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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Get out of line the man come and turn your car off. Some still refuse to see.


 

dpong

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Money is moving into bonds and the Dollar has broken higher. Feels like safety trade. Keep it up, eventually we get "deflation scare" by which I mean liquidity crunch.

DXY_2022-05-12_10-32-34.png
 

Lancers32

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40 billion but you gotta sign it before you get to know what's in it. Where have I heard that before. We are done.
 

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Wheaton negated its breakout. Doesn't look good!
Everyone said the metals would hold up during a bear market in general equities. What a bunch of crock.


WPM.png
 

Jodster

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Wheaton negated its breakout. Doesn't look good!
Everyone said the metals would hold up during a bear market in general equities. What a bunch of crock.


View attachment 258785
That's one side of it Jelly, the other side is my financial suicide strategy. Buying on the way down. LOTS of stocks on a multi-year sale.
If you're not too focused on the absolute bottom, you are looking at exceptional discounts.
Nothing ever works out for me, so if I try to crash my account on purpose, it will probably take off like a r**ket. :p
Picked up some Uranium warrants today at a 16% discount.
 

jelly

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Who said that Jelly?
Many of the gold commentators. Most were saying we are entering a period in comparison to the 1970's where gold moved opposite the general markets. You know...high inflation so why hold stocks? move to inflation assets like gold, oil, & commodities. That was the general thesis.

What we're actually seeing is like 2008 and 2020. Flight to Liquidity
 
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jelly

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US dollar firm breakout above 104. Gold breaking down below 200-dma at 1835. At this point, the most you can hope for is a relief rally in the metlas to sell into before it goes down more.
 

dpong

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Many of the gold commentators. Most were saying we are entering a period in comparison to the 1970's where gold moved opposite the general markets. You know...high inflation so why hold stocks? move to inflation assets like gold, oil, & commodities. That was the general thesis.

What we're actually seeing is like 2008 and 2020. Flight to Liquidity
I think that's an error that Oliver makes repeatedly, too. Was satisfied to sit through the 2020 beat-down. Noted that it didn't last long.

[OK, but I could have bought twice the stuff!]
 

Voodoo

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US dollar firm breakout above 104. Gold breaking down below 200-dma at 1835. At this point, the most you can hope for is a relief rally in the metlas to sell into before it goes down more.

No... I'm not selling any metals. Forget that shit unless you are a short-term trader with huge leverage or margin. Buy, Buy, Buy.
 

dpong

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Lancers32

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No... I'm not selling any metals. Forget that shit unless you are a short-term trader with huge leverage or margin. Buy, Buy, Buy.
I wouldn't sell real metal but I would watch watch watch cause we might just be getting started. Silver took out a triple bottom at $21.50. Seen enough bad markets to learn to have a little patience. Today's low is tomorrow's high.
 

dpong

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No not selling real metal. Sold all stocks.

[Except 2 that WTT is holding. At least 1 of those will sell on Monday.]

[There could be a helluva good buy opportunity if this gets up a lather. If you bought the bounce off 2020 bottom you were in great shape. It could happen. Not predicting. But watch watch watch is good advice.]
 

dpong

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jelly

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A little buying at the end of the day, but so far no sign of reversal in the metals/miners. Gold closed below the 200-DMA, and the USD broke out above $104. By all appearances it looks like metals have more downside to go yet. I sincerely hope we turn around soon though.

Volatilility today in the general stock market, with buying at the end of the day. Good sign, but not necessarily a reversal. USD breaking out, so in effect this is still a flight to safety/liquidity regardless of bounces in the markets.
 

Lancers32

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I would welcome a move back to the covid lows. Bounces here and there but I don't like the looks of things at all.
 

Lancers32

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Who quits a job before they have a new one lined up?



 

Lancers32

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36 year old Finnish Prime and I do mean Prime Minister wants to join NATO. Why not just keep poking the Bear?


2022-01-19T192216Z_1_LYNXMPEI0I0Y1_RTROPTP_4_FINLAND-SECURITY-MARIN-scaled.jpg
 

Jodster

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A little buying at the end of the day, but so far no sign of reversal in the metals/miners. Gold closed below the 200-DMA, and the USD broke out above $104. By all appearances it looks like metals have more downside to go yet. I sincerely hope we turn around soon though.

Volatilility today in the general stock market, with buying at the end of the day. Good sign, but not necessarily a reversal. USD breaking out, so in effect this is still a flight to safety/liquidity regardless of bounces in the markets.
When did the dollar become the preferred inflation hedge and flight to safety over gold?
I sometimes feel like I’m living in a parallel universe where up is down and left is right.
Logic has fled our society on a grand scale.
 

dpong

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Logic? In the markets?

Goofy as it is the dollar is the go to in a liquidity crisis. Kind of by definition.
 

Voodoo

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I wouldn't sell real metal but I would watch watch watch cause we might just be getting started. Silver took out a triple bottom at $21.50. Seen enough bad markets to learn to have a little patience. Today's low is tomorrow's high.

Silver at 30% off today.. Great Buy

Silver possibly 50% off next week... Fanfreaking tastic BUY BUY

And if it goes lower i will move ALL IN.

