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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Scorpio

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guys, there are now and have been for awhile futures markets in chitcoin,

where high leverage is possible, and with futures, it will typically be real players,

so stops could be run on those for sure, but is that enough to bleed over into the rest of the ecosystem? As selling begets selling, and some small fry may or may not panic into it?

rather than stops though, more importantly there was some very large selling overwhelming any buying activity,
and that to me represents those with some serious capital to throw their weight around
 

dpong

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Very dicey in the gold and silver so far. Need higher lows and higher highs. Not sure that is underway.
 

Lancers32

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Very dicey in the gold and silver so far. Need higher lows and higher highs. Not sure that is underway.
SILJ closed the first gap left on Friday there is one more underneath as you know. Oversold short term we can surely bounce but the rallies so far are very disappointing.
 

Oldmansmith

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As chart guy Dan says, "It can always go lower."
 

Zed

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So you don't believe that there is any manipulation in the markets Zed?

Where on earth did I say that?

I'm not just saying BTC, I'm saying all the markets. IF Bernie Madoff really played the game with investors for all those years (he was a small fish) that there couldn't be away to manipulate any market? Would there be a reason to manipulate the BTC market? I agree with you that BTC has been losing steam, why has it been losing steam? You're looking at charts/TA to come to this conclusion, I'm sure you're not the only one.

Madoff didn't manipulate markets, he outright made it all up.

BTW I never called YOU stupid, you inferred that, I would NEVER. What I said is "anyone that believes that it isn't manipulated to some degree is blind, or F'cking stupid." The game for the MOST part is rigged against them common NON-institutional investor.

I could be as unkind to describe anyone who doesn't realize what it takes to manipulate a market as f'cking stupid. BTC's market structure doesn't leave it that open to any serious manipulation. It is mostly, save for a small futures component, an instantly deliverable market trading on multiple exchanges with no backend connection. Unless you have really big size then moving price across that system would be hard. Even if you had the size, getting timing wrong would kill you. Unlike gold where you just need more $$$ and the leverage of futures to keep pressure on regardless of gold holdings. When futures dominate BTC and a minor % is deliverable then maybe it will all change but for now it is just a small volatile market.

If you took offense, well that is on you, not me.

Offense? Don't be silly.

I just point out bullshit as I see it. I don't see how any player can 'run stops' in any meaningful way in the BTC market as it is structured. People make crap up when the market moves in a way they don't like, they do it all the time. To me this looks like normal BTC market action, even somewhat subdued given what is it capable of.
 

Zed

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guys, there are now and have been for awhile futures markets in chitcoin,

where high leverage is possible, and with futures, it will typically be real players,

so stops could be run on those for sure, but is that enough to bleed over into the rest of the ecosystem?

I really, really doubt that the futures are anywhere near that influential in BTC yet. In time, when the institutions own a much bigger % of the market then maybe.
 

Zed

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Just for refence total BTC futures OI is in the area of 300 million USD where as the total market volume in BTC is currently floating in the 35 billion range. Over the last year it has ranged from ~20 billion to ~120 billion on a daily basis. IMO ~300 million of futures contracts is a drop in that bucket that will make no real difference to anything.

Maybe I'm wrong... but... pfffft!
 

Zed

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Silver Daily USD: Down trend break, trend backtest (often called a kiss & go, we will see!), generally positive momentum structure, coming off the bottom of an 18 month old price range, strengthening against gold, nascent uptrend, longer term momentum turning positive. She may just go sideways here for a bit but I'd leave my drama queen dress in the closet for a bit, save that outfit for a decent break down.

1631153045581.png
 

Lancers32

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Hardly. FFS you are a bit of a drama queen.
Drama queen my ass. Silver is hardly proving to be the place to be.
 

Lancers32

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Fancy charts which garner not too much up don't help make money. Girls don't like holding from the roof to the pavement. Fell free to do so.

sc (15).png
 

Lancers32

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Take a joke FFS man.
 

Lancers32

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Bought the Silver story. Still waiting for the moonshot.

 

Lancers32

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3b.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Chart patterns do not always work out.


E-2hovDWYAUZpTy.jpg
 

Au-myn

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Chart patterns do not always work out.


