@dpong I had an exchange with Nick the other day, mentioned you and WTT. I said that I had warned you to reevaluate if market conditions changed and we slipped into a bear. He came back with a comment that testing and performance across short bear periods suggested WTT can do very well in a bear market!
Thanks for that. Yes, I think WTT protects itself fairly well in bearish conditions. So in the crash of 2020 it lost some money but then went to cash. It was excellently positioned for coming out of the crash, started buying in April was super positioned.
Where WTT isn't so great is in the current conditions where stocks are kind of going sideways. Will lose money in these conditions. When I say sideways, to complicate it yet make it more accurate: S&P 500 is slowly making new marginal highs, so WTT takes it as stock market positive. However, the small caps world I'm playing in is rolling over and not following the major market higher - going sideways. This disconnect (though should be temporary) is costing me in the short run. But WTT will get realigned with the market and should do well sooner or later. The kind of drawdown I have experienced is within expectations.
[I'm only trading stocks from Russell 3000 with price of 1 to 20 dollars.]
Small cap example: [Sideways.]
[Don't tell Nick I didn't pay.]
[Actually, in Nick's favor, I must say I would have been better off had I paid from the start and bought his code. I coded his system myself and did not have a testing platform so I had to guess that I had it right. My system seemed to be doing pretty well. Later I did get the Amibroker platform and ported the code over to Amibroker. One day I was trying to fix a bug in my code and changed the search settings to help me debug. I realized the results were astoundingly better than how I had been performing. Turned out I had misinterpreted Nick's words when I was coding my version. My version had been far too conservative and meek. This cost me a good bit of money in 2020 which was one of the best trend-following years EVER. So had I been using Nick's code from day one I would have done much much better in 2020 and the software purchase of around $600 would have more than paid for itself. True story.]
Just because it didn't happen in New York or Chicago doesn't mean it didn't happen. Same shit different day the low on the retracement last year was c.$21.50 not $23.50. See last night's lows in Gold and Silver? Gold right down to the $1680 level Silver $22.10.
Lows made overnight The miners are a buy against the lows made recently. Look for a decent rally from here.