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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Hard to take Fuzzwah seriously when you posted on the same message board with him way back. Smart guy though.


 

Lancers32

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Sometimes when they can't trade through a level they gap through it.
 

Lancers32

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Voodoo

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Here's a couple of older timers and a bit slow but I think both of these guys are pretty good. Calling for bonds to go down 70% and inflation to hit a higher high close to 20%.

 

Lancers32

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Here's a couple of older timers and a bit slow but I think both of these guys are pretty good. Calling for bonds to go down 70% and inflation to hit a higher high close to 20%.

Look at Shadow Stats.
 

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Lancers32

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FV3v3E1XEAEAjG0.jpg
 

Voodoo

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Look at Shadow Stats.

No I get it but he was looking at official numbers. Basically by making a higher high this means he sees it worse than 1978 highs. I think he mentioned back to 1918...?
 

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The inflation trade, where everyone was jumping into energy and grains seems to have died. Oil popped, grains are selling off despite a continued war. We could see more sustained downside in PM's if this keeps up. Giant sucking sound out there right now, with everyone selling everything.
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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Copper Fund.


CPER-1.png
 

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Man all I did was mention that I was looking at commodities and they all tanking now. LOL. It does make it easy to sit on the sidelines for now though. Shorting isn't an option for me right now as I haven't followed them long enough to make that decision.I don't think they are finished with this bull run. If the next inflation number is still high then I expect them to continue up. Maybe then I can get involved.
 

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Looking at the general markets, I want to say that this is a good area to buy. But with commodities crashing (yes, crashing), we could see the general markets take a dive as well in an all out panic
 

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If this continues, and the stock markets decide to dump as well, we could see the fed pivot sooner than people expect. In a matter of weeks
 

Cigarlover

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Isn't this what the fed wants? Let the air out of the bubbles.
 

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Within $5k of the all time lows in my portfolio. I been buying the dips. Almost seems like a shame to capitulate and sell off now.
Tip of the hat to you old fuckers that cashed out and sat on the sidelines.
I think I'll ride this out for a while. Seems to me the commodities will be so oversold, there has to be interest in them soon.
 
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dpong

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Joe couldn't find the enter key.
 

Voodoo

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I don't know but I don't see the rush to get involved here. GDX trading around 30 SILJ close to 10. Neither of these proxies are in a position of strength. Hopefully by the end of Summer we get a buy.

I LOVE buying things cheap, but I'm almost always early and things usually get even cheaper. Buy some more.

It's kinda a farce though when you watch a duck youtube guy make 50 grand today.

 

Voodoo

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Within $5k of the all time lows in my portfolio. I been buying the dips. Almost seems like a shame to capitulate and sell off now.
Tip of the hat to you old fuckers that cashed out and sat on the sidelines.
I think I'll ride this out for a while. Seems to me the commodities will be so oversold, there has to be interest in them soon.

Right around the 6 min mark is where most people are at around here.

 

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Uglytruth

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Putin Is Now Selling More Oil at Higher Prices Than Before Joe Biden's Embargo​

By Andrew Malcolm | Jun 13, 2022 8:00 AM ET
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20296301-a847-4156-b200-372a86280e35-860x475.jpg
(AP Photo/Fernando Llano, File)
Joe Biden’s much-heralded international embargo of Russian oil purchases has flopped.


Vladimir Putin is selling more oil to the world now than before his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine provoked Biden’s ineffective boycott.


Not only that, but because of the economic and political uncertainty surrounding the Russian’s “special operation” and the mixed response of other countries, the global price of oil has surged about 30 percent.

So, Putin is not only selling more oil because of his war. He’s also reaping much greater revenues at higher prices because of his war. Which provides far greater sums to finance the now prolonged fighting that Biden professes to oppose.

Before the war, Russia delivered to Europe, for instance, about half of its nearly eight million barrels per day production of crude and refined oil.

Even if Russia cut its production levels now, thanks to increased oil prices energy experts estimate its annual oil revenues to be about $180 billion a year, 45 percent larger than last year.

