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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Of course Mr. Gold taught us that support works by pretending to fail. So this could be it, too. The bottom.
Now you are thinking too much but I am getting the same feeling.
 

Jodster

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There you go again.

Jesus Lancers, first you pull the rug out from under me and then taunt me with $240 silver. Then more doom and gloom...
If I ever meet you in person, first round is on me then I’m gonna crack that bottle over your head, :p
(Love ya man)
But seriously who’s thinking up from here, and who’s thinking crash?
I’ve been buying this dip with a combo of gold and silver ETF’s and some select uranium picks. Actually ended the day flat.
Went from 2/3 cash last week to 1/3 cash.
Now I get the “don’t catch a falling knife” adage.
 

Jodster

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Any interest in UEC? Just a couple of cents below 50% of the highest selling price $6.60 closed a bit above. If this area does not hold I expect the mid 2's. No guts no glory.
Rick Rule thinks we are in the 6th inning maybe the game got rained out. Probably low enough to start a position. Could go south in a hurry from here but I would rather pay sub 4 than over 6. Just me.
I feel HURA and URNM are a safer bet. Picking uranium miners is like picking the hot chick at the bar that doesn’t have chlamydia. Seems worth the risk but you’ll pay down the road.
 

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What do you guys think??

Screen Shot 2022-05-10 at 9.31.52 PM.png
 

EchelonPL

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I taunt you and call your $240 and raise you to $600+.

This *feels eerily like 2008-2009. I can’t quite explain it. Bix says high inflation Numbers tomorrow/Wednesday and that will Induce some fed people to raise rates. And raise rates they will to battle inflation but ironically the rates game will be to keep them low because the system needs more liquidity not less. I suppose we’ll find out tomorrow. I put money in FAZ as a disclaimer.

 

Lancers32

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I feel HURA and URNM are a safer bet. Picking uranium miners is like picking the hot chick at the bar that doesn’t have chlamydia. Seems worth the risk but you’ll pay down the road.
SRUUF if you want some protection. How low can that go?:bomb:
 

Lancers32

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Gold's "breakout" is so far still intact. I would love to see it tag the 200-DMA at 1835, then start a nice rally. Below the 1835-1825 area, and we've got some problems.
I would like to see a reversal candlestick in GDX/GDXJ to mark the low, but we don't always get one.
Still holding some puts for protection, but the juniors are getting pummeled today.

In other notes, the USD has stalled at just below 104, but it hasn't reversed lower yet. Still waiting for a sign...

View attachment 258492
So far so good.


FSeis-jXoAAmKzM.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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There you go again.

Just now watched this. No disrespect to Oliver but this analysis is sophomoric at best. Not convinced and not buying yet. Could be a bunch more downside to come after a rally.
 

Lancers32

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Long Bitcoin? Could be worse you could be long MARA or RIOT.
 

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Okay so what's the big moves looking forward?
Money printing has wrecked the economy but the dollar is gaining in strength.
Gold has been a preservation of wealth, but the metals and their stocks, are cratering harder than a Biden Poll.
The green new deal is going to to save the planet but Lithium stonks are cratering.

So basically I'm going to sell it all and invest in Meme stocks, Bitcoin and government debt. It seems to be the only things that follow a rational plan because irrationality is predictable, at least.
 

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dpong

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OK, so starting at the high in August 2000, (in your retirement accounts) you take a 45% haircut into July 2002, and then wait 7 years to get back to even on the price in September 2007.

Only to then experience a greater than 50% haircut AGAIN!!

[Not for me, no thank-you.]

[Was on the phone with a former colleague today who said he looked at his retirement account and almost wanted to cry. Then he changed it and said no I DID want to cry. Do you think he has a plan? I do...]

[He plans to cry.]

SPX_2022-05-11_16-47-22.png
 
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dpong

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After that second crash you would not get back up to previous level until 2013. So for 13 years you went nowhere.

[THIRTEEN YEARS, MAN!]

[Another coworker says he has a plan. He just won't look.]
 

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Thinking about buying the next big dump in SPY. Not all in, maybe 5 or 10 percent of my cash.
 

gnome

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After that second crash you would not get back up to previous level until 2013. So for 13 years you went nowhere.

[THIRTEEN YEARS, MAN!]

[Another coworker says he has a plan. He just won't look.]
Could be worse...silver.

Screen Shot 2022-05-11 at 5.16.57 PM.png
 

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OK, so starting at the high in August 2000, (in your retirement accounts) you take a 45% haircut into July 2002, and then wait 7 years to get back to even on the price in September 2007.

Only to then experience a greater than 50% haircut AGAIN!!

[Not for me, no thank-you.]

[Was on the phone with a former colleague today who said he looked at his retirement account and almost wanted to cry. Then he changed it and said no I DID want to cry. Do you think he has a plan? I do...]

[He plans to cry.]

