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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Tbonz

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Crude is under a hundred, what gives?
China, Europe and in part the United States are facing potential slow downs in their economies, inflation (hyper-inflation)/deflation and a collapse in their financial systems, that would be my guess as to why oil is dropping.
 

Barrettone

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I figure I've done all I can at this point. Overloading in any category at this point (PMs, food, cash, land, stonks, annuities, other preps) is just going to be pure speculation. My family can make it for like 2-3 years right now. That's gonna have to be enough to get me to the next "thing" whatever the hell that is. You just have to become productive and stretch things out and not just live off reserves. If the world becomes that bad, is it really worth living in at that point just to say you're "surviving"? That's not living IMO. I'm surrounded by a fairly large group of like-minded people who know how to get by and readily put everything into practice. That's just gonna have to be good enough. I'm done obsessing about this train wreck. My heads not in the sand, but I'm gonna live dammit. YMMV
 

Lancers32

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I swear this is my last line in the sand. :belly laugh:


FW_mHmCX0AAqL72.jpg




 

Uglytruth

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Recession Barometer Copper Continues Its Sharp Sell Off​

By Bryan Jung

July 6, 2022 Updated: July 6, 2022
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Copper on July 6 plunged below $7,500 a ton, as increasing fears of a global recession hit the industrial metals market, lowering prices from its record highs a months ago.
The price of copper has dropped by 7.1 percent week over week, according to a Twitter post from Hedgeye, an online investment research and financial media company.
Copper fell by as much as 4.9 percent to $7,291.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange (LMEX)—its lowest level since November 2020 after recovering to $7,552 a ton by 12:43 p.m. BST.
The mineral had already been hit by a 4.2 percent slump yesterday going below $8,000 a ton, reaching its lowest close in 19 months.
Meanwhile, aluminum lost 0.7 percent in value, while nickel was down 2.2 percent, and lead climbed 1.9 percent.
This is major turn from March, when the LMEX Index of six strategic metals rose to an all-time high after the Russian invasion of Ukraine sparked fears of global fuel and commodities shortages.
This last quarter witnessed the worse results for metals since the 2008 Great Recession, with the current month bringing little relief, as the risk of a recession dominates market sentiment.
Investors are worried over shake ups in the supply chain, such as the Russian sanctions-induced fuel crisis in Europe, a faltering American economy, and severe central government-induced lockdowns in Mainland China.
Companies hoped that China would be a major source for demand for commodities, after the CCP had promised to restart growth in the second half of 2022.
Meanwhile in America, there are also increasing concerns over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive and delayed interest rate policy, which may instigate a severe and sustained downturn, while trying to tame rising inflation.
The central bank’s attempt to curb demand is already beginning to curb U.S. economic growth.
The meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC conference on June 14 came out this morning, suggesting another 50 or 75 basis point move in July.
“In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives,” the minutes stated.
“In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting.”
“Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth for a time, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis,” the board members admitted.
Analysts are now shifting their focus from inflation to whether and when a U.S. recession will hit, with the chances of an economic contraction now standing at 38 percent, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Falling commodity prices are a key sign that there will likely be a recession in the United States this year, according to Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners to CNBC on July 5.
He believes that a recession is likely to happen this year, rather than in early 2023, as others have suggested.
“It’s obvious to us that the recession conversation shouldn’t be about one in 2023,” Terranova said. “It should be about one in 2022—if we’re not already in one right now.”
Investors should keep an eye on oil, copper, lumber, agriculture, and soft commodity prices, he said, noting that they are a potential harbinger of recession, as a major drop would signal deflationary pricing.
Before every recession in the past three decades, falling copper prices have been a sign of a pending economic crisis.
“The calendar has turned into July, and the market isn’t pricing based on inflation, it’s pricing based on an expected recession,” Terranova said.
Oil prices fell in June, after topping $120 a barrel in March and April, with Brent crude dropping 13 percent at $104 a barrel today, while West Texas International crude fell 16 percent to hover just over $100 a barrel.
Lumber futures have been down at least 27 percent over the last three months, as rising housing costs and mortgage rates curb demand for building materials.
If rising inflation continues and an economic downturn hits, demand will take a severe fall.
Analysts anticipate investors rushing to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven during the period of market instability, adding further pressure.
 

jelly

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It's ironic that those who have been warning of years of stagflation for years to come are having their portfolios hit the hardest. 50% or more losses in many of the commodity stocks (including the supposed safe haven of gold miners) vs 25% in the general markets. I thought it was suppose to be the other way around? Ha!
 

