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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

JayDubya

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$1200 gold in 2023? Guess I'll sit on my wallet for a little while
 

dpong

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That's funny. Even before I watched that video I was thinking of pulling my stops on all things metal up to 10% off the recent daily high and let things fall where they may.

[Nine year cycle. My man Oliver still says it's a good setup in the metals.]
 

LogicFusion

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Martin Armstrong is a very bright guy but someone needs to tell him you cannot collect unemployment if you quit your job.


He learns what to say by parroting. Next time he will get it right because you taught him.
See link:
Martin Armstrong's Informant Behind the Curtain
 

Voodoo

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LogicFusion

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Hmm, signed up 4 days ago and now dissing him in two different threads, neither of which is a thread actually about him... But, definitely not a troll.:computer:
Get out as quickly as you can. What else can I say? You are a fresh victim. This is how he actually sees and treats his clients. As victims. I have had hundreds of hours of conversations with him. He is a hardcore criminal. Why do you think people are writing the warnings? To make fools out of themselves?
Here is the proof that they are leaving faster than he can get fresh ones:
ask-socrates.com Competitive Analysis, Marketing Mix and Traffic
 
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dpong

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The War on Reality


Satire. [Or is it?]
 

Lancers32

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Tempted to take on a bit of SILJ here around $14.75 for at least a move up to $15.40.
 

Lancers32

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The War on Reality


Satire. [Or is it?]

I can walk around Walmart without a mask now. Seems like things are loosening up at least in my neck of the woods.
 

dpong

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I can walk around Walmart without a mask now. Seems like things are loosening up at least in my neck of the woods.
We went to SC last week. It was REALLY opened up. NC is also opening up, not up to SC standards, but getting there. The author lives in a large city (Berlin?) in Germany, so he may be seeing something different.
 

dpong

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Here is my distribution of trade outcomes for open and closed trades. [For my Weekend Trend Trader system.]

I always center the "bell curve" at $0. Then I place the left tail to contain/include my biggest loss. I set the right tail to the same so that the bell curve is symmetrical left to right. I have evolved my thinking over time to realize that the only trades that "matter" or are worth getting even a little excited about are the trades that fall outside the bell curve. They make all the difference. The other trades, while necessary, do not make a difference because by and large the small wins and small losses tend to cancel each other out.

Only the trades outside of the bell curve matter. I did a little math. This chart shows 8 trades outside the bell curve and a complete total of 97 trades. So currently the math has 8.24% of *all* trades outside the bell curve. I have also done the math when it was about 7%.

I am surprised that that percentage is so high, and I realize there is no guarantee it will stay at 7 to 8%. But that seems pretty good to me.

My actual results have been fairly flat in 2021 so far, though not without the ups and downs. [The ups and downs that bring us back to flat.]

Window_and_2020_Positions-13.jpg
 
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savvydon

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Tempted to take on a bit of SILJ here around $14.75 for at least a move up to $15.40.
The repeated poundings we have been seeing look like a possible wash out. Might be worth placing a bet...
 

dpong

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Hell, I don't know.

 

Lancers32

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Need to change that boy's name to Brophy.
 

dpong

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Maybe. What can you say?
I think most of Oliver's work is aimed at discerning long term trends and trend changes. The key here being *long term*. So when he says such and such is "about to happen" he doesn't necessarily mean this month, next month, this quarter or next quarter.

His work is very good and I suspect he will eventually be proven to have been correct. But I have no idea *when* that will happen.
 

spinalcracker

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If I had a dollar for every video with someone saying gold is about to go up...


I can remember when gold was $290 an ounce and some of them prognosticators were saying it’s going up..........and it did.

I guess the real challenge is finding the correct prognosticator.
 

Lancers32

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I think most of Oliver's work is aimed at discerning long term trends and trend changes. The key here being *long term*. So when he says such and such is "about to happen" he doesn't necessarily mean this month, next month, this quarter or next quarter.

His work is very good and I suspect he will eventually be proven to have been correct. But I have no idea *when* that will happen.

I understand but he did say $200 Silver by the end of 2022. He can't back off that bold prediction so I imagine that is to be his stance for at least the next couple of years regardless of price movement.
 

Lancers32

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I can remember when gold was $290 an ounce and some of them prognosticators were saying it’s going up..........and it did.

I guess the real challenge is finding the correct prognosticator.
Even the very best are wrong at the absolute worst times. Russell and Dines. Dines had his subs stuck in Uranium last cycle. Russell was buying Gold on the rally in 1980 just before the secondary high in September. The guys on Twitter and YouTube could not hold these guy's jockstraps. You want to follow them with your money be my guest.
 

