The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

[Goldhedge]

Looks like real estate is the new gold. Makes sense with all this job loss, no?

Only if you can pay for it outright... carrying a note might bit you in the end....

 

[Carrion Crow]

Only if you can pay for it outright... carrying a note might bit you in the end....

I've wondered about that. With hefty inflation (which seems inevitable) won't the price of real estate also go way up?
Current 10 yr. mortgage rate is at 2.036%. Inflation is going to be way higher than that.

 

[Goldhedge]

I've wondered about that. With hefty inflation (which seems inevitable) won't the price of real estate also go way up?
Current 10 yr. mortgage rate is at 2.036%. Inflation is going to be way higher than that.

Never say never, but yes historically, real estate goes up and is a hedge against 'inflation' (which as, we all know is rampant money printing).

However, if you have a mortgage and lose your ability to pay on it.... you're just as exposed as everyone else.

 

[D-FENZ]

I've wondered about that. With hefty inflation (which seems inevitable) won't the price of real estate also go way up?
Current 10 yr. mortgage rate is at 2.036%. Inflation is going to be way higher than that.

If you have an income stream to service a loan you're foolish not to lock in a 2.36% mortgage on at least one place. Especially if you're expecting inflation to outrun that 2.36%. And the bigger the better.

 

[Zed]

Noosa

 

[Zed]

Never say never, but yes historically, real estate goes up and is a hedge against 'inflation' (which as, we all know is rampant money printing).

However, if you have a mortgage and lose your ability to pay on it.... you're just as exposed as everyone else.

Typically it lags because rents can't reprice quickly enough to service major price growth. Typically...?! we seem to be in a brave new world and it leads... so WTF over?

 

[Zed]

If you have an income stream to service a loan you're foolish not to lock in a 2.36% mortgage on at least one place. Especially if you're expecting inflation to outrun that 2.36%. And the bigger the better.

Locking in fixed long term could make it all make more sense but we can't do that.5 years Max and at a penalty.

 

[Zed]

The Fringe sentiment indicator just hit 0.

 

[Jodster]

The Fringe sentiment indicator just hit 0.

Care to explain that one, Zed? And how I can profit from it?

 

[bemac]

He's saying we're just flat out all lunatics now.

 

[Zed]

Care to explain that one, Zed? And how I can profit from it?

Virtually no one here, probably means that gold will take off after Easter.

Not an exact science but better than climate science!

 

[Zed]

He's saying we're just flat out all lunatics now.

I'm thinking of going full time, got a nice little straight jacket picked out. It will probably boost my income if I discard my last shreds of rationality and join the fray.

 

[Lancers32]

Virtually no one here, probably means that gold will take off after Easter.

Not an exact science but better than climate science!

Fingers are tired from posting the last couple of days. Everyone who was going to buy has already bought. Any dips next week are buys.

 

[Lancers32]

Democrats have two more they can push through with no R support.

'Every step of the way': McConnell pledges battle over Biden infrastructure plan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -President Joe Biden on Thursday faced the prospect of all-out political war with Republicans over his $2 trillion blueprint to revitalize America's infrastructure, with a top Democrat also offering only partial support over how to pay for the package. A day after the...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Zed]

Enjoy your Easter break folks!

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[gnome]

dollar/yen near multi-year support, just a bit oversold

 

[Zed]

Adam Hamilton:

The bottom line is the major silver miners just achieved some of their best financial results ever in Q4, despite waning production. Their revenues, earnings, and operating cash flows soared to at-least-19-quarter record highs on better prevailing silver and gold prices. And that massive profits growth is likely to accelerate even more in Q1, with silver continuing to grind higher on balance despite gold's extended correction.


That will force valuations dramatically lower, leaving this sector more attractive to mainstream institutional investors. And silver and silver stocks will increasingly return to favor as the next bull uplegs in gold and gold stocks grow. So this silver realm will likely see major capital inflows in coming months, catapulting silver-stock prices much higher. Big coming gains are totally justified given silver miners' strong fundamentals.

 

[Jodster]

Fingers are tired from posting the last couple of days. Everyone who was going to buy has already bought. Any dips next week are buys.

They’re buys only if you haven’t already bought all that you can buy. I’d like to buy on some dips next week but I can’t buy more than I’ve already bought.

 

[gnome]

In search of the great non-correlated portfolio

 

[Goldhedge]

"This Looks Like The Stock Market Peak" Warns Macro Analyst | Wolf Richter​

Macro analyst Wolf Richter is confident we are living in the largest asset price bubble ever blown. And the recent staggering run-up in prices in stock, housing, commodities and Bitcoin convince him that we are currently at the market's peak...to be followed by a painful correction.

 

[perry]

"This Looks Like The Stock Market Peak" Warns Macro Analyst | Wolf Richter​

Macro analyst Wolf Richter is confident we are living in the largest asset price bubble ever blown. And the recent staggering run-up in prices in stock, housing, commodities and Bitcoin convince him that we are currently at the market's peak...to be followed by a painful correction.

I think dow can climb up to $36,k before anything happens. Too much stimulus happening right now

 

[gnome]

VIX lowest since Feb 2020.
Maybe a contrarian trade to be made.

 

[Jodster]

I'm pretty sure we've passed the bottom in junior and intermediate mining shares. I'm having intermittent FOMO panics all day.

 

[Lancers32]

We are many months off the bottom in most of the miners I would even think about buying. September and November were the lows the pros who were afraid to buy then are crowing about picking this recent bottom as the lows. Take a look at CDE SILJ HL.

 

[Jodster]

We are many months off the bottom in most of the miners I would even think about buying. September and November were the lows the pros who were afraid to buy then are crowing about picking this recent bottom as the lows. Take a look at CDE SILJ HL.

Don't forget the amateurs that were "afraid to buy then and are now crowing about picking the recent bottom". I believe last week would have been a good entry point for many of the stocks I picked. But I tried to catch that falling knife, and failed.
Lancers, you feel there's another leg down overall?

 

[Lancers32]

You can never rule it out.

 

[Goldhedge]

 

[Lancers32]

You pretty much have to have some participation in the metals here. Once Silver crosses $30 all in. Bitcoin might trade a great deal higher before the next bear market but the easy gains have already been made.

 

[bemac]

PSLV gets so little love.

 

[bemac]

I know I said a while back I got out of everything paper, but I changed my mind like 48 hours later. Those are the 4 I diversified into, and so glad I didn't just put it all in PSLV.

 

[Lancers32]

PSLV will be fine. You didn't expect a tracker fund to keep up with mining stocks did you?

 

[bemac]

No, I did expect it to be less volatile. Seriously, I'm about even on the other 3, still down ~9% on it.

 

[jelly]

The "gold guru" Greg Weldon has closed his gold subscription service. Sign of a bottom?
Claims he doesn't have time for it with his main paid service taking all of his recent time.

 

[Lancers32]

Who?

 

[jelly]

Zed, what's your take on the dollar here? Rally over and resuming downtrend?

 

[Goldhedge]

Didn't PSLV change their prospectus because they weren't able to purchase silver....?

 

[Zed]

Hawks Nest Port Stephens.

 

[Goldhedge]

Is the water warm?

 

[Zed]

Is the water warm?

The water is warm ish, we've had floods on the central New South Wales coast and there's a lot of fresh water in it. Normally the water would be turquoise in those photographs. Today it's the tea colour of the lakes upstream from Port Stephens. I'm not complaining though, it's keeping the kids busy for hours and hours at a stretch!