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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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savvydon

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I was thinking lately - Where are all the new people on GIM? The only ones who post here have been posting for years.
Are we scaring everyone away? I thought this new gold bull market would bring on new posters here. But we have yet to see any newbies.
Strange to me... :don't know:
All the other amateurs I see and hear around me at the work place are all talking stock market and bit coin. We really are a bunch of dinosaurs... but even a broken clock is right twice a day. I've come all this way, I gotta be right someday!:p
 

savvydon

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It looks more like someone needed a headline than any real need to shoot to defend. Assholes.

I dunno, Z. I don't have knowledge of what actually occurred, but say that fellow was tasked with defending lawmakers who were inside the barricade. This person pops up, perhaps with some sort of a bomb? He has no clue - anything is possible in this moment of chaos. I'm not condoning gunning folks down, but that person sort of put themselves in the line of fire.
 

Zed

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I dunno, Z. I don't have knowledge of what actually occurred, but say that fellow was tasked with defending lawmakers who were inside the barricade. This person pops up, perhaps with some sort of a bomb? He has no clue - anything is possible in this moment of chaos. I'm not condoning gunning folks down, but that person sort of put themselves in the line of fire.
I couldn't see any justification for it in that video. Looked measured and unrequired.
 

savvydon

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I couldn't see any justification for it in that video. Looked measured and unrequired.
I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the fellow on the other side of the door must have felt like he was on a war footing. It is different when one is on the outside looking in, from safe vantage point.
 

Zed

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I don't necessarily disagree with you, but the fellow on the other side of the door must have felt like he was on a war footing. It is different when one is on the outside looking in, from safe vantage point.
Yeah, but they didn't look like they where getting through, or armed, or actually anything more than rowdy. Nothing was on fire unlike early this year!
 

savvydon

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savvydon

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Yeah, but they didn't look like they where getting through, or armed, or actually anything more than rowdy. Nothing was on fire unlike early this year!
Yes, but a major difference between this and then was that then there were fires in peripheral skirmishes. This was a direct attack on central command. Not saying he was right to shoot - just saying he for damn sure was not prepared to be wrong by not shooting.
 

Zed

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Makes sense that bonds would become cheaper and yields would rise as more risk (in the form of accelerated spending) is perceived. Is it also the case that rising interest rates in the 10 year bond will cause a larger portion of the budget to be eaten up with interest payments?
Should mean a weaker USD as well!
 

Zed

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Yes, but a major difference between this and then was that then there were fires in peripheral skirmishes. This was a direct attack on central command. Not saying he was right to shoot - just saying he for damn sure was not prepared to be wrong by not shooting.
Looked more like energetic protest than attack to me, looked like most other public buildings being occupied over the years. A rowdy bunch and a bit of broken furniture.

It would be good to see more raw footage of the day.
 

Zed

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Wow, first I am hearing this from you. Do you think a dollar melt up is off the table, then?
No, just that rising rates and a weaker dollar should go hand in hand. I think the USD is due for some sort of rally... but... it ALWAYS takes WAY longer to turn than expected.

Always open to the idea that I'm wrong on that USD thing, however the melt up idea still looks right to me.

Thinking on it?!

More tomorrow maybe.
 

savvydon

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Looked more like energetic protest than attack to me, looked like most other public buildings being occupied over the years. A rowdy bunch and a bit of broken furniture.

It would be good to see more raw footage of the day.
I absolutely agree. Reminds me of the lyrics to a Dylan song called 'Up to me':

Well we all heard the sermon on the mount
and I know it was too complex
It didn't amount to anything more
Than what the broken glass reflects

My interpretation in that scene was that the furniture was being used to barricade the doors in a desperate attempt to keep the mob out. In that fellow's defense, I don't think he could have be reassured that getting through the door might not have resulted in violence being perpetrated. I'm sure he felt it was his solemn duty to protect those beyond the doors. It's tough call, and a sad scene all the way around.
 

Zed

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My interpretation in that scene was that the furniture was being used to barricade the doors in a desperate attempt to keep the mob out. In that fellow's defense, I don't think he could have be reassured that getting through the door might not have resulted in violence being perpetrated. I'm sure he felt it was his solemn duty to protect those beyond the doors. It's tough call, and a sad scene all the way around.
Considering, they were unarmed, with fully armed police @ their rear he probably could have waited before he selectively fired one shot into one protestor.

Sorry mate, he was there to generate a headline @ the expense on someone's life.

Piss poor showing IMHO.
 

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Maybe some of you could answer a question that I've been wondering....
I know nothing goes up forever a correction has to happen in the overbought stock markets.
What happens to mining stocks in a market crash?
All in now. I am not the best trader and a bull can chew you up.
Have decided to bag hold most of stocks, but...
 

savvydon

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Considering, they were unarmed, with fully armed police @ their rear he probably could have waited before he selectively fired one shot into one protestor.

Sorry mate, he was there to generate a headline @ the expense on someone's life.

Piss poor showing IMHO.
Not sure he knew who was back there. If they were banging on a barricaded door, why would he expect that there were armed police there? Also, why would he assume they were unarmed? I don't disagree that it may have been a piss poor showing, but I think you give him too much credit by assuming that he knew enough to calculate that he was just trying to generate a headline. Just my 2c, if its even worth that.
 

savvydon

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Maybe some of you could answer a question that I've been wondering....
I know nothing goes up forever a correction has to happen in the overbought stock markets.
What happens to mining stocks in a market crash?
All in now. I am not the best trader and a bull can chew you up.
Have decided to bag hold most of stocks, but...
Best find someone smarter than me to step in, but I'll give it a whirl until they do. The market is made of sectors. The PM sector is still down 30-40% off its 2011 high. Also, assume the market crashes - sure miner's being a stock might take some sort of a hit, at least initially anyway. But then as money rotates into safe havens, like PMs, there is impetus for miners to rise. In fact, you could argue that in this money printing phase we are already in, and which now will likely accelerate, commodities in general should shine.
 

