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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Uglytruth

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Is that way your tag line is always wrong? :laughing: :winks2:
 

Voodoo

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dpong

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It stopped out. I now no longer hold that stock. Watch and see what happens :p
Congratulations on respecting your stops!

[That's very important!]
 

dpong

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June is over. S&P 500 is -8.39% for June.

SPX_2022-06-30_16-11-15.png
 

dpong

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jelly

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picking up some long-dated GDX call options here. Who knows how the next couple months play out, so It will pay to have time on your hands.
 

Lancers32

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New York closed Monday.
 

Lancers32

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Biden says Americans need to stomach high oil prices for as long as it takes. So in other words I'm going after Bad Man Putin even if it kills you.
 

Lancers32

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picking up some long-dated GDX call options here. Who knows how the next couple months play out, so It will pay to have time on your hands.
Even the most ardent bulls have given up hope and are starting to look much lower.
 

Lancers32

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Shares are up.
 

dpong

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The EVERYTHING bubble has sprung a leak.
 

Lancers32

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This poster looks for a major low 4/2023. Hard to believe it would take that long but I have seen quite a few surprises. Bounces along the way of course. Most are looking for a good bottom maybe final low September or even December of this year. I have no fcking idea.

FWlgOajWIAIng9Y.png
 

Cigarlover

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I was looking at charts of everything on my watch lists. I cant find anything I like. Some short opportunities maybe. Even commodities look weak. Cash will continue to sit on the sidelines. Can silver see the 15's again?
 

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Commodities are THE buy here in the next few xxx (weeks, months I don't know). Farmers are planting less and will harvest less due to fuel prices.
 

Uglytruth

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Voodoo

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WOW an honest poster!



NW Ohio is dry. Corn yields should be weak.

Corn looks pretty good here in Iowa. I'm not seeing many beans, may just not have grown much yet. Didn't help my in-laws as they got at least half my wife's grandparents farm foreclosed on. Planted and then got an eviction. Oops.
 

Voodoo

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Cigarlover

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Commodities are THE buy here in the next few xxx (weeks, months I don't know). Farmers are planting less and will harvest less due to fuel prices.
I am watching closely looking for a bottom.
 

dpong

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Goldhedge

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Lancers32

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This can't be real. We all know of course it is all Putin's fault.


 

Lancers32

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More volume today and it might have been fairly impressive. U's and some of the miners. Keeping an open mind. UEC and CCJ did not make new lows for the move this week others did.
 

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Interesting discussion on how the push to get everyone's life savings 'into' the market before the next crash.

The big 161 extension of March 2020​

The triggering of the most reliable crash indicator I know of.​


HoleyProfit
May 31

When you look at historic crashes, you’ll find an amazing of amount of them have tops that first dummy crash somewhere in the 20 - 30% range, make a big spike high that ends somewhere in the 161 - 220 fib range and then starts to very clearly crash upon the next big breaking of the 161 fibs.

I’ve got examples, and we’ll get to that. Firstly I want to say as someone who’s both incorrectly and correctly shorted into where I believed a mega trend was ending, I’ve become cautious of this move to the point of paranoid. I’ve learned whenever I’m in a great short up 20 - 30% I want to think about risk of being squeezed.

The posting history here looks flawless bear. Showed up in late December with a forecast of a big high coming in indices. Added some conditions for a legit break being made when we were down a bit, and went into a flurry of activity recently as I think the break may have already been made and we’re just grabbing liquidity.

This is set up just to track the bear thesis. If you follow me elsewhere you’ll know I’ve spoken extensively with detailed trade plans about the short squeeze risk. A parabolic new high. I’ve been long multiple times over the last months. Been a lot of good trades long. Just none of them have produced follow through at this time.

I’m saying this because I think the 161 signal is compelling. Something that I think makes a really strong case for a big crash being imminent. I want to make sure people understand while I am fully positioned for this right now, I have a lot of bullish contingency plans. If this signal fails - faces shall be ripped.

Bear Stuff​

I looked at a lot of crashes. It started with the currency markets doing research for what I thought would be a mega trade setting up in Sterling due to the Brexit event in 2015. This produced a 30% overnight move (Which is INSANE for a currency pair). The models I had from a previous GBP crash worked incredibly well.

