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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

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In a recent episode of The Keiser Report, Egon von Greyerz and Max Keiser discuss the 50th anniversary of the demise of Bretton Woods, Nixon suspending the dollar's convertibility into gold, "transitory" inflation, how stock and bond markets are pricing in inflation expectations, and the ominous future of the dollar and other fiat currencies. Don't miss this insightful exchange!

00:00 -Bretton Woods and the "Nixon Shock."
01:53 -Is inflation transitory?
05:47 -Inflation and technological deflation.
08:20 -Are stock traders frontrunning the Federal Reserve? 10:09 -All fiat currencies end in the abyss.
11:33 -What is trending in the gold market?

 

dpong

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The curve is U-Shaped with both the least educated and the most educated (Phd) being the most hesitant.

[But the Phd's were least likely to change their mind.]


2021-08-11_8-59-18.jpg
 

JayDubya

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The price of gold is going to plummet...

NASA to Study a $700 Quintillion ‘Goldmine’ Asteroid​

https://nerdist.com/article/nasa-studying-goldmine-asteroid-700-quintillion-dollars/

If The Beatles taught us one thing it’s that all we need is love. A pretty close second thing we need, however, is enough money to make everyone in the world a billionaire many times over. Incredibly, something exists that could actually make that a reality: Psyche 16, a totally metal asteroid that Bloomberg says is worth $700 quintillion. Or at least $140 quintillion, as scientists have now confirmed the asteroid’s at least 20% metal.

DesignTAXI picked up on the new look at Psyche 16, which comes as one of the latest steps toward actually visiting the precious space rock. NASA plans to send a probe to the asteroid in 2022, which would arrive in 2026. That’s a surprisingly short period of time considering Psyche 16 is hundreds of millions of miles from Earth. Although it will get a “gravity assist” from Mars.

A crisp animation of the $700 quintillion grayish blue asteroid, Psyche 16.

NASA

To better understand Psyche 16’s size, spin, shape, reflectivity, and roughness, researchers used the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array telescope (or ALMA) in Chile to image the asteroid thermally. They also used ALMA to study any polarized light bouncing off its surface. (Polarized light waves have vibrating electric charges that occur on a single plane versus a variety of planes. More on that here.)

A series of thermal images of Psyche 16, an asteroid worth $700 quintillion.


In a study published in The Planetary Science Journal, the researchers say the data shows Psyche 16 is at least 20% metal. And it may even have a much higher metal content. However, paradoxically, the researchers found Psyche 16 doesn’t emit the kind of polarized light a highly metallic body should. The researchers now think this must mean that metal-rich asteroids produce less polarized emissions than metal-poor ones do. It’s a direct contradiction of what they would’ve expected.


That scientific conundrum aside, this discovery obviously helps bolster excitement for the mission. (An overview of which is in the above video.) Although we shouldn’t all start counting our billies quite yet. The NASA probe only aims to collect more data from the asteroid. That includes measurements of its gravity and potential electromagnetic fields, as well as if it is indeed the core of a planet-sized object.
 

Voodoo

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The curve is U-Shaped with both the least educated and the most educated (Phd) being the most hesitant.

[But the Phd's were least likely to change their mind.]


View attachment 220939

Weird, I'm at both sides of this curve. IE I have a PhD and have some strong questions about the 5G effects. It's almost like they are just making up shit to throw in some propaganda. Oh Wait, that's exactly what they are doing.
 

Zed

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Go argue with Peter Brandt on that one. RU sure that is volume or might it be another indicator?

I'm not arguing, just pointing out. Loosely volume is supposed to run up on the first shoulder rally then weaken on subsequent rallies, it is also supposed to build on the sell offs then rise on the final break down that confirms the pattern. H&S become a lot rarer by that definition. It also makes sense from a sentiment stand.

Otherwise you'd see H&S's are everywhere!
 

Zed

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Curious if you are holding any pm related investments at the moment or are you waiting for lower prices? Mining shares and such if you don't mind.

I am 2% long.

Yes, I have core positions that won't get sold until I think we are done. They are so deep in profit now that our tax treatment means that I'd need to be sure of a huge correction to make a trade worth it.

