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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Oil was a big miss!

1637186826156.png


Even cropping the quotes back by 25%, losing the hail Mary's, only brings the target down to $70. Interestingly oil still took a dive on the last day, now I have a quote for the day I will see if I can explain it using Option OI, so far I doubt that it is possible. It's possible that IF this works it is an indication of a market that is 'managed'. I guess gold and silver will give us the next clue. Silver still looking like a long shot.

Crude Oil for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 25%
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$70.001Tue 16 Nov 2021321
$82.0022Wed 15 Dec 2021264
$79.0044Fri 14 Jan 2022241
$73.0067Wed 16 Feb 2022265
$77.0088Thu 17 Mar 2022208
$74.50108Thu 14 Apr 2022192
$65.00131Tue 17 May 2022221
$75.00153Thu 16 Jun 202275
$65.00174Fri 15 Jul 202253
$69.50197Wed 17 Aug 202261
$72.00218Thu 15 Sep 202215
$72.00240Mon 17 Oct 20226
$60.50262Wed 16 Nov 2022121
$100.00283Thu 15 Dec 202210
$91.00306Tue 17 Jan 20235
$65.00327Wed 15 Feb 202310
$80.00348Thu 16 Mar 20232
$60.00392Wed 17 May 202326
$60.00522Wed 15 Nov 202366
$73.00653Thu 16 May 202413
$75.00784Fri 15 Nov 202426
$100.00913Thu 15 May 20257
$79.001045Mon 17 Nov 202522
 

Zed

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Silver...

1637187486372.png


Targets...

Silver for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 0%
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$29.756Tue 23 Nov 2021445
$26.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021278
$24.9052Wed 26 Jan 2022185
$30.7572Wed 23 Feb 2022164
$26.0095Mon 28 Mar 202257
$30.00116Tue 26 Apr 202238
$22.00160Mon 27 Jun 202267
$32.00203Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00266Tue 22 Nov 202246
$31.25421Tue 27 Jun 20235

Cutting a mere 5% of the Hail Mary's off produces this...

Silver for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 5%
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$25.256Tue 23 Nov 2021423
$25.9531Tue 28 Dec 2021264
$24.5052Wed 26 Jan 2022176
$30.7572Wed 23 Feb 2022156
$26.0095Mon 28 Mar 202254
$30.00116Tue 26 Apr 202236
$22.25160Mon 27 Jun 202264
$32.00203Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00266Tue 22 Nov 202244
$31.25421Tue 27 Jun 20235

Maybe a more realistic forecast!
 

savvydon

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Silver...

View attachment 232896

Targets...

TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
Silver for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 0%
$29.756Tue 23 Nov 2021445
$26.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021278
$24.9052Wed 26 Jan 2022185
$30.7572Wed 23 Feb 2022164
$26.0095Mon 28 Mar 202257
$30.00116Tue 26 Apr 202238
$22.00160Mon 27 Jun 202267
$32.00203Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00266Tue 22 Nov 202246
$31.25421Tue 27 Jun 20235

Cutting a mere 5% of the Hail Mary's off produces this...

TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
Silver for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 5%
$25.256Tue 23 Nov 2021423
$25.9531Tue 28 Dec 2021264
$24.5052Wed 26 Jan 2022176
$30.7572Wed 23 Feb 2022156
$26.0095Mon 28 Mar 202254
$30.00116Tue 26 Apr 202236
$22.25160Mon 27 Jun 202264
$32.00203Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00266Tue 22 Nov 202244
$31.25421Tue 27 Jun 20235

Maybe a more realistic forecast!
How are you doing the cropping?
 

Zed

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Gold. Looking better... second table has a 10% Hail Mary haircut.


1637187949022.png


Gold for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 0%
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$1900.006Tue 23 Nov 2021432
$1895.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021307
$1850.0052Wed 26 Jan 2022288
$1970.0072Wed 23 Feb 2022242
$1900.0095Mon 28 Mar 2022217
$1845.00116Tue 26 Apr 2022112
$1845.00137Wed 25 May 2022144
$1750.00160Mon 27 Jun 20228
$1600.00181Tue 26 Jul 202239
$1750.00203Thu 25 Aug 202210
$2050.00226Tue 27 Sep 202212
$1750.00247Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2200.00266Tue 22 Nov 202274
$1750.00291Tue 27 Dec 20225
$1485.00398Thu 25 May 20232

Gold for Monday 15 Nov 2021 < 10%
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$1875.006Tue 23 Nov 2021389
$1895.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021277
$1850.0052Wed 26 Jan 2022259
$1975.0072Wed 23 Feb 2022218
$1890.0095Mon 28 Mar 2022195
$1845.00116Tue 26 Apr 2022100
$1825.00137Wed 25 May 2022129
$1750.00160Mon 27 Jun 20228
$2050.00181Tue 26 Jul 202235
$1750.00203Thu 25 Aug 202210
$1800.00226Tue 27 Sep 202211
$1750.00247Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2025.00266Tue 22 Nov 202267
$1750.00291Tue 27 Dec 20225
$1485.00398Thu 25 May 20232
 

Zed

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How are you doing the cropping?

