• "Spreading the ideas of freedom loving people on matters regarding metals, finance, politics, government and many other topics"

The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
30 is only a number.


FAAO0_pVQAUcCBn.png
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
Mid 2008 panic levels on GDX with gold then sub 1K. Yet here we are with the best part of $800 higher gold and people expect lower gold stock prices.

1632446904321.png
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
FWIW the 2015 to 2019 period looks like a big accumulation phase. Huge volume.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
Or maybe the miners are just plain crap.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
Or maybe Gold wants to go down?
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
1,312
Reaction score
1,543
A look at just GDX.
Weekly chart. If this is a simple A-B-C correction in terms of Elliot wave, where waves A=C are equal, then we've got a few more dollars downside in GDX.
Fib #'s - the .618 retracement would put us at roughly 27.50-$28 area.
Something to think about...
gdx.png
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,279
Reaction score
3,982
Someone hasn't been reading any financial statements lately.
The prices produced by action in the markets are not anywhere close to being rational. Price action are more like a social phenomenon, in my opinion. If the markets were rational, then expecting financial statements to move the markets would also be rational. I'm just not sure that is the case anymore.

As an example, anyone paying any attention to P/E ratios in the last few years has been left in the dust, right?
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
The prices produced by action in the markets are not anywhere close to being rational. Price action are more like a social phenomenon, in my opinion. If the markets were rational, then expecting financial statements to move the markets would also be rational. I'm just not sure that is the case anymore.

As an example, anyone paying any attention to P/E ratios in the last few years has been left in the dust, right?

The time to get interested in passive index investing is when they are all value pickers and the market is depressed. The time to start looking for value is when they are all passive index followers and the market is irrationally exuberant.

Value and active management will come back in a big way sooner or later.

Or maybe the miners are just plain crap.

Powerful argument right there, changed my mind totally. I think I will just get long the FANG's.

Or maybe Gold wants to go down?

Silly me, of course it does. Makes perfect sense... it's yearning to go too, what's that Robert, $200 you say?, OK then, lets ask Harry for a second opinion.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
I miss old cubed... I wonder if he can still walk alright?

1632464994209.png
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
A look at just GDX.
Weekly chart. If this is a simple A-B-C correction in terms of Elliot wave, where waves A=C are equal, then we've got a few more dollars downside in GDX.
Fib #'s - the .618 retracement would put us at roughly 27.50-$28 area.
Something to think about...
View attachment 226127

It looks to be a bit of a zone around that 30 area. If it breaks below it could be hard work and more time to crawl up over it again. I'm not sure how the depreciating nature of ETF's factors into classic support and resistance ideas. GDX 30 today isn't what GDX 30 2008 was in market value terms. Loses about 0.51% per year... about ~6.63% lower in value terms since 2008. Probably should look @ the HUI and the XAU more than GDX.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
I'm hoping that the Federal Gov goes after Dan for this and locks him up!

 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
Someone hasn't been reading any financial statements lately.
Someone hasn't been looking at stock prices lately. Scoreboard.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
A look at just GDX.
Weekly chart. If this is a simple A-B-C correction in terms of Elliot wave, where waves A=C are equal, then we've got a few more dollars downside in GDX.
Fib #'s - the .618 retracement would put us at roughly 27.50-$28 area.
Something to think about...
View attachment 226127

By George I think he's got it. Might be time to buy.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
I miss old cubed... I wonder if he can still walk alright?

View attachment 226137
The time to get interested in passive index investing is when they are all value pickers and the market is depressed. The time to start looking for value is when they are all passive index followers and the market is irrationally exuberant.

Value and active management will come back in a big way sooner or later.



Powerful argument right there, changed my mind totally. I think I will just get long the FANG's.



Silly me, of course it does. Makes perfect sense... it's yearning to go too, what's that Robert, $200 you say?, OK then, lets ask Harry for a second opinion.

Yeah trolling. What makes perfect sense is holding to 0 and BTW that comment was not directed at you.

