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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Brandt Renko BTC

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dpong

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If you want to make the gods laugh, make a plan.

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Zed

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Who could resist nothing for free?

Yeah... I dunno but the classic technical projections seem to get worse as time goes on. I can't see it personally, unless the network collapses under its own weight (inflation in power costs v power consumption leads to a shut down?), but I'd have thought the diehards would see value @ some lower level whatever crap happens.

It is looking like we will find out in the next few weeks or so, and the next floor is? (19K-20K)?

BTW Robbinhood says that crypto and stock activity is low, I guess we need more stock stimmy cheques!
 

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Silver seems like it is approaching a flush out. Premiums are collapsing and all the Reddit Apes are busy fondling their bananas.

Maybe getting near time to make a stand? Don't listen to me I got knocked flat.

A close below 24.75 this week puts the low 20's on the table and we will not be looking healthy unless silver tops 25.50 or so by week end.

JMDAO
 

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GDXJ looks to be closing below my 10% stop loss.

[That will make me 100% flat the miners.]

View attachment 218493

IMO this is it for the Juniors, a bad close this week and it's looking horrible. A bounce into week end and its looking like a big old trend test "kiss and go". Needs to hold @ 43 IMO.

1626828344367.png
 

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GDX weekly with GDXJ overlaid. It's a better picture that is pointing more toward capitulation in the junior's and kind of supporting the "kiss and go" idea.

Who really knows but it has a now or never feel to it.

1626828675488.png
 
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You can draw your lines wherever you want.

View attachment 218575

Two lines for you... the week isn't done so the first support is still in play as a possibility. GDXJ in the back. Silver was ~$22 the last time it SILJ was here, silver was ~$18 @ the last time we hit the lower marked support. Either silver collapses or this is miner capitulation. It is summer... this should be a low... 2c FWIW.

1626828902857.png
 

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HUI Gold ratio is @ a relative low. Nearing a place that has found support in the past.

1626829388856.png
 

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GDXJ/GDX ratio is lower than it has been other than in the 2020 blood bath. Given gold's price a lot has to happen to justify this level of pessimism. I'm going to go with gold stock capitulation in play. Can it get worse... yeah, I'm sure, but there is most probably a good buy coming up here.

1626829597215.png
 

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SILJ/Silver - This sort of action happens near lows. Yes we could flush out here in a real capitulation low e.g. 2020 but the buy looks to be in this quarter.

1626830125391.png


Ten years of SILJ seasonality, September is the shocker according to this data!

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Wall Street Silver Apes have plateaued @ 124K seemingly supporting the Robinhood report of low activity.
 

savvydon

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Wall Street Silver Apes have plateaued @ 124K seemingly supporting the Robinhood report of low activity.
I can attest to the fact that the silver market has gone to sleep. Premiums have contracted and general interest seems to have waned. I don't know when and if things will turn, but in the past we have talked on this thread about the need for a lull in the market (most people looking the other way), before TPTB take their boot off its neck and let the moon shot lift off.
 

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I can attest to the fact that the silver market has gone to sleep. Premiums have contracted and general interest seems to have waned. I don't know when and if things will turn, but in the past we have talked on this thread about the need for a lull in the market (most people looking the other way), before TPTB take their boot off its neck and let the moon shot lift off.

Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition! as Monty Python was fond of saying.

Yes... exactly. Highs and lows occur when we are all one one side of the boat.
 

Goldhedge

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$930,000 would buy a few silver coins... not as much as $3.5 Million would buy ... but more than most folks!
 

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Battling your PM bullish bias. In the next bull run use the "invert chart" function, study the chart and ask yourself "would I buy this". If it looks like a bottom then SELL!
 

savvydon

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...but he will hold to a much lower figure.
Battling your PM bullish bias. In the next bull run use the "invert chart" function, study the chart and ask yourself "would I buy this". If it looks like a bottom then SELL!
This.

Early this year my PM/miner account was some 60% higher than it is now. I was intoxicated by the gains into thinking that my moonshot had come and all I had to do was ride the train to the other end of the rainbow. If I would have soberly taken some of the profits off the table I could have deployed these funds during this dip. It is true that hindsight is 20/20, but it is worth understanding that selling right is tougher than buying right.
 

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It is true that hindsight is 20/20, but it is worth understanding that selling right is tougher than buying right.

I still struggle with it.

Once this gold bull market is over I will only trade things that I don't really like in order to help with this! :-)
 

dpong

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Amen, brother! Zealousness belongs in a church. You need cold impartiality to trade right.
And I don't have cold impartiality, so I use stop loss instead. ;)
 

Goldhedge

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I still struggle with it.

Once this gold bull market is over I will only trade things that I don't really like in order to help with this! :-)
Once it's over? LOL!

From the looks of things we'll be pushin up daisies before that happens!