View attachment 258664
Nice Dpong.
Is your system basically using the 20-month moving average on the monthly chart? Buy/sell on a closing basis?
 

Lancers32

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Anyone ever hear of John Jamieson? Not his chart but his ultimate targets for BTC range from 13K-20K. Quite a range but that is quite a ways down from here. Not in a straight line of course.


FSg2hzpacAABd_W.jpg
 

dpong

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Nice Dpong.
Is your system basically using the 20-month moving average on the monthly chart? Buy/sell on a closing basis?
Yes exactly! So easy.
 

Voodoo

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Where does that $130 in 1980 coming from?

Probably inflation adjusted.

Things are getting spicy in the markets. Big things are stiring and breaking me thinks. Get ready.
 

dpong

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Nice Dpong.
Is your system basically using the 20-month moving average on the monthly chart? Buy/sell on a closing basis?
In case you missed it, the April close violated the 20 month moving average and so I am out and sitting in cash.

I will buy back in when a month closes above the 20 month moving average.

SPX_2022-05-12_08-31-31.png
 

Lancers32

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Probably inflation adjusted.

Things are getting spicy in the markets. Big things are stiring and breaking me thinks. Get ready.
Probably but the charts adjust for inflation and everything else. If someone tells you inflation adjusted this asset or that asset should be trading at this price or that price run the other way. They are clueless.
 

Jodster

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In case you missed it, the April close violated the 20 month moving average and so I am out and sitting in cash.

I will buy back in when a month closes above the 20 month moving average.

View attachment 258736
Man if I sell now, I’m taking quite the haircut. Hoping for one last rally, then cash out.
I think we all know the Big One is coming.
Might set some stop losses today.
As a side note, tomorrow is Friday the 13th. The Cabal is apparently into numerology and symbology.
Friday the 13th was the day the kind of France and the Vatican conspired against Jacques De Molay, leader of the Knights Templar.
Since then it had been a symbol of “bad luck” for Christian’s but good luck for the Cabal. I would expect a strong finish to the week.
 

Lancers32

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Everything rallies the question is from where? Stocks that were trading at 10 bucks or so not that long ago were trading under a buck 2 years ago. Hopefully the % you have invested at this point is a small number compared to your total stack.
 

Jodster

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Everything rallies the question is from where? Stocks that were trading at 10 bucks or so not that long ago were trading under a buck 2 years ago. Hopefully the % you have invested at this point is a small number compared to your total stack.
I guess that's the point of capitulation; shake everybody out.
I think I will stay the course Lancers. I would have a hard time finding suitable re-entry points and could very will miss any "rallies" that happen.
I held our gold positions when they were under water from 2013 to 2019, so I can be stubborn.
At this point I'm 2/3 stock and 1/3 cash and just very well might keep buying on the way down.
isn't there a saying from Buffet that says buy when the market is fearful?
 

Lancers32

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I guess that's the point of capitulation; shake everybody out.
I think I will stay the course Lancers. I would have a hard time finding suitable re-entry points and could very will miss any "rallies" that happen.
I held our gold positions when they were under water from 2013 to 2019, so I can be stubborn.
At this point I'm 2/3 stock and 1/3 cash and just very well might keep buying on the way down.
isn't there a saying from Buffet that says buy when the market is fearful?
2/3 long? Yikes. To paraphrase Kipling if you can keep your head when others about you are losing theirs you haven't read the news.
 

dpong

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I think the generally accepted trading wisdom is that if one is unwilling to take a small loss, then one will take a large one.

[Said with kindness and good will.]

[Ah, also my slow-trade retirement system is very specifically for retirement accounts that have very limited options in which to invest. I mean they have a large cap fund, and some other stuff but not much. So my game here is either IN or OUT. I don't have much choice. My system doesn't necessarily apply to general markets or ability to trade other things, like PM stocks. It's for those of us who have some funds where there are limited options.]
 

Jodster

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Well you can all laugh at me as I suck my own dick :p
Down 6% today but still up 10% from a year ago. I fail to believe that we have seen the peaks in the stocks I hold.
It very well may be suicidal to ride this ship to the bottom, but I can be a good metric of what not to do.
My 1 year portfolio; the roller coaster of life.
picked up some more stink bids in REMX, URNM and GDXU this morning F Joe Biden and F the phony USD!
Screenshot 2022-05-12 at 09-56-28 Trading.png
 

Lancers32

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I think the generally accepted trading wisdom is that if one is unwilling to take a small loss, then one will take a large one.

[Said with kindness and good will.]

[Ah, also my slow-trade retirement system is very specifically for retirement accounts that have very limited options in which to invest. I mean they have a large cap fund, and some other stuff but not much. So my game here is either IN or OUT. I don't have much choice. My system doesn't necessarily apply to general markets or ability to trade other things, like PM stocks. It's for those of us who have some funds where there are limited options.]
Yeah the first loss is the best loss.
 

Lancers32

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