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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Considering China is the world's biggest importer of commodities (also producer) and slower growth would be the best outcome, makes sense commodities might be topping out, at least for the time being.

I looked at the options on oil, they are suggesting $65 in a reasonably short time. Not sure I believe it but that is the math.
 

savvydon

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A stock market melt up impact on gold stocks? Ideas? Do they get cheaper or do they get some cash flow as some of the market gets cautious and starts looking for under valued stocks?
I think not really until the metals climb back out of the rut they have been thrust into. Gold above 1860-1920 and silver north of 26. Then, if the stawks are still booming you have to believe that miners catch a bid. Just a wag on my part...
 

gnome

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I looked at the options on oil, they are suggesting $65 in a reasonably short time. Not sure I believe it but that is the math.
I imagine at $80 oil producers are going to be falling over each other to open the spigots and grab cash. OPEC doesn't want oil at $100. Demand destruction and also brings unconventional oil sources into play. $65 more likely than $95, JMO.
 
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jelly

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I looked at the options on oil, they are suggesting $65 in a reasonably short time. Not sure I believe it but that is the math.
I was listening to a podcast a couple weeks ago, don't remember where, but the guy was a consultant or insider in the oil sector. He said he doesn't expect these prices to last. With good supply, we should see a fall down to more reasonable levels soon. Makes me wish I wrote down the details.
 

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I imagine at $80 oil producers are going to be falling over each other to open the spigots and grab cash. OPEC doesn't want oil at $100. Demand destruction and also brings unconventional oil sources into play. $65 more likely than $95, JMO.
Why wasn't this an issue the last time oil was at $130 BBL?
As long as Senile Joe is in the Whitehouse, there will be no new unconventional sources brought online, except for renewables and nuclear; both of which will take decades. Green New Deal, dont'cha know. Fracking is dead for now.
Therefore, not only will oil spike higher, but it will strengthen Saudi oil production, which strengthens the USD. We're going back to the Obama-era folks . . unless something unexpected happens.
 

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The Federal Reserve will ban policymakers from buying individual stocks following trading controversy​

https://markets.businessinsider.com...dual-stocks-bonds-trading-controversy-2021-10

  • Federal Reserve policymakers will no longer be able to purchase individual securities as part of rule changes outlined Thursday.
  • The changes follow stock-trading controversies by two Fed regional presidents who have stepped down.
  • Senior Fed officials will be limited to buying diversified investment vehicles, like mutual funds.
The Federal Reserve will ban policymakers from buying individual securities, the US central bank said Thursday in the wake of controversial trades by two regional presidents who have already stepped down.

New rules from the central bank's board will prohibit the purchase of individual securities and restrict active trading by policymakers as well as senior staff, according to a statement. Holding investments in individual bonds, agency securities - either directly or indirectly - or entering into derivatives will also be banned.

Senior Fed officials will be limited to buying diversified investment vehicles, like mutual funds. The board is also increasing the timeliness of reporting and public disclosure by policymakers and senior staff.

"These tough new rules raise the bar high in order to assure the public we serve that all of our senior officials maintain a single-minded focus on the public mission of the Federal Reserve," said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the statement. The changes will be incorporated in the coming months.

The tighter policy comes after Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan recently came under fire for stock purchases they made during the pandemic, which spurred the Fed to unleash massive stimulus measures. Both men in recent weeks have stepped down from their positions.

Critics raised questions about conflicts of interest in stock trading by Fed officials because of their roles in shaping monetary policy for the world's largest economy.

The Fed also said Thursday that policymakers and senior staff generally will be required to provide advance notice of 45 days for purchases and sales of securities. And they must receive prior approval for such moves and hold investments for at least one year. The Fed said the requirements are aimed at guarding against "even the appearance of any conflict of interest" in the timing of investment decisions.

Also, no purchases or sales will be allowed during periods of heightened financial market stress. Reserve Bank presidents must publicly disclose financial transactions within 30 days, putting them in line with current rules for board members and senior staff.

Kaplan made million-dollar trades in stocks, including Tesla and Amazon, according to a disclosure form provided by his bank that was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. Rosengren reportedly traded real estate investment trusts actively. Kaplan and Rosengren in September apologized and dumped their purchases.

Kaplan left on October 8 and addressed the controversy in a statement from the Dallas Fed. Rosengren resigned last month, citing health issues. Rosengren, whose term would've been up in June 2022, revealed he has a kidney condition and needs dialysis.
 

gnome

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Why wasn't this an issue the last time oil was at $130 BBL?
As long as Senile Joe is in the Whitehouse, there will be no new unconventional sources brought online, except for renewables and nuclear; both of which will take decades. Green New Deal, dont'cha know. Fracking is dead for now.
Therefore, not only will oil spike higher, but it will strengthen Saudi oil production, which strengthens the USD. We're going back to the Obama-era folks . . unless something unexpected happens.
Good question, I think the Saudis, etc learned from 2008. Though my assumptions are more intuitive than totally data based.
Let's see...

OK, first US oil supply...

