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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Voodoo

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The Euro is falling apart. Who wants to take bets on how long it takes to trade at par with the USD?

The 10 year bond is also falling apart again today. Yields are way up. They really are trying to tank things I think.
 
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solarion

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...and in the US it's an excuse to sell gold and silver because "dollar strength" according to the meaningless dixy.

1649952204175.png



Westerners need to behead their so called "leadership". They're intentionally destroying their own people financially by refusing to address their stealth inflation tax.

"Never fear inflation is only 7.5%!" ...say the unelected ECB talking heads. ...meanwhile, on Earth.

1649952563915.png


How about we annualize the latest price inflation data from Germany?

1649952622059.png


That'd be 30% a year folks...but don't worry inflation is "peaking". In the US we have a 1.4% rising MoM final demand PPI...which annualized is 16.8% producer price inflation. These fucking bankers won't stop lying.
 

Voodoo

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"won't rise until projections show inflation sustainably at 2%."

:dduck: :dduck: :dduck: :dduck:

What a frelling Moron.... They are so screwed.
 

Jodster

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Looks like I better take a position soon! Entry points in SILJ, GDXJ and the juniors is hard to find. Pullbacks are brief and mild
 

solarion

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I've noticed that just in the past few weeks the gold juniors and large(r) silver producers have been reeling in the gold majors a bit. Ultimately, I believe it will be the junior silver producers that perform best, but they're all likely to do quite well in this environment.

1650286897725.png


SILJ looks somewhat rested after its breakout move from 11 to 15.

1650286976218.png
 

dpong

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And so on.. and so on.

CRK_2022-04-18_12-28-58.png
 

Lancers32

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SILJ bearish engulfing on decent volume.
 

Lancers32

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UEC closes $5.73. Might be a good upside scalp if we can get down to around $5.50 or so but I wouldn't overstay my welcome on the U shares at this point. DNN looks sick as hell. No new highs on this move except for UEC and CCJ. Careful.
 

perry

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What's the future for gold? I wasn't expecting that drop.
 

savvydon

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What's the future for gold? I wasn't expecting that drop.
It is a managed day. Gold is gold. The real question is what is the future for the dollar. 2c...
 

Jodster

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The depreciation of the dollar value over time should make gold more valuable.
It's not "should" until the manipulators lose control.
Day traders gonna trade, but the silver rockets won't launch for a while. Cabal still has way too many tools left for manipulation.
 

perry

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It's not "should" until the manipulators lose control.
Day traders gonna trade, but the silver rockets won't launch for a while. Cabal still has way too many tools left for manipulation.
I flunked at English. I think the Russian-Ukranian conflict may have a little role in the current price.
 

savvydon

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The depreciation of the dollar value over time should make gold more valuable.
Gold was $35/oz when Nixon closed the gold window in '71.
 

perry

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bank stocks are up a lot today, they certainly know how to manipulate gold
 

Jodster

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SILJ is a go unless they can close it convincingly under $15.20
Sorry to be contrary Lancers, but I almost bought a load yesterday, then I realized I'm usually wrong so I only bought 50 . . waited for today . . and Voila!
I think sensible entry points are listed on the 3 month chart below:
Because we think it's set up for a moonshot, almost certainly means it's not.
silj.png
 

Lancers32

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I know you said you were itching to buy yesterday.
 

Jodster

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I know you said you were itching to buy yesterday.
Yeah I think I’m just curious how many of us are dipping a toe in vs. waiting on the sidelines.
I did some research into semiconductor manufacturers today. Seems between 75-80% of all chips are made in Taiwan.
If China goes in, drastic things will happen.
Did you know that there’s only one manufacturer of semiconductor printing machines? Check out ticker ASML.
Dry powder is itchy...
 

Jodster

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Kinda quiet in here. Below is a 6 month comparison of various commodity funds; silver, lithium, rare earths, uranium, etc.
The sentiment is a weak peak and a probable retracement of about 15%. The only outlier is Lithium (LAC), which seems to have some momentum behind it.
Screenshot 2022-04-21 at 10-53-02 Questrade Edge.png
 

Lancers32

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Yeah I think I’m just curious how many of us are dipping a toe in vs. waiting on the sidelines.
I did some research into semiconductor manufacturers today. Seems between 75-80% of all chips are made in Taiwan.
If China goes in, drastic things will happen.
Did you know that there’s only one manufacturer of semiconductor printing machines? Check out ticker ASML.
Dry powder is itchy...

Sidelines miners and Uranium have an order in for UEC at $5.35 not sure at this point about that. Might work lower might not. Cash is a position.
 

Jodster

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Sidelines miners and Uranium have an order in for UEC at $5.35 not sure at this point about that. Might work lower might not. Cash is a position.
Yeah I'm seeing some good sales on SILX, REMX, LAC.TO, and DWACW, all of which im starting to DCA into. Small positions but starting the ball rolling.
And a funny story with BSK.VN. I had a stink bid in with BSK.VN at 20 cents. someone muffed up and must have hit sell instead of buy so I got 1000 shares even though the price was 30 cents. It never hurts to try.
 
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Jodster

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Not the prettiest of Elliot Waves but GDXU seems to have completed a 1 to 5, ABC cycle. Set's see if my cheap ass can get my low bid filled.
GDXU.png

Elliott1.png
 

Lancers32

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Sidelines miners and Uranium have an order in for UEC at $5.35 not sure at this point about that. Might work lower might not. Cash is a position.

Stopped out immediately. Wave count on this one? Don't use Elliot never wrapped my head around it.