View attachment 224312
I believe that is page 55 from the book "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends". I own the revised 5th Edition. Robert D. Edwards and John Magee.

My father gave me the book for my 15th Birthday. I had been trading since 13 on a Joint / Custodial Account my Dad set up for me.

Oh, by the way, Lancer...Nice chart!!
 

Lancers32

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Got it off of Twitter not mine just an illustration of charts gone wrong.
 

Zed

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Drama queen my ass. Silver is hardly proving to be the place to be.

Tanking, yeah total drama queen FFS. In case you haven't noticed the whole market is drifting around somewhat aimlessly. Calm before the storm? Kind of feels like it to me, watching for a significant break, somewhere, anywhere.

Take a joke FFS man.

I dunno, try making one?

Chart patterns do not always work out.

Well Mr Quixote, I've never heard any T/A make the claim that they do!

Got it off of Twitter not mine just an illustration of charts gone wrong.

Only it isn't an illustration of charts gone wrong at all!

E-2hovDWYAUZpTy.jpg


"except that prices never broke down through the neckline" AKA it isn't a head and shoulders! This has been my point all along, until you see that break (on volume) then it just isn't an H&S. That's the last checkbox on the "Is this a tradable pattern?" list.

The other note to make is that for this to be a "perfect" head and shoulders the volume on the right shoulder would have to match or exceed the head. The low volume on the right shoulder is an indication that traders lacked conviction at this point. That was pointing to a potential "failure to complete" before you had buying step in @ the neckline.

Further to that an H&S that fails to complete <> an H&S that fails! To fail you have to see the breakdown of the neckline, on volume then a reversal back up over the neckline.

Once you look at the pattern as primarily defined by the volume you can understand why the rallies that result from failure to complete can be strong (short covering) and why at the same time they can signal potential future weakness or a coming top.

A parting shot...

The flow into equities since the launch of the vaccine = $825 Billion.

The cumulative flow into equities over the preceding 25 years = $727 Billion.


Maybe not hyperinflation but strong inflation none the less. This system is breaking, owning real things is the play over time. I like silvers chances over the next 5 years or so. They have two choices, let the broader markets implode or take the next step up the exponential money printing curve and find an excuse to double the $825B input over the next year. Then again the year after... etc. Either way the market is nearing a collective epiphany.

I'm betting on another major gut check, then a desperate response from government and world that takes another step into the twilight zone. MMT, yield curve control or some other epic distortion of free markets. That is me assuming that they need a crisis to justify the response but maybe we are just getting to the point that proactive panic is acceptable. There is no choice but to rinse and repeat until the system is totally broken, IMO we are right at the base of the steep acceleration in the process. It will be easy to fuck this up.
 

Zed

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BTW: Right his minute I am listening to Raoul Pal & Julian Brigden of Macro Insiders discussing gold and silver. Referring to silvers "beautiful chart pattern" making the recommendation to buy on strength, aka add 50% on >$25, go 100% >$26 "looking for $29 but really $35" (!? his words!) then ultimately $50.

Macro Insiders is a $17,500 USD sub for a single reader, so they are advising people that typically buy a little more than a few oz's and post the pic of the bling on a reddit.

FWIW they are saying strength because like everyone else they are frustrated with the length on the sideways consolidation and the concomitant action in the stocks and ETF's. They are, like the rest of the PM world, looking for the catalyst.

2c
FWIW.
 

Voodoo

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This is Not going to be a nice technical breakout and move. This is going to be more like the Mother of all currency pegs breaking. It will be sudden and violent.
 

Zed

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This is Not going to be a nice technical breakout and move. This is going to be more like the Mother of all currency pegs breaking. It will be sudden and violent.

I do get the sense that when direction is established you will need to all ready be in position. I can see it turning into a scramble... quiet markets have a way of getting noisy fast.

Technically speaking any strong breakout is a nice breakout.
 

Zed

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Listening further...

Raoul -> "Total global debt is @ 400% of world GDP"

...then they break down into laughter and ask what do you do with that? The world has never been here before and the Central Bankers are delusional if they think they can do what it takes to get it back under control. We can't stand 2% rates let alone 20% (aka Volcker).

Me-> It's like listening to goldbugs 15 years ago, only these guys are way more mainstream!
 

