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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Same time, same price action.
 

BeefJerky

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Anyone have an idea of the odds for platinum to get down to 850 or below?
 

savvydon

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Anyone have an idea of the odds for platinum to get down to 850 or below?
Certainly can't give you odds but if there is a market crash or correction and the threat of a general worsening economic downturn then platinum may get caught in the downdraft. Generally gold is the most immune to these types of moves because it is mainly a monetary metal. Silver has a foot in the monetary camp and one in the industrial camp. Platinum and palladium are the most susceptible to economic downturn. If the auto industry turns sharply lower than this might be perceived as sharply reduced demand for these two metals.

Long and short of it is I don't have a clue, but I think everything is on the table here. I don't really know what was going on behind the scenes to make palladium run from less than half the price of platinum to more than double, but at some point you have to think of the possibility of reversion to the mean. Long term I still think platinum looks enticing at these levels. 2c
 

dpong

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savvydon

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That's the stuff, man!
Amazing how much swing and bite these guys folded into a five minute song performed by a bunch of meekly smiling fellows in suits.
 
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Lancers32

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Gold Silver Ratio getting hit today again. Logic would seem to dictate this can't go on forever.


FAdGtisWYAA0HPf.png
 

Lancers32

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From SBTV


 

Lancers32

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Francis Hunt.

 

Lancers32

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Still early but the Silver shares are holding up fairly well. MAG broke back to yesterday's lows and held so far. Would be interesting to see how it goes if Silver breaks $21.50 here.
 

Lancers32

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The risk is 4%.


PSLV_2021-09-29_10-00-18.png
 

Lancers32

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GDX Put Call Ratio still very bearish. Too much call buying.
 

Lancers32

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McPugh. I thought this guy was dead.


 

savvydon

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GDX Put Call Ratio still very bearish. Too much call buying.
I bought a few today. RSI is under 27.

Also bought some slightly out of the money calls in SLV for 1/24. Let's see these feckers step on silver's throat for the next 2+ years.
 

savvydon

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McPugh. I thought this guy was dead.


I used to subscribe. Then I realized I can lose my money just as easily as he can help me lose it.
 

dpong

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Daddy say: That's going to leave a mark.

AG_2021-09-29_13-26-28.png
 

Lancers32

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$28 an ounce for junk 90. Gotta run pretty hard just to break even at this price.

 

dpong

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I am 0% invested in the miners.
 

jelly

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I think it's fair to say that things look ugly now
 

Zed

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Breaking: Groundhogs are dying all over the country as a boredom pandemic sweeps the nation. Some are saying it's not a real pandemic and that the majority of deaths are misreported cases of substance abuse. Either way authorities are concerned that next season will see a dearth of working groundhogs as death and early retirement takes a heavy toll.

external-content.duckduckgo.com.jpg


That is all.

Get back to doing the same thing you where prior to this notice!
 

Zed

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ASX goldies giving back ~1% after yesterdays ~3% net gains.
 

Zed

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Bigger picture.. we are nearer the numbers that produce a rally in gold stocks than anything else.

HUI with SPX/HUI ratio below.

1632968682180.png


Bigger picture.

1632968960146.png


Waiting for that ratio to tick down. The ratio low is ~ 2, currently @ 20 odd, 2000 bear market lows hit 40 odd. Looking @ major support in the SPX and 2400 looks about right, a 2 ratio gives us HUI 1200... 5/6 x the index from here.... but it will not be that neat. SPX and HUI rallied together last time. This time it's different?
 

Zed

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Scroll in about 1/2 the way for MO. @ 7 min mark.

 

Zed

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2c FWIW.

If the move in gold is real it tends to be happening in both AUD and USD, today we are not seeing that + someone is buying Aussie gold stocks, albeit gently. Maybe the Aussie is about to fall out of bed but in that case Aussie gold stocks aren't a protection in the near term.

Aussie Gold with USD Gold on top.

1632970787555.png
 

Zed

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Zed

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BTC on the edge of a breakout?

1632972308059.png
 

Zed

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GDX Put Call Ratio still very bearish. Too much call buying.

Been looking at the options in Gold for expiry on the 26th Oct.

Seems to me that if we go south from here too many Puts will be too far in the money.

Somewhere in the $1775 to $1800 would probably see the max number of calls and puts out of the money. I've not done the math, just eyeballing it but...

I'm guessing that they will make that so.
 

Zed

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I made a spread sheet... on the 26th Oct, going on the current OI, a strike of 1802 is about the balancing point.

I wonder if that means a damn thing?
 

Zed

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Option expiry on the 23 of November, going on the current OI, a strike of 1998 is about the balancing point.
 

savvydon

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I made a spread sheet... on the 26th Oct, going on the current OI, a strike of 1802 is about the balancing point.

I wonder if that means a damn thing?
Guess it depends on how much of an iron hand the bankers/commercials really rule with. Cot numbers for Friday should be interesting, but I don't think they will reflect the ass whooping silver took yesterday.
 

savvydon

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Option expiry on the 23 of November, going on the current OI, a strike of 1998 is about the balancing point.
So you mean to tell me the crowd is betting on gold to move up that far that fast in a month's time?
 

Zed

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Guess it depends on how much of an iron hand the bankers/commercials really rule with. Cot numbers for Friday should be interesting, but I don't think they will reflect the ass whooping silver took yesterday.

No, only up till Tuesday.
 

Zed

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So you mean to tell me the crowd is betting on gold to move up that far that fast in a month's time?

That's the mid point of the option activity at this time. I don't know if it is a significant number or just some useless math! We will see.