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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Jodster

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Mmmm.. Think I pulled a muscle half way through but, hey, I gutted it out.

Well, I had some Call options move up nicely the past few days after cashing a Jr for a good profit. Having a good year trading.
Last year was rough.
As an admitted "Newbie" to this whole trading game, I remember a quote I heard in a recent, random podcast...
"Nobody ever went broke taking profits".
I've been simply setting stop limits when my stocks make at least 10% profit. Then I average in when they drop to Fibonacci levels.
I'm not getting rich but me and my meagre Questrade account are gonna be up about 7% this year, which is a hell of better than our financial guy ever did.
Kudos to the crusty ol' fucks here, who have chosen to share their knowledge :p
 

Zed

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It feels like they are very nervous about seeing $25-26 in silver, in fact 24.60 looks like it could be enough on my chart.

1636503214139.png
 

Zed

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If Bob's timing is off, but his thesis is correct, is it best to be sitting in cash? What stocks/sectors would be the most recession-proof this time around?

One of the reason's that I am taking the possibility of the 'melt up' scenario playing is the number of "we are gonna crash" calls out there. The market will tend to step back and make it look easy just before it gets on the front foot and delivers a haymaker.

The guys are correct, calling a crash correctly is a long shot, very hard to make a good call and if you do it is more luck than class and leaves you prone to believing your own BS.

React to price & manage risk for what you lose you will make 10x if you do that consistently.
 

Zed

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I'm not getting rich but me and my meagre Questrade account are gonna be up about 7% this year, which is a hell of better than our financial guy ever did.

If you compound at that sort of annual rate you will do well.
 
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Jodster

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Zed, Honest question here; How can you think a melt-up is a possibility when the manipulation is very real and the markets are still rigged?
If they give us anything, it's either to their benefit, or as a sacrificial token to appease the regulators.
 

Zed

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Zed, Honest question here; How can you think a melt-up is a possibility when the manipulation is very real and the markets are still rigged?
If they give us anything, it's either to their benefit, or as a sacrificial token to appease the regulators.

We've seen it in other markets, down here real estate has gone into full FOMO it ain't never coming down, buy it before you miss it, mode. Given the shot of hot money thrown @ the economy and the market performance since the covid crash I could see the same coming to pass in stocks. All the money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a crash that never comes sees Oct pass and thinks fuck it, lets go now before it gets more expensive.

Gold junior stocks do this all the time, they go parabolic then they die...

I can't say I have the fundamental market detail to make that sort prediction but my experience sees it as a real possibility. A few trillion $ can buy you a heck of a party AND a monster hangover.

When they all get really rabid and that confidence meter is in to 90's, then I will be more concerned out a proper crash.
 

Jodster

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Anybody have thoughts on LAC.TO? It's been a juggernaut. Problem is, I don't know where this chart is headed. I set my buy just before the 50% Fib re-tracement. What say ye?
Screen Shot 2021-11-09 at 8.13.27 PM.png
 

Zed

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Anybody have thoughts on LAC.TO? It's been a juggernaut. Problem is, I don't know where this chart is headed. I set my buy just before the 50% Fib re-tracement. What say ye?
View attachment 231685

My chart looks different, time scale?

Nothing is certain but looks kinda toppy on the weekly, looks like it is due to correct at the least. It's going higher on the weekly but the momentum is slowing. Monthly still looks strong but it will lag the turn. Daily kinda looks like it just topped. Could be a pull back then a run higher but I'd guess some people are stepping aside for a spell here.

Gap up on the weekly will most probably be tested/covered.

My 2c FWIW.
 

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I think back to 2007, we were looking at buying a house. The realtor told me, "real estate prices never go down." Well then came 2008.

The house was under water.

Investment guy tells me the other day, "the market is up almost daily, and on average it is up year after year, it rarely goes down, and if it does you have time to recover."

I'm sitting on the sidelines, and I'm going to wait another 60-90 days before I consider getting back in, also gonna add to the stacks.
 

Zed

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The chance of a blow off top aside... for the moment the SPX looks due to correct. Note the weakening of things like ROC and momentum, it has been a long term divergence. The near months options forecast could be very realistic.

1636516508862.png
 
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Zed

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I think back to 2007, we were looking at buying a house. The realtor told me, "real estate prices never go down." Well then came 2008.

Yes, yet 2006/07 was total FOMO in RE.
 

Zed

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Today's gold forecast numbers. Not much movement, I drew in some channel lines and as you can see it looks quite plausible.

1636522929575.png
 

Zed

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Take 2... I redrew the upper trend line.

