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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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China appears to be deadly serious about canning BTC inside China. This looks like it is driven from the top. I'm thinking this will result in BTC in that ~10K area. This should feed into the rotation into gold theme IMO.

Watching...
 

Zed

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Nervy but flat on the open for gold stocks down here. Trying to establish direction.
 
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JayDubya

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China appears to be deadly serious about canning BTC inside China. This looks like it is driven from the top. I'm thinking this will result in BTC in that ~10K area. This should feed into the rotation into gold theme IMO.
Are you a buyer of BTC if this happens?
 

Zed

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Are you a buyer of BTC if this happens?

I will tell you when/if we get there. If we do 10K I think this will be down for a year or more so there will be lots of time.
 

Zed

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I'm starting to get that 'balls in my throat' fear response with metals/miners at the moment. It may mean that we are nearing a good entry point.

It's normally a good sign!
 

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Weak response by the miners now giving it back.
 

savvydon

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Weak response by the miners now giving it back.
Miners weren't buying the pop in metals this morning and now that PM gains are being given back they are puking. Morale looks pretty rough at the moment. (I know that's how I feel, anyway)
 

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I smell a strong Liquidity crisis just over the hill. Banks and Dr. Copper are really weak looking. Gold and the miners also look pretty rough. Of course the Reverse Repo crisis is spiking to new highs every day as well. The USD will probably also rip higher.
 
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Lancers32

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All the premium has bled out of BITW. If you are interested in a broader participation rather than GBTC or ETHE.

 

Zed

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I smell a strong Liquidity crisis just over the hill. Banks and Dr. Copper are really leak looking. Gold and the miners also look pretty rough. Of course the Reverse Repo crisis is spiking to new highs every day as well. The USD will probably also rip higher.

Yeah, I was listening to a market prognosticator a while back calling for a major stock fall at the end of the year. He said he expected gold will go with to start then turn up early.
 

Zed

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BTC still in dead cat bounce territory. Watch for that sub 30K daily close.
 

Zed

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Silver consolidating in what could be a bear flag, projects the $23 area if it breaks lower. On the weekly the bottom of the range is ~22.65 on closing with a 21.x possible. If that falls out it would have to be a trading buy. Some puts might be prudent insurance around here, just a passing thought.
 

Zed

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Gold short term kinda looks like it's going to try the 173x/4x area. It is a possible bear flag that projects 1632 if it breaks lower!
 

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Fed Kills the Economy – Michael Pento​

video at bottom
 
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Zed

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What does that mean?

The daily pattern breaks down (out) on a close below 30K (or near enough) which would indicate that the bear flag has a high probability of being a valid pattern which in turn brings the ~10/11K target into play. Over ~30K and the bullish case (from here) has a shot. Looks weak to my eyes but hey...

My
2c FWIW.
 

Lancers32

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Another muted day in the miners with Silver up.
 

savvydon

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Another muted day in the miners with Silver up.
The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...
 

Uglytruth

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Zed

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The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...

My head can't see the bear case here aside from a potential general liquidity drought drying it up for all short term, my gut says we are seeing chart painting, the charts tell me that lower is a real risk.

I think there is a sharp move coming and a strangle or similar is the way to play it.
 

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Zed

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I just re-did the BTC downside projection using highs and lows instead of closes, including this latest low. It comes in around the 2020 low @ ~4500! (~3800 was the low). Using closes it now sits @ ~9K.

Using closes is the more conservative way of setting these targets. Conservative might not be the go considering it is BTC.
 

Jodster

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The miners aren't buying this managed, massaged crap. They are waiting to see the markets actually speak up and say something. I hit my last stink bid on a miner today. I'm 90% in. From an investing standpoint I feel like I want to crawl off into a bathtub and slit my wrists. Hoping the darkest hour is right before the dawn, but I think some of the ideas Zed presented above are more realistic. So it goes. You never counts yer money while you're sittin' at the table...
Same here.
I bought the dip, and it dipped some more.
So I bought the second dip, and it dipped again.
I went all-in and it dipped even further.
So we have two options; wait it out with our current positions, or liquidate and buy at the bottom. You know how catching a falling knife goes. . .
 

Lancers32

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SILJ same closing price the last 5 days within a few cents of course. I think whichever way it goes follow. Stop under $15
 

Lancers32

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Fockers sold the miners on the open again.


 

Lancers32

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CDE kicked in the nutz at the close.
 

dpong

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Chicos FAS (CHS) was a stock I was very happy with. Unfortunately my WTT system had me sell the stock this past Monday because it fell below the stop loss level. In the week since, CHS moved up and almost touched the line I labeled "Double" because it would have been a double at that level had I not sold. The craziest thing of all is that although you can't see it on this chart, CHS has given another new buy signal and so I will be purchasing it again at Monday's open. [Along with 4 other stocks.]

[That doesn't feel so good, but I must follow my rules.]

Vhqtratg.png
 
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Uglytruth

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Chicos FAS (CHS) was a stock I was very happy with. Unfortunately my WTT system had me sell the stock this past Monday because it fell below the stop loss level. In the week since, CHS moved up and almost touched the line I labelled "Double" because it would have been a double at that level had I not sold. The craziest thing of all is that although you can't see it on this chart, CHS has given another new buy signal and so I will be purchasing it again at Monday's open. [Along with 4 other stocks.]

[That doesn't feel so good, but I must follow my rules.]

View attachment 215794
You never go broke taking profits! Feel good a bout it.
 

Lancers32

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Speaking of insanity.

 

Lancers32

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Careful if miners don't hold today's bottoms. SILJ $14.80 support $14.75 or we go very deep I think.
 

savvydon

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Careful if miners don't hold today's bottoms. SILJ $14.80 support $14.75 or we go very deep I think.
It is looking pretty bleak out there for the miners at the moment. The dealer bullion market appears to have softened over the past week or so as well. We are certainly at a crossroads for the time being. I agree that if we stay soft then there is a good bit of downside possibly ahead.
 

Lancers32

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Four months old already but so is most of the stuff out there. I mean up only right? Bearish to say the least. You can start around 12 minutes and get the gist of it. Anything can happen. I have nothing on anywhere at this point.