I thought this was a bunch of adult males some of whom might have been in a locker room but I guess not. Take a joke. Widows and orphans are laughing at bugz and yeah you should have bought the SM.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
It looks to be a bit of a zone around that 30 area. If it breaks below it could be hard work and more time to crawl up over it again. I'm not sure how the depreciating nature of ETF's factors into classic support and resistance ideas. GDX 30 today isn't what GDX 30 2008 was in market value terms. Loses about 0.51% per year... about ~6.63% lower in value terms since 2008. Probably should look @ the HUI and the XAU more than GDX.
Ya think. It only bounced off 30 how many times.
 

Jodster

Always wrong
Silver Miner
Joined
Apr 4, 2010
Messages
1,447
Reaction score
1,716
Or maybe the miners are just plain crap.
The miners are only worth what the shiny stuff says it's worth. Silver at $38 and gold at $2200 would change the narrative significantly.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
What you say?


 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
The miners are only worth what the shiny stuff says it's worth. Silver at $38 and gold at $2200 would change the narrative significantly.
Even more if Silver goes to $150.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
Someone hasn't been looking at stock prices lately. Scoreboard.

Price v value... what can I say. It looks the same at every overvaluation point when there is someplace else you should really be.

No. I don't like losing money. But feel free.

Taking a draw down when it makes sense isn't losing money, it's a part of many trades. I rarely make perfect entries.

Yeah trolling. What makes perfect sense is holding to 0 and BTW that comment was not directed at you.

So you said and nobody said different.

I thought this was a bunch of adult males some of whom might have been in a locker room but I guess not. Take a joke. Widows and orphans are laughing at bugz and yeah you should have bought the SM.

You don't make jokes, you do butt hurt passive aggressive swipes. Adult?

Ya think. It only bounced off 30 how many times.

Not every post is aimed at alpha traders like you. It was just a wider picture for anyone that hasn't backed up and taken a look in a while.
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
The miners are only worth what the shiny stuff says it's worth. Silver at $38 and gold at $2200 would change the narrative significantly.

They are at a real low multiple at the moment, if the majority of the market had not been sucked into passive funds chasing indexes we'd be looking @ a higher price. This passive 'trend' is actually a major dislocation that has to end in tears... at some point. It's been epic and I guess these things can always go longer than you'd think but somehow the flows will reverse. These things never run forever! I remember scratching my head for the last couple of years on the .com thang. I just didn't get it, and I was told routinley I had it wrong.... then one day, splat, into the windscreen, suddenly it mattered.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
No need to argue. I try not to take myself too seriously. If you are offended I apologize my bad but you gotta admit at some point the narrative becomes a sad parody of itself.

Doug Casey is a pretty smart guy. Wonder if he is still on this. Might be a pick up at these levels by the looks of the chart. Even better at $6.50 or so if we get there. Use stops. Use stops you can be life changing wrong. Yes I have heard hold to 0 is a plan. Not mine.
MTA_2021-09-24_07-18-24.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: Zed

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
Hey but the bull thing up the date... now that was funny!
 

Zed

Argent
Midas Supporter
Mother Lode
GIM Hall Of Fame
Joined
Mar 30, 2010
Messages
21,683
Reaction score
24,631
you gotta admit at some point the narrative becomes a sad parody of itself.

This is a precious metals forum. I trade a shed load of other stuff locally, mainly on technical systems but not mechanical like WTT. I keep that stuff off the forum because it would just bore people here, hell it bores me. Here I try and stay constructive given the nature of the forum even if I think it is going south. Shit canning things isn't helping, making a well reasoned bearish call is a better way to go.

Anyway... big picture I think we go higher, alot higher but I'm really unsure about the whole Dollar Milkshake theory... I think Brent is right and I can reason why gold goes with the USD but the initial period might be pretty rough for gold. That said the metals are hardly hot right now and it might not send them significantly lower. Prior to 2008 damn near everything was priced for perfection so we don't have that this time. Anyway... this time I'm not so sure, I think there may be some surprises here so I'm going each way, buying weakness and rolling back when needed. Not normally a preferred approach but hell, look at this market, listen to the macro guys and the value pickers... they are all fucking mystified... nothing matters anymore! Until that day it does... I need at least some money on the gold table prior to that day. Well, over and above the grand old holdings, they are core for the foreseeable.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC


A lot of stocks in the sector look like this. This is why you have to use stops on every trade. If you think you know more than the market you're dead long term. What is going on makes no sense unless Johnson is right about the buck.
FABYQ9OVcAoeNmI.jpg
 

savvydon

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
Dec 14, 2010
Messages
4,299
Reaction score
5,239
The lunatic fringe is populated by a bunch of misfit outcasts. some are more prickly than others...


