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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

savvydon

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Yes, and that remains to be seen:

 

dpong

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Here is more talk on this "mass formation" or better said, mass hypnosis hypothesis. Maybe this explains why my doctor was yelling at me yesterday for no reason.

[The video is in English.]

 

dpong

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So here is what I came up with to visualize my Weekend Trend Trader distribution curve.

[There are no *rules* I can do whatever I like.]

Here we see an inner and outer bell curve. The outer bell curve is defined by the largest loss to the extreme left of the distribution. Backtesting shows that this kind of loss is exceedingly rare. [Though it does occur.] So we must respect the outer bell curve and we need to have wins that break out to the right of the outer bell curve, of which we have one to the extreme right of the distribution. Providence willing, we shall have more of those.

For the most part we can still have fun imagining the inner bell curve which holds most of the time. Having wins to the right of the inner bell curve are still very productive. So we can be interested and satisfied by those.

The distribution chart shown here is slightly under water for almost 2 years of trade. We have suffered a drawdown in 2021 that takes us back to about even overall.

Window_and_2020_Positions-16.jpg
 

Voodoo

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So here is what I came up with to visualize my Weekend Trend Trader distribution curve.

[There are no *rules* I can do whatever I like.]

Here we see an inner and outer bell curve. The outer bell curve is defined by the largest loss to the extreme left of the distribution. Backtesting shows that this kind of loss is exceedingly rare. [Though it does occur.] So we must respect the outer bell curve and we need to have wins that break out to the right of the outer bell curve, of which we have one to the extreme right of the distribution. Providence willing, we shall have more of those.

For the most part we can still have fun imagining the inner bell curve which holds most of the time. Having wins to the right of the inner bell curve are still very productive. So we can be interested and satisfied by those.

The distribution chart shown here is slightly under water for almost 2 years of trade. We have suffered a drawdown in 2021 that takes us back to about even overall.

View attachment 227785

Yeah, you can even see where the mean of that graph is not really where it should be located. Probably shifted over 3-4 bars. I think this is part of the bias of cutting losing trades off quickly.
 

dpong

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You are correct, the mean is to the left of that middle dividing line. That line represents neither winning nor losing. You can see on my statistics sheet that I have won around 40% of the time and lost around 60% of the time. This is just bad luck, as in theory we should win around 50% of the time. Just as in poker, bad luck or good luck only occur in the short term. In the long term that should all even out.

There is much room for improvement in these stats. And it will happen.

2020_Positions-11.jpg
 

dpong

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Yeah, you can even see where the mean of that graph is not really where it should be located. Probably shifted over 3-4 bars. I think this is part of the bias of cutting losing trades off quickly.
Unless you are a fundamentals "guru" I think you have to cut losing trades off quickly or else you will go broke. The approach I am taking here certainly assumes that I can't understand the fundamentals enough to be right most of the time. Trend following makes use of the discipline to sell your losers and let your winners run.
 

dpong

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You are correct, the mean is to the left of that middle dividing line. That line represents neither winning nor losing. You can see on my statistics sheet that I have won around 40% of the time and lost around 60% of the time. This is just bad luck, as in theory we should win around 50% of the time. Just as in poker, bad luck or good luck only occur in the short term. In the long term that should all even out.

There is much room for improvement in these stats. And it will happen.

View attachment 227788
To clarify a bit. Although we only win around 50% of the time, when we win we win more than we lose when we lose. What a confusing sentence. The win loss ratio is currently 1.51 meaning for each time we lose a dollar we win a dollar and 51 cents. Actually this is quite low due to bad luck. It should be more like 2 or 2.5 and eventually it shall be higher. I would be quite happy with win% of 50% with a Win/Loss ratio of around 2 to 2.5. That is what I'm eventually expecting to see.
 
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Lancers32

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Not confusing at all. Even if your win rate is 50% so long as your wins are of a greater % than your losses you make money.
 

Lancers32

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Big gap ups in the Silvers this morning. You want to see yesterday's highs hold on the retracement. Lots of times around 10:30 or an hour in you get a chance to get on board. Buying big green is not a good long term plan.
 
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Jodster

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Big gap ups in the Silvers this morning. You want to see yesterday's highs hold on the retracement. Lots of times around 10:30 or an hour in you get a chance to get on board. Buying big green is not a good long term plan.
Isn't Friday a traditional smack-down day? I'd be interested in the historical data.
 
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Lancers32

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The definition of insanity is BITW.
 

savvydon

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Buying big green is not a good long term plan.
True, but this morning has the feel of a reversal of sorts in the PM market. The sector has been clubbed to death during the past couple of months. Morale is down and weak hands have folded. This morning's bump is being attributed to sucky jobs data implying that Fed tapering may not occur quite so soon as had been earlier telegraphed. Still, the data was not that bad. I see it as cover for a move that was coming anyway. We may see some strength coming back into the sector, and the miners in particular.
 

Lancers32

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Could be but if you wanted to get long this week there were better opportunities. I would imagine people who bought higher will be looking to dump so no rush. Could be wrong I am in but nowhere near 100%.
 

