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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Americans are already forced to buy UST's. It's called Social Security.

Ya mean the fileing cabinet full of zero coupon bonds?
 
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Zed

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About 2 weeks ago Oil was doing great so my WTT system bought about 9 different small oil/energy companies - stock priced between $1 and $20. Boy is my ars sore.

View attachment 205020

A high oil price is like a quasi tax... there will be resistance to that idea from official circles. Makes you wonder how active they get in all markets these days.
 

Lancers32

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Twinkle Toes. Best part is the salute.:blond:


 

Zed

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Zeds Holiday.jpg
 

Zed

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Gold Weekly USD - Looks good for another week or two. Topping $1800 on a weekly basis is the hurdle, that will signal that the worst of this is over.

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Zed

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ASX:RMS just by way of an example of where the better Aussie gold stocks are now. Looking like they are very much on the cusp of a few months of rally.

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Zed

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Zed

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Ozs to buy the HUI, testing the ~ 200 WMA area. Seems to be an area that moves the market. This is the first real test from above for a long time and so far, so good.

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Zed

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Ozs to buy the SPX > Looks due to head back toward that 1.5 area, the oscillators are in over done territory.

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Zed

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Junior v Senior Goldminers > All in all the speculative end of the market has held up really well against the senior miners. People are punting on gold here, the lottery tickets are being bought.

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Zed

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TNX > The talk is that 2% starts to break things. Based on this chart I would say that we test 2% in a matter of weeks. The Fed to the rescue?

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Zed

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PS> The down trend suggests that 2.5% is the real limit as far as breaking shit goes. Over that and we are looking like a trend change might finally be in play.
 

Zed

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When you think about it...


... could be a part of a framing the kids for anything that unfolds in silver.

A Reddit forum founder who got banned from Wall Street Bets says the group is tired of talking about GameStop - and that they really were behind the silver short-squeeze​


Could this be setting up for some good old fashion scapegoating?
 

Uglytruth

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One crazy guy I listen to from time to time keeps saying silver will pass gold in price. But he don't say what those prices will be. Simply to many things use unreclaimable silver as an industrial metal and gold not so much. Also says things are going to get much worse.
 

gnome

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One crazy guy I listen to from time to time keeps saying silver will pass gold in price. But he don't say what those prices will be. Simply to many things use unreclaimable silver as an industrial metal and gold not so much. Also says things are going to get much worse.
Anything silver can do in electronics, gold can do better.
If silver surpasses gold, manufacturers will swap metals, though obviously that doesn't happen overnight.
 

gnome

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TNX > The talk is that 2% starts to break things. Based on this chart I would say that we test 2% in a matter of weeks. The Fed to the rescue?

View attachment 205156

The real US economy is so broken, what can the fed do? Tighten monetary policy and they break the only thing that is working, the flood of liquidity. If the fed really starts to lose control, could ECB and BOJ step in to devalue their currencies and stabilize dollar and yields?
 

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I just can't shake the feeling many are going to loose everything and then some. Most own nothing but debt already.
Will these be opportunities of to much "stuff" and no money / currency to buy with? Thinking land, auto's, etc.
 

solarion

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Anything silver can do in electronics, gold can do better.
If silver surpasses gold, manufacturers will swap metals, though obviously that doesn't happen overnight.
That's just flat out wrong. Gold is the third best conductor after copper, which is far superior to gold...and neither is an adequate substitute for silver which is the best conductor of both heat and electricity.

1616364952671.png
 

Zed

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Goldhedge

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Right now bitcoin is the pressure relief valve. It's the Nouveau riche bauble. The 'in thing'... Glitzy.

You have the elite quietly escaping into bitcoin, art, PM's etc. They know. They see. They pay people to 'see' for them.

Elon was probably buying in for some time before 'announcing' his purchase.

It's the little people who will rush for the exits once they realize "Yes Virgina, we can have another Great Depression" and the SHTF.

Food scarcity has a tendency to wake folks up.

If you look around what do YOU see? Homeless camps? Never saw that when I was a kid. That's right out of the 30's.

Some would say we're already there and it's just that MMT is keeping the balloon afloat a little longer.


PM's will survive and come out on the other side of any EMP attack. Not as portable, but very handy in barter.

I fully expect to see it in my lifetime.
 

Zed

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The real US economy is so broken, what can the fed do? Tighten monetary policy and they break the only thing that is working, the flood of liquidity. If the fed really starts to lose control, could ECB and BOJ step in to devalue their currencies and stabilize dollar and yields?

They can't tighten, yet the bond market is looking at this as inflationary and it's just possible that it does it's job and tightens for them. I guess they can print like crazy and artificially hold rates down. If they go that route they will end up owning all their debt. That is unless people are willing to go deeper into bonds believing that negative interest rates will be the norm. I'm thinking that commodities make a lot more sense at this point but maybe I have that wrong.

