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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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I find him to be a bit of an over confident but highly capable maverick. At the least that is how he comes off in interviews to me. You can't argue with his track record but we all get some calls very wrong!


I see what you did there.
 

savvydon

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That proverbial cup looks like it is growing a handle big enough to get a finger under to drink the koolaid. Personally, it appears the longer and bigger the handle gets the farther up we shoot. Looking to me like a wave 4 down and if that 900 dollar wave 3 up is any measure of what is in store, $3000oz is in reach before wave 5 is done. 2c
 

Zed

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That proverbial cup looks like it is growing a handle big enough to get a finger under to drink the koolaid. Personally, it appears the longer and bigger the handle gets the farther up we shoot. Looking to me like a wave 4 down and if that 900 dollar wave 3 up is any measure of what is in store, $3000oz is in reach before wave 5 is done. 2c

Aside from the multi-year crushing we got after the 2011 high whenever Oliver's momentum study has reached these sorts of lows we have established a low.

FWIW I have a sea of red today save for my mavericks, they are green and they are the stocks I've added to recently. I'm seeing green shoots.... maybe I need new glasses but?!
 

Zed

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Ten Year Yield -> Momentum looks positive. @ a guess I'd say we fudge around here, blast up to ~2, fudge around there and then blast up to ~2.5. There we have the crucial battle for the longer term trend.

Untitled.jpg
 

Zed

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SPY hanging onto the 50-DMA. If it goes below, watch out.

The last two dips below have been brief. I think that the 90 DMA is the real waring signal and the 120DMA is a potential panic point. For now I think we are in BTFD land.
 

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Be afraid?

So yes, Powell and the Fed could ignore the rise in yields as long as the turmoil did not spread to the repo market - such a move could be explained by the reflationary macro narrative - but now that the 10Y is trading below the fails charge in repo the repo market is officially cracking and as Sept 2019 taught us, there is nothing that the Fed is more worried about than the sanctity of the repo market.

 
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Zed

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The last two dips below have been brief. I think that the 90 DMA is the real waring signal and the 120DMA is a potential panic point. For now I think we are in BTFD land.
I’m looking for more of a sustained correction if we go below the 50 day. We have many commodities reversing from their parabolic moves, along with a breakdown in gold from strong support. I think these things are pointing to more than a short and brief dip. But I could be wrong! I’m suspicious of something going on in the markets right now.
 
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I’m looking for more of a sustained correction if we go below the 50 day. We have many commodities reversing from their parabolic moves, along with a breakdown in gold from strong support. I think these things are pointing to more than a short and brief dip. But I could be wrong! I’m suspicious of something going on in the markets right now.

We have never done crashes in two consecutive years, it would be a first.

IMO they are getting ready to chuck moar $$$$$$$. Bonds got them spooked.

Could be mighty, needs to be mighty.
 

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Lancers32

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Coming to an a$$hole near you. Ben Dover son.
 

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Lancers32

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Can it be this easy? Marking Bitcoin Turns?
 

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Lancers32

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GDX slightly higher bottom and a pop with Gold down. GDX green. Lots of miners well off their lows today regardless of the metal prices.
 

Zed

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Yep. Gold stocks showing relative strength. So that's a good sign for now. Get out of town if that 1680 bottom falls out of gold.
 

Lancers32

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Yep. Gold stocks showing relative strength. So that's a good sign for now. Get out of town if that 1680 bottom falls out of gold.


For now. Something doesn't quite feel right though. Bottoms usually take some time to form and while my favorite Silvers are well off their September/November lows even now I don't see the need to rush in here especially with how the $ is acting. Gold breaks mid $1600's Silver will absolutely crater.
 

Lancers32

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Know when you are wrong. Bearish and Bullish counts for Gold. Sexy New Zealand accent BTW.


 

Zed

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Know when you are wrong. Bearish and Bullish counts for Gold. Sexy New Zealand accent BTW.



Elliot Wavers mostly have been bearish gold ever since I got involved in it and gold had a 3 digit price with a 2 up front! Prechter called for $200 gold for soooooooooooooo long and was sooooooooooooooooo wrong AND they still think he is the gold calling guru. FFS. EW is a freakin religion.