I'm not trading in this market. I'd be hanging on all the way down just like the doge dude...
 

savvydon

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And I don't have cold impartiality, so I use stop loss instead. ;)
I don't have a rigid system, but I do sometimes use stop losses. Thing is, they are colored by my 'true believer in metals' mentality. A friend of mine plays in the biotech world. Sometimes I buy based on his recommendation. I find buying and selling much easier in that space because I am not emotionally invested, just financially invested. I buy and sell there without remorse. Just cold blooded business is all.
 

Voodoo

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I don't have a rigid system, but I do sometimes use stop losses. Thing is, they are colored by my 'true believer in metals' mentality. A friend of mine plays in the biotech world. Sometimes I buy based on his recommendation. I find buying and selling much easier in that space because I am not emotionally invested, just financially invested. I buy and sell there without remorse. Just cold blooded business is all.

I really dislike very rigid systems but that's partly my fault because I hate following the stupid details. Yeah, it hurts sometimes but I'd rather get the general trends correct.

I am currently into a Biotech pretty big right now and I've never purchased in this space before now. It's dirty as hell but I like this stonk and it should get an EUA by the end of this week. Look at Humanigen, HGEN.
 

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After almost losing my shirt yesterday, I had my biggest single day gains ever, today.
1626895606916.png

Someone here once said “the markets can stay irrational longer then you can remain solvent”.
This is stressing me out man.
 

savvydon

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I really dislike very rigid systems but that's partly my fault because I hate following the stupid details. Yeah, it hurts sometimes but I'd rather get the general trends correct.

I am currently into a Biotech pretty big right now and I've never purchased in this space before now. It's dirty as hell but I like this stonk and it should get an EUA by the end of this week. Look at Humanigen, HGEN.
Seems like a bit of sideways churn. The fundamentals are probably key here. Problem is, it takes diligence and hard work to peel away the layers of BS. Who has time for that?

screenshot_130.png
 

Voodoo

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Seems like a bit of sideways churn. The fundamentals are probably key here. Problem is, it takes diligence and hard work to peel away the layers of BS. Who has time for that?

View attachment 218684

I've read the studies that have been done and the science/drug looks good. The problem is just how damn corrupt is the FDA and do they really want a good therapeutic? The company did have a shady past and a large Hedge fund or two that saved them a few years ago. The other problem lately has been that the CSO owns about three hedge funds as part of that and he's been selling shares since that huge spike (when they announced the good Phase 3 trial data). The other problem in my mind, and about the only one, is that if we are talking about therapeutics why not just go Ivermectin?
 

dpong

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Speaking of fundies and FDA.

I have to stick with price movements myself.

The rigid system has kept me from stressing out, man, like @Jodster .

[Before that my hair was always on fire!]

Window_and_ARDX_1_93_▼_−4_23__Weekly_FAST.jpg
 

dpong

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I do admire people who can make money trading without a set system. [So realize I'm not arguing.]

[I have made money without a system, but then I inevitably give it back.]
 

dpong

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If you want to make the gods laugh, make a plan.

View attachment 218593
Regarding this very large loss of > 75% suffered by ARDX in my WTT system, I must say that I went and back-tested starting all the way back to 2000 (Y2K) to the present and looked for any losses > 70% and there was only a single 1 in the 20+ years that represents.

I will take this loss as a one-off and unlikely to recur any time soon.

[But that's real life for ya.]
 
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Goldhedge

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partly my fault because I hate following the stupid details.
Problem is, it takes diligence and hard work to peel away the layers of BS. Who has time for that?
all that and more!

I guess that's why there are fund managers....? Put money in and fuggitaboutit
 

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Voodoo

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Regarding this very large loss of > 75% suffered by ARDX in my WTT system, I must say that I went and back-tested starting all the way back to 2000 (Y2K) to the present and looked for any losses > 70% and there was only a single 1 in the 20+ years that represents.

I will take this loss as a one-off and unlikely to recur any time soon.

[But that's real life for ya.]

I would say that your system should probably stick to medium to larger stocks. Small biotechs will be prone to large ouches all at once. Does it have any sort of Market Cap minimum? That would be something I would look to add to a trading system like yours.
 

dpong

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I would say that your system should probably stick to medium to larger stocks. Small biotechs will be prone to large ouches all at once. Does it have any sort of Market Cap minimum? That would be something I would look to add to a trading system like yours.
Your comments are good and make sense. However I am going for maximum earnings so I am using small caps that tend to sometimes be more hyperactive than larger stocks.

Not to belabor the point, but when I say I had a "large loss" it would be good for me to put that in context. A 75% loss is a large percentage loss for one of my positions to suffer. However, since I take each position as only 5% of my portfolio value, if I suffer a 100% loss in a position that is only 5% of my portfolio value. If I suffer a 75% loss on 1 position that comes out to 3.75% of my portfolio value.

If backtesting shows that is likely to happen only once or twice in a decade (which it does), then that is the price of working with volatile stocks and I won't concern myself about it.

[If backtesting were to show me that I would get better performance using larger cap stocks, I would do that.]