Lancers32

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SILJ never closed below $14.75 if you are a bull it is a buy on weakness.
 

dpong

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Lancers32

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IF the DX catches a bid it is hard to imagine this would be PM positive. Wait and see from here for me.

E5OyrIPVgAIR0hy.jpg
 

gnome

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Given inflation, how hard is it to say the price of just about any commodity will go up?
Just about. I'm kinda guessing whale oil isn't gonna recover. Coal is looking pretty iffy, too.
 

Lancers32

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Jackie Chan no likee.




jackie_chan_0.jpg
 

Lancers32

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DB from Sprott proves that you can have it both ways. Goes up he told you goes down he warned ya. :hang:

Gold chart from DB from Sprott.

E5Ywo_YXMAEISQ-.png
 

perry

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1500 before 3000, what do the odds makers have a say on that?
 

Lancers32

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Savage


 

Lancers32

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Only one stock and it is fairly thinly traded but it has not made a new high. Critical support is just under last week's lows. At this point I really have no clue abut the direction of anything.

UQzc6cPv.png
 

savvydon

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Only one stock and it is fairly thinly traded but it has not made a new high. Critical support is just under last week's lows. At this point I really have no clue abut the direction of anything.

View attachment 216849
There seems to be quite the tug or war going on between bulls and bears in the PM space at the moment. Direction is difficult to discern, and seems to hinge partly, at least in the short term, of related parameters such as the USD. Fundamentals seem to continue to scream 'Bull' from the mountaintop but we have seen a powerful flood of downward pressure from those who stand to benefit from stifling the canary in the coal mine. I got crushed on my June slv options but have a bunch of stacked calls going out 18 months. Time to sit back and see which way the pendulum swings. If we go down from here I turn my efforts back toward stacking. If we move up I mobilize my efforts to multiply paper profits. I'm sure there are more dynamic ways to invest, but I'm going to put my money where I have at least a modicum of experience and knowledge. Too many other things I'd rather spend my time doing than learning many markets. 2c
 

jelly

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There seems to be quite the tug or war going on between bulls and bears in the PM space at the moment. Direction is difficult to discern, and seems to hinge partly, at least in the short term, of related parameters such as the USD. Fundamentals seem to continue to scream 'Bull' from the mountaintop but we have seen a powerful flood of downward pressure from those who stand to benefit from stifling the canary in the coal mine. I got crushed on my June slv options but have a bunch of stacked calls going out 18 months. Time to sit back and see which way the pendulum swings. If we go down from here I turn my efforts back toward stacking. If we move up I mobilize my efforts to multiply paper profits. I'm sure there are more dynamic ways to invest, but I'm going to put my money where I have at least a modicum of experience and knowledge. Too many other things I'd rather spend my time doing than learning many markets. 2c
I think this goes on for the rest of the summer. Myself, I’m not expecting fireworks until the fall.
I haven’t been in the markets as long as many here have been, but if there’s one thing I know, it’s that silver likes to disappoint before it dazzles. I expect this beautiful several months long bullish consolidation in silver that everyone is noticing, to fail. Why? Because that’s what a silver does, it disappoints first. No technical or fundamental reasons, just the nature of silver…But then a few weeks/months later it will turn around and rocket higher, after everyone has thrown in the towel and given up.
Just my 2 cents.
 

gnome

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There seems to be quite the tug or war going on between bulls and bears in the PM space at the moment. Direction is difficult to discern, and seems to hinge partly, at least in the short term, of related parameters such as the USD. Fundamentals seem to continue to scream 'Bull' from the mountaintop but we have seen a powerful flood of downward pressure from those who stand to benefit from stifling the canary in the coal mine. I got crushed on my June slv options but have a bunch of stacked calls going out 18 months. Time to sit back and see which way the pendulum swings. If we go down from here I turn my efforts back toward stacking. If we move up I mobilize my efforts to multiply paper profits. I'm sure there are more dynamic ways to invest, but I'm going to put my money where I have at least a modicum of experience and knowledge. Too many other things I'd rather spend my time doing than learning many markets. 2c
Fed minutes Wednesday. Probably get a move one way or another.
 

gnome

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I think this goes on for the rest of the summer. Myself, I’m not expecting fireworks until the fall.
I haven’t been in the markets as long as many here have been, but if there’s one thing I know, it’s that silver likes to disappoint before it dazzles. I expect this beautiful several months long bullish consolidation in silver that everyone is noticing, to fail. Why? Because that’s what a silver does, it disappoints first. No technical or fundamental reasons, just the nature of silver…But then a few weeks/months later it will turn around and rocket higher, after everyone has thrown in the towel and given up.
Just my 2 cents.
I'm mostly just waiting for Silver Sammy to throw in the towel.