Don't get me wrong, it has it's uses... but when they get forehead deep in it they can't see the forest for the trees.
 

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For now. Something doesn't quite feel right though. Bottoms usually take some time to form and while my favorite Silvers are well off their September/November lows even now I don't see the need to rush in here especially with how the $ is acting. Gold breaks mid $1600's Silver will absolutely crater.

USD has some momentum here, it has broken trend and it looks like it will accelerate over DXY 92. I think that gold goes with it after the obligatory initial dip. It could be a sharp move, the USD is a crowed trade. I'm finding it hard to be overly bearish gold with the enormous physical take off happening on the Comex, it doesn't even gel with the last 8 months of price action. Feels very much like there is a big foot on it's throat. That can only last so long.
 

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Gold breaks mid $1600's Silver will absolutely crater.

That will send the kids mental, they will buy hand over fist and we will see the biggest small product shortage ever. The only way to slow that roll is higher prices, much higher. If they are stupid enough to crater the metal it will be like chum in the water IMO. The days of scaring off physical buyers are gone, these kids are political buyers as much as physical buyers.
 

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Sentiment here is in the dumpster.
 

Lancers32

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Sentiment here is in the dumpster.

Could be but you have to respect these extreme price dumps regardless of your bias. Since last August it has not paid to chase any strength. Could be forming a major bottom somewhere in here just don't want to jump the gun with any size at this point.
 

Lancers32

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Reasonable knife catch.
 

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Lancers32

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Silver. Took out support but there are levels underneath.
 

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Zed

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Could be but you have to respect these extreme price dumps regardless of your bias. Since last August it has not paid to chase any strength. Could be forming a major bottom somewhere in here just don't want to jump the gun with any size at this point.

If you take 01 to 11 as the first major upleg and 16 to ? as the second major upleg the structure looks like we are @ a similar point to late 08.

We are @ the 61.8 retracement level of about ~1685, 08 saw a 50% retracement which would deliver ~1562. Both are levels with obvious support so I have higher confidence in the numbers. If we get a broad market meltdown I'm looking for the 50% level. All other things being equal we are @ a logical turning point.

Bull markets do tend to strengthen over time so 61.8 isn't an unrealistic expectation, add to that that you get the feeling they are on high alert and wanting to keep the broader market on the rails so I expect a bit of a juice train to arrive @ around DXY 92.

Discounting sudden breakages and big surprises the gold stock buyers are possibly right on the money.
 

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+ I've got directors buying stock. They all talk and they all know people who know people, so there is that to consider.
 

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Reasonable knife catch.

I dunno how he/she has drawn that, looks backwards to me.

If I reverse the scale we are @ 38.20% of the 2015-2020 move.
 

Zed

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Scaling the 2000-2011 move to the 2015/6 + move we get a mid 2023 high time wise.
 

Lancers32

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I dunno how he/she has drawn that, looks backwards to me.

If I reverse the scale we are @ 38.20% of the 2015-2020 move.


Drawn from the $1450 Gold bottom.
 

Lancers32

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That will send the kids mental, they will buy hand over fist and we will see the biggest small product shortage ever. The only way to slow that roll is higher prices, much higher. If they are stupid enough to crater the metal it will be like chum in the water IMO. The days of scaring off physical buyers are gone, these kids are political buyers as much as physical buyers.

They can't buy enough to matter. The dealers aren't going to sell at a reasonable price no matter how low the Silver paper price goes but the paper price does seem to matter to what the miners do. Usually lower metals prices translates into lower mining stock prices whether manipulated or not.
 

Zed

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Drawn from the $1450 Gold bottom.

I'm working from the lows of ~1044.

That tool is scaled in the opposite direction to mine. I'm talking a correction to 61.8% of the move.

Anywhooo...
 

Zed

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They can't buy enough to matter.

If they go the PSLV route in the face of small product shortage that will hit 1000oz bars.

I'm not going to discount this crowd, they are communicating like no bugs before them.

2c
FWIW.
 

Zed

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