Quite simply for now, losing the bottom x% of strikes on the puts and top x% of strikes on the calls. They don't include a quote for the day in the spread sheet so I am trying not to have to update all of them with a closing price for the day of the download. That approach is a bit of a movable feast... might not be so good for any longer range attempts @ forecasting. That's next, I will see if cropping to within +-x% of the current price is a better forecast. I'm not sure, I might base it on the BarChart 'near the money' quotes.

I dunno... any ideas?!
 

savvydon

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Just thinking that some of the outliers maybe be 'throw aways' designed to hedge against a huge and unexpected move/event. I think it is good to look at the data and see if specific hair cuts over specific time frames give a best fit. This can be tested over several cycles to see how consistent the results are. I need to give it some thought, but I'm thinking that engineering the technique from a backwards standpoint, ie theorizing what is really going on based on how the data fits, may provide some illumination.

That's how we are used to working in the ER.
 
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Zed

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Just thinking that some of the outliers maybe be 'throw aways' designed to hedge against a huge and unexpected move/event. I think it is good to look at the data and see if specific hair cuts over specific time frames give a best fit. This can be tested over several cycles to see how consistent the results are. I need to give it some thought, but I'm thinking that engineering the technique from a backwards standpoint, ie theorizing what is really going on based on how the data fits, may provide some illumination.

That's how we are used to working in the ER.

Yes.

Using a different cropping method, which loses the deep in the money options (long term contracts) and the Hail Mary's, you only have to crop 3% of the data in Silver to get a significantly different number.

Not so much for oil... but I suspect that oil is still affected by some silly option numbers written around the going negative episode.

Gold two ways...

TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
American Options on Gold for Wednesday 17 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 0
$1900.006Tue 23 Nov 2021433
$1895.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021308
$1850.0050Wed 26 Jan 2022288
$1960.0070Wed 23 Feb 2022244
$1900.0095Mon 28 Mar 2022224
$1845.00116Tue 26 Apr 2022113
$1845.00135Wed 25 May 2022153
$1750.00160Mon 27 Jun 20228
$1400.00181Tue 26 Jul 202240
$1900.00201Thu 25 Aug 202214
$2050.00226Tue 27 Sep 202213
$1750.00245Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2150.00266Tue 22 Nov 202278
$1750.00291Tue 27 Dec 20225
$1750.00396Thu 25 May 20234
$1750.00530Mon 27 Nov 20239

TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
American Options on Gold for Wednesday 17 Nov 2021 < 5% Method = 2
$1875.006Tue 23 Nov 2021389
$1895.0031Tue 28 Dec 2021278
$1850.0050Wed 26 Jan 2022260
$1995.0070Wed 23 Feb 2022220
$1890.0095Mon 28 Mar 2022202
$1845.00116Tue 26 Apr 2022101
$1825.00135Wed 25 May 2022137
$1750.00160Mon 27 Jun 20228
$2080.00181Tue 26 Jul 202236
$1650.00201Thu 25 Aug 202212
$1750.00226Tue 27 Sep 202211
$1750.00245Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2025.00266Tue 22 Nov 202270
$1750.00291Tue 27 Dec 20225
$1750.00396Thu 25 May 20234
$1750.00530Mon 27 Nov 20239

Ignore the 'Trading Days' number when below 7 it isn't correct. A bug on the fix list!
 
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Lancers32

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Dollar up metals yawn. Gold 10% off the lows Silver 15%.
SILV_2021-11-19_11-01-49.png
 

Lancers32

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Kamala Harris serving as President while Bidet gets a colonoscopy today. We've been getting it up the a$$ this year now it is his turn.
 

Lancers32

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Speculative. If they can drive Bitcoin down to 52-53K this stock might be a good play from the low to mid 40's. 42 is 1/2 the highest selling price and support.
MARA_2021-11-19_12-18-19.png
 

Lancers32

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MTA

MTA_2021-11-19_12-33-34.png
 

Goldhedge

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how-much-gold-is-in-the-world-768x2101.jpeg
 

Lancers32

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Out of work? Depressed? Get a grip.

