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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Au-myn

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An updated chart. Sell signal at 95.80.

usd.jpg
 

dpong

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Happy New Years gentlemen.

still 0% invested in the miners.
 

Uglytruth

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Looks like a trap to me.



Nancy Pelosi Buys Millions In Call Options In Google, Micron, Roblox, Salesforce And Disney​

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, DEC 31, 2021 - 05:14 AM
Despite a populist grassroots movement seeking to ban Congress members from trading stocks, one which has attracted bipartisan political support, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - arguably one of the most prolific Congressional traders - said two weeks ago that lawmakers should be allowed to make trades while serving.
“We’re a free market economy,” Pelosi told reporters during a news conference. “They should be able to participate in that.”
Pelosi’s statement came days after progressive New Yorker, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, reiterated her support for banning lawmakers from the practice. Ocasio-Cortez and other members of Congress argue that lawmakers have access to information the public is not privy to and the ability to write and pass policy, they should abstain from buying and selling individual stock and other assets. She and other lawmakers support members of Congress investing in index funds.
“I choose not to hold any so I can remain impartial about policy making,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Instagram.
Pelosi's statement also came in the wake of a series of scandals involving federal lawmakers, Fed and government officials making suspect trades throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
Currently, Senator Richard Burr (R-N.C.), is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission for trades he made in the early days of the pandemic (Burr has said all of his trades were based on news reports, not non-public information), and other lawmakers were investigated by the Department of Justice for their trades.
It’s not limited to Congress: In October the Fed announced it would ban officials from owning individual stocks and bonds after two officials - Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan and Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren - resigned following allegations of insider trading.
Members of Congress are theoretically barred from trading on nonpublic information thanks to the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge, or STOCK, Act, and during the press conference, Pelosi noted that lawmakers need to follow that law. “If people aren’t reporting [stock trades], they should be,” she said.
We mention all of this because according to the latest Periodic Transaction Report covering Nancy Pelosi's latest trades, the California Democrat purchased millions worth of call options in companies from Alphabet, to Micron, to Roblox, Saleforce and Walt Disney. Unfortunately, the strike price of the options was not disclosed, although with maturities well into 2022 and in some cases 2023, this appears to be a long-term levered bet.
Source
And while the presumption is that there Pelosi did not trade on inside information, something tells us each of those trades will be profitable.
 

Uglytruth

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1641174656846.png
 

Goldhedge

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This is a good thing right... right?

Screen Shot 2022-01-02 at 7.34.24 PM.png
 

chieftain

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Dominoes made of chinesium...
 

Lancers32

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Gary right on cue. So either the metals or the miners are lying today. Metals down more than a bit Uranium sharply higher. So far and its only one day Savage is 0 for 2.
 

Lancers32

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Au-myn

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This P & F chart is a 3 x 40 scale giving us a long term view of the shiny yellow metal. I decided to try something different so, I
highlighted the trend channels. A long term ascending trend channel with a short term declining trend channel within the long term trend.

The red star at 1920 indicates a buy signal on a #2 Double Top (market bottom) formation.

blu2.png
 

Goldhedge

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chieftain

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Might need to have you knock on his door and drag his ass back into the fringe, mate.;)

I don't even know which part of this asylum he called home haha.
 

Goldhedge

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Lancers32

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Why is this silly twat even in the conversation? Sit the fock down and STFU.


 

ErrosionOfAccord

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I bailed on SDRC. It's crashing today. Got out at 250% increase on my account. Should'a taken it at four bags. live 'n' learn.
 

jelly

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I sense a boner candle coming soon...
Just a gut feeling.
Been wrong before.
 

Lancers32

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I sense a boner candle coming soon...
Just a gut feeling.
Been wrong before.
Lay down it will pass. Looks like SILJ want s a gap close soon. As far as being wrong you got a lot of company Jelly.
 

dpong

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Starting this Friday (for 2022) my Weekend Trend Trader system will change from using the SPX and its 10 week moving average to using the IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF and its 10 week moving average as our regime filter. Moving forward, when IWM is above its 10 week moving average we will be in condition green and be able to take on new positions. When IWM closes below its 10 week moving average we will be in condition red and not take any new positions.

I have back tested over long periods of time, and using the IWM regime filter gives significantly better returns.

Below are 2 charts of IWM - iShares Russell 2000 ETF. The first chart shows the red/green ribbon using the SPX regime filter. The second chart shows the red/green ribbon using the IWM regime filter. Notice that there is a lot more red on the second chart, meaning it was not a good time to buy small caps during those red periods.

We shall be more successful going forward with this improvement.

IWM_2022-01-06_10-01-45.png


IWM_2022-01-06_10-01-53.png
 

dpong

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I back-tested several time periods using SPX, VB (Vanguard small caps), and IWM as regime filter. IWM is the clear winner. This is not guessing or hunching.

SPXvsVB_2010_2021.jpg
 

dpong

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[The reason the IWM regime filter is a better fit for my WTT system is because I only buy symbols on the Russell 3000 where the price of the stock is from $1 to $20. These are small caps, indeed.]
 

Lancers32

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SILJ double bottom around $11.40 but we need to close over or we probably see much lower across the board.
 

Jodster

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Sometimes being an idiot pays. Yesterday I wanted to set a stop loss for URC.WT.VN at $3.38. Instead I set a simple limit order.
Since the price was @$3.50 at the time, the order was filled immediately and my entire position liquidated below bid. I felt like an ass.
Fast forward to today and URC.WT.VN dropped 16%. That little brain-fart saved me some coin.
Lesson? It only takes a moment of inattentiveness to ruin a good day. The trading Gods took pity on me and bailed me out :p

Screen Shot 2022-01-06 at 10.47.25 AM.png
 

dpong

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With new regime filter, $100,000 invested in 2010 becomes 1.6 million as of today.

[If only.]

Window_and_Windows_10-9.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Rick Rule on Gold Silver and Uranium.

 

Lancers32

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Down South they might say fixin'.