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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

savvydon

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I read the Procter book, the original stuff by Elliot and a few other things. Although Elliot can help rule out certain scenarios it usually won't give firm real time direction. As you mention, it often looks good in the rear view mirror. I found the X wave thing a tad annoying. It was kind of like saying that the theory of Relativity explains the way the universe works, except when it doesn't.
 

Jodster

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I'm pretty familiar with Elliot. My understanding is that in a bull market the 1-5 steps are in the bull trend and the ABC steps are overall corrective. In a bear market it is the reverse. Not sure if you were saying there was a 1-5 step wave set within an ABC or what. just trying to get a bead on where you thought we were in the GDX.
Yeah I didn't do Major or Micro wave analysis; that's too advanced for me. But sometimes the patterns just seem to fit almost textbook-style.
The gist of the conversation is that I believe the programmers of automated trading platforms are using these theories to code their algorithms.
Like anything else in life, they're far from perfect, but I can see the patterns sometimes as I had posted above for UEC. Once you have an eye for PID algorithms (my guess is that the programmers use these in part) it's easier to make intuitive judgements.
My guess is that the uranium market is a combination of pumpers and suppressors so the waveforms will struggle to be classic Elliot waves and Fib levels.
These theories probably work best in an open and unmanipulated market.
 

Lancers32

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I believe Prechter once stated that the theory doesn't work well with commodities due to the fact that there is an unlimited number of contracts that can be bought and sold. To a limited extent the same can be said about stocks.
 

Lancers32

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This can't be news to anyone here but CNBC has been talking up Uranium for the last little while.
 

Lancers32

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HL and SILJ worth a look here.
 

Voodoo

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I believe Prechter once stated that the theory doesn't work well with commodities due to the fact that there is an unlimited number of contracts that can be bought and sold. To a limited extent the same can be said about stocks.

Or more likely, it doesn't work well with commodities because they have been so manipulated. It's not a natural price action.
 

Lancers32

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Or more likely, it doesn't work well with commodities because they have been so manipulated. It's not a natural price action.
Operators have been manipulating stock prices since they traded under the tree.
 

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Operators have been manipulating stock prices since they traded under the tree.

Sure, but on a much smaller scale and not able to control anything of size. In order to keep commodity prices down would take much, much more money.
 

dpong

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Elliot waves tend to work best when looking backwards in time. Forwards in time is more difficult. :)
 

dpong

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I'm 25% invested in the miners, down from 75% invested.
 

<SLV>

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Elliot waves tend to work best when looking backwards in time. Forwards in time is more difficult. :)
I am an expert in predicting the past.
 

Lancers32

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Leery of everything might get short term bounces but not liking the looks of things.
 

Jodster

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Leery of everything might get short term bounces but not liking the looks of things.
I agree. The more I look, the worse they get.
And now that I took solid positions last week,the bottom will really drop out!
 

Lancers32

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An Elliot perspective or two on Gold.


 

Tbonz

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We are entering into an era that I can only best be described as, OH Sh!t!!!!!

The direction that we are seeing with our economy, the sabotage of our food processing plants, and so many other things are pointing in the "OH Sh!t direction."
 

Jodster

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I agree. The more I look, the worse they get.
And now that I took solid positions last week,the bottom will really drop out!
I was truly thinking last Friday was the bottom in metals. But here we are today, looking at another significant drop. Still 3/4ths in cash.
I was expecting another rally at some point, followed by a devastating final crash. Maybe this is the big one now? Who knows.
Thoughts?
 

dpong

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I was truly thinking last Friday was the bottom in metals. But here we are today, looking at another significant drop. Still 3/4ths in cash.
I was expecting another rally at some point, followed by a devastating final crash. Maybe this is the big one now? Who knows.
Thoughts?
Glad I sold down to 25% on Friday. Will likely be at 0% after today.
Stop loss levels work when our monkey-brains don't.
 

