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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Jodster

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A stock market melt up impact on gold stocks? Ideas? Do they get cheaper or do they get some cash flow as some of the market gets cautious and starts looking for under valued stocks?
Zed, first, thanks for your answer on Bonds. I wasn't aware of the plays behind the coupon, per se.
Secondly, I'm usually wrong on shit, but a LOT of podcasts, from people I respect, explain the near future as a mini-run on PM stock, then a crash, then to the moon. up/down/BIG up.

- Small rally in the PM sector through the end of October into early November, as budget debate happens in the capital. Gold good; dollar bad.
- Mid-November House and Senate issue new debt-ceiling and printing presses go whirrrr . . Dollar now good.
- Late November PM complex crashes as USD strengthens. Gold bad.
- December strong numbers as holiday/online shopping increases velocity of money. USD good.
- Q1 2022, Holiday hangover, interest, inflation, shortages = shitstorm. USD going bad.
- Q2 2022 commodities and PM stocks ramp up for epic run. Set new all-time high's. Strong Bullish rally in metals.

I'm guessing, but I feel this is the age of the contrarian play. Smart money will go against the grain. Early adapters on the bell curve.
 

dpong

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I've added a new Zedism to my lexicon...

"The left believe in evolution from the neck down and the right believe in evolution from the neck up"

... I kinda like it.

Worth the time if you are driving to work or mowing the cat or whatever...

Very worthwhile.
 
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Zed

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Computer issues, I'm probably going to swap windoze out for Linux. All things considered I think windoze has out stayed it's welcome. Service will be intermittent!
 

dpong

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Carl-Jung-quote.png
 

Zed

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Testing...

1634610380370.png


Cool.

Linux going... now I have just got to make all the little bits work!
 

Zed

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Dont forget when you have trouble,its the dam antivirus. I hate printers.:spaceship:

Yeah, the whole system hit the wall + they were forcing an upgrade that I wasn't that keen on so it's bye-bye Bill!
 

jelly

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Seems like much of the natural resource world has been talking about Uranium over the past few weeks AFTER the uranium miners jumped 100%+, but I think precious metals and the associated miners were the real buy. It's looking like the low is in
 

Lancers32

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Most jumped more like 50-60%. They were most definitely the buy the Silver stocks have yet to prove that.
 

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My point was that you buy low, not buy high. Uranium became the talking point AFTER it made its big move. In the meantime, silver was making a nice buyable low. The time to buy uranium was before it became the rage.
Rick Rule has made this point many times recently. People don't buy stocks when they are on sale, but rather after they have already moved higher.
 
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Zed

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Zed, first, thanks for your answer on Bonds. I wasn't aware of the plays behind the coupon, per se.

Yes, they trade like stocks with dividends. When they sell off the return is higher and they also tend to sell down harder than rally as people protect capital gain.

Secondly, I'm usually wrong on shit, but a LOT of podcasts, from people I respect, explain the near future as a mini-run on PM stock, then a crash, then to the moon. up/down/BIG up.

I'm seeing a lot of anticipation, TSLA to the moon stuff etc. If the stock melt up idea becomes reality then there is a possibility that gold stocks go with in a mild fashion. If the stock market then hits the wall then gold stock will give up recent gains so yeah up down could play out. If gold stocks stay down here it will be a very muted selloff come the time IMO. All depends how much heat is in the gold market at that point.

JMO etc...

- Small rally in the PM sector through the end of October into early November, as budget debate happens in the capital. Gold good; dollar bad.
- Mid-November House and Senate issue new debt-ceiling and printing presses go whirrrr . . Dollar now good.
- Late November PM complex crashes as USD strengthens. Gold bad.
- December strong numbers as holiday/online shopping increases velocity of money. USD good.
- Q1 2022, Holiday hangover, interest, inflation, shortages = shitstorm. USD going bad.
- Q2 2022 commodities and PM stocks ramp up for epic run. Set new all-time high's. Strong Bullish rally in metals.

I'm guessing, but I feel this is the age of the contrarian play. Smart money will go against the grain. Early adapters on the bell curve.

Could well be...

The biggest influence is the relative attractiveness of other markets, if there are 20% gains to be had in stocks then gold should lag. If the smart money is moving you should see volume in what should be weak sectors a.k.a price sensitive buying. Say they do go for gold on a market sell down then maybe you see the miners are a bit firmer than you'd think with higher volume as $ reposition.
 
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Zed

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The Gold Option median OI has moved to these strike prices...

November 1795
December 1950

1634688378933.png
 

Zed

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TSLA knocking on the door of the "market melt up" line... I kinda expect a cup and handle here as the bears should fight this for now.

1634690429406.png
 
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Zed

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Dated but of interest...

 

Zed

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Most jumped more like 50-60%. They were most definitely the buy the Silver stocks have yet to prove that.

This is a broad uranium industry ETF... so, I guess it depends where you drawn the start line... ~11 was quite doable for a time after the covid crapitulation. Between 100 and 200% was achievable without cherry picking the highs and lows.

1634691314892.png
 
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Lancers32

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My point was that you buy low, not buy high. Uranium became the talking point AFTER it made its big move. In the meantime, silver was making a nice buyable low. The time to buy uranium was before it became the rage.
Rick Rule has made this point many times recently. People don't buy stocks when they are on sale, but rather after they have already moved higher.

This is a broad uranium industry ETF... so, I guess it depends where you drawn the start line... ~11 was quite doable for a time after the covid crapitulation. Between 100 and 200% was achievable without cherry picking the highs and lows.