Zed

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Raoul has gone from being irresponsibly long BTC to 5% BTC --> 'BTC feeling like "boomer coin" in this cycle!'

So much for the new gold...?!

Apparently Solana is the one to chase now, ETH is yesterday already?!


So on and so forth... until when?

Solana is better, but then is there a next step?

Personally I think that if any of these models knocks it out of the park they will be officially adopted and rebranded by nation states while the original gets the arse.

When this stuff truly threatens the man the man will fight back hard.
 

Zed

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Nine months of Solana over BTC and ETH. Yeah well, Bit what? The advantages of coming of a zero base...

1631247483315.png
 

jelly

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I don't see what the fuss is about. If you don't think this is the right time to buy, then just don't buy.
Some of us have learned not to catch a falling knife, and have a strategy of buying on certain levels on pullbacks, with a medium-long term bullish view in mind. Right now appears to be a great entry point at a favorable level. Could it go lower? Sure. But with that mindset you'll never buy.

I entered some positions the past couple weeks in the miners, both leveraged and non-leveraged. The leveraged positions I'll exit if it drops below the previous lows, wich aren't much lower. The risk-reward ratio right now is extremely favorable, and I'm not out much if I'm wrong. In a game that relies strictly on probabilities and not science, the current probabilities look very favorable to me right now, and not something I want to pass up. If you don't like it, so what? If you think I'm wrong, atleast provide technical or fundamental reasons why other than "it can always go lower."
 

dpong

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Some of us are talking about long/medium term (like 5 years), while others of us are looking at much shorter timeframes. It has been my experience that defining the timeframes we are discussing can eliminate something like 95% of misunderstandings.

[Something like the difference between looking at something through a microscope vs. a telescope.]
 

Lancers32

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I don't see what the fuss is about. If you don't think this is the right time to buy, then just don't buy.
Some of us have learned not to catch a falling knife, and have a strategy of buying on certain levels on pullbacks, with a medium-long term bullish view in mind. Right now appears to be a great entry point at a favorable level. Could it go lower? Sure. But with that mindset you'll never buy.

I entered some positions the past couple weeks in the miners, both leveraged and non-leveraged. The leveraged positions I'll exit if it drops below the previous lows, wich aren't much lower. The risk-reward ratio right now is extremely favorable, and I'm not out much if I'm wrong. In a game that relies strictly on probabilities and not science, the current probabilities look very favorable to me right now, and not something I want to pass up. If you don't like it, so what? If you think I'm wrong, atleast provide technical or fundamental reasons why other than "it can always go lower."


You can post charts that show miners are under valued compared to the metals but so what. Does not make the miners a buy because as you said it can go lower. Going out on the lows of the week. IF you are bullish you might take a stab next week in the gap or lower. Not really exciting to me at this point though.

SILJ_2021-09-10_17-25-50.png
 

Oldmansmith

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I don't see what the fuss is about. If you don't think this is the right time to buy, then just don't buy.
Some of us have learned not to catch a falling knife, and have a strategy of buying on certain levels on pullbacks, with a medium-long term bullish view in mind. Right now appears to be a great entry point at a favorable level. Could it go lower? Sure. But with that mindset you'll never buy.

I entered some positions the past couple weeks in the miners, both leveraged and non-leveraged. The leveraged positions I'll exit if it drops below the previous lows, wich aren't much lower. The risk-reward ratio right now is extremely favorable, and I'm not out much if I'm wrong. In a game that relies strictly on probabilities and not science, the current probabilities look very favorable to me right now, and not something I want to pass up. If you don't like it, so what? If you think I'm wrong, atleast provide technical or fundamental reasons why other than "it can always go lower."
I don't think that anybody is criticizing you, I'm sure not. It might be a great time to enter. But I would feel more optimistic if the broad market had been tanking instead of near all time highs. The miners are positioned very poorly in the event of an overall market dump.
 

Zed

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The miners are positioned very poorly in the event of an overall market dump.

I dunno, the complete lack of interest should just make them more resilient in a dump. I've watched certain juniors virtually flat-line before, during and after a market dump. Basically they were so unloved that the only investors that owned them at the time believed in the project long term. If miners are out of favor then logically there is way less heat to come out of them... it might just be a good thing if the whole market poops, they may not get sucked down as hard or stay down as long. In 2008 gold stocks bounced out first and fastest and that was with most things 'fully priced' before the event.
 

