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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Jodster

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I'm 0% invested in the miners.

View attachment 256078
What would you invest in next, and when?

The small DWACW I bought yesterday is up 21%. Not enough to make much, but it offset losses today. Set some stop losses for others.
Just a wild ass guess, but I think metals climb a bit from here and then crash. I think the manipulators were using the last two days, as a test, to see what people would tolerate. There's much more fuckery to come, but money can be made in the interim.

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dpong

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dpong

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What would you invest in next, and when?
I run my own Weekend Trend Trader non discretionary trend following trading system that trades the small caps.
I have a certain amount set aside for mining stocks. Currently those funds are in cash.
I have converted my thinking over time. I am a trend follower. I don't want to pick a bottom. I don't need to buy a bargain. I want to see a trend and jump aboard using stop loss levels to get out. Sell losers let winners run.
This is what I do now.

[It is possible that I trade this way because I'm just not very good at other trading styles. That could be the case.]
 

Jodster

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I run my own Weekend Trend Trader non discretionary trend following trading system that trades the small caps.
I have a certain amount set aside for mining stocks. Currently those funds are in cash.
I have converted my thinking over time. I am a trend follower. I don't want to pick a bottom. I don't need to buy a bargain. I want to see a trend and jump aboard using stop loss levels to get out. Sell losers let winners run.
This is what I do now.

[It is possible that I trade this way because I'm just not very good at other trading styles. That could be the case.]
Yeah I respect your approach. Some people like momentum, others like a bargain. To each their own.
I'm seeing the stock market more and more like a casino. If you play long enough, you'll eventually run out of money; the odds always favor the house.
When we see pullbacks like we have the last few days, it feels like good, solid and sound companies get duped on rumors. The rebound almost always happens. Catching the falling knife is the only risk but down-cost averaging can also work.
I'm just curious what some of you use to make decisions. Is it technical charts, the media, or a gut feeling? Many things to ponder.
 

Lancers32

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Yeah I respect your approach. Some people like momentum, others like a bargain. To each their own.
I'm seeing the stock market more and more like a casino. If you play long enough, you'll eventually run out of money; the odds always favor the house.
When we see pullbacks like we have the last few days, it feels like good, solid and sound companies get duped on rumors. The rebound almost always happens. Catching the falling knife is the only risk but down-cost averaging can also work.
I'm just curious what some of you use to make decisions. Is it technical charts, the media, or a gut feeling? Many things to ponder.

I would prefer to buy as close to the danger point as possible. Stops can be placed close to a bottom and though sometimes the trade is subject to a stop hunt I prefer doing this to paying up.
Example though I did not take the trade is SILJ now. $12.20 is the last bottom you can risk a couple of % if right you got the bottom if not the loss is small and the stop can be placed logically. I do not like to use equity stops like if I buy and stock XYZ goes down 5% I would sell.
No one can say for certain that the metals are even in a bull market at this point. Probably but I would be careful now.
 

dpong

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If you play long enough, you'll eventually run out of money; the odds always favor the house.
One of the intriguing things about a nondiscretionary trading system is the fact that since it is completely mechanical (no guessing) then you can program it and expose it to historical prices to back-test what the results would have been. This is what I have done. The system I use has ups and downs but in the long run it has done fantastic (on paper). My "career" trading this system is not yet long enough to give the final verdict.
 

Jodster

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cautiously thinking today will be a green day?!?

(damn, maybe that's where they got the name!!)
 

Lancers32

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They can close Gold under $1870 on the weekly I would be very cautious.
 

Jodster

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Here's a peek at the portfolio. Time to set the stop-loss limits.
Screenshot 2022-04-27 at 10-28-44 Questrade Edge.png
 

Jodster

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What would you invest in next, and when?

The small DWACW I bought yesterday is up 21%. Not enough to make much, but it offset losses today. Set some stop losses for others.
Just a wild ass guess, but I think metals climb a bit from here and then crash. I think the manipulators were using the last two days, as a test, to see what people would tolerate. There's much more fuckery to come, but money can be made in the interim.

Never bet against Trump...
View attachment 256085
DWACW Stop triggered at -6% loss. Made a gain of 77% averaged. Buy the rumor, sell the news? I only threw play money at it so first round is on me... Could have been savage if I wasn't so shit-scared to commit.
$14.50 would be a good re-entry point, as I believe it will make it back into the $23 range. Not financial advice...

dwacw.png
 

jelly

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I have to say, I haven't seem bloodshed like this in the mining stocks for a very long time. Something is amiss.
 

jelly

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USD going parabolic. I suspect we get a reversal soon.
usd.png
 

savvydon

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USD going parabolic. I suspect we get a reversal soon.
View attachment 256304
It is still running. 103.61 as I type. This is an epic move. If we get a monthly close above 104 tomorrow we are looking at a multi year break out with possible room to run further.
 

