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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Goldhedge

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Lancers32

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Missed this woke moment. Cleveland Indians are now the Cleveland Guardians? WTF.
 

Lancers32

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When you don't get a cookie. Called for $200 Silver now jumping up and down. cry:

 

dpong

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Michael Oliver may be short term uncertain...

 

dpong

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Lancers32

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Confusing market. Big down days not much in the way of upside. I know we haven't taken out any supports in Gold or Silver yet but not much hope for explosive moves at least short to mid term. When a market doesn't do what it should run the other way I guess. 16 months off the highs now most bullish analysts were thinking no more than half a year. No positions.
 

Lancers32

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Oliver begins around 3:42. How many times is he going to go through if the bears don't do this by this time? No system works all the time his read on the market has been meh at best for some time now. Wake me up when Silver closes over $30.
 

Lancers32

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Another POS dispatched.


 

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I think January is going to be very good for the metals/miners. but until then forget about it! Today the miners are showing signs that they will continue lower.
 

Lancers32

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Why do you think January will be good Jelly?
 

BeefJerky

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I have the same weight as last month. Don't really care because I am not interested in ever trading for clown world dollars. But damn,,, it would sure be nice to be vindicated after a couple decades. But then, that would require others FOMO'ing. They are all too busy with magic land money in the metaverse. Fuck it. Got my seat and will see what happens on the other side of this coming collapse.
 

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I think January is going to be very good for the metals/miners. but until then forget about it! Today the miners are showing signs that they will continue lower.
Does anybody else play different markets based on timing ?
Instead of a static pie-chart with allocations for precious metals, utility metals like Lithium and Magnesium, uranium and some others, I have decided to weigh heavy in different sectors at different times.
For example, if one had sold their gold and silver holdings last September, and moved it heavy into uranium, there would have been a 40% run-up into Mid-November. Then a transfer back into silver, which was/is bottoming would have yielded additional gains.
Does anybody have a theory as to how this will play out next?
My wild ass guess is that metals and uranium will tank throughout the rest of this year. Certain shortages may yield some gains in lithium, magnesium, copper and nickel stocks.
Next to pop will be Uranium. It’s a hot sector and the common investor has yet to learn about it.
Finally I see the manipulated precious metals and their miners thrown down below capitulation levels. It will be a wholesale butchering of the sector. This allows the whales to enter, shorts to unwind and funds to enter positions for pennies on the dollar.
eventually the shackles will be lifted in 2022 and metals will run.
If one is savvy in shifting between the sectors, there are great gains to be had.
This is what I’m learning now, but then again I’m usually wrong ...
 

Uglytruth

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I don't see much changing before Christmas so they can make their money & put people deeper into debt.

NOTE; Still not hearing much about Christmas this year........ hot toys, sales numbers (otehr than black Friday & Cyber Monday were down., etc....
 

jelly

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Does anybody else play different markets based on timing ?
Instead of a static pie-chart with allocations for precious metals, utility metals like Lithium and Magnesium, uranium and some others, I have decided to weigh heavy in different sectors at different times.
For example, if one had sold their gold and silver holdings last September, and moved it heavy into uranium, there would have been a 40% run-up into Mid-November. Then a transfer back into silver, which was/is bottoming would have yielded additional gains.
Does anybody have a theory as to how this will play out next?
My wild ass guess is that metals and uranium will tank throughout the rest of this year. Certain shortages may yield some gains in lithium, magnesium, copper and nickel stocks.
Next to pop will be Uranium. It’s a hot sector and the common investor has yet to learn about it.
Finally I see the manipulated precious metals and their miners thrown down below capitulation levels. It will be a wholesale butchering of the sector. This allows the whales to enter, shorts to unwind and funds to enter positions for pennies on the dollar.
eventually the shackles will be lifted in 2022 and metals will run.
If one is savvy in shifting between the sectors, there are great gains to be had.
This is what I’m learning now, but then again I’m usually wrong ...
Hard to predict which markets will pop at what timing. I still haven't figured it out.
From what I'm seeing, many of the commodities appear to have run their course and are done. One of the latest being oil. I own some uranium plays as long-term holds, but I'm uncertain about the next 6 months for uranium. Uranium may be done for a while, comparable to gold in Aug 2020. Long term it's a great place to be, but there's been way to much talk and speculation in the Uranium space lately. Usually that's a sign of a top - when everyone else is already in and talking about how bright the future looks.

I think for timing, and I know this is a gold forum, but by all appearances, the next hot sector appears to be the precious metals. With tapering coming, as well as rate hikes, this has been good for gold in the past. Gold has been consolidating in a bullish fashion since it's Aug 2020 top, and should be breaking out at some point. However, both gold and silver love to disappoint and frequently have "bear traps" at the very end of their consolidation, flushing out the last of the bagholders. These cause many investors to throw in the towel and give up right before they turn around and charge higher. Often invalidating nice technical patterns. Now, even if the PM's are the next hot sector, that doesn't mean they won't go lower first, over the next few weeks. But 12 months from now, I think the PM shareholders will be smiling.