Lancers32

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Maybe some of you could answer a question that I've been wondering....
I know nothing goes up forever a correction has to happen in the overbought stock markets.
What happens to mining stocks in a market crash?
All in now. I am not the best trader and a bull can chew you up.
Have decided to bag hold most of stocks, but...
Don't watch they will probably be higher in a few months out.
 

Lancers32

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Considering, they were unarmed, with fully armed police @ their rear he probably could have waited before he selectively fired one shot into one protestor.

Sorry mate, he was there to generate a headline @ the expense on someone's life.

Piss poor showing IMHO.
Seems as if protesting is dangerous for your health in the USA. You gotta understand these cops have adopted a shoot first strategy. Avoid at all costs.
 

Lancers32

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Yeah sure...

I sail with plenty of guys that have.

They ain't all class, that is for sure... luck through to out right thuggery involved in some of the stories!

It certainly doesn't buy respect on the course I can tell you that much.

I dunno his story but she'd probably suit a lamp shade.
Keiser might be a bit out there but he has called Bitcoin pretty well so far.
 

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jelly

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I don't have much respect for Keiser, he's like a child who refused to mature. But he has been right on bitcoin.

I've mostly stayed away from bitcoin partly because I don't see the value in it. And also because in reality its just a bunch of nerds jacking eachother off. I know too many millenials who know nothing about stocks and investing, but think they are the smartest person in the world because they've made money on bitcoin. I can't stand to be around them.
But now i'm starting to think it's going to keep going up until governments create their own digitial currencies and move to outlaw competing private currencies like bitcoin. With one stroke of a pen, bitcoin can go to 0. In the end, as a trader, all that matters is the trend, and the trend is up.
 

Lancers32

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You know they say some of the best traders are dumb as $hit. Bitcoin might be a look don't think or it just might be the best trade you never made. Just hold the crap.

Question you gotta ask is would you feel dumber if you buy and it goes to $hit or you don't buy and it goes to half a million or some such ridiculous number. Best part is you don't have to do anything with it. There are other vehicles.
 

Lancers32

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Sure as $hit is but the old adage goes nothing is so high that it cannot go higher nor so low that it cannot go lower. Hey you have a car company that sells no cars but is valued on the SM for more than all the competition. Tell me any of this makes sense. Silver at $27? Really with Gold at $1900? Silver was $50 41 years ago. Logic is gone.
 

Lancers32

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This road map is probably as good as any for the Coin. 4 year cycle in 1 now. Dump sometime 4th quarter this year wait for the smack down accumulate rinse repeat. As if it will be that easy right. I think the top we see this year will be nowhere near the next high.
 

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Lancers32

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Anybody trading GBTC? Take a look in your streamer 5 minute candles and see the tip for the incoming low around 42. There a a spike down there early this morning when we were trading around 47.50.
 

jelly

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Anybody trading GBTC? Take a look in your streamer 5 minute candles and see the tip for the incoming low around 42. There a a spike down there early this morning when we were trading around 47.50.
It's on my watchlist.
If bitcoin can pull back to the 20's I'd probably buy some. Right now it's going parabolic, and in my opinion, a fools game to buy. I think bitcoin will be much higher by years end, but right now I'm waiting for a buying opp.
 

Lancers32

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Interesting Michael Oliver interview.
He's saying $8-9,000 gold in 2021, $200+ silver.
Apparently things are heating up from his view.

Excellent thanks for posting 2021-2022 for those prices I think he said. Never know but so far as Silver goes let's make a new high before we get too excited.
 

jelly

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Good luck waiting on the 20's but with this market anything is possible.
I see bitcoin as a classic parabolic move. The time to buy was back in October. Now's the time to sell.
Indicators are all at extremes. On the weekly chart, the indicators are at levels that are more extreme than even in 2017. This thing can come crashing down hard any day. Or should i say, any second. There's a chance we could shoot to $50k first, but its gonna be lightning fast, then crash hard.

sc.png




Weekly:
sc2.png
 

dpong

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I see bitcoin as a classic parabolic move.
I completely agree. And you are being generous in using log charts.
 

dpong

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You guys are smarter than me maybe you can figure this chart out.
I don't know anything. But it reminds me of this, which I sold. :) I would have no idea how to handle bitcoin.

4ea7KkP7.png
 

Lancers32

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TBH being long BTC scares the hell out of me after this kind of run up but it has seen corrections although short along the way since 20K.
 

gnome

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Anybody trading GBTC? Take a look in your streamer 5 minute candles and see the tip for the incoming low around 42. There a a spike down there early this morning when we were trading around 47.50.
I've just been holding GBTC for the last month, buying a little on the red days. Don't really feel like it's very tradeable.

Been thinking about trying to use a wheel strategy on one of the bitcoin mining stocks, sell puts, so I don't chase the price and if it just keeps going up, I've got my premium. If it goes down, well I get assigned, but at least I didn't buy the absolute top. I don't know. Tricky trading.
 
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Zed

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Not sure he knew who was back there. If they were banging on a barricaded door, why would he expect that there were armed police there? Also, why would he assume they were unarmed? I don't disagree that it may have been a piss poor showing, but I think you give him too much credit by assuming that he knew enough to calculate that he was just trying to generate a headline. Just my 2c, if its even worth that.
Police don't tend to fire one shot when threatened, they unload a full clip. He took his time, fired one shot and stopped. There was no obvious triggering event to either start or stop firing. That is to say one shot is the last thing I'd expect given the circumstance.

Sorry, it looks suspect.