Jodster

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It is still running. 103.61 as I type. This is an epic move. If we get a monthly close above 104 tomorrow we are looking at a multi year break out with possible room to run further.
Anybody wanna tell me what this means for commodities, specifically our fav shiny metals and their miners? According to the Hemke article you posted, there's going to be rate hikes, higher inflation, higher dollar, higher yield curve?
Man, there's too much data to crunch... In times like these I just wanna stick to the basics.
Printing press is out of control and the Fed doesn't have any brakes on the crowded bus. The metals and miners wanna run, but the paper is squashing it, and there seems no end in sight to the paper.
 

savvydon

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Anybody wanna tell me what this means for commodities, specifically our fav shiny metals and their miners? According to the Hemke article you posted, there's going to be rate hikes, higher inflation, higher dollar, higher yield curve?
Man, there's too much data to crunch... In times like these I just wanna stick to the basics.
Printing press is out of control and the Fed doesn't have any brakes on the crowded bus. The metals and miners wanna run, but the paper is squashing it, and there seems no end in sight to the paper.
There are a lot of plates spinning at the moment. The fact that gold has hung in there as well as it has with this dollar eruption is pretty impressive. I think Hemke feels like the stock market is going to puke early with the tightening, leading to a Powell pivot of loosening again. When that happens he expects PM markets to soar. We should get an idea about how much further we have to go in this metals/miners move down when we get Cot numbers tomorrow.
 

Jodster

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There are a lot of plates spinning at the moment. The fact that gold has hung in there as well as it has with this dollar eruption is pretty impressive. I think Hemke feels like the stock market is going to puke early with the tightening, leading to a Powell pivot of loosening again. When that happens he expects PM markets to soar. We should get an idea about how much further we have to go in this metals/miners move down when we get Cot numbers tomorrow.
Yeah I agree and I’ll be very open with my strategy. . .
I’m a “buy the dip” kinda guy. And like Dpong, I was heavy cash and light stocks.
The dip earlier this week had me 50/50% stonks and cash. A lot of stop losses triggered yesterday so I’m heavier cash once again.
The reason I mention this is that I’m expecting the mother of all crashes soon. This will be my buying opportunity. But when this will happen could be weeks months or years. I don’t know.
So the trick is to stay liquid enough to take advantage of a mega-crash but not be sitting in cash the whole time.
Spinning plates was a perfect analogy.

EDIT: My millionaire uncle once told me, “I’m an opportunist. If it’s good and it’s on sale, I buy it.”
He has made a mint in anything from land to cars, motorcycles and even commercial licences. When I saw Truth Social cratering, I thought of his words.
 

savvydon

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Yeah I agree and I’ll be very open with my strategy. . .
I’m a “buy the dip” kinda guy. And like Dpong, I was heavy cash and light stocks.
The dip earlier this week had me 50/50% stonks and cash. A lot of stop losses triggered yesterday so I’m heavier cash once again.
The reason I mention this is that I’m expecting the mother of all crashes soon. This will be my buying opportunity. But when this will happen could be weeks months or years. I don’t know.
So the trick is to stay liquid enough to take advantage of a mega-crash but not be sitting in cash the whole time.
Spinning plates was a perfect analogy.

EDIT: My millionaire uncle once told me, “I’m an opportunist. If it’s good and it’s on sale, I buy it.”
He has made a mint in anything from land to cars, motorcycles and even commercial licences. When I saw Truth Social cratering, I thought of his words.
My problem with metals is I'm a permabull type of guy. I always see the reasons for it to go up and curse at the evil cartel when they go down. It is good to be flexible and play in lotsa markets, but i'm not always comfortable playing in ones I don't know so well. So instead I tend to stay where my sensibilities are warped and keep banging my head up against the illusion I have created there. I think the really good businessmen/traders are the ones who can be nimble and 'hold on loosely' in whatever market where opportunity knocks for them.
 

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Yeah I agree and I’ll be very open with my strategy. . .
I’m a “buy the dip” kinda guy. And like Dpong, I was heavy cash and light stocks.
The dip earlier this week had me 50/50% stonks and cash. A lot of stop losses triggered yesterday so I’m heavier cash once again.
The reason I mention this is that I’m expecting the mother of all crashes soon. This will be my buying opportunity. But when this will happen could be weeks months or years. I don’t know.
So the trick is to stay liquid enough to take advantage of a mega-crash but not be sitting in cash the whole time.
Spinning plates was a perfect analogy.