I have been buying recently from short term money. These positions are closest to being stopped out. Could all change today, tomorrow or not!

I've also taken up some offers and added to long term holdings, for better or worse.

I have plenty of cash but I'd never get to 2% long, but then it's not all PM's related so that balance changes.

Some of my money is brave and some is chicken shit!

I dunno how that helps you?
 

Zed

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The price of gold is going to plummet...

NASA to Study a $700 Quintillion ‘Goldmine’ Asteroid​

https://nerdist.com/article/nasa-studying-goldmine-asteroid-700-quintillion-dollars/

If The Beatles taught us one thing it’s that all we need is love. A pretty close second thing we need, however, is enough money to make everyone in the world a billionaire many times over. Incredibly, something exists that could actually make that a reality: Psyche 16, a totally metal asteroid that Bloomberg says is worth $700 quintillion. Or at least $140 quintillion, as scientists have now confirmed the asteroid’s at least 20% metal.

DesignTAXI picked up on the new look at Psyche 16, which comes as one of the latest steps toward actually visiting the precious space rock. NASA plans to send a probe to the asteroid in 2022, which would arrive in 2026. That’s a surprisingly short period of time considering Psyche 16 is hundreds of millions of miles from Earth. Although it will get a “gravity assist” from Mars.

A crisp animation of the $700 quintillion grayish blue asteroid, Psyche 16.

NASA

To better understand Psyche 16’s size, spin, shape, reflectivity, and roughness, researchers used the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array telescope (or ALMA) in Chile to image the asteroid thermally. They also used ALMA to study any polarized light bouncing off its surface. (Polarized light waves have vibrating electric charges that occur on a single plane versus a variety of planes. More on that here.)

A series of thermal images of Psyche 16, an asteroid worth $700 quintillion.


In a study published in The Planetary Science Journal, the researchers say the data shows Psyche 16 is at least 20% metal. And it may even have a much higher metal content. However, paradoxically, the researchers found Psyche 16 doesn’t emit the kind of polarized light a highly metallic body should. The researchers now think this must mean that metal-rich asteroids produce less polarized emissions than metal-poor ones do. It’s a direct contradiction of what they would’ve expected.


That scientific conundrum aside, this discovery obviously helps bolster excitement for the mission. (An overview of which is in the above video.) Although we shouldn’t all start counting our billies quite yet. The NASA probe only aims to collect more data from the asteroid. That includes measurements of its gravity and potential electromagnetic fields, as well as if it is indeed the core of a planet-sized object.

Fuck man, it is expensive enough to mine earth! The fact that anyone would consider going that far tells you alot, it would be like owning that diamond making machine, you'd be very careful about the market IF you worked out how the hell you were going to pull it all off!
 

dpong

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Weird, I'm at both sides of this curve. IE I have a PhD and have some strong questions about the 5G effects. It's almost like they are just making up shit to throw in some propaganda. Oh Wait, that's exactly what they are doing.
I was a little surprised at the results. From personal experience I believe that (paradoxically) the more educated are more likely to fall for operations than the less educated. I know that doesn't make sense except that perhaps the more educated are more indoctrinated, or perhaps more -sure of themselves- and less likely to doubt.

I too feel that I am at both ends of the curve. Technically I am less formally educated. However I am largely self-educated. This includes 20+ years of GIM-style doubting and reading. And reading and reading. And considering things from all sides. So I find myself at the "the numbers just don't make sense" side of the equation and would be very slow to change my opinion. It would take a lot.

Again odd. Present company excluded, for sure. But I have worked with Phd's and frankly I am not impressed. Not with the ones I have known anyway. I know they are smart, but not necessarily savvy or well informed. My experience with my Phd-ers.
 

dpong

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Example: The more educated are more likely than the less educated to read The Atlantic. Which is really not helpful.
 
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Zed

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Yeah, I tend to think that the Dunning Kruger effect is in play. That is to say that the PHd's will probably give more latitude to those that they don't agree with and be less vocal about it HOWEVER that doesn't change their concern level. Sadly I think that the really bright ones are quiet achievers that will not rock the boat. It doesn't mean they will comply but they will not be making noise about it.
 