Russia has shifted its energy sales to Asia, especially ally China, to developing countries that cannot afford the luxury of political protests, and to India, which also needs the energy and has often played Russian relations off against Western attention, for instance, in arms purchases.

Notably, India has refrained from condemning Putin’s invasion at the United Nations and is reportedly enjoying a 30 percent discount on Russian oil.

We’ve written here of Biden’s chronic personal, policy, and political tardiness since taking office. Last fall, the U.S. president, relying on American intelligence, vociferously warned many times that Putin had decided to invade Ukraine.


The Russian leader seized Crimea during the previous Democrat administration when Biden was VP. But had delayed his invasion-troop buildup near Ukraine until two months after a more assertive, less predictable Trump left office.

Despite the long warning of an impending invasion, Biden did not get around to imposing economic sanctions until well after the February invasion launched. He’s still rolling them out with PR fanfares.

As has predictably occurred previously with Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, sanctions have no effect after the unsatisfactory behavior begins.

We’ll never know if a barrage of preemptive punishments by an assertive U.S. leader could have deterred the four-month-old war that has displaced five million Ukrainians, killed thousands on both sides, and destroyed Ukrainian cities.

Such are the lethal impacts of political decisions made by functionaries safely ensconced in distant places.

In the United States, meanwhile, under the foggy leadership of Biden, the price of gasoline has surged for average Americans who don’t ride in Secret Service SUVs.

The month Joe Biden was elected after firmly vowing to strangle U.S. reliance on fossil fuels, the national average gallon price was $2.10 based on the national energy independence constructed by Donald Trump.


By the time Biden took office two months later, it had jumped to $2.37. Biden halted new oil leases and canceled others while killing the Keystone XL pipeline, and then strangely endorsed Putin’s undersea NordStream 2 gas pipeline to Europe.

A year later on the eve of Russia’s invasion, Americans were paying $3.51 a gallon for gas.

Today the national average is passing $5.00, well on the way to the $7 per gallon price Biden suggested during the presidential campaign as his initial goal to stifle American reliance on oil and force acceptance of electric vehicles.

To give the appearance of responding to consumer outrage over gas prices, as crucial midterm elections loom, Biden authorized daily draw-downs from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that Trump had filled to capacity through purchases at low prices. The SPR was designed for true global energy emergencies, not election year expediency.

Of course, Biden’s photo-op gimmick did nothing to affect prices. But he is reducing the nation’s energy safety net by one million barrels a day. That’s about 42 million liquid gallons every 24 hours.

European Union members say they will end imports of Russian oil by year’s end in “orderly fashion,” a calculated calendar cushion full of hope the war ends by then, one way or another.


Biden, who has pronounced Saudi Arabia a “pariah” nation, will travel there next month to beg for increased Saudi oil production that Biden has curtailed at home. Arabs are meticulously courteous to guests, but their inner thoughts over such a self-serving appeal would be interesting.

The global price of oil has jumped from $92 a barrel just before the invasion to $122 a barrel at the end of last week.

It is not terribly difficult for those of us pumping a $90 or $100 tank of gas to calculate the lack of interest Saudis would politely have in boosting production to slash their own oil revenues and help the autumn political prospects of a feeble U.S. leader who called them names during the last election.
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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I LOVE buying things cheap, but I'm almost always early and things usually get even cheaper. Buy some more.

It's kinda a farce though when you watch a duck youtube guy make 50 grand today.


I would rather buy cheap myself but cheap can get much cheaper. Ya really never know.
 

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My sister-in-law thinks the economic decline is cyclical and will rebound as it always has every 7 to 8 years.

I'm thinking it's not going to be a 'normal' business cycle because of the 'predicted' food shortages (destruction of food processing plants) and other unusual events mysteriously occurring for no apparent reason.

In fact, it might be a lasting depression designed to cripple the nation because hungry people don't pay attention to their rights being taken away just as they were in the 1930's when gold was confiscated by the government.