Zed

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In 2007 GDX was double it's current level with gold ~$800 lower! Keep that in mind.
 

Lancers32

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Bull market price go up. Seeing that now?

E-9ul14VEAA4sc4.jpg
 

Zed

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Good trader buy low.

Did I use too many words?
 

Voodoo

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Good trader buy low.

Did I use too many words?

This is where the Readit crowd and the APE's learned really quickly.

Buy Dips.

HOLD
 

Zed

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This is where the Readit crowd and the APE's learned really quickly.

Buy Dips.

HOLD

That charts shows a couple of low risk entry areas with great risk management potential. Something a real trader looks for.
 

JayDubya

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Is Anyone Willing to Call the Top of the Everything Bubble?

https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/is-anyone-willing-to-call-top-of.html

Can extremes become too extreme to continue higher? We're about to find out.

Is anyone willing to call the top of the Everything bubble? The short answer is no. Anyone earning money managing other people's money cannot afford to be wrong, and so everyone in the herd prevaricates on timing. The herd has seen what happens to those who call the top and then twist in the wind as the market continues rocketing higher.

Money managers live in segments of three months. If you miss one quarter, the clock starts ticking. If the S&P 500 beats your fund's return a second time because you were bearish in a bubble, your doom is sealed.

When the bubble finally pops and everyone but a handful of secretive Bears is crushed, the rationalization will cover everyone's failure: "nobody could have seen this coming."

Actually, everyone can see it coming, but the tsunami of central bank liquidity has washed away any semblance of rationality. My friend and colleague Zeus Y. recently summarized the consequences of this decoupling of markets and reality:

"I used to be with the Bears until the uncoupling was complete when the Fed started guaranteeing non-investment grade junk bonds. At that point, any semblance of sanity, much less probity, much less integrity was gone. Rinse and repeat with digital dollars going into the tens and even hundreds of trillions of dollars.

For two decades we fiscal sanity-ists have been assuming SOME baseline reality. I see none in sight and still plenty of assets to plunder and pump and still resources to suck and suckers to shake down. The system is running hot and wild on its own algorithms, and actual people are lying back and simply lapping up the "passive" income created by delusion-made-reality.

With that much will and that much corruption, that much greed and that much lust, with a strong dose of fear and opportunism to flavor this toxic brew, I do not see the entity slouching away from Bethlehem anytime soon (yes, Keats reference). The falcon has long since not heard the falconer in its widening gyre, but we have virtual falcons now that will do whatever we think it is we want (which has been force fed back to us).

Until this mass delusion and psychosis breaks by whatever means-- financial crash, rebellion against all the BS and return to simple community, we are only going to see digital currency, stocks, and pretty much everything go up as tens of trillions of concocted dollars try to find some asset to ride.

This will (continue to) drive the stock market, gold, cybercurrency, land, everything to unsustainable and giddy heights. I no longer think a Bear market is even possible. Just soaring "valuations" based on funny money and an unpredictable crash at some point in the future WAY longer than it ever should be if we had a sane world."


Well said, Zeus. It is now irrational to expect markets to ever reconnect with reality. That said, if you glance at the charts below, this is about as a good a time as any for the bubble to burst. Recall that bubbles don't need a specific trigger-event to pop, they simply stop going up.

Regression to trend: insane extreme.

stock-extremes9-21a.png


S&P 500 stocks over 10 times annual sales: insane extreme.

SPX-over-10X-sales9-21.jpg


S&P 500 Everything Bubble compared to bubbles #1 and #2: insane extreme.

SPX-long-term9-21a.jpg


S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving average: insane extreme.

SPX-above-200MA4-21a.jpg


Billionaire wealth increasing in the Everything Bubble: insane extreme.

wealth-top400a.jpg


Are there any limits on irrationality? Apparently not. But there are still limits in the real world and central bank liquidity is distorting the real world, not just the imaginary world.

At the grave risk of twisting in the wind as the S&P 500 goes to 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, let's call September 2021 the top of the Everything Bubble. Can extremes become too extreme to continue higher? We're about to find out.