In the end, this is december. It's tax loss selling season, and miners have been losers this year. So guess what is getting sold off for a loss? Miners. Just going from memory, mid-Dec is usually when the bulk of the selling finishes. I think we should start to see a turn around before the end of December if we are going to see a January rally in the PM's.

And then there's the other elephant in the room...What's next for the general stock markets? Another year of gains? A bear market like many predict? All I know is calling tops in the general stock market has been a losing strategy.
 
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gnome

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A good bit of my trading account is dedicate to the wheel strategy. Sell put options on red days in given security. If I get assigned, switch to selling covered calls at my cost basis. For example, I sold SILJ puts on the move below $15 last spring, got assigned at $14 and sold calls all summer. When it finally moved above $14 a few weeks ago, I got assigned and rotated into other stuff. I play bitcoin miners, LIT etf, growth stocks (EV's), occasionally a value stock and miners. The way the wheel works, it kinda causes you to rotate naturally - not great in a raging bull market because you cap your upside but works pretty well in a sideways market or even slightly down market. LIT is my biggest position right now. I'm flat the metals (tho I might be underwater on a few boating-related trades), but almost entered today. If SILJ dives on whatever BS comes with inflation and upcoming Fed meeting, I'll rotate in.

I expect oil to rally when omicron turns out to be a very contagious cold, but rig counts are back up to 2017 numbers and demand just isn't there. Short term rally, but I don't see a long term play in oil. Wish I had gone short at $85 as I thought it was the top, but chickened out.
 

gnome

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Hard to predict which markets will pop at what timing. I still haven't figured it out.
C'mon man, we're counting on you to figure it out!
 

gnome

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Does anybody else play different markets based on timing ?
Instead of a static pie-chart with allocations for precious metals, utility metals like Lithium and Magnesium, uranium and some others, I have decided to weigh heavy in different sectors at different times.
The EV industry is growing at 25% CAGR. Battery storage is growing maybe 35%. Tesla is growing faster than 50% CAGR.
Lithium bull market has a long ways to run.
 

Lancers32

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Thanks for the well thought out reply Jelly. Not so sure about Uranium shares having topped out quite yet. I would agree the sector got over heated but since the recent damage with the market off 30% or more I think most that recently bought have been shaken out. That said I would still use stops.
Thanks for all the comments guys much appreciate hearing what you guys are thinking.
 

Lancers32

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Since you would have to think these people know their images are captured it must mean they are just laughing their asses off.

 

Lancers32

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I have the same weight as last month. Don't really care because I am not interested in ever trading for clown world dollars. But damn,,, it would sure be nice to be vindicated after a couple decades. But then, that would require others FOMO'ing. They are all too busy with magic land money in the metaverse. Fuck it. Got my seat and will see what happens on the other side of this coming collapse.

Beef we all know this show cannot go on forever but I have been hearing the same thing now for over 40 years. What is the life span of the average human? Silver has been one of the worst investments on the planet. Every $ you sunk into it has opportunity cost. I am sure you own a bunch that you bought for much less than 10 bucks but c'mon man. Silver for $50 in 1980 now less than half of that and the $ is worth less too.
 

Lancers32

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Too much ass for me but I would work with it. Talk about a bottom.

DlOJXWeU4AAi6LE.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Aside from the perma bulls it is getting hard to find anyone willing to buy these levels. CDE and HL sitting around 5 bucks a share.
 

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Aside from the perma bulls it is getting hard to find anyone willing to buy these levels. CDE and HL sitting around 5 bucks a share.
How far can you slide, when you're already at the bottom of the mountain? Apparently further still..
 

dozer99

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My stock portfolio is starting to look like a blueprint for a subterranean basement.
 

Jodster

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Guys I just threw some (what I think are) interesting drawings in the Uranium thread.
I don't know much about double bottoms, but my spidey senses tell me tomorrow is going to look a lot different than today.
 

Lancers32

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I would wait till the end of the day. Could very well be higher bottoms but too soon to tell. Better than buying the tops.
 

dpong

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At over 2 hours long, ZED might like this one:

 

Lancers32

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Once upon a time it helped if you were black to get framed.

 

Lancers32

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Guys I just threw some (what I think are) interesting drawings in the Uranium thread.
I don't know much about double bottoms, but my spidey senses tell me tomorrow is going to look a lot different than today.


I bought some UUUU and UEC DNN did not fill at $1.33 missed by dos centavos. Can the U shares go lower? Probably. Playing it like an 18 yo virgin. A little bit at a time.