Depending on how hard the Fed goes this looks like stagflation maybe an inflationary depression. Once we've been into that territory I have to think that the Fed just has no more that it can do. They either go full Zimbabwe, and we know how that ends, well they go full Volcker and crush the debt taking the pain up front. Either out is going to be a disaster politically and a train wreck economically. I just can't see that there's an easy way out.
 
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Zed

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I hate my speech to text. You read out a sentence, it types out the words correctly. Then after a few seconds it looks at the context, makes some erroneous decision and completely changes the words. You seem to get this interpretation of what most people might be trying to say. Which of course is a disaster when it comes to GIM. Long story short, if my posts don't make sense you can assume it's speech-to-text. Just point it out to me and I'll edited it!
 

Uglytruth

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Friend priced a steel carport last fall. Now he wants to put it up. 30% increase.
Guy that puts on roofs say steel roofing has gone up twice already.
No inflation here...... move along.
 

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I just can't see that there's an easy way out.
I'm not as adept as you guys and charting stuff, but even I can see this coming.

Volker period was inflationary. Made 16% on $3k CD at the bank. I didn't know what a good deal that was at the time.

Still fiat money though.
 

Zed

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We had a first bout of stagflation coming into the Volcker period. I inflation with low to no growth. I think that's probably what we facing now. If not no growth then outright contraction.
 
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Zed

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Friend priced a steel carport last fall. Now he wants to put it up. 30% increase.
Guy that puts on roofs say steel roofing has gone up twice already.
No inflation here...... move along.

Yeah it's getting hard to hide. No matter what the dodgy CPI says.
 

Goldhedge

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So Zed you are on holiday? You going anywhere on that island or sticking close to home?
 
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Zed

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So Zed you are on holiday? You going anywhere on that island or sticking close to home?

Hell no, just for fun we are driving right through the flood zones and on up to QLD. I have to make a family wedding... but in the mean time my mum has ended up in intensive care. To think we were worried about Covid stuffing the trip up!
 

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They can't tighten, yet the bond market is looking at this as inflationary and it's just possible that it does it's job and tightens for them. I guess they can print like crazy and artificially hold rates down. If they go that route they will end up owning all their debt. That is unless people are willing to go deeper into bonds believing that negative interest rates will be the norm. I'm thinking that commodities make a lot more sense at this point but maybe I have that wrong.

Depending on how hard the Fed goes this looks like stagflation maybe an inflationary depression. Once we've been into that territory I have to think that the Fed just has no more that it can do. They either go full Zimbabwe, and we know how that ends, well they go full Volcker and crush the debt taking the pain up front. Either out is going to be a disaster politically and a train wreck economically. I just can't see that there's an easy way out.
You may be forgetting the USA will allow the Federal Reserve Note to self destruct. All that gold in Fort Knox will be monetized into real money, not fiat currency.
There’s one round left in the chamber. . .
 

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Still $4-6 premium on 100 oz bars, spot silver down 50 cents. Makes sense.

The amount of make believe is orders of magnitude larger then we can 8magine. I think Silver is hardly the only thing that's been created out of thin air.
 

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Zed

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You may be forgetting the USA will allow the Federal Reserve Note to self destruct. All that gold in Fort Knox will be monetized into real money, not fiat currency.
There’s one round left in the chamber. . .

What do you mean self destruct?

They will want rates low and the market could have other ideas. The ONLY thing they can do to keep them low is buy them all, default is off the table. If they did buy them all they could put a line through the debt and start again... but it would be @ higher rates. If they did buy them all it would be flat out monetization of the debt and it would be highly inflationary.

As for the gold...

1. What gold? No one has seen it for ever so that is a legit concern.

2. They'd need more, not less, to inspire some confidence in the currency... mind you if they keep rates low against the market confidence will be shot, maybe even to the point that reserve status becomes shaky. I dunno on that point, you still have the deepest financial system.

So I dunno that they have much they can really do... practically, besides bluff.
 

Zed

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Sun cycles and temperatures diverged about 70 years ago.

View attachment 205287

The weather patterns where I am have done almost exactly what you'd expect into a grand solar minimum. I gonna bet on the sun you can go with this time it's different.
 

Zed

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Sun cycles and temperatures diverged about 70 years ago.

View attachment 205287

+ that chart starts well after the last grand solar minimum... I will guess it is cherry picked data at the best, they do that crap all the time.
 

Zed

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Sun cycles and temperatures diverged about 70 years ago.

View attachment 205287

Yeah... cherry picked, starts in a natural upswing in temperature, one that so far has produced cooler temps that some prior to it. Frankly that shit just pisses me off, it means nothing.
 

savvydon

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Silver is taking a beating out of proportion to the other PMs in Asian trading. Has the smell of TPTB doing a little advance legwork trying to keep sentiment down as the week opens. Maybe the tinfoil is permanently stuck to my head but this crap seems awfully predictable at this point.