JayDubya

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Gold among the worst 2021 investments: Allstarcharts.com founder​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...ments-allstarchartscom-founder-162408139.html

In light of gold’s (GC=F) flash crash on Monday, with the commodity dropping to its lowest price since March at $1,730.13 an ounce in New York by late afternoon, some investors may be growing wary about its efficacy as an inflation hedge in the near term. According to J.C. Parets, Allstarcharts.com founder and chief strategist, gold has become one of the worst investments over the past year.

“Nobody wants your rocks, right? I mean, that's the theme … the gold bugs have come up with every story under the sun as to why gold should go up, and it doesn't,” Parets told Yahoo Finance Live. “In fact, over the last year, you’d be hard pressed to find a worse investment over the last year [than] gold.”

As inflation reaches the highest levels seen since 2008, gold prices have fallen over 16% in a year — down over $300 from an August 2020 peak of $2,069 per ounce. Just a year ago, institutions like Bank of America (BAC) projected that gold’s value could skyrocket to as much as $3,000.

“I mean, literally, you could have bought anything and it would have made money but not gold, you know, so it just really is the worst of the bunch,” Parets added. “And even in commodities, literally every commodity in the world is going up, except for gold.”

See also:

See also:

Parets joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the latest market action for equities, cryptocurrency, and commodities. Allstarcharts.com is a technical analysis publication for hedge funds, mutual funds, financial advisors, family offices, and individual investors which provides technical analysis commentary across all assets, according to its website.

Indeed, futures on other commodities such as crude oil (CL=F) and natural gas (NG=F) have demonstrated strong rebounds from pandemic-era lows, while precious metals like gold, silver (SI=F), and platinum (PL=F) continue to struggle. According to Parets, the reason for gold’s persistent slump is simply low demand in conjunction with growing supply.

Until market conditions for gold improve, Parets noted that he is going to steer clear from investing in bullion. However, he is confident that gold eventually returns to last year's highs.

“It's really a supply and demand game,” Parets said. “Some people like to have conspiracy theories about gold and [it being an] inflation hedge, and [they’re all just] stories. And so you can listen to those stories, or you can focus on the only thing that's actually ever going to pay anyone, and that's the price of gold,” he said.

“The problem is that I don't know how long it's gonna take,” Parets said. “I don't think it's gonna happen tomorrow or next month — probably not even this year, maybe next year, maybe the year after that.
 
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Zed

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Gold among the worst 2021 investments: Allstarcharts.com founder​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...ments-allstarchartscom-founder-162408139.html

In light of gold’s (GC=F) flash crash on Monday, with the commodity dropping to its lowest price since March at $1,730.13 an ounce in New York by late afternoon, some investors may be growing wary about its efficacy as an inflation hedge in the near term. According to J.C. Parets, Allstarcharts.com founder and chief strategist, gold has become one of the worst investments over the past year.

“Nobody wants your rocks, right? I mean, that's the theme … the gold bugs have come up with every story under the sun as to why gold should go up, and it doesn't,” Parets told Yahoo Finance Live. “In fact, over the last year, you’d be hard pressed to find a worse investment over the last year [than] gold.”

As inflation reaches the highest levels seen since 2008, gold prices have fallen over 16% in a year — down over $300 from an August 2020 peak of $2,069 per ounce. Just a year ago, institutions like Bank of America (BAC) projected that gold’s value could skyrocket to as much as $3,000.

“I mean, literally, you could have bought anything and it would have made money but not gold, you know, so it just really is the worst of the bunch,” Parets added. “And even in commodities, literally every commodity in the world is going up, except for gold.”

See also:

See also:

Parets joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the latest market action for equities, cryptocurrency, and commodities. Allstarcharts.com is a technical analysis publication for hedge funds, mutual funds, financial advisors, family offices, and individual investors which provides technical analysis commentary across all assets, according to its website.