... but Lancers plays the best music.
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,279
Reaction score
3,982
@dpong what was it you said about not being a troll?
Ever hear of busting balls? Think New Jersey and you'll get the picture. If you read it that way.... it's more like gentle seduction.

[Thick skin lotion. Apply liberally.]
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,279
Reaction score
3,982
Some wish to bottom fish. Some prefer a trend instead. How shall we decide once and for all which view is right?

[We won't. But let's have fun along the way.]
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,279
Reaction score
3,982
The prices produced by action in the markets are not anywhere close to being rational. Price action are more like a social phenomenon, in my opinion. If the markets were rational, then expecting financial statements to move the markets would also be rational. I'm just not sure that is the case anymore.

As an example, anyone paying any attention to P/E ratios in the last few years has been left in the dust, right?
@jelly By the way, I'm just making conversation. Not busting balls, even.

The guys I follow recently are all trend followers, so they don't care about financials or "value" or anything like that. They just wait for a trend and then jump onboard. So that leaves my way of thinking different from value investors or financial analysts. All we guys care about is price and price direction, that's it. It is a very different way of looking at things, which is valid, just like other ways of looking at things can also be valid.
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
$11.80 retraces half of the move off the March 2020 lo. Low so far today is $11.93.
SILJ_2021-09-24_09-52-19.png
 

Lancers32

Site Supporter
Site Supporter
Platinum Bling
Joined
May 10, 2020
Messages
3,541
Reaction score
4,743
Location
NC
Question is is this it for the downside or do we test the bottom of that big green candle from July 2020? Possible we get buyable bottoms Autumn Equinox.
PSLV_2021-09-24_10-03-34.png
 

jelly

Silver Miner
Seeker
Joined
Dec 6, 2010
Messages
1,312
Reaction score
1,543
@jelly By the way, I'm just making conversation. Not busting balls, even.

The guys I follow recently are all trend followers, so they don't care about financials or "value" or anything like that. They just wait for a trend and then jump onboard. So that leaves my way of thinking different from value investors or financial analysts. All we guys care about is price and price direction, that's it. It is a very different way of looking at things, which is valid, just like other ways of looking at things can also be valid.
Well, you are correct. There's a reason Jesse Livermore studied human emotions and not mathematics. Sentiment pushes stock direction more than value does...in the short and medium term. ESPECIALLY in a sector as volatile as the gold sector.

However, the richest people in the natural resource sector did not get rich from trading it. Rather, they invested in the right companies under the right management, watching the VALUE grow over 6+ years as those companies grew production. Often sitting through 50% haircuts in the process. If you've ever been involved in the business world, you'll know that the most money you'll ever make is by building something over the long haul. Not by speculating in and out. Besides, paying taxes on your position every year really destroys your wealth over the long term.

I see incredible value right here and have been buying. But I also see a high chance that we go lower yet, and I'll buy more if/when it does.
 

dpong

Site Supporter
Gold Chaser
Site Supporter
Joined
Jan 11, 2012
Messages
3,279
Reaction score
3,982
I have been 50% invested in the miners. Two positions, AG and SILJ. As of today, AG is still clinging above my very close stop-loss. SILJ moved below it but has climbed back above it. In any case any daily close below my stop loss levels and I'm out.

Personally, for myself, I cannot stomach a 50% haircut. Which is why I have gravitated to 1) Never bottom-fish (see a trend, instead), 2) Always use stop loss.

What I am saying is that I am dispositionally unable to trade the way you are suggesting. I'm glad it works for you and wishing you all the luck and fortune.