EDIT: My millionaire uncle once told me, “I’m an opportunist. If it’s good and it’s on sale, I buy it.”
He has made a mint in anything from land to cars, motorcycles and even commercial licences. When I saw Truth Social cratering, I thought of his words.

The problem is we don't know that Truth Social is good yet. And even if it is a good platform will it ever make money?

The Yen has cratered to 20 year lows. The real issues are many sovereign currencies and debts are in mega trouble. It was always thought that this would lead to a surge in the dollar to start as they need it to repay their debts or back their system.
 

Lancers32

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orwell.png
 

Lancers32

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Worked for the Kenyan.


elon musk hawaii birth certificate.JPG
 

Lancers32

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Sometimes they work sometimes they do not.


 

dpong

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It occurred. S&P500 monthly candle closed below the 20 month moving average.

I move my retirement accounts 100% to cash by selling S&P Large cap funds. The chart shows a 44% gain in 2 years.

[Now I wait for it to close *above* the 20 month moving average.]

SPX_2022-04-29_16-15-09.png
 
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Jodster

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It occurred. S&P500 monthly candle closed below the 20 month moving average.

I move my retirement accounts 100% to cash by selling S&P Large cap funds. The chart shows a 44% gain in 2 years.

[Now I wait for it to close *above* the 20 month moving average.]

View attachment 256496
Kinda went over my head, Dpong. I’ve heard other chartists say that this would be the final indicator of a crash. Is that your thought?
 

Lancers32

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dpong

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Kinda went over my head, Dpong. I’ve heard other chartists say that this would be the final indicator of a crash. Is that your thought?
[It's not technical analysis. Nothing is predicted.]

It's a system that I use to slow-trade my retirement accounts (think 401K). They have rules against frequent trading. By using a monthly chart I get maximum of 1 buy or sell signal per month, so it fits my retirement accounts trading rules.

By selling when the month closes below the 20 month moving average, you do not sit through the huge drawdowns experienced in say 2001 and 2008. I couldn't sleep at night if I tried to stay in for those.

Then I buy when the month closes above the 20 month moving average. That's the whole thing. It simply sidesteps some of the more ferocious takedowns.

When close above 20 month moving average, buy. When close below 20 month moving average, sell.
It sounds too simple, but next up I'll show you its scorecard going back to 1923.
 
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dpong

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I just closed the 41st trade.

[If this represented the sum of all your trades.... You did good!]


Window_and_SnP500_Slow_Trade_Backtest_Results.jpg
 

dpong

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Here's 2001 and 2008. Look at the drawdowns that would have been avoided.

[50% drawdowns avoided.]

SPX_2022-04-29_17-24-25.png
 
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Lancers32

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Nice results even considering the fact that stocks have been going up on balance since 1932. But then stocks always come back or so my son is trying to tell me.
 

dpong

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Nice results even considering the fact that stocks have been going up on balance since 1932. But then stocks always come back or so my son is trying to tell me.
Yeah, they do until they don't, right?
 

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Well dpong tell me when you are buying. I’m sitting on a ton of cash (for me). Don’t want to lose to inflation but don’t want to lose big in the bear market I’ve been expecting for 10 years. I was actually trying to dollar cost average in starting today. My wife’s account was frozen near the close, probably too many sellers so I was spared.
 
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dpong

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Well dpong tell me when you are buying. I’m sitting on a ton of cash (for me). Don’t want to lose to inflation but don’t want to lose big in the bear market I’ve been expecting for 10 years. I was actually trying to dollar cost average in starting today. My wife’s account was frozen near the close, probably too many sellers so I was spared.
When the S&P 500 closes the month above its 20 month moving average, I'm sure I will be excited and post it here. [That I'm buying.]
 

Lancers32

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Yeah, they do until they don't, right?

Big money needs a place to go but we know of at least one group that won't be buying into US assets. Idiot in Charge just mumbled they are going after the kleptocracy and you know who that is. Humorous considering he's in the group himself.
Buying stock market crashes has worked in the past but we may be getting so far down the line who knows what happens. You can hide out in physical Gold but I wouldn't know how you could move it or where you would even want to go.
 

Jodster

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Here's 2001 and 2008. Look at the drawdowns that would have been avoided.

[50% drawdowns avoided.]

View attachment 256504
Thanks for your answer. I’m about 50% cash. I think if I can exit my positions with a profit, I will.
I’m kinda thinking like your monthly charts Dpong. There is a drawdown coming, but I think this one will be massive. There’s just too much odd shit going on in the world today; Ukraine, corrupt presidency and media, fake markets, vaccine genocide...
I think it’s going to be paramount to hide in the background and profit in a low key manner.
Timing a rigged market will be difficult but I think it’s obvious that a “Big one” is coming by this September. Until then I’ll try to eke out a few percent here and there.