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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

JayDubya

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When it's all said and done, once Joe's finished with whatever it is Joe's doing, I think we might well wish that we had endured two nukes instead.
 

Lancers32

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I see the crackhead has escaped prosecution so far while the Ho is nowhere to be found. :blond: cool:
 

gnome

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No surprise a company that runs nuke plants thinks the future is more nuke plants.
Keeping older nuke plants working provides some of the cheapest baseload power available - good move!
Building new nuclear plants is the most expensive energy you could install. New nuclear power is basically non-competitive with coal, gas, solar or wind - barely even competitive with battery storage.

You'll be hard-pressed to find a pro-nuclear article that gives you any specifics about the most important factor: cost.
Nuclear power has been getting more expensive for decades.
Maybe the SMR's will result in some cost savings, maybe not. And we'll have to wait 10 years to find out.
Nukes will probably get a bid because it has some big proponents in government and a fervent faction of greenies.
But I don't think it really has much of a chance against gas, wind, solar and batteries.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/09/28/renewables-vs-nuclear-256-0/

Global nuclear power capacity including grew by just 400 MW in 2020, according to the latest annual edition of the World Nuclear Industry Status Report, published by French nuclear consultant Mycle Schneider. The lackluster results for nuclear compare to 256 GW of newly deployed renewable energy capacity last year, including 127 GW of PV and 111 of wind power.

“Nuclear power is irrelevant in today's electricity capacity market,” the report's main author, French nuclear consultant Mycle Schneider, told pv magazine, noting that power generation from nuclear power dropped by 4%, while non-hydro renewables increased by 13%.

According to the report, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of solar PV dropped by approximately 90% over the past few years, while the LCOE of nuclear energy climbed by around 33%.
 

gnome

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Cigarlover

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noting that power generation from nuclear power dropped by 4%, while non-hydro renewables increased by 13%.
I haven't read the entire article but non hydro renewables probably make up about 5% of the US energy needs. If that grew by 13% that is still less than 6% of the US energy needs.

If hydro and nuclear are ever going to be replaced there needs to be a breakthrough in new tech. The alternatives are to expensive to manufacture and maintain.
 

dpong

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Gold. Want to buy a 100 day breakout? Looking carefully at the chart, that could actually happen very soon.

[Maybe.]

GOLD_2021-10-26_04-39-45.png
 

gnome

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I haven't read the entire article but non hydro renewables probably make up about 5% of the US energy needs. If that grew by 13% that is still less than 6% of the US energy needs.

If hydro and nuclear are ever going to be replaced there needs to be a breakthrough in new tech. The alternatives are to expensive to manufacture and maintain.
Non-hydro renewables currently about 14% of US electricity generation, so you're off by a factor of about 3x. But the total amount is not so relevant as the compounding growth rate. (for solar about 20%CAGR)
Wind and solar each have their own exponential growth curves being driven by cost declines. The move from 1% to 5% was agonizingly slow. The move from 5% to 10% took 8 years. The move from 10% to 15% took 4 years. The move from 15% to 50%+ will surprise a lot of people.

Fig34.png
 

Zed

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Non-hydro renewables currently about 14% of US electricity generation, so you're off by a factor of about 3x. But the total amount is not so relevant as the compounding growth rate. (for solar about 20%CAGR)
Wind and solar each have their own exponential growth curves being driven by cost declines. The move from 1% to 5% was agonizingly slow. The move from 5% to 10% took 8 years. The move from 10% to 15% took 4 years. The move from 15% to 50%+ will surprise a lot of people.

View attachment 229728

Yeah, I don't buy it. Politics makes nuclear expensive in the USA. As a technology it offers WAY more than wind or solar in terms of reliability and potential. We need it and we will use it.

+ from what I hear the wind numbers are pretty bogus with the service life and maintenance coming in way higher than they projected.

Things like Thorium need to be further developed.

If it ain't base load then you are jerking around and asking for problems also wind and solar need to have their base load support system factored in if you are even going to start comparing them to nukes. Chalk and cheese...
 
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Lancers32

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No surprise a company that runs nuke plants thinks the future is more nuke plants.
Keeping older nuke plants working provides some of the cheapest baseload power available - good move!
Building new nuclear plants is the most expensive energy you could install. New nuclear power is basically non-competitive with coal, gas, solar or wind - barely even competitive with battery storage.

You'll be hard-pressed to find a pro-nuclear article that gives you any specifics about the most important factor: cost.
Nuclear power has been getting more expensive for decades.
Maybe the SMR's will result in some cost savings, maybe not. And we'll have to wait 10 years to find out.
Nukes will probably get a bid because it has some big proponents in government and a fervent faction of greenies.
But I don't think it really has much of a chance against gas, wind, solar and batteries.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/09/28/renewables-vs-nuclear-256-0/

Found the article surprising since my son used to work there in the Nuke division and said they were firing people left and right barely enough workers to keep the facility compliant. Also told me they were losing their ass on nuke power.
 