After the 30% move I became fascinated with two big GBPJPY crashes and how they seemed to have a lot of match up in the ratios of the swings. I was studying this thinking another big Sterling crash was coming after the Brexit one. This never came, but it was never invalidated, I still wait.

It was in these GBPJPY crashes I noticed the 161 topping swings for the first time.



I was just a Forex trader at this point. Some time later I had a look at the SPX chart and noticed the 2000 - 2008 moves were quite similar to the GBPJPY chart (Which I’d studied for 100s of hours and to this day have a snap-shot image in my head of). Noticed a lot of things about this, but here’s the 161s.




This was when I became super interested in studying SPX crashes. I could see that if I’d been watching the SPX move setting up in 2008 with all the things I felt like I “Knew” from the GBPJPY study, I’d have gotten some trades! Not only shorting highs but generating great target and re-entry levels.

I knew it would probably be inevitable there was another big market crash in my life and I became determined to know how to understand when I was seeing one, how to short high in it and how to target efficiently. So I started looking at lots of big asset crashes.

Starting with DJI, 1929 - here was the 161 top.



more:
 
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Lancers32

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Watched the first two minutes. First of all you can't say buying 19-20 is a good bet because there is only 2 bucks down side risk. Nobody knows that. Silver is a good investment because the govt can't repay its debt? That was evident and obvious 40 years ago.
 

Voodoo

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Watched the first two minutes. First of all you can't say buying 19-20 is a good bet because there is only 2 bucks down side risk. Nobody knows that. Silver is a good investment because the govt can't repay its debt? That was evident and obvious 40 years ago.

I'd put lots of money on that as well. We are not going below $17 at absolute worst. But even if we do so what? It will be very short lived and not very actionable. Get ounces now and the price is not relevant.
 

Lancers32

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Again there is no way to know that. $17? Maybe no one knows you think you know for sure is when you get your ass handed to you.
 

BeefJerky

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At some point you have to jump. Or you're just watching the tide come in and out. I'm betting this is the fake out before the break out.
 

Uglytruth

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None available last time it touched $14 & more looking for life boats this time....... none will be available & if it is it will have a huge premium.
 

Cigarlover

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None available last time it touched $14 & more looking for life boats this time....... none will be available & if it is it will have a huge premium.
Jump into the futures market. All you can eat. 1 point move = 5000 unless your trading mini's
 

Cigarlover

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I was thinking 17 ,night be th new lows for now but when it does decide to break out we will get that quick dump down to the 15's to take out all the stops, and then she runs. And when I say runs I mean run like an olympic 100 meter runner runs, not like Hillary with the cabbage runs
 

coopersmith

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I was thinking 17 ,night be th new lows for now but when it does decide to break out we will get that quick dump down to the 15's to take out all the stops, and then she runs. And when I say runs I mean run like an olympic 100 meter runner runs, not like Hillary with the cabbage runs
God I hope so, the stuff is heavy. Id trade it for gold and put all my stuffs in a little sack.

silber.

feck man.........
 

Uglytruth

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I was thinking 17 ,night be th new lows for now but when it does decide to break out we will get that quick dump down to the 15's to take out all the stops, and then she runs. And when I say runs I mean run like an olympic 100 meter runner runs, not like Hillary with the cabbage runs
Talk about painting an ugly picture!
1656812989480.png
 

Lancers32

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I'd put lots of money on that as well. We are not going below $17 at absolute worst. But even if we do so what? It will be very short lived and not very actionable. Get ounces now and the price is not relevant.
Price is not what? There is no guarantee Silver will ever exceed the 1980 high.
 

Lancers32

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At some point you have to jump. Or you're just watching the tide come in and out. I'm betting this is the fake out before the break out.
I guess you are talking about Silver? No I don't have to jump there are a lot of other things to gamble on. Everyone thinks they know the game plan. Big break down under 20 bucks then off to $500 or some bs like that. Until it has it hasn't. We might have bottomed Friday nobody knows but they sure as hell can't say with any certainty that there is only 2 bucks downside from 19.