Indeed, futures on other commodities such as crude oil (CL=F) and natural gas (NG=F) have demonstrated strong rebounds from pandemic-era lows, while precious metals like gold, silver (SI=F), and platinum (PL=F) continue to struggle. According to Parets, the reason for gold’s persistent slump is simply low demand in conjunction with growing supply.

Until market conditions for gold improve, Parets noted that he is going to steer clear from investing in bullion. However, he is confident that gold eventually returns to last year's highs.

“It's really a supply and demand game,” Parets said. “Some people like to have conspiracy theories about gold and [it being an] inflation hedge, and [they’re all just] stories. And so you can listen to those stories, or you can focus on the only thing that's actually ever going to pay anyone, and that's the price of gold,” he said.

“The problem is that I don't know how long it's gonna take,” Parets said. “I don't think it's gonna happen tomorrow or next month — probably not even this year, maybe next year, maybe the year after that.

It would be polite to wait until December...
 

Lancers32

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Yes, I have core positions that won't get sold until I think we are done. They are so deep in profit now that our tax treatment means that I'd need to be sure of a huge correction to make a trade worth it.

I have been buying recently from short term money. These positions are closest to being stopped out. Could all change today, tomorrow or not!

I've also taken up some offers and added to long term holdings, for better or worse.

I have plenty of cash but I'd never get to 2% long, but then it's not all PM's related so that balance changes.

Some of my money is brave and some is chicken shit!

I dunno how that helps you?
Wow. You must be holding those positions a really long time.
 
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Zed

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Wow. You must be holding those positions a really long time.

Some yes, and it has paid off massively. Some deliver more in dividends each year than the positions cost me.
 

Lancers32

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I'm not arguing, just pointing out. Loosely volume is supposed to run up on the first shoulder rally then weaken on subsequent rallies, it is also supposed to build on the sell offs then rise on the final break down that confirms the pattern. H&S become a lot rarer by that definition. It also makes sense from a sentiment stand.

Otherwise you'd see H&S's are everywhere!


Cardano with volume on the bottom. You mean like this I assume? More volume first shoulder. Pattern failed as do a lot of patterns. Just broken really. No prediction of duration or magnitude.

ADAUSD_2021-08-12_08-30-24.png
 

Lancers32

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Bitcoin halfway back 28-65.

E8l0EcGXMAAVtQF.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Was bullish all the way down. Fade.

gm s.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Gold Bugs Index


E8mNzGKVgAAEC4d.png
 

Lancers32

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Some yes, and it has paid off massively. Some deliver more in dividends each year than the positions cost me.


You picked your stocks well.
 

Zed

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Thanks mate. Will watch tonight while I wait for another patient to be squeezed back into our overwhelmed, understaffed, Covid ridden unit.

Yeah, I know you are probably 100% booked up for now. It's interesting if you do get your head up and find some brain space.

Cheers
 

Zed

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You picked your stocks well.

Trial and error, fire the losers, accumulate the winners and follow decent people. I profess no real skill in determining the best mines to back! Gold mining is 1/2 voodoo after all! LOL.
 

Zed

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Hemke is Turd Ferguson I believe? This from 2012. Trapped at the top the last go around as well.

Are you calling a top here? Another 10 year break? Although I seem to remember you saying this last break would be 25 years back when gold finally failed after 2011.
 

savvydon

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Hemke is Turd Ferguson I believe? This from 2012. Trapped at the top the last go around as well.


Hemke is indeed Turd. I didn’t follow him back then. Now he is bullish but measured. He is pretty facile in his analysis and brings some good data/research to the table. I don’t follow him blindly and he does not ask that of his listeners. He tends to bring his particular unvarnished truth to the table fwiw. I sometimes listen to his short daily podcasts while multitasking at my computer.
 

Zed

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Welcome to Friday!

Setup for another Friday softening and Monday kicking?
 

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Where’s the Friday Smackdown? Asking for a friend ...
 

Zed

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Where’s the Friday Smackdown? Asking for a friend ...

May not come, but max bang for buck is what happened last weekend.
 

savvydon

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May not come, but max bang for buck is what happened last weekend.
This morning's mild metal rise is pretty much a function of dollar weakness. There is still time yet for an early Comex kick in the teeth...