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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Fabian and a simple strategy for using moving averages to try to time the market. These types of systems work well in trending markets but are subject to whipsaws in non trending markets. Again the systems will always buy well off the bottom but in their defense you will likely be out of market crashes. Pick your poison.


 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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Armstrong.

 

gnome

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JPY absolutely REKT

Screen Shot 2022-05-02 at 1.12.49 AM.png
 

Lancers32

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Jodster

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Okay so what's happening today? Feels like time for another Vaseline meme...
Even my ridiculous stink bids are getting filled today, that's literally not good.
 

jelly

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I think this is capitulation. GDX finally hit the .618 rectracement of this recent move from the lows. I think we might have to wait until after the fed meeting before the metals will rally,but I think this has flushed out everyone. Maybe a little bit lower, maybe $1850ish gold yet on the dowside, but miners are looking like a good time to buy.

Whatever the case, I don't think those holding silver miners have ever been this dismayed before. Like the last 5 months never happened - back at the lows for the poor little silvers.
 

dpong

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Deflation scare later this year, I think.
 

Jodster

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Deflation scare later this year, I think.
With all due respect, young man, I'd bet it's more like Stagflation. Prices will not fall, the US Debt isn't going anywhere and the shortages will keep demand and prices high for any consumables. Plus, with US Mid-terms coming up this fall, printing press go Brrrrrr-Whirrrrrr a lot.

From Investopedia:

Although as consumers we may hate rising prices, many economists believe a moderate degree of inflation is healthy for a nation’s economy. Typically, central banks aim to maintain inflation around 2% to 3%.1 Increases in inflation significantly beyond this range can lead to fears of possible hyperinflation, a devastating scenario in which inflation rises rapidly out of control.

There have been several notable instances of hyperinflation throughout history. The most famous example is Germany during the early 1920s when inflation reached 30,000% per month. Zimbabwe offers an even more extreme example. According to research by Steve H. Hanke and Alex K. F. Kwok, monthly price increases in Zimbabwe reached an estimated 79,600,000,000% in November 2008.2

Stagflation (a time of economic stagnation combined with inflation) can also wreak havoc. This type of inflation is a witch’s brew of economic adversity, combining poor economic growth, high unemployment, and severe inflation all in one. Although recorded instances of stagflation are rare, the phenomenon occurred as recently as the 1970s, when it gripped the United States and the United Kingdom—much to the dismay of both nations’ central banks.
 

dpong

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We’ll see. If it weren’t contra narrative I wouldn’t have bothered to post it.
 

Jodster

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We’ll see. If it weren’t contra narrative I wouldn’t have bothered to post it.
Exactly, and that's why I like this forum. I had to do my own research to verify I was thinking Stagflation.
There's a good chance I'm wrong but I can't see prices dropping in the future. What gives you the feeling it will be deflationary?
Wouldn't they just "stimulate" their way out of . . . ohhhh . . AHHHH! I see what you did there . .

The deflationary "scare" would be the reason FOR printing more money :p
 

dpong

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You might be onto something there, Jodster.

My thinking is that the rising prices (price inflation, asset inflation) is based on extra loose money that was previously created. We are seeing the after-burner effects from that. However, new money is really not being created at a very high rate any longer. Fed is raising rates and draining balance sheet (destroying base money) to fight inflation. I think money will end up tighter than they intended... causing a deflation scare.

[Something's bound to pop the real estate bubble. If rising rates don't do it, what will? Rhymes with deflation scare.]

[In a deflation scare consumer prices don't necessarily fall, but money is tight causing some asset liquidation. 2008 comes to mind.]

[We'll see.]
 

dpong

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I didn't get the idea from Ackerman, but he doesn't seem to disagree with my hypothesis.

 

dpong

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Dollar Chart.

[Relative to other currencies.]

DXY_2022-05-03_16-00-45.png
 

dpong

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10 year yield.

[Is $$$ money getting looser or tighter? And does it matter?]

TNX_2022-05-03_16-02-40.png
 

dpong

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Interview with Rick Ackerman queued up. I haven't listened yet, but should be interesting and topical.

[Fair warning: Rick has been a bit of a career deflationist. It is a bit of a "go to" topic for him. That said, he's sharp.]

 

Jodster

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See video below.
BBE7F17D-F499-454E-8218-1E5B86149A03.jpeg
 
Last edited:

Jodster

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Also from Hemke:

Gold has been trending higher since late 2018 as real interest rates have trended lower. In the first third of 2022, price may continue to struggle as the Fed plays their rhetorical games. Another trip to $1680 may be coming. If things get particularly nasty, gold may even see $1580. HOWEVER—AND THIS IS IMPORTANT—this sort of drop will be the lows of the year if it occurs.

The first thing to watch for as the reversal begins will be a sharp drop in the S&P 500. It took a 20% drop in November 2018 to convince the Fed to reverse course, and it may take slightly more than that in 2022 to accomplish the same. As stocks fall, however, the bond market will reverse due to "safe haven" demand. Lower nominal rates will then reverse the trend toward higher real rates and gold will find a floor.

