• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

Retired
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 28, 2010
Messages
70,132
Reaction score
155,285
Location
Rocky Mountains

Fed Kills the Economy – Michael Pento​

video at bottom
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zed

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,213
Reaction score
24,072
What does that mean?

The daily pattern breaks down (out) on a close below 30K (or near enough) which would indicate that the bear flag has a high probability of being a valid pattern which in turn brings the ~10/11K target into play. Over ~30K and the bullish case (from here) has a shot. Looks weak to my eyes but hey...

My
2c FWIW.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Another muted day in the miners with Silver up.
 

savvydon

Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,512
Reaction score
5,679
Another muted day in the miners with Silver up.
The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...
 

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,251
Reaction score
55,447

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,213
Reaction score
24,072
The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...

My head can't see the bear case here aside from a potential general liquidity drought drying it up for all short term, my gut says we are seeing chart painting, the charts tell me that lower is a real risk.

I think there is a sharp move coming and a strangle or similar is the way to play it.
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,275
Reaction score
12,269
Location
Deep Underground Bunker

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
GIM Hall Of Fame
Mother Lode
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,213
Reaction score
24,072
I just re-did the BTC downside projection using highs and lows instead of closes, including this latest low. It comes in around the 2020 low @ ~4500! (~3800 was the low). Using closes it now sits @ ~9K.

Using closes is the more conservative way of setting these targets. Conservative might not be the go considering it is BTC.
 

Jodster

Always wrong
Silver Miner
Survivor
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
2,348
Reaction score
3,363
The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...
Same here.
I bought the dip, and it dipped some more.
So I bought the second dip, and it dipped again.
I went all-in and it dipped even further.
So we have two options; wait it out with our current positions, or liquidate and buy at the bottom. You know how catching a falling knife goes. . .
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
SILJ same closing price the last 5 days within a few cents of course. I think whichever way it goes follow. Stop under $15
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Fockers sold the miners on the open again.


 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
CDE kicked in the nutz at the close.
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
Chicos FAS (CHS) was a stock I was very happy with. Unfortunately my WTT system had me sell the stock this past Monday because it fell below the stop loss level. In the week since, CHS moved up and almost touched the line I labeled "Double" because it would have been a double at that level had I not sold. The craziest thing of all is that although you can't see it on this chart, CHS has given another new buy signal and so I will be purchasing it again at Monday's open. [Along with 4 other stocks.]

[That doesn't feel so good, but I must follow my rules.]

Vhqtratg.png
 
Last edited:

Uglytruth

Mother Lode Found
Sr Midas Sup +++
Survivor
Mother Lode
Joined
Apr 6, 2011
Messages
22,251
Reaction score
55,447
Chicos FAS (CHS) was a stock I was very happy with. Unfortunately my WTT system had me sell the stock this past Monday because it fell below the stop loss level. In the week since, CHS moved up and almost touched the line I labelled "Double" because it would have been a double at that level had I not sold. The craziest thing of all is that although you can't see it on this chart, CHS has given another new buy signal and so I will be purchasing it again at Monday's open. [Along with 4 other stocks.]

[That doesn't feel so good, but I must follow my rules.]

View attachment 215794
You never go broke taking profits! Feel good a bout it.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Speaking of insanity.

 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Careful if miners don't hold today's bottoms. SILJ $14.80 support $14.75 or we go very deep I think.
 

savvydon

Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,512
Reaction score
5,679
Careful if miners don't hold today's bottoms. SILJ $14.80 support $14.75 or we go very deep I think.
It is looking pretty bleak out there for the miners at the moment. The dealer bullion market appears to have softened over the past week or so as well. We are certainly at a crossroads for the time being. I agree that if we stay soft then there is a good bit of downside possibly ahead.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Four months old already but so is most of the stuff out there. I mean up only right? Bearish to say the least. You can start around 12 minutes and get the gist of it. Anything can happen. I have nothing on anywhere at this point.

 

JayDubya

pies klasy robotniczej
Midas Member
Midas Supporter
Joined
Apr 5, 2010
Messages
7,818
Reaction score
15,922
$1200 gold in 2023? Guess I'll sit on my wallet for a little while
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
That's funny. Even before I watched that video I was thinking of pulling my stops on all things metal up to 10% off the recent daily high and let things fall where they may.

[Nine year cycle. My man Oliver still says it's a good setup in the metals.]
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zed

LogicFusion

New Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2021
Messages
14
Reaction score
3
Martin Armstrong is a very bright guy but someone needs to tell him you cannot collect unemployment if you quit your job.


He learns what to say by parroting. Next time he will get it right because you taught him.
See link:
Martin Armstrong's Informant Behind the Curtain
 

Voodoo

Midas Member
Midas Member
Sr Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Mar 31, 2010
Messages
7,275
Reaction score
12,269
Location
Deep Underground Bunker

LogicFusion

New Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2021
Messages
14
Reaction score
3
Hmm, signed up 4 days ago and now dissing him in two different threads, neither of which is a thread actually about him... But, definitely not a troll.:computer:
Get out as quickly as you can. What else can I say? You are a fresh victim. This is how he actually sees and treats his clients. As victims. I have had hundreds of hours of conversations with him. He is a hardcore criminal. Why do you think people are writing the warnings? To make fools out of themselves?
Here is the proof that they are leaving faster than he can get fresh ones:
ask-socrates.com Competitive Analysis, Marketing Mix and Traffic
 
Last edited:

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
The War on Reality


Satire. [Or is it?]
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Tempted to take on a bit of SILJ here around $14.75 for at least a move up to $15.40.
 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
The War on Reality


Satire. [Or is it?]

I can walk around Walmart without a mask now. Seems like things are loosening up at least in my neck of the woods.
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
I can walk around Walmart without a mask now. Seems like things are loosening up at least in my neck of the woods.
We went to SC last week. It was REALLY opened up. NC is also opening up, not up to SC standards, but getting there. The author lives in a large city (Berlin?) in Germany, so he may be seeing something different.
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
Here is my distribution of trade outcomes for open and closed trades. [For my Weekend Trend Trader system.]

I always center the "bell curve" at $0. Then I place the left tail to contain/include my biggest loss. I set the right tail to the same so that the bell curve is symmetrical left to right. I have evolved my thinking over time to realize that the only trades that "matter" or are worth getting even a little excited about are the trades that fall outside the bell curve. They make all the difference. The other trades, while necessary, do not make a difference because by and large the small wins and small losses tend to cancel each other out.

Only the trades outside of the bell curve matter. I did a little math. This chart shows 8 trades outside the bell curve and a complete total of 97 trades. So currently the math has 8.24% of *all* trades outside the bell curve. I have also done the math when it was about 7%.

I am surprised that that percentage is so high, and I realize there is no guarantee it will stay at 7 to 8%. But that seems pretty good to me.

My actual results have been fairly flat in 2021 so far, though not without the ups and downs. [The ups and downs that bring us back to flat.]

Window_and_2020_Positions-13.jpg
 
Last edited:

savvydon

Platinum Bling
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,512
Reaction score
5,679
Tempted to take on a bit of SILJ here around $14.75 for at least a move up to $15.40.
The repeated poundings we have been seeing look like a possible wash out. Might be worth placing a bet...
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,523
Reaction score
4,431
Hell, I don't know.

 

Lancers32

You know...the thing
Site Supporter ++
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
5,991
Reaction score
8,506
Location
NC
Need to change that boy's name to Brophy.