Lancers32

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Miners not buying the smack down.
 

Lancers32

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MAG
 

Lancers32

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Jodster

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Yeah, I don't buy it. Politics makes nuclear expensive in the USA. As a technology it offers WAY more than wind or solar in terms of reliability and potential. We need it and we will use it.

+ from what I hear the wind numbers are pretty bogus with the service life and maintenance coming in way higher than they projected.

Things like Thorium need to be further developed.

If it ain't base load then you are jerking around and asking for problems also wind and solar need to have their base load support system factored in if you are even going to start comparing them to nukes. Chalk and cheese...
. . .this above! . . Zed, most people don't realize we would be paying pennies for utilities if it weren't for the absolute criminality of the politicians and their actions. Let me give just two examples:

- In my part of Canada, we have windfarms on the shores of a Great Lake. The units are gigantic; hundreds of feet tall, and built by Samsung for Billions of dollars. Now you would think that's a great thing, but there is a clause in the contract that stipulates that the windmills MUST be decommissioned and disassembled after 20 years. No exceptions. Start over and spend billions more for exactly what you had.

- Same province, and I have information about a nuclear reactor that took tens of billions of dollars and a decade to retrofit. Just as it was about to come back online, the government changed a number of regulations and the nuclear generator will now need another 5 Billion and 5-7 years to meet the new reg's. That's over $30 Billion and 15 years without producing a goddamn watt of energy.

Who created that mess? Politicians!
 

jelly

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The question facing traders - Is there more short term upside on this strong move, or are we going to see the first real correction on this zip off the Sept 29 lows?
I'm thinking we get a little more upside first before we get any real correction, but i've been wrong before.
 

Zed

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Gold Forecast Chart update. I'm going to call that target hit for forecast #1.

1635290263623.png
 

Zed

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Silver Forecast Chart update. Not as close as gold, but still very useful if it can keep this up.

1635290388841.png
 

Zed

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Is there more short term upside on this strong move, or are we going to see the first real correction on this zip off the Sept 29 lows?

Magic 8 Ball says Hell YES!

Me? I dunno....
 

Lancers32

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So I'm watching this a$$hole and the pose looks awfully familiar but could not place it. WTF is up with cartoon character?

 

jelly

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I'm guessing tomorrow is either going to be a 5% up day or a 5% down day. Just a suspicion.
 

Carrion Crow

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So I'm watching this a$$hole and the pose looks awfully familiar but could not place it. WTF is up with cartoon character?


I think with the meds he was on he thought he was holding an invisible podium. Incredible how the MSM glossed over this totally odd pose/situation.
 

Lancers32

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52 or 58?


BTCUSD_2021-10-27_08-25-22.png
 

savvydon

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I'm guessing tomorrow is either going to be a 5% up day or a 5% down day. Just a suspicion.
Bold call. We were mired in red all night and now we seem to be approaching green...
 

Lancers32

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:2 thumbs up:
 

jelly

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Bold call. We were mired in red all night and now we seem to be approaching green...
Just a feeling. This strong move looks to be on the edge of a knife in the short term. Either it continues sharply higher in the next few days, or we are going to get a hard but shortlived initial smackdown as traders who were jumping onto this rally puke up their positions. Gold miners have done this a few times before.
 

dpong

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This would have been a nice gain had I been fortunate enough to purchase it.

[IDT Corporation for gain of 252%, assuming it's still a sell on Friday.]

IDT_2021-10-27_17-30-02.png
 

savvydon

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Zed

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I built a bot to munge the options data so it is a quick job now... so lets see what happens. Frankly I'd only consider the near dates, it gets too thin beyond a couple of months to be of any real value --> JMO.

Gold 27/10/2021
TargetDate
$1900.0023 Nov 2021
$1835.0028 Dec 2021
$1850.0026 Jan 2022
$1995.0023 Feb 2022
$1990.0028 Mar 2022
$1775.0026 Apr 2022
$1845.0025 May 2022
$2400.0026 Jul 2022
$2250.0022 Nov 2022
 

Zed

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Silver 27/10/2021
TargetDate
$30.7523 Nov 2021
$24.7528 Dec 2021
$24.2526 Jan 2022
$28.7523 Feb 2022
$24.5028 Mar 2022
$34.0026 Apr 2022
$22.0027 Jun 2022
$28.0022 Nov 2022
 

Carrion Crow

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Silver 27/10/2021
TargetDate
$30.7523 Nov 2021
$24.7528 Dec 2021
$24.2526 Jan 2022
$28.7523 Feb 2022
$24.5028 Mar 2022
$34.0026 Apr 2022
$22.0027 Jun 2022
$28.0022 Nov 2022

You're probably spot on (no pun intended). What big outside event(s) could alter that? Market crash?
 
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