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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Uglytruth

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Comex/LBMA system breaking. He states that Comex Silver market broke Wed July 6.
What can we do to help? Break for good it of course!
 

dpong

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Support becomes resistance [in the short run.]

SILVER_2022-07-18_12-43-56.png
 

Voodoo

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What can we do to help? Break for good it of course!

Do what we do best... Fill in perfectly good ponds with heavy unwanted crap.
 

Uglytruth

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Do what we do best... Fill in perfectly good ponds with heavy unwanted crap.
So that's why the sea level is rising! :rotf: :dduck: :winks2:
 

jelly

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Geez, let's just get this over with gold. Just dump to $1680 so we can be done with this.
A drop to 1680 followed by an immediate reversal back up above $1700 would be ideal for marking a low, IMO.
 

Cigarlover

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Nice bump in First Mining today. Cant find any news but I'll take the bump up. Still way underwater so I take any green I can get. :)

All of the commodities I am looking at are trading right at the top of their downward channel. Any break above the top of that channel on good volume and I may go in for some smaller positions. Definitely a wait and see approach here though as they could just as easily fall back to the bottom of the channel.
 

Au-myn

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Geez, let's just get this over with gold. Just dump to $1680 so we can be done with this.
That's also what I am thinking.

This 3 x 28 square reversal Point & Figure chart highlights a High Pole in lite red setting up a Bearish Signal formation sell signal at 1,876. Which takes us to the 1,860 support line.
G28.png
 

Uglytruth

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China Has Dumped Over $100 Billion Of US Treasuries In The Last 6 Months

The latest data of Treasury International Capital flows (from May) shows a 5th straight month of equity selling:

Long-term Treasurys: +99.864BN, vs -$1.153BN sold in April

Agencies +37.283BN, similar to the $36.714BN in April

Corporate bonds bought $4.462BN, down from $22.5BN in April

Equities sold $9.15BN, down from $7.04BN in April and the 5th consecutive month of stock sales by foreigners, longest stretch since late 2018!

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-has-dumped-over-100-billion-usts-last-6-months


1658192596366.png


1658192611938.png


1658192631303.png
 

Lancers32

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That's also what I am thinking.

This 3 x 28 square reversal Point & Figure chart highlights a High Pole in lite red setting up a Bearish Signal formation sell signal at 1,876. Which takes us to the 1,860 support line.
View attachment 267997
That area does not hold and you get a validation of much lower prices. 4 times same level would be weaker this time.
 

Cigarlover

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Nice bump in First Mining today. Cant find any news but I'll take the bump up. Still way underwater so I take any green I can get. :)

All of the commodities I am looking at are trading right at the top of their downward channel. Any break above the top of that channel on good volume and I may go in for some smaller positions. Definitely a wait and see approach here though as they could just as easily fall back to the bottom of the channel.
And not one of them broke above the channel today. All have pulled back.... The wait continues.
 

jelly

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Gold in Euros breaking down as expected. There is still selling pressure in gold accross the world right now. Gold may have bottomed in USD terms, but it's not going to start a real rally until we get through this broad selling.

gceu.png
 

dpong

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Bob says we're good to go in the metals space.

 

savvydon

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Bob says we're good to go in the metals space.

The last couple of days have been terrible. Despite the dollar being in free fall, gold and silver have done almost nothing. TPTB clearly still have a boot on the sector's throat. When that will come off, and what the initiating factor will be, is anyone's guess. I suspect that when the FED signals the need to loosen back up, that may do it, but really I have no idea...
 

Lancers32

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Jodster

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The last couple of days have been terrible. Despite the dollar being in free fall, gold and silver have done almost nothing. TPTB clearly still have a boot on the sector's throat. When that will come off, and what the initiating factor will be, is anyone's guess. I suspect that when the FED signals the need to loosen back up, that may do it, but really I have no idea...
There is no blood in the streets yet. I was young, dumb and full of . . . (bad stock picks).
Mr. Grumpy Lancers and the Ninja Investor DPong have taught me patience.

I am now at the point where I see the plot more clearly. I know nothing more than you do, but as long as the USD is the strongest in a basket of currencies, there is no blood in the streets.
When the global reserve currency is in it's death throes, and the Whales and Manipulators rush in to scoop up the jr. miners, then it will be "Go Time", and not a minute earlier.
There are 25 countries who are presently experiencing large scale civil unrest, but it hasn't happened at the home of the global reserve currency. I believe this will be a huge signpost.
 

Lancers32

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You can buy along support and if it fails kick 'em out. $1670 Gold goes then there is no telling WTF is really up but until and unless it goes it hasn't ya know? I wouldn't try to over think this. Look.
 

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There is no blood in the streets yet. I was young, dumb and full of . . . (bad stock picks).
Mr. Grumpy Lancers and the Ninja Investor DPong have taught me patience.

I am now at the point where I see the plot more clearly. I know nothing more than you do, but as long as the USD is the strongest in a basket of currencies, there is no blood in the streets.
When the global reserve currency is in it's death throes, and the Whales and Manipulators rush in to scoop up the jr. miners, then it will be "Go Time", and not a minute earlier.
There are 25 countries who are presently experiencing large scale civil unrest, but it hasn't happened at the home of the global reserve currency. I believe this will be a huge signpost.

Good luck but that approach is FAR, FAR riskier to me.
 

Lancers32

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Gives Jews a bad name. Imagine grifting for as long as he has and can only claim to own 3 homes and have less than 10 million in the banks. Fcking piker.