FEr0HkqXMAQjH8v.jpg
 

Zed

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American Options on Silver for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 2
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$29.753Tue 23 Nov 2021455
$26.0026Tue 28 Dec 2021284
$25.0045Wed 26 Jan 2022195
$33.2564Wed 23 Feb 2022167
$26.0087Mon 28 Mar 202257
$29.00107Tue 26 Apr 202242
$22.75149Mon 27 Jun 202268
$32.00191Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00251Tue 22 Nov 202247
$31.25404Tue 27 Jun 20235
$22.00513Mon 27 Nov 20234

1637547476854.png


American Options on Gold for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 2
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$1895.003Tue 23 Nov 2021436
$1875.0026Tue 28 Dec 2021310
$1845.0045Wed 26 Jan 2022288
$1970.0064Wed 23 Feb 2022245
$1900.0087Mon 28 Mar 2022227
$1850.00107Tue 26 Apr 2022116
$1845.00128Wed 25 May 2022156
$1750.00149Mon 27 Jun 20229
$1400.00169Tue 26 Jul 202240
$1900.00191Thu 25 Aug 202216
$2025.00213Tue 27 Sep 202213
$1750.00233Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2150.00251Tue 22 Nov 202281
$1750.00275Tue 27 Dec 20225
$1750.00381Thu 25 May 20234
$1750.00513Mon 27 Nov 20239

1637547367671.png


American Options on Copper for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 2
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$4.733Tue 23 Nov 2021222
$4.8526Tue 28 Dec 2021152
$4.9545Wed 26 Jan 202280
$5.0064Wed 23 Feb 202234
$3.5087Mon 28 Mar 20229
$4.30107Tue 26 Apr 20223
$3.50128Wed 25 May 20222
$3.35149Mon 27 Jun 20224
$5.50251Tue 22 Nov 20226

1637547772675.png


American Options on S&P Mini for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 0
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
414520Fri 17 Dec 2021569
404081Fri 18 Mar 2022382
4200144Fri 17 Jun 2022125
4500206Fri 16 Sep 2022114
3900269Fri 16 Dec 202272
4500332Fri 17 Mar 202358
4000397Fri 16 Jun 202353
4400462Fri 15 Sep 202354
3700527Fri 15 Dec 202357
2100792Fri 20 Dec 202411
51001052Fri 19 Dec 202525

1637547872800.png
 
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Zed

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1637543531552.png


European Options on Bitcoin for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 0
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$58000.006Mon 29 Nov 2021108
$66000.0029Mon 3 Jan 202263
$59000.0048Mon 31 Jan 202215
$20000.0067Mon 28 Feb 20224
 
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Zed

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American Options on Ten Year Note for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 0% Method = 0
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
131'0005Fri 26 Nov 2021196
129'50024Thu 23 Dec 202184
129'50042Fri 21 Jan 202270
129'50062Fri 18 Feb 2022107
1637548002543.png
 

gnome

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jelly

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Today's action makes you wonder if the strong move higher in gold over the past few weeks was actually a breakout or just speculation that a new Fed chair will be instated
 

Lancers32

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Yeah right. Most of the pundits were looking for one more move down before a stronger rally. Who knows?
 

jelly

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For "just" a news related sell-off in the metals, theres a lot of damage to the precious metals charts today.

Seeing alot of reversal candlesticks in the miners, but I'm waiting to see how we close. I'd really like gold/silver to stage atleast a small rally off the lows going into close if there's going to be any hope that we rally from here. Otherwise, we could get more downside tomorrow.
 

Lancers32

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The miners were already starting to correct last week.
 

Zed

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The silver forecast with the 'Hail Mary' haircut is looking closer to the money...

American Options on Silver for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 5% Method = 2
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$25.003Tue 23 Nov 2021409
$25.5026Tue 28 Dec 2021256
$24.5045Wed 26 Jan 2022175
$33.0064Wed 23 Feb 2022151
$26.5087Mon 28 Mar 202251
$29.00107Tue 26 Apr 202238
$23.00149Mon 27 Jun 202262
$32.00191Thu 25 Aug 20225
$28.00251Tue 22 Nov 202243
$31.25404Tue 27 Jun 20235
$22.00513Mon 27 Nov 20234

Charted together...

1637619174126.png
 

Zed

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Gold with a slightly larger "Hail Mary" haircut...

American Options on Gold for Friday 19 Nov 2021 < 10% Method = 2
TargetTrading DaysExpirySample
$1850.003Tue 23 Nov 2021348
$1895.0026Tue 28 Dec 2021248
$1850.0045Wed 26 Jan 2022230
$1975.0064Wed 23 Feb 2022195
$1890.0087Mon 28 Mar 2022181
$1845.00107Tue 26 Apr 202292
$1825.00128Wed 25 May 2022124
$1750.00149Mon 27 Jun 20227
$2080.00169Tue 26 Jul 202232
$1900.00191Thu 25 Aug 202212
$1750.00213Tue 27 Sep 202211
$1750.00233Wed 26 Oct 20224
$2000.00251Tue 22 Nov 202265
$1860.00275Tue 27 Dec 20223
$1750.00381Thu 25 May 20234
$1750.00513Mon 27 Nov 20237

By the way a 10% haircut doesn't change silver much over the 5% number.

Charted together...

1637619657307.png
 

Zed

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That posted, gold kinda looks like a long tail down day will be posted tomorrow...

2c
FWIW.
 

Zed

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GDX...

GDX ticked up against gold today... more +ve than -ve.
GDXJ is strengthing against GDX... more +ve than -ve.
Momentum is negative for now.

Looking more like BTFD than bailout... for now.

1637622478236.png