Jodster

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Glad I sold down to 25% on Friday. Will likely be at 0% after today.
Stop loss levels work when our monkey-brains don't.
If you're stop-lossing out and not buying in this dip, I assume you don't think the pain is over yet?
 

Lancers32

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SILJ $12.50 supports on this decline or this can get really ugly. I am doing nothing at this point.
 

Lancers32

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Sure, but on a much smaller scale and not able to control anything of size. In order to keep commodity prices down would take much, much more money.
Since the advent of futures trading and options on futures the big boyz have been able to manipulate the market but not on the order of what occurred in the old days.

 

Jodster

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Gonna play with fire and down cost average into GDXU.
Some good sales, but it ain't Black Friday yet...
Screenshot 2022-04-25 at 12-03-34 Questrade Edge.png
 

dpong

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If you're stop-lossing out and not buying in this dip, I assume you don't think the pain is over yet?
I try to trade in a way that it doesn't much matter what I think. Thus the monkey-brain reference.
I buy when it's going up and if it goes down I sell it.
One day the miner complex is going to go crazy higher, but that day isn't today.
 

dpong

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I bought GDXJ (which I still own) because it was trending higher. I set the stop loss very loosely and was quite generous. If it closes below that stop loss level it would be hard to argue that GDXJ is trending higher. I probably should have put it on more tightly, *but I thought it was going to be the big one*. It still could be. But if it closes below that stop level it's going to the curb. Because otherwise my monkey-brain can make up a story to rationalize *anything*.

GDXJ_2022-04-25_15-42-12.png
 

dpong

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https---bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com-public-images-a5380f3...jpeg
 

Jodster

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I got in some GDXU and DWACW close to the bottoms.
U.UN.TO also popped a stink bid.
And 1 share of ASML because I think when China goes into Taiwan, these guys will be busy as fuck.

Missed bids on URC.WT.VN, SILJ, BSK.VN, and SILX. Maybe tomorrow if the sky keeps falling. If not, then I might bounce up a bit.
Portfolio was down 6% earlier today but I ended up only losing about 2% because of various rebounds.

Today sucked all around but hopefully you guys found some deals at the yard sale.
 

Lancers32

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Today was a good day if you came in flat. Really only interested in UUUU and UEC at the moment. Watch today's lows they match up with previous bottoms the $4.30 level in UEC and UUUU around $7.50. UEC seem to be the strongest. Bounces occur in downtrends too so heads up.
 

Jodster

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Bit of a dry delivery but really good content.
 

Voodoo

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The Yen seems to have found a bottom but Both the Euro and British Pound are breaking down now. Euro is getting close to the Pandemic lows and after that is getting close to parity with the Dollar. Around 1.07 now.
 

Jodster

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Doesn't seem like today will have a happy ending either. Japan actually leading the currencies. Greece leading the international ETF's.
Freakin cartoon world.
Screenshot 2022-04-26 at 10-35-35 Meme Creator - Funny Bro You got any vaseline Meme Generator...png
 

Lancers32

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Musk needs to get rid of all the assholes that ran the Twitter site and replace them.
 

the_shootist

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Musk needs to get rid of all the assholes that ran the Twitter site and replace them.
We'll have to wait and see how that circus shakes out now once the transfer of ownership is completed. Anyone have any idea how long something like that takes?
 

BeefJerky

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We'll have to wait and see how that circus shakes out now once the transfer of ownership is completed. Anyone have any idea how long something like that takes?
I would like to get even money that it doesn't happen.
 

dpong

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I'm 0% invested in the miners.

GDXJ_2022-04-26_14-49-40.png
 

perry

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Musk needs to get rid of all the assholes that ran the Twitter site and replace them.
Musk is doing something that Myspace failed to do. Wouldn't want to call them dorks, they've done everything to stay in business. As long as corrupt Politicians like Senator Elizabeth Warren doesn't take over and put in fake shit.