FYH_TDVXEAATXAn.png
 

dpong

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You can buy along support and if it fails kick 'em out. $1670 Gold goes then there is no telling WTF is really up but until and unless it goes it hasn't ya know? I wouldn't try to over think this. Look.
LOOK is good advice. SEE what is happening now. Understand we don't know what is going to happen next. But we can SEE what is happening NOW.

[Anyway that's what I try to do.]
 

Lancers32

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Best advice I ever got was look don't think.
 

dpong

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Lancelot will try to buy the bottom. That's fine and valid and with his stops he'll do fine.

Me, I prefer to see the bottom, not buy the bottom. I prefer to buy the newly formed trend off the bottom.

Both of these styles can work. The most important things are correct position sizing (not too much in 1 trade) and cash or position management, meaning have your stops and respect them. This third paragraph is the more important paragraph, IMHO.
 

dpong

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Good luck but that approach is FAR, FAR riskier to me.
I think it depends on if you are trading or stacking. When I'm on this thread I'm thinking about trading. I did my share of stacking and nothing I say about trading applies to that stack. I also don't trade my emergency food. It's out of scope.
 

Jodster

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I think it depends on if you are trading or stacking. When I'm on this thread I'm thinking about trading. I did my share of stacking and nothing I say about trading applies to that stack. I also don't trade my emergency food. It's out of scope.
And there it is, right there.
I suck at trading so in my particular case, I simply want to park my portfolio somewhere it can grow for retirement. Our financial advisor was ass so we decided to self-direct. So far we are at par, even with the recent crash. Some people like the trades. Some want to set it and forget it.
We all have different methods and risk tolerances
 

dpong

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Jodster, with those spreadsheets you looked like you were gunning to be a master trader. Seriously. But thanks for clarifying. What Lance and I discuss on this thread is the opposite of buy and hold.

Here is my monthly chart of my retirement slow-trade system. Here I set it, but I don't forget it:

[You don't have to trade it, but don't forget it.]

SPX_2022-07-20_17-09-27.png
 

Jodster

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Jodster, with those spreadsheets you looked like you were gunning to be a master trader. Seriously. But thanks for clarifying. What Lance and I discuss on this thread is the opposite of buy and hold.

Here is my monthly chart of my retirement slow-trade system. Here I set it, but I don't forget it:

[You don't have to trade it, but don't forget it.]

View attachment 268206
LOL. Thank you for the compliment. But I think I still have a lot to learn. The only thing me and brother VooDoo have mastered is buying high and selling low.
My Tagline below my avatar is from 2010 and it’s very accurate. :p
 

Jodster

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I also want to specifically recognize a certain piece of advice I heard and never forgot:
“Nobody ever went broke taking profit”.
Had it not been for this mantra, I most certainly would have been underwater in a bad way.
 

Lancers32

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All good unless it is not a bull market. This guy and the other one have not made good calls. We are approaching the 2 year anni from the highs in Gold and Silver and it is time for a turn. Or not. Use stops. The data that works in bulls does not apply to bears.


FYLjzZNXwAARKdS.jpg
 

Lancers32

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I also want to specifically recognize a certain piece of advice I heard and never forgot:
“Nobody ever went broke taking profit”.
Had it not been for this mantra, I most certainly would have been underwater in a bad way.
The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
 

Jodster

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The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
I blundered many of my initial stop-losses. When I finally figured out a method for taking profits, it served me very well; in some cases 40 or 50% profit. Since I only use small amounts, it was never much cause for celebration. But in the end I was playing with about $20k house money.
That allowed me to try riskier trades, most of which I lost on.
Now I'm a tad older and wiser, and at par from 2 years ago. As we try to navigate this unpredictable market, I may allow some stocks to breathe more and tighten up when I stop out.
In a few years more I hope to be giving advice instead of getting it . . . if I have anything left :p
 

Lancers32

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According to EW theory a new low invalidates the bull case.
 

dpong

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The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
I agree. The systems I'm using let your winners run and sell your losers. This makes all the difference.
 

Uglytruth

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Don't know what to make of this. Found online.

At 8:50 a.m. Tuesday, Money Flow Mel (@MelStone31) posted an image to Twitter indicating institutions traded a large block of Digital World Acquisition Corp NASDAQ:DWAC. The trader noted that dark pool activity rarely occurs on this stock. The Trade: On Tuesday, an institution traded 155,000 shares of Digital World at $29.65. The trade amounts to a $4.6-million bet on the special purpose acquisition company.
 

Cigarlover

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I think one of the issues we are seeing is this ESG shit. Not even sure what it stands for but apparently all these investment institutions have agreed not to invest in certain industries like mining and fossil fuel production. These greenies really are insane if they think everything is going to run on renewables in their lifetime. One example is that the mining industry needs a 30x output of all the major minerals in order to produce all this green shit. Where do you get a 30x output on mines without building new mines after you make new discoveries?
It takes years to make discoveries, years to get permits and years to build mines. Then by the time they get it all finished in 50-70 years it will be time to replace it all and load up our landfills with even more crap. In fact some of this stuff lasts 20 years.
 

Uglytruth

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all these investment institutions have agreed not to invest in certain industries like mining and fossil fuel production.

Maybe they were made an "offer they couldn't refuse" ........... kapisch!
 

Lancers32

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Small position in GDX here. I don't expect too much upside but you never can tell.