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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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I see spot Kitco Gold low $1676 today. If we cannot get a strong bounce off these levels fairly soon I think it is very bearish.
 

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I see spot Kitco Gold low $1676 today. If we cannot get a strong bounce off these levels fairly soon I think it is very bearish.
You think premiums are high now? Wait until $1200/18 and you can't find anything south of $1480 and $24 in physical.
Their ability to smash with hundreds of billions in paper is pure insanity.
 

Cigarlover

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You think premiums are high now? Wait until $1200/18 and you can't find anything south of $1480 and $24 in physical.
Their ability to smash with hundreds of billions in paper is pure insanity.

What I don't understand is this.
All the big dealers hedge. So if they short silver contracts in case the price goes down before they can offload their silver supply. At the same time they are driving the price down by shorting the futures they are raising the premiums so essentially making money on both sides.

There must be something I don't understand here. Seems to me if they are just going to raise the premiums anyway they may as well forget the hedging. Unless of course they are expecting a major downturn.. I'm not in the business so I know shit. Probably more to it than that.
 

Uglytruth

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Called a coin shop where we bought before the WSS guys. Premium is now $5.99 on silver rounds. Out of most stock and no dimes or quarters.
 

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Yikes, $6 premium on rounds. Yeah, I'd say the real price versus the paper price is doing some serious testing of a real break.
 

Lancers32

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So you thought you were bearish?
 

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Zed

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Predicting shit is real hard. Maund early January. Oops.

You really need to wait until the break out. It's not a pattern until complete, H&S, Cup and Handle etc are squiggles unless the resistance has broken and the volume supports the pattern. Most everyone seems to ignore that these days.
 

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Lancers32

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Fund rebalancing into April is going to force a quite a bit more stock selling and bond buying according to JPM.


Mining stocks too?
 

Lancers32

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You still holding Gold and Silver grasshopper?

 

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What I don't understand is this.
All the big dealers hedge. So if they short silver contracts in case the price goes down before they can offload their silver supply. At the same time they are driving the price down by shorting the futures they are raising the premiums so essentially making money on both sides.

There must be something I don't understand here. Seems to me if they are just going to raise the premiums anyway they may as well forget the hedging. Unless of course they are expecting a major downturn.. I'm not in the business so I know shit. Probably more to it than that.

This is what I understand...

When the mint or whom ever buys silver that is for resale as a product that is essentially dependent on the current price of silver for it's market price they will sell short at the same time they buy the metal. So they will be long spot 5000oz and they will sell short one contract (5000oz) in a forward month. The difference in price will normally be the cost of storage for that period. That transaction should be pretty well price neutral in terms of the over all market. The variance in the premium should be gravy, small product shortages and high premiums just give them a better margin. Considering how fine their margin normally is (i.e. bloody small when you look @ normal retail!) it doesn't surprise that they jack premiums as soon as they see excess buying. It should have very little to do with the actual cost of the metal (close to a wash as they buy and sell at the same time) and more to do with minting costs and consumer demand.

That's what I believe to be true after listening to all and sundry all these years.
 

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Mining stocks too?

They are not full of juice, so maybe @ first they will be influenced by the selling but they will not be @ the heart of the selling... if it happen it's a buy. It's the "long duration" stocks aka market darlings that they are now overweight in due to the excellent run they have had so they will be sold back to balance risk in the portfolio. Bonds will be added, because they are now cheap. Any fund that includes gold stocks will actually be adding as they are cheap now. It will be a sell TSLA add Barrick deal...
 

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Lancers32

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Proud to be an American.


 

Zed

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Some gold stocks I watch are back to the level they where when gold was 1200.
 

Zed

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Gerald?!!!! Is that you?

Gerald Celente: “We’re going to have a big bounce, there’s no question about it. And it’s going to be global. The economy has been locked down for over a year and now it’s going to start booming. The central banks and governments around the world keep pumping money into the system, so the people are going to have money to spend. It’s going to be an artificial bounce but it’s going to be a big one…Gerald Celente discusses the imminent global boom as the world prepares to open economies, what surprises to expect, as well as what’s next for the gold market
 

Lancers32

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Gerald?!!!! Is that you?

Doesn't sound like him. If you are currently working you have had money to spend all this while IF you are unemployed it won't be any different because the govt is going to continue to pay UI supplements while the states continue to pay as well. IF they open up nationwide you might see a spike in restaurants that kind of spending but FFS this isn't exactly going to be VE Day. Guy is nuckenfutz.
 
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Lancers32

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Speaking of cup and handles. This whiz thinks Gold might make it back to the old highs by the end of next year. I say screw that buy Bitcoin and get that kind of return in ONE WEEK. :tex:


 
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savvydon

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So you thought you were bearish?
It is good to start to see this kind of crap pop up. It tells me we are starting to wash out...
...or, bring me the sub 1000 gold. I’ll get the springs on my truck tightened up for when I back it up.
 

Zed

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Doesn't sound like him. If you are currently working you have had money to spend all this while IF you are unemployed it won't be any different because the govt is going to continue to pay UI supplements while the states continue to pay as well. IF they open up nationwide you might see a spike in restaurants that kind of spending but FFS this isn't exactly going to be VE Day. Guy is nuckenfutz.

It probable means his dire forecast are due come true!
 

gnome

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They are not full of juice, so maybe @ first they will be influenced by the selling but they will not be @ the heart of the selling... if it happen it's a buy. It's the "long duration" stocks aka market darlings that they are now overweight in due to the excellent run they have had so they will be sold back to balance risk in the portfolio. Bonds will be added, because they are now cheap. Any fund that includes gold stocks will actually be adding as they are cheap now. It will be a sell TSLA add Barrick deal...

With about $20B cash on hand, Tesla could just buy Barrick.
 

Zed

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Zed

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Northern Dynasty?

No, a bunch of Aus miners... it's amazing. They are better operations today to boot! This has to be over done... there can't be much more left.
 

Lancers32

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It is good to start to see this kind of crap pop up. It tells me we are starting to wash out...
...or, bring me the sub 1000 gold. I’ll get the springs on my truck tightened up for when I back it up.

You won't find any physical.
 

savvydon

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You won't find any physical.
I have some Eagles I hold at the bottom of some lake, but they are a part of an IRA I didn't have the sense to avoid. If gold ever dumps I'll liberate them at a lower rate for tax purposes.
 
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Lancers32

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I think Friday's bottoms hold in the mining shares.
 

Lancers32

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Hardly ever get lucky in pre market. Sometimes.
 

Lancers32

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It seems a lot of the miners are having a problem keeping pace with the rate of rise in Silver today. Buy the next big red day stops under Friday's lows.
 

Lancers32

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He's back. So we either go up or down but if we go down then we go up.
 

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gnome

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Or a really big Silver mine.

Yeah, silver, nickel, cobalt or lithium all more relevant than gold to tesla. They just partnered on one the bigger nickel projects in the world, but terms are unclear and even at full production the mine couldn't satisfy Tesla's demand.
 

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From Coinflation.com:

Current_Melt_Value_Of_Coins_-_How_Much_Is_Your_Coin_Worth_-2.jpg
 

Zed

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Bit of a rebound in PM's. Bottom in?!?
Awwww c'mon guys lay your bets down...
:2 thumbs up:

Been saying for a week or so now, very close if not it. Been buying some gold miner that look to be discounting the low in gold, we might do 1660 IMO BUT I now favor a run @ 1800 or so from here. Resistance @ 1776 should be the first real pause....I think!?
 
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gnome

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Zed

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Almost 40K on the Silver Reddit now... not huge but not nothing.

The meme's are getting better.
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