Current trend channel in AUD Gold would suggest that if gold where to hit an interim high on the 23 Nov then 2530 would be the upper trend line target. For that to coincide with 1900 USD gold on the same date the AUD would have to be worth 0.751 USD. Currently trading @ 0.736. Again, not unreasonable targets.

Hmmm, who knows?!

1636524579506.png
 

Lancers32

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Breaking news. Sky News Australia always on top of things.


 

Lancers32

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The Idiot in Charge seems to be the best thing that could ever happen to Russia and China yet Trump was the supposed enemy of the West.

 

Lancers32

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They made sure you had no recourse against Big Pharma early on. Now you can be sure the pro vaxx community will still believe the jabs work.


 

savvydon

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They made sure you had no recourse against Big Pharma early on. Now you can be sure the pro vaxx community will still believe the jabs work.


The vaccines have been politicized and now are hauling all of this garbage along with them. It is a vaccine, not a miracle.

Doesn't stop you from getting infected.
Doesn't stop you from being a vector for the disease.
Doesn't explain the now stupid rationale for wearing masks.
Doesn't automatically sign you up for one political party or another.

Simply, it helps reduce morbidity and mortality.

It should have been, and always be, optional. A choice. A tool.

Although I will say, childhood vaccine records are mandatory for most schools that I know of.

whatever
 

savvydon

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Today's gold forecast numbers. Not much movement, I drew in some channel lines and as you can see it looks quite plausible.

View attachment 231702
We got a little spike this morning from CPI data that show that inflation is off the chain. Lets see how hard the prices get capped now...
 
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Lancers32

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My biggest problem other than the fact they want this to be mandatory is not enough testing was done.
 

savvydon

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My biggest problem other than the fact they want this to be mandatory is not enough testing was done.
I agree the mandatory thing is pure BS.

I think the thought was that we were looking down the barrel at a game changing pandemic. That, and recent advances in gene mapping have allowed for more rapid advances in vaccine technology. Just my 2c
 

Lancers32

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One of these days Alice. Ollie on Gold.


 

Lancers32

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:2 thumbs up: Einstein on Curb.


 

Jodster

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Pshaw to you and your false hope. Anybody drinking the blood of all those Uranium pumpers? Starting to buy URNM, LAC.TO and REMX...
EDIT: I'm feeling pretty good that I was over 50% cash. Always good to keep some dry powder laying around.
 

Lancers32

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IF you are OK with another bad day yeah. Buy the dips until it stops working.
 

Lancers32

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So lemme get this straight. Brady from Sprott clearly stated for months Gold and the pm complex had yet to bottom actually sees $1500 Gold as a possibility. So on the early pop today he does a victory lap. Heads I win tails you lose.
 

BeefJerky

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So lemme get this straight. Brady from Sprott clearly stated for months Gold and the pm complex had yet to bottom actually sees $1500 Gold as a possibility. So on the early pop today he does a victory lap. Heads I win tails you lose.
Sounds like a lot of price predictors.
 
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Jarrod32

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Market today was pretty flat...maybe down a bit...until...the 30y treasury auction. That was not good. Spike in yields, bid to cover was lower, and the makeup of the buyers seems to indicate weakening demand. That is when stocks really started their dump.
 

jelly

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I feel bad for the great panther shareholders. Glad I ditched that one a long time ago.
 

Lancers32

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Longer this kind of stuff goes on the more I realize it is not a good idea to pay too much attention to the day to day movement in the mining shares. Ugly closes considering though. MTA for instance ran to $8.00 and closed at $7.59.
 

Goldhedge

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In case you forgot the monster under the bed...

Screen Shot 2021-11-10 at 3.33.25 PM.png
 

Goldhedge

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What's a little inflation among friends...

Screen Shot 2021-11-10 at 4.32.00 PM.png
 

Zed

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A quick look @ the S&P 500 with our first target labeled and a volume profile starting from the covid dump and ending at the recent high. It would suggest that the bears will get on the front foot below the ~4460 level. Target 4100 or ~-12% from here, I thnk Oliver said you don't want to see a sub 4400 outcome if you are a bull?

1636588511391.png


S&P 500 momentum has been waning slowly for a year now... Is that last pop a blow off or a trend change... watching!

1636588776457.png
 

savvydon

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Silver... yeah well, if we make this it is gonna be a wild pop.

View attachment 231806
Silver initially caught fire today before the big dollar rally threw some water on the party. If everything lines up right it seems as if the market will be happy to have some 3-5% silver up days. Your target is a bit of a hail Mary, but the game isn't over yet.
 
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Zed

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Your target is a bit of a hail Mary, but the game isn't over yet.

Yeah... but the bulk of the options are still balanced up there, it has come down a little but not much really.
 

Zed

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