The key is just don't jump all in at once.
 

gnome

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Tbonz

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36 year old Finnish Prime and I do mean Prime Minister wants to join NATO. Why not just keep poking the Bear?


View attachment 258833
Absolute rock star, much like the governor of the state to the west. Gov. Noem has a lot going for her, but I would say the Finish PM would be awesome to party with for a long long weekend.
 

gnome

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Margin debt has been deleveraging since late 2021, I suspect steeper declines in April (which will be reported next week) and May. Guessing we are back at pre-pandemic levels of margin debt already.

Screen Shot 2022-05-12 at 9.56.49 PM.png
 

bemac

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When did the dollar become the preferred inflation hedge and flight to safety over gold?
I sometimes feel like I’m living in a parallel universe where up is down and left is right.
Logic has fled our society on a grand scale.

The fear isn't inflation anymore, inflation is what was feared and what is happening now. Deflation is now the fear and what will be happening next.
 

Jodster

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Silver at 30% off today.. Great Buy

Silver possibly 50% off next week... Fanfreaking tastic BUY BUY

And if it goes lower i will move ALL IN.

The key is just don't jump all in at once.
You might as well buy today. The premiums will increase to keep pace, or suppliers will “sell out” like First Majestic frequently does.
I don’t care if spot goes to $9.00, you wouldn’t be able to get physical for under $25.00
Spot is only a tool to deleverage paper, and to some extent the stocks, funds and miners.
 

Lancers32

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Silver at 30% off today.. Great Buy

Silver possibly 50% off next week... Fanfreaking tastic BUY BUY

And if it goes lower i will move ALL IN.

The key is just don't jump all in at once.
I think in the long run you might be better off with Gold but that is just my opinion. Buying on these dips now guarantees you will be out of cash when the market finally does bottom.
 

Voodoo

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I think in the long run you might be better off with Gold but that is just my opinion. Buying on these dips now guarantees you will be out of cash when the market finally does bottom.

You're almost never going to buy the exact bottom. I do not buy breakouts well so the only way I get the position size I want is to Buy on the big fear days. You risk missing the entire move by waiting to know the bottom is in.
 

Jodster

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You're almost never going to buy the exact bottom. I do not buy breakouts well so the only way I get the position size I want is to Buy on the big fear days. You risk missing the entire move by waiting to know the bottom is in.
Yeah I'm guilty of buying too early. Usually I'm out of ammo by the half-retracements. :p
In all seriousness, I will nibble smaller positions on the way down, 10% here or there. When the velocity of the decline starts to ease or it just feels like a bottom, I then throw stink bids in at the end of the day, usually 20% of my final number. if it's at a fake bottom, then I still 40-50% to keep buying down.
For example, I now have 60% of what I want in URC.WT.VN as of yesterday. If it had continued down, then I still had dry powder. As it is, a few of the stocks I averaged down are now 20% up for the day. the strong rebound negates any losses I had averaging down.
It's technically sloppy but for a risky investor, it can be fulfilling.
quest2.png
 

Lancers32

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You're almost never going to buy the exact bottom. I do not buy breakouts well so the only way I get the position size I want is to Buy on the big fear days. You risk missing the entire move by waiting to know the bottom is in.
Are you buying physical Silver or SLV or PSLV or silver miners?
 

Lancers32

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Some of you guys follow this guy. Still not buying Uranium at this point supposedly.


 

Voodoo

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Are you buying physical Silver or SLV or PSLV or silver miners?

I bought some physical silver last friday and some meme stocks as well as miners. Was getting close to buying some miners yesterday and moved money but may buy those next week. Moving some big chunks in every week now it seems.

I did buy a bunch of a beaten up SPAC yesterday that reported pretty decent earnings. Spac's doing well today. I bought like 1500 of SPIR after earnings. Talk about a manipulated stock price. That one fits the bill.
 

Voodoo

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Yeah I'm guilty of buying too early. Usually I'm out of ammo by the half-retracements. :p
In all seriousness, I will nibble smaller positions on the way down, 10% here or there. When the velocity of the decline starts to ease or it just feels like a bottom, I then throw stink bids in at the end of the day, usually 20% of my final number. if it's at a fake bottom, then I still 40-50% to keep buying down.
For example, I now have 60% of what I want in URC.WT.VN as of yesterday. If it had continued down, then I still had dry powder. As it is, a few of the stocks I averaged down are now 20% up for the day. the strong rebound negates any losses I had averaging down.
It's technically sloppy but for a risky investor, it can be fulfilling.
View attachment 258934

The real problem is not buying a small dip in a bull market and having it turn into a bear market. If you buy bigger and bigger into a bear market than yea, that's a really good way to see BK (cough Cathy cough). So you Have to be right on the bigger picture. And that's usually where I excel. I do Not follow crowds what so ever and have almost no emotion so I can handle large short-term red numbers.

These manipulative sharp or just deflationary scares in some of these things are great buy opportunities.
 
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gnome

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crypto up, stocks up, oil up, but USD & metals down... oh well