View attachment 229036

Yeah. The major Silver stocks are up by a factor of 4 off the March 2020 bottom and that's pretty good. UUUU and DNN closer to a factor of 10.
 

dpong

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TSLA. WTT issued a new buy signal at the end of last week. There are currently 4 TSLA trades on the chart, 3 closed and 1 new open trade.

[I'm trading the small caps from Russell 3000 now, so I won't be taking this trade.]


TSLA_2021-10-20_15-08-12.png
 

Zed

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TSLA. WTT issued a new buy signal at the end of last week. There are currently 4 TSLA trades on the chart, 3 closed and 1 new open trade.

[I'm trading the small caps from Russell 3000 now, so I won't be taking this trade.]


View attachment 229098
I think it's going to fly. Fundamentally it doesn't make that much sense to me but I think it's going to happen.
 

Zed

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If there is one thing that the cv episode has done it is to bring a mass of people to the sudden realization that there is something deeply wrong with the way this world is running.


Is it purely about greed? or is it about control? I'm fearing the later, it's kinda looking like the sociopaths have decided that there is only so much room on the planet and that they are going to decide who stays.
 

Zed

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Silver Daily... $25 looks like a pause point.

1634779999463.png
 

Zed

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Some Teddy rah rah...


Silver Eruption​


October 18, 2021

Silver purchased in retail forms tends to be held for long periods of time, often sometimes over a lifetime and passed on to heirs. To some extent that’s because of the rather few opportunities silver investors have had to cash in at high-enough prices. While silver has yet to visit price levels where most investors considered selling it, that day is surely coming and I believe most silver investors agree. This is one reason why silver investors have been remarkably tenacious in holding onto their silver.

It’s not just silver in retail form that is so tightly-held. Eighty percent of the world’s total silver bullion inventory of 2 billion ounces is tied up in the world’s silver ETFs or in the COMEX warehouses. That’s 1.6 billion ounces of all the 1000-ounce bars in existence. In the face of much steeper price declines than occurred in gold, the reduction in the holdings in the world’s silver ETFs has been nonexistent. While gold ETF holdings are at the same level they have been for years, silver ETF holdings are 500 million ounces more than they were at the start of 2020.

I’m leaving out the frequently-recurring phenomenon in silver whereby large investors have converted several hundred million of shares of SLV into non-disclosed physical silver ounces to avoid reporting requirements. The net effect of these conversions is to understate how closely-held is the world’s 2-billion-ounce inventory of silver bullion. In dollar terms, that’s less than a miniscule $50 billion or about $7 for each of the world’s citizens or about a third of an ounce on a per capita basis.

Silver prices have fallen more than gold prices, yet silver is more tightly held than gold. I’m very bullish on the prospects for much higher gold prices based upon the COMEX market structure (including uncovering the presence of a new gold whale in COMEX futures), but it is downright shocking how much stronger are investor holdings of silver. Silver bullion is the tightest and strongest-held of all commodities and investment assets, but that’s just for openers. It gets a lot better for those expecting sharply higher silver prices. That silver is so tightly-held is bullish enough, but now comes the really bullish part.

All we need is some minor price gains to $30 or less to get silver going on its inevitable journey to the heavens. In fact, the basic story of the decades-old COMEX price manipulation is simply to prevent the slightly higher prices that would set off the stampede into silver. But that manipulation is now older than the hills and the big commercial crooks have positioned themselves to withstand the full fury of the coming silver price surge. The biggest silver crook of all, JPMorgan and its friends and family, with many hundreds of millions of silver ounces, are set to make the most when the silver price goes boom.

Higher prices beget still higher prices. Try coming up with an alternative explanation to explain the upward trajectory in everything around us – stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, crypto’s and then try to explain silver sitting out the boom. Those currently holding silver make up such a tiny percentage of the investment world – way, way less than a fraction of one percent of total world financial assets – that when the silver bull really gets rolling, there will be ten times as many more new investors looking to buy than old investors looking to sell. So, all that’s missing for the silver price juggernaut to get rolling is some much smaller price pop to get the train in motion.

Ted Butler
 

Zed

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TNX Weekly: I wish I had volume on this one... nice looking potential reverse H&S pattern targeting trend.

1634798671208.png
 

Zed

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SPX: New highs... melt up on the way? Can 4537 become support here? Do the last of the shorts give up next week? Hot move on the way? OBV solid if not exceptional. Momentum still looking good.

1634849762340.png
 

Zed

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New highs for TSLA...

1634849963255.png
 

Zed

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Netflix in a solid trend..

1634850083343.png
 

Zed

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Commodities looking softer, roll to stocks?

1634850510077.png
 

Au-myn

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This is a small scale 3 x $5 P & F chart.

The breakout began with a Bullish Signal formation (light blue) followed by a Bullish Triple Top pattern. Today
a buy signal was given from another continuation pattern in the form of a Bullish Symmetrical Triangle with the buy
signal occurring at 1,790. So far Au is rising within the first ascending trend channel. Lets see if it holds up...


G.png
 
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Zed

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DXY testing support, rolling down in the wider time frames.

1634853992801.png
 

Zed

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TNX edging up over that neckline, not yet what I'd call convincing.

1634854121084.png
 

Zed

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BTC getting sold off the old highs. Looks like price has run away from volume a little bit. Looking for support ~60K looks OK.

1634854638806.png
 
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Zed

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Some Hedgeye if you are mowing the Cat this weekend...


 

gnome

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Commodities looking softer, roll to stocks?

View attachment 229243
Considering China is the world's biggest importer of commodities (also producer) and slower growth would be the best outcome, makes sense commodities might be topping out, at least for the time being.
 
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