Take another look at that monthly chart above. Notice that the Fed began to shift policy in December of 2018 but it wasn't formalized into a rate cut regime until June of 2019. Those intervening six months saw gold rally from $1160 to $1360. The fed funds rate cuts that began in June 2019 then drove price to $1560 by early September. This is your most likely historical basis for what to expect from gold in 2022.

In short, the first four months of 2022 will be challenging, with gold behaving much as it did during the entirety of 2021. However, the trend will finally change during the period from May-August and price will begin a recognizable trend higher. And then, in the final four months of the year, gold will shine with prices back above $2000 and threatening the all-time highs of August 2020.

Price began 2022 at $1830. It may soon dip toward $1700, but it will again find support near that level. From there, some higher highs will finally appear on the daily chart, and this will get the attention of the hedge funds and the generalists. Momentum and sentiment will turn higher and gold will rally further, ending the year at $2050. That would be just a 12% gain, and if you look again at Ronni's chart, that would be pretty close to the recent 15-year average. I may be low-balling it a little bit, but after the frustration of 2021, can you blame me?
 

savvydon

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Also from Hemke:

Gold has been trending higher since late 2018 as real interest rates have trended lower. In the first third of 2022, price may continue to struggle as the Fed plays their rhetorical games. Another trip to $1680 may be coming. If things get particularly nasty, gold may even see $1580. HOWEVER—AND THIS IS IMPORTANT—this sort of drop will be the lows of the year if it occurs.

The first thing to watch for as the reversal begins will be a sharp drop in the S&P 500. It took a 20% drop in November 2018 to convince the Fed to reverse course, and it may take slightly more than that in 2022 to accomplish the same. As stocks fall, however, the bond market will reverse due to "safe haven" demand. Lower nominal rates will then reverse the trend toward higher real rates and gold will find a floor.

Take another look at that monthly chart above. Notice that the Fed began to shift policy in December of 2018 but it wasn't formalized into a rate cut regime until June of 2019. Those intervening six months saw gold rally from $1160 to $1360. The fed funds rate cuts that began in June 2019 then drove price to $1560 by early September. This is your most likely historical basis for what to expect from gold in 2022.

In short, the first four months of 2022 will be challenging, with gold behaving much as it did during the entirety of 2021. However, the trend will finally change during the period from May-August and price will begin a recognizable trend higher. And then, in the final four months of the year, gold will shine with prices back above $2000 and threatening the all-time highs of August 2020.

Price began 2022 at $1830. It may soon dip toward $1700, but it will again find support near that level. From there, some higher highs will finally appear on the daily chart, and this will get the attention of the hedge funds and the generalists. Momentum and sentiment will turn higher and gold will rally further, ending the year at $2050. That would be just a 12% gain, and if you look again at Ronni's chart, that would be pretty close to the recent 15-year average. I may be low-balling it a little bit, but after the frustration of 2021, can you blame me?
I believe this was from his macrocast. The big surprise he couldn't know about at the time was the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent mini moon shot for gold that followed. TPTB have now corrected that for us and the rest seems to be aligning much the way he forecast. The question is will today's FOMC announcement start the ball rolling?
 

dpong

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Poor silver, can't catch a break.

[Acting like an industrial metal, so...]
 

Jodster

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The markets are highly irrational. Portfolio was down -2% this morning and then some grey-hair comes on and pukes doublespeak and I end the day +4%.
The fundamentals didn’t change; only the propaganda.
 

savvydon

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The markets are highly irrational. Portfolio was down -2% this morning and then some grey-hair comes on and pukes doublespeak and I end the day +4%.
The fundamentals didn’t change; only the propaganda.
The preceding 2 week beatdown in metals was just as irrational as today's reversal. Trade like a contrarian. Stack like a true believer. The rest is just noise.
 

dpong

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I gave up on fundamentals and valuations since 2020.

[The markets are highly irrational. And never forget it. ]
 

Lancers32

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I gave up on fundamentals and valuations since 2020.

[The markets are highly irrational. And never forget it. ]
I thought humans and their programs were rational.
 

dpong

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:2 thumbs up:
 

Jodster

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FAAACK! I can't decide if today is a dip I should buy, or the beginning of the massive cratering I expected all along ...
 

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They really are walking Silver down today. Couldn't have the metals up when the stock market is crashing.

1651765044298.png
 

Jodster

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I was thinking of buying the volatility yesterday. Shoulda, coulda, woulda . .
volatility.png
 

Oldmansmith

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Well I won’t three times short SPY yesterday. Made a good profit but sold WAY too early. This thing keeps dumping.
 

Jodster

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Well I won’t three times short SPY yesterday. Made a good profit but sold WAY too early. This thing keeps dumping.
This dump isn't surprising; yesterday's rally was! I should have stopped out on a lot of shit. It was too good to be true :p
 

dpong

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Voodoo

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Stopped by the LCS.... CLosed. Well that's one way not to have to sell at these stupid prices. Lol
 

Lancers32

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Microstrategy margin call?

Who knows what to believe anymore but I heard this guy has been selling. His record is not great. A little shady.
 

Jodster

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Almost an hour but worth the listen. Technicals on the stock market and how dollar/Inflation/Fed will affect it.