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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Momentum Ceilings : NB: The 1980 high was 2x the relative significant highs we have had since.

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dpong

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@dpong I had an exchange with Nick the other day, mentioned you and WTT. I said that I had warned you to reevaluate if market conditions changed and we slipped into a bear. He came back with a comment that testing and performance across short bear periods suggested WTT can do very well in a bear market!

Thought I'd mention it.
Thanks for that. Yes, I think WTT protects itself fairly well in bearish conditions. So in the crash of 2020 it lost some money but then went to cash. It was excellently positioned for coming out of the crash, started buying in April was super positioned.

Where WTT isn't so great is in the current conditions where stocks are kind of going sideways. Will lose money in these conditions. When I say sideways, to complicate it yet make it more accurate: S&P 500 is slowly making new marginal highs, so WTT takes it as stock market positive. However, the small caps world I'm playing in is rolling over and not following the major market higher - going sideways. This disconnect (though should be temporary) is costing me in the short run. But WTT will get realigned with the market and should do well sooner or later. The kind of drawdown I have experienced is within expectations.

[I'm only trading stocks from Russell 3000 with price of 1 to 20 dollars.]

Small cap example: [Sideways.]

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[Don't tell Nick I didn't pay.] :secret:

[Actually, in Nick's favor, I must say I would have been better off had I paid from the start and bought his code. I coded his system myself and did not have a testing platform so I had to guess that I had it right. My system seemed to be doing pretty well. Later I did get the Amibroker platform and ported the code over to Amibroker. One day I was trying to fix a bug in my code and changed the search settings to help me debug. I realized the results were astoundingly better than how I had been performing. Turned out I had misinterpreted Nick's words when I was coding my version. My version had been far too conservative and meek. This cost me a good bit of money in 2020 which was one of the best trend-following years EVER. So had I been using Nick's code from day one I would have done much much better in 2020 and the software purchase of around $600 would have more than paid for itself. True story.]
 
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perry

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gold is taking a hit in the after hours, could this pave way to 1500 gold. We'll see... I have reduced holdings in gold a month ago, just to protect my savings.
 

Zed

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Where WTT isn't so great is in the current conditions where stocks are kind of going sideways.

FWIW I think that just about kills every system and trader.

2c
 

Zed

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~169x is quite possible here if we break further south next week. We are on support and it really needs to hold or its near $70 to decent looking support.

JMO etc.

Well that didn't take long!

That's a low volume Globex attack, I expect that it will rally from here.

This smells like desperation!

Don't you hate dickheads that quote themselves!
 

Zed

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This just might be the starting gun, one last shake of the tree before game on. I'd expect almost anything here. Hey at least I'm not bored anymore!
 

Lancers32

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Just because it didn't happen in New York or Chicago doesn't mean it didn't happen. Same shit different day the low on the retracement last year was c.$21.50 not $23.50. See last night's lows in Gold and Silver? Gold right down to the $1680 level Silver $22.10.

Lows made overnight The miners are a buy against the lows made recently. Look for a decent rally from here.

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Lancers32

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Broke out around 7.
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Zed

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#FakePoos

LOL.
 

Goldhedge

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Goldhedge

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Goldhedge

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Zed

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Yeah I know, it's VOX but this is worth understanding.

 

Lancers32

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Head and shoulders averted. Peter Brandt Twitter account 8/10/2021.

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Goldhedge

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Shoulda woulda coulda....

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Zed

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Science is killing itself in the eyes of the public and that threatens to throw us back into the dark ages when religious views ruled.

 

Zed

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Freeport and BTC, interesting correlation...

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Zed

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Lancers32

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The volume is wrong on that chart. It wasn't looking like H&S to me at all.

Go argue with Peter Brandt on that one. RU sure that is volume or might it be another indicator?
 

Lancers32

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Friday is a strong possibility.

Curious if you are holding any pm related investments at the moment or are you waiting for lower prices? Mining shares and such if you don't mind.

I am 2% long.
 

Lancers32

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Bulls always see a cup and handle all the time. Maybe not. Bull market price go up bear price go down.

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