eating focking bean sprouts and fake meat. Fock me.
 

Curtman

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The US government has sent a clear signal to us peons. If you think you are going to get a UBI think again. They barely managed to pull a $600 handout out of their a$$. No intention of doing anything other than complete dominance and extinction. Best make as much coin the next few years as you can.
Sorry bro you are incorrect
 

dpong

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10 year yield busting a move today.

G05pLj1H.png
 

dpong

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I found the sweet spot. As in Nick's backtest in his book "WTT" run this on Russell 3000 for stocks priced between $1 and $20 only.

[That looks better!]

Windows_10.jpg


Window_and_Windows_10-2.jpg
 

gnome

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dpong

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23% annual, not bad. But I think you've done considerably better than that?
2020 in WTT only I made 24.04% return. But my backtest is showing 23% average annual over *25 years*. Wow.

If you add in my goldies, yes I've done better than that this year. ;^)
 
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Zed

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2020 in WTT only I made 24.04% return. But my backtest is showing 23% average annual over *25 years*. Wow.

If you add in my goldies, yes I've done better than that this year. ;^)
The back test is kinda telling you that if you get an exceptional period you should step back the moment it goes west and paper trade for a bit.
 

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I was thinking lately - Where are all the new people on GIM? The only ones who post here have been posting for years.
Are we scaring everyone away? I thought this new gold bull market would bring on new posters here. But we have yet to see any newbies.
Strange to me... :don't know:
 

Lancers32

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There are no newbies. Found this on YouTube thought it was pretty ridiculous. Once I saw the heading I didn't bother to listen. $15000 Gold and $100 Silver?


 

Zed

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There are no newbies. Found this on YouTube thought it was pretty ridiculous. Once I saw the heading I didn't bother to listen. $15000 Gold and $100 Silver?


Ratio way off there! Rickards has been saying if he is wrong its on the low side, that implies 300 to 500 silver... ?!!!
 

Zed

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Meanwhile tsla has doubled in about a month. I need to stop fighting the trend
It would be nice if it felt solid... but.. yikes! 1350 PE has to be some sort of record?!