UEC_2022-04-21_14-30-16.png
 

Jodster

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Stopped out immediately. Wave count on this one? Don't use Elliot never wrapped my head around it.


View attachment 255269
I don't exactly bet my life on Elliot Wave theory either, but the Algorithm programmers DO. So the market acts in Elliot waves because it's a theory that has gained traction with the manipulators. Therefore it's become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Just because I'm bored, I started fuckin' round with the 3 month chart. As you can see below, the 38% Fibonacci retracement was met today, there will be an 11% rise and then a 25% drop from there to complete the wave. 62% Fib retracement would give you a solid entry point of $4.20 or so.
Uranium is the crazy hot chick that you wish you could take home to your mother, but you know it will end badly. So you use it for what it's worth and GTFO.
I'm now almost entirely out of Uranium plays and will only buy the funds URNM an HURA.TO from now on.


UEC.png
 

Jodster

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Is it just me or is everything getting an ass-whoopin' today? Portfolio down 5%. And then I went to the news and didn't see anything to cause it.
CNN is doing their usual garbage coverage of Ukraine and some crap about netflix. No nuclear war, no Presidential arrests . . just meh.

Anybody got theories on why Commodities got monkey-hammered today?
 

Lancers32

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Don't know what you mean by algorithm programmers.
 

Jodster

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An algorithm is a program that executes certain tasks while following rules put in by the programmer.
Using Artificial Intelligence, the Algo's are so smart now, they almost always pick the peaks and valleys in stock fluctuations. The only way to beat an algo is to understand how they work. I've done a lot of programming , including PID loops and other analog factors. As I keep learning how stock trading works, I can see the Algo's working via the volumes. It's interesting stuff.
Stocks are now a matter of man vs. machine.
Suppose the computer programmer uses strict Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci ratios for the Algorithms. By knowing when the big boys will sell or buy, you can get in just ahead of them, as the Algo's follow their fixed rules. Artificial intelligence allows the algorithms to "learn" from past stock experiences and adapt.
By being about 5% less greedy then the Algo programmers, it feels like the bottom's are easier to call. I haven't figured out the Algo's for selling yet, but I'll keep working on it.
Below is where I saw "Hunting" of the Algorithm and I decided to buy. When an Algo can't decide what to do it will oscillate very small waves. I used them to pick up some DWACW shares at what I believe is a bottom.

DWACW.png
 

Lancers32

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I know what an algo is what I want to know is what wave does your algo put any of these Uranium stocks.
 

Jodster

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Another time today when I saw the Algo "Hunting".
There are Loop factors called "Proportional" and "Integral" gains. Proportional is how aggressive the loop is. Integral is the offset from a certain setpoint or target price. When you see those micro-oscillations, you know the Algo is maxed out.
Picked up some LAC using that same technique. Was within $0.48 from the absolute bottom.


LAC.png
 

Jodster

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I know what an algo is what I want to know is what wave does your algo put any of these Uranium stocks.
That's the great mystery. Every Algo has it's own characteristics. What works for TSLA won't work for a 3 times leveraged fund.
Part of my former job was PID loop tuning. There are 3 characteristics of a loop/Algo.
Proportional gain is the power or force with which the Algo moves.
Integral gain is the accuracy of a target price. it can look for a very exact number or a wide span, depending on this parameter.
Derivative gain is the speed at which the Algo moves and can be seen in in panic selloffs or FOMO buying.

Knowing the above, programmers can "Tune" their Algo's to the volatility and risk tolerance of any stock. I have no doubt the larger funds have rooms of mathematicians crunching this shit in real time. In sports, they would be called "Analytics".
The only way I know to cheat this system is to recognize the above characteristics and reverse engineer it's moves. The Algorithms can then be very predictable for future bets.
An elephant is not a Falcon is not a cheetah.
 

Lancers32

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Some of the greatest traders of all time used support resistance fib retracements things like that. Gets too complicated and it just gets more confusing than need be.
 

Jodster

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Not sure what you mean by 'a 1 to 5 ABC cycle'.
Just google Elliot wave theory. There is much validity to it. Basically stocks zig zag up in 5 steps and down in 3 steps.
Then google stock Fibonacci levels. There is much validity to that also. The zigs and zags of the Elliot waves happen in well defined ratios or percentages especially on ABC retracements.
To understand the manipulation of markets is the most valid point of all.
 

savvydon

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Just google Elliot wave theory. There is much validity to it. Basically stocks zig zag up in 5 steps and down in 3 steps.
Then google stock Fibonacci levels. There is much validity to that also. The zigs and zags of the Elliot waves happen in well defined ratios or percentages especially on ABC retracements.
To understand the manipulation of markets is the most valid point of all.
I'm pretty familiar with Elliot. My understanding is that in a bull market the 1-5 steps are in the bull trend and the ABC steps are overall corrective. In a bear market it is the reverse. Not sure if you were saying there was a 1-5 step wave set within an ABC or what. just trying to get a bead on where you thought we were in the GDX.
 

Lancers32

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While Robert Prechter didn't discover the Elliot Wave Theory he certainly wrote a couple of books about it with Frost. He had some great results even won Trader of the Year 2 years running 1984-1985 but he made a lot of bad calls after that time period. If you are really interested in it you should read the addendum in his book published after Gold made the $850 high where he stated Gold was in a bear market but could still make a new high. This from about 40 years ago.
Then you have the X wave. Then you have truncated or missing waves like currently exist in some of the Uranium shares. Rear view it might help but real time or predictive I have serious doubts.