Screen Shot 2021-10-22 at 8.49.59 AM.png


In 2008 when oil hit all time high (I think $145), US oil production had been in decline for decades, and pretty much had bottomed out. High oil price was a major factor triggering the great recession, and the economic crash caused an oil price crash into the $30's. And US oil production went on a steady uptrend, but slumped in 2015 as prices dropped from $110 back to the $30's. Then prices and production resumed the uptrend until covid crash. Who is president doesn't have much immediate effect on oil prices...just typical commodity cycles.

In 2018, the Saudi's mentioned wanting to keep oil in the $70-80 range, I'd guess maybe that's $80 - 90 range now.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-crude-in-70-to-80-band-sources-idUSKCN1LL07T

Also, key difference between 2008 and 2021 is electric vehicles offer an alternative to oil. Electric vehicles still make up a tiny portion of the global vehicle fleet - but EV sales are growing at 40% per year compounding. High oil prices change consumer choices and could hasten a permanent decline in oil prices.


“OPEC’s job will be harder in the future because of lower demand and rising non-OPEC production,” said Hasan Qabazard, OPEC’s head of research from 2006 to 2013 whose work now includes advising hedge funds and investment banks on OPEC policy.

One official, who works in energy studies in the oil ministry of a major OPEC member, said shocks to oil demand had in the past led to permanent changes in consumer behaviour. He said this time was unlikely to be different.

“The demand does not return to pre-crisis levels or it takes time for this to happen,” he said. “The main concern is that oil demand will peak in the next few years due to rapid technological advances, especially in car batteries.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-for-an-age-of-dwindling-demand-idUSKCN24T0KT

Again, jmo, but they want oil prices high but not so high it causes shock.
 

Lancers32

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Who would have guessed Bitcoin would experience a local top the day the ETF came on?:Build:
 

Zed

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Silver Forecast as of Friday 22/10 data.

26/10/2021$24.40
23/11/2021$31.75
23/02/2022$28.75

Silver action on the 22/10 = Hmmmmmmm....?!

silver.gif


Forecast Chart

1635125305809.png
 
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Zed

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Gold Forecast as of Friday 22/10 data.

26/10/2021$1795
23/11/2021$1900
26/01/2022$1845

Gold action on the 22/10 = Hmmmmmmm....?!

gold.gif


Forecast Chart
1635125358939.png
 
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Lancers32

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If this is a dip it is looking a bit like a developing cup and handle projecting 100K or so.

Regardless of how low it goes from here it will go much higher. They can't kill it.
 

gnome

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Regardless of how low it goes from here it will go much higher. They can't kill it.
Agree. Billionaires are in, hedge funds, congress critters and now institutional money...just too many stakeholders.
 

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Gold Forecast as of Friday 22/10 data.

26/10/2021$1795
23/11/2021$1900
26/01/2022$1845

Gold action on the 22/10 = Hmmmmmmm....?!



Forecast Chart
Just curious - is that based on the option data? or something else?
 
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gnome

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If this is a dip it is looking a bit like a developing cup and handle projecting 100K or so.
Do you think 100k number has been talked about so much as to become a self-fulfilling prophecy? (also key resistance level)
 
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Zed

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Do you think 100k number has been talked about so much as to become a self-fulfilling prophecy? (also key resistance level)
Maybe... I think it was originally worked out on some BTC fundamental, but it has been so talked about it has to be a psychological point like Gold 1K... a big old round number!
 

Zed

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Just curious - is that based on the option data? or something else?

Options, that is how they offset/manage futures positions.
 

Lancers32

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So now it seems like raising property taxes isn't the only way they can take back your house. Taxing unrealized gains on financial assets is crazy enough but can you imagine paying cap gains taxes on unrealized gains for a house you still own? You can bet if they say this would start with billionaires that it will eventually hit all of us.
 

Lancers32

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Starting in 1977 you could deduct $3000 in capital losses on your 1040 any number higher than that had to be carried forward. 45 years later and the number remains the same.
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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New York New York. So nice they named it twice.
 

Lancers32

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Uranium shares I follow all look like this. Higher highs in price lower RSI. May not mean anything...
CCJ_2021-10-25_10-26-18.png
 
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Jodster

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Any of you guys into riskier shit like DWAC or DWACW? Thoughts?
 

Lancers32

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FBLgOLlWEAcSgIO.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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Gonna regret not buying more Bitcoin but I just can't bring myself to do it.
 

Lancers32

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One of the benefits of being among the geriatric crowd. Actually at this back in the day.

 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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.

Under rated
 

Zed

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Silver on the other hand has moved to 24.45 for tomorrow and stayed @ 31.75 for the 23.11
 

Zed

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View attachment 229611View attachment 229611

Bought to for you by...

pfizer-eps-vector-logo-free-download-11574058915gh6uox1rpb.png
 

Zed

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I'd tend to use closes to draw the line and I'd use the obvious intermediate highs. Doing that the projected target is not too foul, a 100% move based on the last rally off trend meets the upper channel line @ 116K or so. These guys are insanely over the top bullish every step of the way, it just can't happen fast enough for them. I also have an issue with parallel lines on a log chart, never makes sense to me. 2c FWIW.

1635204664512.png
 

Lancers32

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Well Japan survived 2 nukes so we might have a slight chance once this guy is done. :hang:




Nah.