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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Jodster

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May not come, but max bang for buck is what happened last weekend.
More pain to come in metals. WE don't set the price... THEY do...
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Zed

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Gold - Well, the week closed out at a level that I quietly hoped it would. We needed to see this which is why I feared the exact opposite would unfold. Nice long tail on that candle, aka rejection of lower pries, and we hung onto the trend line I had drawn. Not too foul considering the plunge this week. We now have a chance of trending up, previous trend speed suggests ~2K is the next decision point. Oliver says +1950 (now lower, maybe even ~1900) will paint a sea change in the momentum picture BUT I can see the big round number @ 2K being the big issue for the price watchers. There is about 2 months of space if that last up trend speed is an indication, so coming into Christmas time might be a reasonable expectation to set. First things first, we need to see the trend reestablish itself here!

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Silver - This week looks like a strong possibility for a bottom! Now we need to see a swing back @ the ~$28 level and momentum swing back up on a longer term basis. If I draw that top line using closes the break point is ~$27.50. Oliver indicated the break price was falling on his chart so a few good solid weeks could get us there. Next significant 1st delivery day is 1 September... that opens the window IF the apes have actually ramped up enough pressure to make a difference. Maybe this weeks hit was about Sep delivery, we should see soon enough. NB: This flag targets the old highs in the upper $40. A logical resting place if we have a runaway break on our hands as Oliver suggests is possilbe.

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Zed

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This morning's mild metal rise is pretty much a function of dollar weakness. There is still time yet for an early Comex kick in the teeth...

I'd quietly hoped not but I don't dare express those feelings these days! {sigh}

DXY - Losing momentum here. I'm starting to think that the USD strength idea is later and comes from a lower base. Oliver might be right here, this is starting to look like a flag and it projects the sort of DXY levels that occurred prior to 2008 really falling out. Breaking that 90 level downside could be it for the DXY for a while! DXY plunging to the high 7x's could send gold/silver to this 8K/200 target THEN we might have a cash is king episode in 2022 corresponding with a deep gold/silver/stock market correction/crash with DXY strength and a bond market rally. This could be a wild ride up and down!

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Marc saying things I've felt true for years... nothing ground breaking and a little depressing. You have been warned!

 

Zed

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Gold deliveries year to date... 254 still open this month...

1628912697402.png
 

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Silver deliveries year to date... Looking fwd to September, ~ 76K open contracts, bigger than December for now.

1628912763829.png
 

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Cranky Gerald...

 

Lancers32

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Gold - Well, the week closed out at a level that I quietly hoped it would. We needed to see this which is why I feared the exact opposite would unfold. Nice long tail on that candle, aka rejection of lower pries, and we hung onto the trend line I had drawn. Not too foul considering the plunge this week. We now have a chance of trending up, previous trend speed suggests ~2K is the next decision point. Oliver says +1950 (now lower, maybe even ~1900) will paint a sea change in the momentum picture BUT I can see the big round number @ 2K being the big issue for the price watchers. There is about 2 months of space if that last up trend speed is an indication, so coming into Christmas time might be a reasonable expectation to set. First things first, we need to see the trend reestablish itself here!

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If you go back far enough with Oliver you will see that prices he quoted which would give way to the bull reasserting have come and gone and yet we are still here.
 

Lancers32

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Who knows what they are looking @ or how much they have left in the tank!
They supposedly died 20 years ago yet the plates keep spinning.
 

Lancers32

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Are you calling a top here? Another 10 year break? Although I seem to remember you saying this last break would be 25 years back when gold finally failed after 2011.

Well the top as you obviously know was a year ago. Another 10 year break? Doubt it but until the mining shares start to move and the move sticks we won't go higher in any meaningful way. We can for sure rally from these levels but whether or not this week's prices mark the bottom is still in question. You can go long against this week's bottoms with stops. Like I said. We might need prices to go low enough for all but the most bullish to question the pm complex. Sentiment at this point is on balance pessimistic enough to support some kind of rally.
 

Lancers32

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Just making shit up as we go.

E8uggtoVEAY9Wkp.jpg
 

JayDubya

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Big losses ahead for markets? Jeremy Grantham’s terrifying new forecasts​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/sav...rantham-s-terrifying-new-forecasts/ar-AAMu3Uv
chart, waterfall chart
© Source: GMO

BRETT ARENDS'S ROI

If you have a 401(k) and you’re of a nervous disposition, you probably don’t want to look at the chart above.

Video: The three most 'ridiculous' charts in the market (CNBC)
Unable to copy or embed the video. It is available at the link above.

Even by the standards of GMO, the super-cautious money management firm in Boston best known for its famous co-founder Jeremy Grantham, it’s terrifying.

It shows about the worst medium-term forecasts on record for pretty much all the assets most of us own in our retirement accounts. Large company U.S. stocks like the S&P 500 ? Small company U.S. stocks like the Russell 2000 ? International stocks? U.S. bonds, foreign bonds, inflation-protected bonds? GMO thinks if you buy them now and hold them over the next seven or so years, they will all – all—lose you money in real, purchasing-power terms.

In the case of some of these mainstream investments, the predicted losses are huge. Those 8% and 8.5% annual losses on U.S. large-caps and small-caps? If they happen, they’ll mean your SPDR S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard S&P 500 Trust and Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF lose about half their value, in inflation-adjusted terms, by 2028.

I’ve been following GMO’s forecasts for nearly 20 years. I’ve never seen one this bad, and I’ve seen some that were really bad—like the ones they made in 2000 and 2007, just before the two big crashes.

