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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Abbott & Costello’s famous skit “Who’s on First Base.” Updated to COVID:


Bud: ‘You can’t come in here!’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Well because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick.’
Bud: ‘It doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘Well, why does that guy get to go in?’
Bud: ‘Because he’s vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But he’s sick!’
Bud: ‘It’s alright. Everyone in here is vaccinated.’
Lou: ‘Wait a minute. Are you saying everyone in there is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Yes.’
Lou: ‘So then why can’t I go in there if everyone is vaccinated?’
Bud: ‘Because you’ll make them sick.’
Lou: ‘How will I make them sick if I’m NOT sick and they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘But they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘So what the heck does the vaccine do?’
Bud: ‘It vaccinates.’
Lou: ‘So vaccinated people can’t spread covid?’
Bud: ‘Oh no. They can spread covid just as easily as an unvaccinated person.’
Lou: ‘I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. Look. I’m not sick.
Bud: ‘Ok.’
Lou: ‘And the guy you let in IS sick.’
Bud: ‘That’s right.’
Lou: ‘And everybody in there can still get sick even though they’re vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Certainly.’
Lou: ‘So why can’t I go in again?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘I’m not asking who’s vaccinated or not!’
Bud: ‘I’m just telling you how it is.’
Lou: ‘Nevermind. I’ll just put on my mask.’
Bud: ‘That’s fine.’
Lou: ‘Now I can go in?’
Bud: ‘Absolutely not?’
Lou: ‘But I have a mask!’
Bud: ‘Doesn’t matter.’
Lou: ‘I was able to come in here yesterday with a mask.’
Bud: ‘I know.’
Lou: So why can’t I come in here today with a mask? ….If you say ‘because I’m unvaccinated’ again, I’ll break your arm.’
Bud: ‘Take it easy buddy.’
Lou: ‘So the mask is no good anymore.’
Bud: ‘No, it’s still good.’
Lou: ‘But I can’t come in?’
Bud: ‘Correct.’
Lou: ‘Why not?’
Bud: ‘Because you’re unvaccinated.’
Lou: ‘But the mask prevents the germs from getting out.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but people can still catch your germs.’
Lou: ‘But they’re all vaccinated.’
Bud: ‘Yes, but they can still get sick.’
Lou: ‘But I’m not sick!!’
Bud: ‘You can still get them sick.’
Lou: ‘So then masks don’t work!’
Bud: ‘Masks work quite well.’
Lou: ‘So how in the heck can I get vaccinated people sick if I’m not sick and masks work?’
Bud: ‘Third base.
 

Zed

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Silver COT.

The phat position is commercial short. Small specs are down near their normal lows, large specs are not much higher... looking like the juice has been largely squeezed out of this!

1632812600584.png
 

Zed

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Another push to setup the Comex...

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Zed

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Comex time... buy?!

1632831914701.png
 

savvydon

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Dollar is breaking higher. I think we are getting close to tradeable bottom in metals/miners. We are certainly at a good place to stack. 2c
 

Lancers32

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Hand grenades and horse shoes. Gonna wait a bit on the pm complex.
 

Lancers32

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Interesting spot here. Or we drop another 20% maybe. MTA similar but a gap slightly under current prices might get filled.
AG_2021-09-28_09-35-15.png
 

jelly

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Silver is just hanging on by a thread. If it goes below $22, watch out below!

In other news, seems the oil/gas sector is the place to be right now.
 

Lancers32

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SILJ low $11.80.
SILJ_2021-09-28_10-31-22.png
 

Lancers32

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Lance Lewis over at Twitter. GDX Put/Call Ratio 0.18 people buying calls at a heavy rate something you don't want to see if you are bullish.
 

Lancers32

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Silver is just hanging on by a thread. If it goes below $22, watch out below!

In other news, seems the oil/gas sector is the place to be right now.

August 11th overnite low was $21.50. So you are bearish now?
 

Lancers32

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Goldman says commodity bull is in first inning. cool: You can choose to selectively believe this house or not. Meanwhile U shares are approaching nearby lows.
 

Lancers32

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In the headlines.

FAYbLcMVgAstJRu.png
 

Lancers32

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Someone get Gary Strunk and White. Jeez. No parabolic move coming any time soon.

 

Lancers32

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UUUU right at the halfway point of the move. $6.30
UUUU_2021-09-28_11-53-02.png
 

jelly

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August 11th overnite low was $21.50. So you are bearish now?
I'm on the fence, waiting for clearer direction. I did nibble on a gold miner today, starting a new position in a miner I've been watching for a while. Should be a double even if gold goes sideways.
Silver miners are flagging out on the hourly chart, could be very bearish. Will post a chart if I get time.
 

dpong

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dpong

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I'm 25% long the miners holding only AG. AG currently trading at 11.76 with my stop loss at 11.50. Very surprised it hasn't taken it out yet. I suspect I won't be long long.
 

Lancers32

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Looks like a failed secondary rally. Pretty text book but you never know.

BTCUSD_2021-09-28_14-41-43.png
 

Lancers32

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I'm 25% long the miners holding only AG. AG currently trading at 11.76 with my stop loss at 11.50. Very surprised it hasn't taken it out yet. I suspect I won't be long long.

$11.47 low so far today a logical place to buy with a close stop. Possible we see low 9's if we don't hold around here. Bears are bearish bulls are less confident I can't say sentiment favors a close your eyes and buy but it seems kind of late to be a seller now unless you think we are in a bear market.
AG_2021-09-28_14-44-57.png
 

dpong

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$11.47 low so far today a logical place to buy with a close stop. Possible we see low 9's if we don't hold around here. Bears are bearish bulls are less confident I can't say sentiment favors a close your eyes and buy but it seems kind of late to be a seller now unless you think we are in a bear market.
For me it is below 11.50 at the close, this is my stop. Currently back up to 11.73. I gotta take one trade at a time, so this is my stop loss on this trade.

If I get stopped out I will continue watching for something that looks like the beginning of a new trend. I will never buy the bottom, and I don't care.
 

Lancers32

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For me it is below 11.50 at the close, this is my stop. Currently back up to 11.73. I gotta take one trade at a time, so this is my stop loss on this trade.

If I get stopped out I will continue watching for something that looks like the beginning of a new trend. I will never buy the bottom, and I don't care.

Yep I know that.
 

Lancers32

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MAG Silver with 15 minutes left a bullish engulfing.
MAG_2021-09-28_15-44-29.png
 

Lancers32

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Like shooting fish in a barrel right? Yesterday Silver up the shares spent all day giving back gains. Today Silver weak but it looks like the shares are going to experience at least a relief rally from here. MAG strongest of all AG and SILJ holding minor supports. Problem playing MAG is the rally off today's bottom went so far that there is quite a bit of risk in the trade. Not the worst place to enter if you have a long term horizon.
 

Zed

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dpong

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A side trip..

It seems so crazy to me that I watch that podcast, too. I agree with them about 80% and completely disagree with the about 20%.
 
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Zed

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It seems so crazy to me that I watch that podcast, too. I agree with them about 80% and completely disagree with the about 20%.

At least they try to reason things out, it's a refreshing change from mainstream which holds my attention for about 2 or 3 hours A YEAR now. Mainstream is dead for anyone who thinks...

2c FWIW.
 

Zed

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Au-myn

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U S 30 Year Treasury Yield bounces off its Bullish support line and issues a buy signal on a Bullish Signal formation at 20.5 on
this 3 x .50 scale Point & Figure chart.

30y.png
 

Zed

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Ideally BTC holds up here abouts... sofa sogood. Break down here and we could test the lows for the year.

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