BeefJerky

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Clown World will have their reckoning.
 

Lancers32

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You do realize that is not a sentiment indicator? Not to say this is not a level to start to DCA if you are inclined.
 

Lancers32

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This would be nice to see.


FXAmN02WAAA4d81.jpg
 

jelly

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You do realize that is not a sentiment indicator? Not to say this is not a level to start to DCA if you are inclined.
If not a sentiment indicator, please enlighten us what it is then.
 

Lancers32

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Shows where they are relative to price it doesn't mean they can't trade much lower from here or trade much higher if the chart shows the reverse of what it currently is. It would be like using RSI alone to determine whether a stock had bottomed or topped.
 

Lancers32

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Tell you what. Take SILJ for example. If you said you can only make one trade buy or sell and not sell if you bought or buy if you sold for 5 years I would be buying here.
 

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Got my order in.... A couple more Kilo's heading my way..

:robber:
 

Lancers32

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Low volume but if the markets can hold through tomorrow's close we will get some weekly hammer candles. Any interest in Sandstorm Gold Royalty co.?
 

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Tell you what. Take SILJ for example. If you said you can only make one trade buy or sell and not sell if you bought or buy if you sold for 5 years I would be buying here.
REMX, URNM or SILX, in that order.
You getting the feeling this bottom is real, Lancers, or a head fake before further drops?
 

Lancers32

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REMX, URNM or SILX, in that order.
You getting the feeling this bottom is real, Lancers, or a head fake before further drops?

No clue.
 

Jodster

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Maybe it’s because I’m drunk but I think the major forces are going to bend the market like a junior prom boner, and capitulate the crap out of all investors. Then swing in and scoop up all the insolvent miners.
The Rothschild’s were masters of buying when there is blood in the streets, and we are not even at that stage yet.
Unfortunately I think it will get much worse and I’m tightening my stop limits and migrating to cash because of this.
 

jelly

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Shows where they are relative to price it doesn't mean they can't trade much lower from here or trade much higher if the chart shows the reverse of what it currently is. It would be like using RSI alone to determine whether a stock had bottomed or topped.
You're arguing that it's not a price indicator. Yes its a sentiment indicator, not a price indicator. Bullish % is a sentiment indicator, I don't know how you could ever see it differently. Just because sentiment is in the dumps doesn't mean price can't go lower, or that it won't stay low for years. But yes, sentiment is sentiment.
 

Lancers32

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No I am arguing it is a price indicator not a sentiment indicator. It indicates how many stocks are trading near their high or low values for a period of time which can continue to go up or down. All it does is measure overbought/oversold which like you said can continue on in that direction. OB OS by what metric? Readings can mean different things depending upon whether we are in a bull or bear market.
The DSI at least according to Moriarty over at 321 for Silver is 16 Gold 50.

If you are still holding it is probably too late to sell odds favor the long side but still risk. Not busting balls with that chart but don't think it is very good for timing though at times it will be right so would a coin flip.
 
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Lancers32

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Life is easier if you just Bitcoin. Michael Saylor.

Fcuking guy.
 

Voodoo

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I should have thrown in an ounce of Palladium and not Platinum on my order yesterday. But that would have been like 2.5x as expensive and less upside IMO. Pt and Pd are having a good day. Perhaps they are looking at "Stopping" Russian exports of these next.
 

Cigarlover

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Right now demand destruction is what's driving everything. Higher inflation and interest rates should create demand destruction which in turn lowers prices.
 

Lancers32

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$19 is support until it isn't.


FXKv6C4WYAADQCU.jpg
 

Voodoo

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$19 is support until it isn't.


View attachment 267013

It looks like fantastic support. It held for three days with gold down big one day. I loaded up my possible last buy.

Take the hint people, the clock is a ticking time bomb. Price is not relevant, time is short.

I just tried to do a transfer between my CU and my business bank and they shut it down and locked the account. Fearing fraud I suppose even though it was just one extra zero from my regular mortgage transfer.
 

Lancers32

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Support until it isn't. A lot of Ellioticians are looking for one more big drop in the Uraniums. I have no idea. This is the big one CCJ.


FXOg1DzVUAAyjsr.jpg
 

Lancers32

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Part of the Musk Tesla job application.

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Uglytruth

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Lancers32

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Lancers32

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viking

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Lancers32

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Revisit pre plandemic highs or done and dusted.


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Do we have to give back Alaska?
 

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It ain't puttin' it in that matters, it's when ya take it out...