There is a tendency at certain moments for market followers to roll their eyes whenever anyone mentions the latest gloomy predictions from GMO. “Those guys have been wrong for years,” say skeptics. They point out, for example, that GMO 10 years ago predicted emerging markets would probably do really well and U.S. stocks badly. Instead, the reverse happened.

Go to an online chat room like Bogleheads and you can find plenty of skeptics.

But it’s not quite that simple. GMO was among the few firms to predict the 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 crashes. And each time, people laughed. The online chat rooms were different — 20 years ago it was Yahoo and Raging Bull—but the sound was the same.

In the event, the warnings GMO made in the late 1990s were remarkably accurate. It ranked 10 major asset classes by future investment performance, and got them pretty much in line. “The chances of getting that forecast exactly right were less than one in 500,000,” The Economist magazine calculated.

The worst among the 10? The S&P 500.

I also remember Grantham warning in the summer of 2007, when the markets were booming, that at least one major Wall Street bank would go bust within the next two years. At the time people thought he’d finally gone off the rails. They probably thought that at Bear Stearns (d. 2008) and Lehman Brothers (d. 2008) too.

Oh, and he turned aggressively bullish on stocks during the depths of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. As he wrote at the time: If stocks are cheap and you don’t buy them and then they go up, you don’t just look like an idiot, you are an idiot.

GMO is currently getting so much flak from people on antisocial media that in an unusual move it has just published a robust defense of its forecasts. I could have told them defending themselves against people on antisocial media is a total waste of time. Twitter, as the WOPR might say, is like Tic-Tac-Toe and Global Thermonuclear War: The only way to win is not to play.

But in an unsigned note from the firm’s asset allocation team—chaired by firm honcho Ben Inker—GMO points out that by some measures the S&P 500 may be even more overvalued today than it was in 1999-2000.

What are we ordinary investors to make of this? History suggests that the time when we most need to listen to people like GMO is precisely the moment when everyone has stopped doing so.

Furthermore, when we dismiss these types of warnings we have to watch out that we’re not double-counting. By definition, the more you pay for stocks, the lower must be your future long-term returns. If the stock market goes through the roof, that suggests we should become more cautious, not less, about what we’ll get down the road.

As a longer-term, retirement plan investor, GMO’s warnings don’t make me want to sell everything. But they do remind me to check my risks. If I couldn’t ride out a 50% fall in the market over the next 5-10 years, I probably own too many stocks. And, most important, they remind me to diversify.

GMO believes there are investments out there that offer much better prospects than the S&P 500: Among them “emerging market value” stocks, meaning cheaper, typically older stocks in developing markets from China to Brazil, small-company stocks in Japan, and more generally value and high-quality stocks everywhere. There are good diversification opportunities for those who are all-in on U.S. stocks alone.

I wouldn’t hang my hat on these forecasts. But I wouldn’t ignore them either.

Even by the standards of GMO, the super-cautious money management firm in Boston best known for its famous co-founder Jeremy Grantham, it’s terrifying.
 

Zed

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Afghanistan looks like a Lehman moment politically speaking!

Are you sure this will work?

Yeah, no worries, we have got this!

3 seconds later...

How the fuck did that go down??????
 

Zed

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Fringe sentiment is lower than low now!

This could be the big one lads!

532064.jpg


I'm sorry, the devil made me do it!
 

Lancers32

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Transference?
 

Jodster

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Fringe sentiment is lower than low now!

This could be the big one lads!

532064.jpg


I'm sorry, the devil made me do it!
Care to expound on that, for us 5 year olds in the crowd?
 

the_shootist

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Fringe sentiment is lower than low now!

This could be the big one lads!

532064.jpg


I'm sorry, the devil made me do it!
We'll see. I don't expect it any more than I did all the other times
 

the_shootist

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Stole this off the SDBullion website

 

Lancers32

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Disappointing day in the mining shares followed by another one today. Think that is bullish huh?
 

Lancers32

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Doing a stand up routine is hard. This guy was never accused of being the brightest bulb on the tree but can you imagine Bidet attempting this?


 

Lancers32

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Not too shabby.


 

Lancers32

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Decent roadmap going forward for Bitcoin. Nice secondary rally off the sweep of the lows in the 30K area. Sentiment up near 70 now so I pretty much think you need to have patience here. BITW under 40 could yield some decent profits.



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savvydon

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Disappointing day in the mining shares followed by another one today. Think that is bullish huh?
Turd has pointed out that the miners seem to track with the price of silver. Miners have been about as bullish as silver lately. They will both stay that way until things change.
 

Lancers32

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Bring back the tar and feather for this pos.
 

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Zed

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Care to expound on that, for us 5 year olds in the crowd?

The room is never full of smiling faces before things start moving.
 

Zed

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We'll see. I don't expect it any more than I did all the other times

It's a cultural thang... the humor doesn't translate well... I know that.
 

Zed

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Turd has pointed out that the miners seem to track with the price of silver. Miners have been about as bullish as silver lately. They will both stay that way until things change.

There is a divergence building between the miners momentum and the price. GDX & GDXJ for example could be setting up an island reversal. Silver has that nice long weekly tail out of support. The HUI is back around decent support.

Just for example the HUI's ratio to the SPX is getting into the territory that has attracted money in the past... it's cheap!

There are signs of green shoots here...

Not promising anything but I'm hardly slashing my wrists here...

:2 thumbs up: