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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Round trip Uranium stocks every day now.
 

solarion

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Soon 5 1/8 points may seem "cheap". Yearly 30y annual average mortgage rates in 1981 were 16.63%.
 

Lancers32

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Soon 5 1/8 points may seem "cheap". Yearly 30y annual average mortgage rates in 1981 were 16.63%.

1st house in 1984 30 year mortgage the rate was 12% and the builder bought it down the rate was closer to 14%. Higher rates should be good for home buyers huh? No one knows where prices go but I don't think it's a good idea to be buying any market when the asset goes for well over ask but WTF do I know?
 

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I just checked the Fed calendar but it's a pretty dry read. Anybody know when the next Jerome Powell speech is?
 

solarion

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Dunno about any more scheduled speeches for that particular swamp creature in April, but some of the other federal reserve criminals are opening their lying mouths all week. Philly fed president Harker was babbling today, St Louis fed crime boss Bullard as well as Evans and Bostic will be opening their dishonest yaps tomorrow.

Yesterday the markets fell off a cliff because a fed governor criminal named Lael Brainard, who's usually very dovish, casually mentioned that "inflation is much too high and might go higher". Well duh...career criminal lying bitch.


Naturally PMs were immediately taken to the woodshed on the "news" that inflation is not only NOT transitory, is NOT moderating, but is instead heading MUCH higher. Apparently some really dumb people still believe there's more than lip service the fed can or even wishes to do about inflation...despite the fact that the fed is the creator of the inflation and has done nothing save increase inflation since the collapse of the repo market in the fall of 2019.

If the federal reserve crooks had any actual plans to reduce their balance sheet...they'd have been doing so long ago instead of endlessly babbling about quantitative tightening while continuously increasing their balance sheet the whole time. What they're doing is misleading people to ensure that they can use their stealth inflation tax scam to steal as much as possible from them later.

1649262354461.png


Edit: ZOMG the FOMC minutes revealed the fed wants to taper their balance sheet by $95b per month! I have to go sell my gold as quickly as possible and buy stocks, bonds, and real estate! ...which will surely soar in an aggressively rising interest rate environment!

I challenge anyone to make this shit up.
 
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Jodster

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Dunno about any more scheduled speeches for that particular swamp creature in April, but some of the other federal reserve criminals are opening their lying mouths all week. Philly fed president Harker was babbling today, St Louis fed crime boss Bullard as well as Evans and Bostic will be opening their dishonest yaps tomorrow.

Yesterday the markets fell off a cliff because a fed governor criminal named Lael Brainard, who's usually very dovish, casually mentioned that "inflation is much too high and might go higher". Well duh...career criminal lying bitch.


Naturally PMs were immediately taken to the woodshed on the "news" that inflation is not only NOT transitory, is NOT moderating, but is instead heading MUCH higher. Apparently some really dumb people still believe there's more than lip service the fed can or even wishes to do about inflation...despite the fact that the fed is the creator of the inflation and has done nothing save increase inflation since the collapse of the repo market in the fall of 2019.

If the federal reserve crooks had any actual plans to reduce their balance sheet...they'd have been doing so long ago instead of endlessly babbling about quantitative tightening while continuously increasing their balance sheet the whole time. What they're doing is misleading people to ensure that they can use their stealth inflation tax scam to steal as much as possible from them later.

View attachment 253633

Edit: ZOMG the FOMC minutes revealed the fed wants to taper their balance sheet by $95b per month! I have to go sell my gold as quickly as possible and buy stocks, bonds, and real estate! ...which will surely soar in an aggressively rising interest rate environment!

I challenge anyone to make this shit up.
I get your sarcasm, but that narrative is exactly what they want to propagate. And the stock babies are starving for that pablum.
Might as well grease your ass tonight; all gold bugs are getting fucked early tomorrow.
 

solarion

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Might as well grease your ass tonight; all gold bugs are getting fucked early tomorrow.
Perhaps, yet it's a whole lot better to be a gold/silver bug than a crypto bug, a bond bug, or an equity bug.

Even massively suppressed by bankster conjured counterfeit dogshit...the monetary metals have stood their ground year-to-date while everything else is falling.

1649271143095.png


Oops, I meant to add a bond fund...but think somewhere between ETH and BTC losses YTD. Everything save real estate and PMs are getting hammered and real estate is heading off a cliff right now.
 

Jodster

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Perhaps, yet it's a whole lot better to be a gold/silver bug than a crypto bug, a bond bug, or an equity bug.

Even massively suppressed by bankster conjured counterfeit dogshit...the monetary metals have stood their ground year-to-date while everything else is falling.

View attachment 253654

Oops, I meant to add a bond fund...but think somewhere between ETH and BTC losses YTD. Everything save real estate and PMs are getting hammered and real estate is heading off a cliff right now.
These people are stupid, but not THAT stupid. They understand the gravity of what is happening; high inflation, stagflation leading to hyperinflation. No so "transitory" at all. They're lying until it can't be covered up, then they switch up the lies.
Lael Brainard has let it slip that massive shit is heading our way. The band isn't playing loud enough and they're all out of deck chairs. I'm quite curious how this will all end.
 

solarion

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The food shortages will be real...and that's going to lead to some governments being overthrown...see Sri Lanka now. Just how bad things get in the zerozone and US is unclear, but I'm well stocked with non-perishables, growing seedlings indoors, and shopping for farmland to transplant later...because I don't know how bad it's going to get.

IMO, it's important to over prepare because most people won't see what's coming and will need help.
 

Jodster

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Okay so Lithium Americas gets an upgrade this morning and the stock is down 10%.
Anybody want to lend some lucidity to this mess right now?

I'm starting to down-average in a little bit.
Screen Shot 2022-04-08 at 1.54.32 PM.png
 

solarion

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Much of the run up was due to the gumbymint looting the tax payers to dish out funds to those companies deemed "green" and "indispensable". Apparently the senator from West Virginia didn't get the memo. lol


It's a good company and there should be a whole lot of good news this year...but when I see things going up like it was 24-40 in a few weeks...you'd better believe I'm taking fiats off the table. Here I like it LAC to stack again.
 

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Jodster

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Much of the run up was due to the gumbymint looting the tax payers to dish out funds to those companies deemed "green" and "indispensable". Apparently the senator from West Virginia didn't get the memo. lol


It's a good company and there should be a whole lot of good news this year...but when I see things going up like it was 24-40 in a few weeks...you'd better believe I'm taking fiats off the table. Here I like it LAC to stack again.
Yeah I just can't resist a good sale on a good company. The last run has retraced to the 61.8% Fib and seems to be taking a breather. It's either up or down from here! :p
Thoughts?
 

solarion

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Well I didn't stack "moar" exactly, though I did pay a debit(2x1.28) to push my leaps up in strike price on the weakness after repeatedly taking profits on the run up...so yeah, I'm counting on higher pricetags going forward.

 

Jodster

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I bought 20 measley LAC.TO shares, hoping for lower lows. It then promptly proceeded to pop upwards 8%. FML man...
:computer:
Screen Shot 2022-04-08 at 3.48.47 PM.png
 

solarion

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You're upset that it went up AFTER you bought it? lol Never complain about gains my man.

Options man options. 20 shares @ 32 bucks each = 640 bucks. For that pricetag you probably get an August 2022 call with a strike price of 30...giving you a chance to retroactively buy 100 shares for $3640.
 

Voodoo

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You're upset that it went up AFTER you bought it? lol Never complain about gains my man.

Options man options. 20 shares @ 32 bucks each = 640 bucks. For that pricetag you probably get an August 2022 call with a strike price of 30...giving you a chance to retroactively buy 100 shares for $3640.

True, but I think he needs a little more trading practice with no leverage. Hence, the complaint about the gains. My AMC calls this week, that's a little tougher but hey, the miners had a good week.
 

solarion

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...and I suspect the miners are going to have many more good weeks to come. The fractional reserve commodity scam markets in London and NY are running out of metal.

1649450056882.png



Commodity Exposure Means Big Trouble For Banks!​

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Copper next? ...of the base metals? Well I've got my producers' calls locked up for several months going forward.

1649450416686.png


Hey, wasn't Ag production from Peru supposed to be down by 10% this year even BEFORE they began descending into chaos? Seems like of the top producers only Mexico is relatively secure...yet the price of paper silver JUST. SITS. THERE.
 

Voodoo

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Who wants to bet all that historical "stock" data is just all complete rehypothecated and made up BS. There is no reason for stocks to have shrunk by that amount.
 

solarion

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Lying about having LESS than they actually have? That would certainly be a new one. What would be the motive?

I think there are a number of factors at work lowering inventories. While the plandemic and lockdowns destroyed some demand it was even more damaging to supply. Supply chains are completely broken at this point which is a contributing factor. The real problem however has been the near total lack of capital investment due to suppressed commodity prices for the past several decades.

Now we're seeing the early phases of a new commodity super cycle and there simply isn't enough "stuff" to meet demand. Add to that the loss of trust in the "commodity" markets of the West after the nickel market blowup and it's easy to see where this is all heading. Producers are pulling hedges from markets...which means fewer shorts and longs are vanishing because even if they "win", the exchanges turn it into a loss to protect wealthy shorts and bullion banks from realized losses.

All of this is why we're seeing the crimex being turned into an actual physical commodity market right before our eyes. The inventory drawdown with regard to gold, silver, copper, and platinum there is startling.

The only inventory I personally track at any of these fractional reserve commodity scams is silver inventory at the crimex. I've kept records going back to 3/2/21. During that time registered inventory has fallen by 52.81%. Now that's just one year...and yeah all their data could be fake, but if it is, it's a very consistent fake...I've hundreds of these daily stock update spreadsheets saved. This is just a pic of March 1, 2021 inventory less Thursday April 7, 2022(yesterday) crimex silver intentory data.

1649453745744.png
 
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Jodster

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You're upset that it went up AFTER you bought it? lol Never complain about gains my man.

Options man options. 20 shares @ 32 bucks each = 640 bucks. For that pricetag you probably get an August 2022 call with a strike price of 30...giving you a chance to retroactively buy 100 shares for $3640.
Yeah when you and voodoo talk about puts and calls and things, it’s over my head. I’m no dummy but I just haven’t taken the time to learn those things.
I’m a stock trader in the same league as someone who watches sports on TV, is a hockey player.
That’s why I’ve continued to say that this forum can convey knowledge not found in any online course. You veterans encouraging, and occasionally mincing, us newbies is all the fun! :p
 

solarion

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As a relatively simple and safe(though volatile) stock replacement strategy LEAPS(Long-term equity anticipation security) are good stuff imo. This is because they tend to minimize the problems people new to options encounter with understanding how they work by minimizing the effects of time decay.

If say one were long term bullish on Lithium Americas(LAC) as apparently we both are, then one can purchase either shares of stock or call options to benefit from the belief that the shares will be trending higher over time. To compare these two approaches we have to get a handle on the cost basis. Option contracts(including LEAPS) have implied leverage because each contract represents 100 shares of the underlying asset. 1 LAC contract represents 100 shares of LAC stock. As a result we can make a few comparisons between these two approaches.

100 shares of LAC = 100*31.08(Friday's closing price) = $3108.

The currently available 2024 LEAPS on LAC on the other hand look like such:

1649510843246.png


So simply choosing the very first call option that has a strike price that's "in the money" meaning its strike price is < the current price of a share of LAC, we can see that the midpoint of the bid/ask spread on the 30 strike LEAP is 13.60. This is roughly what we'd expect to pay for this LEAP for immediate purchase. The implied 100x leverage means that the call option cost is 100x higher than what is shown...meaning $1360...and will grant the holder of the option the ability to exchange the LEAP(exercise it) for 100 shares of Lithium Americas Corp at a cost of $30*100(shares) = $3000 + the $1360 for the LEAP = $4360 and that optionality will be available until January 19, 2024.

So basically, what you're doing here, is you're purchasing a derivative of LAC shares with an associated time limit, after which it will expire worthless, that entitles you to exchange the LEAP for shares of LAC at the strike price of the call option. So if, for instance, over the course of the next 21 months LAC goes to $50 per share, you could theoretically choose to exercise your LEAP and exchange it for 100 shares of LAC at a total cost of $4360...though the shares would themselves then be worth $50*100 = $5000 for a gain of $640(+14.68%).

Now while this may not sound all that amazing compared to simply buying 100 shares of LAC at $30 per share($3000) and enjoying the run up to $50 for a profit of $2000(+66.7%), you have to keep in mind that we cannot know for certain that any of this is going to come to pass. LAC may also crash to $5 in the next 21 months...in which case the losses for the LEAP buyer would be fixed at -$1360, while the share holder would lose $2500.

In practice the above scenario will rarely play out...the LEAP buyer will almost never choose to exercise the option, but will instead simply choose to liquidate it based upon price action of the underlying asset. You can see that on Friday, while LAC shares declined by 7.39%, that 30 strike call declined by 17.79% ...this is what I mean by volatility...and it works similarly on the upside, magnifying unrealized gains(or losses) in both directions...and options do this for a significantly reduced initial outlay...in this case the difference between 100 shares of LAC at $30($3000) and a 30 strike LEAP($1360) or 45.3% of the cost.

Options also provide additional flexibility that's not available with shares, but that's a discussion for another time. The principle downsides are time decay(meaning the options slowly go to zero over time) and the holder of call options does not receive dividends.
 

solarion

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A bullish descending wedge or a death cross in the making?

1649543183001.png


With fresh <fake> inflation data coming out early next week followed almost immediately by the beginnings of a stream of bankster earnings reports, it's rather curious to see the XLF performing so poorly. After all interest rates are higher and banks supposedly thrive in a higher interest rate environment. ...but is it that simple?

What if higher rates aren't necessarily all that great for banks when the yield curve is flat as a pancake?

1649543701610.png


Banks tend to borrow on the short end and lend on the long end, but there isn't much of a spread there currently. To make matters worse they tend to collect a lot of fees refinancing mortgages, but that isn't going to be happening...as people would have to be stupid to refi in this environment. The real problem for banks however, may instead be commodity market exposure where they've underwritten a whole lot of short interests that have recently and/or are about to blow up in their faces.

JPM & BLK report on Wednesday. C, GS, MS, PNC, STT, USB, and WFC all report on Thursday. It'll be particularly interesting to hear what these...uh...businessmen...have to say with regard to forward guidance. Are we going to hear about impending "one time" earnings hits due to "hedging losses", or warnings about losses to come due to commodity trading activities?
 

dpong

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solarion

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The NY fed's March monthly inflation expectation reading came out today...up 10% from February's already high reading going from 6% to 6.6%.


The deranged propagandist press secretary's warning makes one wonder if well see a CPLie print in the double digits...ya know closer to reality.
 

dpong

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How high does it have to be for a press secretary to call it "extraordinarily elevated?"
 

the_shootist

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How high does it have to be for a press secretary to call it "extraordinarily elevated?"
Too Damned High!

I noticed she kept blaming Putin every chance she got. Certainly Dementia Joe cannot be blamed for all this inflation, can he?
 

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And yet, gold can only eek out a small gain today......
 

Voodoo

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And yet, gold can only eek out a small gain today......

Plus, in normal times higher rates are really bad for gold too. Think back to the 70's and Volker. Those rate spikes Ended the bull market and made a High in gold in what 1980? These rate hikes could mean that real rates go positive again.

However, having said that I think this situation is completely different. It is a dying currency / banking system which we've never seen. It will just take the market some time to figure out which hiding spot is best.
 

perry

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anyone remember how high interest rates were in 1980 when gold made a peak?
 

solarion

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1649719964679.png


We're light years from positive real yields right now...which is what gold actually hates...not higher rates.

...hey, I made a rhyme. Plus when price inflation "officially" climbs again tomorrow morning via the CPLie, real rates will be acknowledged to be even further negative than they are just now(-7.07%).
 

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And yet, gold can only eek out a small gain today......
Makes me wonder how many people will run to crypto or other diverse investments. Has gold lost its lustre?
 

solarion

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There's nothing wrong with gold and silver...there's everything wrong with commodity "markets". Specifically they're every bit as fake as the equity, debt, and real estate markets. The "money" is fake, which allows...and in fact incentivizes government to rig every market with piles of liquidity conjured from nothing.

1649763758589.png


At around 5am EST I noticed that all the metals were green...but suddenly tanked. All of them. The only thing I can find by way of explanation is a reuters article addressing problems in both the zinc and copper markets over at the fake commodity market in London.

Warning bells sound in London Metal Exchange zinc market: Andy Home​

Author of the article:
Reuters

Reuters
Andy Home
Publishing date:
Apr 11, 2022 • 10 hours ago

LONDON — Is zinc going to be the next nickel?

Even as the London Metal Exchange (LME) tries to reassemble the pieces of its broken nickel contract, there are signs that zinc could be the next metal market to find itself in turmoil.

A raid on LME zinc stocks has seen available tonnage fall to two-year lows. Traders are tapping the market of last resort for metal to ship to Europe, where smelting capacity has been idled by high energy prices.

The effect is to tighten LME time-spreads and keep the outright price pushing higher. Last trading at $4,320 per tonne LME three-month metal is sitting just below a potential options black hole.

There’s a strong sense of deja-vu with both the LME copper market, which had to be restrained last October, and the nickel contract, which had to be suspended in March.

PERFECT BULL STORM

Almost 60,000 tonnes of LME zinc stocks have been canceled in preparation for physical load-out since the start of the month. Singapore was raided to the tune of 40,000 tonnes with the balance split between Baltimore and New Orleans.

Total LME stocks look healthy at 123,675 tonnes, but the amount of zinc available for the physical reconciliation of contracts has slumped to 45,925 tonnes, the lowest since February 2020.

The exchange’s European warehouses hold a paltry 500 tonnes – all at the Spanish port of Bilbao – attesting to the squeeze on Europe’s physical supply chain caused by the loss of regional smelter production.


The commodity markets are fake AF and they've been running on fumes since 2020. The basic problem is that career criminal banksters cannot print physical commodities like they can their fake metal derivatives that they use to trade back and forth with one another to suppress prices.

Edit: March CPLie data out and metals naturally heading higher...at least as high as the rigged markets allow. Up another 1.2% in March and 8.5% YoY. Meanwhile despite the fed blathering about being hawkish on inflation...they've managed to lift fed funds all of 0.25% despite price inflation officially being 325% above their "target" rate.

1649766958752.png
 
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dpong

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Cup & Handle executing on Comstock (CRK). Looks like it.

[Weekend Trend Trader bought it.]

CRK_2022-04-12_10-40-49.png