Lancers32

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MTA weakest of the bunch. MAG AG SILJ only one not to hold yesterday's highs so far is MTA.
 

savvydon

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Could be but if you wanted to get long this week there were better opportunities. I would imagine people who bought higher will be looking to dump so no rush. Could be wrong I am in but nowhere near 100%.
...and, just like that, my reversal has been reversed.:hang:
 
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Lancers32

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And that is why you buy Big Red.
 

dpong

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Trend followers buy green. But not this time.
 

Lancers32

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I guess with the way GBTC is trading Greyscale has no intention of converting to a Bitcoin ETF.
 

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Bombed Out Gold Stocks Showing Relative Strength to the Metal​

David Erfle
Friday October 8th, 2021 09:48 EST

Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Just when I thought I was out……they pulled me back in.
Al Pacino – The Godfather Part 3

(Kitco News) - In August 2020, the price of gold rose to new records, heading above $2000 per ounce. After zooming to an all-time high and becoming technically extreme overbought, the gold price has been consolidating last years outsized gains for the past 14 months while gold stocks were sold aggressively into the end of Q3/2021. Sentiment has become black bearish in the mining space, as most late-comers to last year’s gold stock party gave up on their under-water positions into the final trading session of Q3 last Thursday.

 

Zed

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Zed

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Bombed Out Gold Stocks Showing Relative Strength to the Metal​

David Erfle
Friday October 8th, 2021 09:48 EST

Kitco Commentaries | Opinions, Ideas and Markets Talk
Just when I thought I was out……they pulled me back in.
Al Pacino – The Godfather Part 3

(Kitco News) - In August 2020, the price of gold rose to new records, heading above $2000 per ounce. After zooming to an all-time high and becoming technically extreme overbought, the gold price has been consolidating last years outsized gains for the past 14 months while gold stocks were sold aggressively into the end of Q3/2021. Sentiment has become black bearish in the mining space, as most late-comers to last year’s gold stock party gave up on their under-water positions into the final trading session of Q3 last Thursday.


HUI as % of Gold... appears to have broken the down trend. In this post 2000 bull market the HUI has topped out @ 62% of gold, currently 14%, that's 1100 HUI if gold stays here (4/5x) , 5K if gold hits 8K at the time. (20x!) The one thing gold will not do is stay here!

1633756956726.png
 
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Zed

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Long term in/out of favor chart. This appears to be a major market turn for a few years... 2-3 more?

1633757694047.png
 

Lancers32

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God David Hunter is one ugly white man.
 

Lancers32

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56K is a double off the 28K bottom BTC.
 

jelly

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I have a question for those who understand the real estate ETF's and trusts (REITs). What happens when there is a drawdown? Are they forced to sell the real estate and houses held in the fund? Similar to the GLD etf, where they have to liquidate the physical gold holdings during a sell off?
 

Zed

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I have a question for those who understand the real estate ETF's and trusts (REITs). What happens when there is a drawdown? Are they forced to sell the real estate and houses held in the fund? Similar to the GLD etf, where they have to liquidate the physical gold holdings during a sell off?

I'd say that the float is constant unlike GLD. When GLD sees a gold draw down from an authorized participant it removes the stock representing that gold. In the case of a REIT the stock is merely sold and just changes hands, there are no authorized participants like GLD. That is to say you can't redeem the real estate like you can silver and gold from SLV/GLD. From time to time they probably issue new stock but that would be to acquire new real estate so that should be backed in proportion. If they sell real estate the trust would merely have a cash holding. In the case that they had no other real estate they wanted to buy they could do a share buy back or a special dividend distribution. I guess they do whatever is tax effective in the US! So yeah, these REITs are just not the same as GLD/SLV.

I'm not a REIT expert but that is what I'd expect.
 

Zed

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Nasdaq looks like it might take another push down.

1633918455345.png
 

Zed

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More from the Doom Chicken...

 

Zed

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BTC looking like it will try for new highs soonish...

1633925388868.png


Target 71K over run 80K, this is BTC expect the overrun.
 

Goldhedge

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Now might be a good time to start buying junior miners... just a 'feeling' I got....

As the economy declines and gold enters as the only asset with no counter party risk the big boys will be looking to acquire the explorers, at least, historically that's been the case.
 

chieftain

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BTC looking like it will try for new highs soonish...

View attachment 228171

Target 71K over run 80K, this is BTC expect the overrun.

I'm not sure Zed, my inventories of NVIDIA 30-series video cards and AMD's latest are sitting at generation highs. It wasn't three months ago where a video card could not be had for love nor money.
 

Zed

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I'm not sure Zed, my inventories of NVIDIA 30-series video cards and AMD's latest are sitting at generation highs. It wasn't three months ago where a video card could not be had for love nor money.

The chart is what it is, 10K of congestion then this thing can run, a strong break out here and it can eat that 10K in one day. BTC is wild ride if nothing else. 60K is a bit of a hurdle, but not that huge really.
 

Zed

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Now might be a good time to start buying junior miners... just a 'feeling' I got....

As the economy declines and gold enters as the only asset with no counter party risk the big boys will be looking to acquire the explorers, at least, historically that's been the case.

Yeah, lets see if this relative strength means anything.
 

chieftain

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