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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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David Morgan has to be right this time.


FYDwl8HUIAI_p9i.jpg
 

Jodster

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The last couple of days have been terrible. Despite the dollar being in free fall, gold and silver have done almost nothing. TPTB clearly still have a boot on the sector's throat. When that will come off, and what the initiating factor will be, is anyone's guess. I suspect that when the FED signals the need to loosen back up, that may do it, but really I have no idea...
There is no blood in the streets yet. I was young, dumb and full of . . . (bad stock picks).
Mr. Grumpy Lancers and the Ninja Investor DPong have taught me patience.

I am now at the point where I see the plot more clearly. I know nothing more than you do, but as long as the USD is the strongest in a basket of currencies, there is no blood in the streets.
When the global reserve currency is in it's death throes, and the Whales and Manipulators rush in to scoop up the jr. miners, then it will be "Go Time", and not a minute earlier.
There are 25 countries who are presently experiencing large scale civil unrest, but it hasn't happened at the home of the global reserve currency. I believe this will be a huge signpost.
 

Lancers32

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You can buy along support and if it fails kick 'em out. $1670 Gold goes then there is no telling WTF is really up but until and unless it goes it hasn't ya know? I wouldn't try to over think this. Look.
 

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There is no blood in the streets yet. I was young, dumb and full of . . . (bad stock picks).
Mr. Grumpy Lancers and the Ninja Investor DPong have taught me patience.

I am now at the point where I see the plot more clearly. I know nothing more than you do, but as long as the USD is the strongest in a basket of currencies, there is no blood in the streets.
When the global reserve currency is in it's death throes, and the Whales and Manipulators rush in to scoop up the jr. miners, then it will be "Go Time", and not a minute earlier.
There are 25 countries who are presently experiencing large scale civil unrest, but it hasn't happened at the home of the global reserve currency. I believe this will be a huge signpost.

Good luck but that approach is FAR, FAR riskier to me.
 

Lancers32

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Gives Jews a bad name. Imagine grifting for as long as he has and can only claim to own 3 homes and have less than 10 million in the banks. Fcking piker.


FYH_TDVXEAATXAn.png
 

dpong

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You can buy along support and if it fails kick 'em out. $1670 Gold goes then there is no telling WTF is really up but until and unless it goes it hasn't ya know? I wouldn't try to over think this. Look.
LOOK is good advice. SEE what is happening now. Understand we don't know what is going to happen next. But we can SEE what is happening NOW.

[Anyway that's what I try to do.]
 

Lancers32

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Best advice I ever got was look don't think.
 

dpong

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Lancelot will try to buy the bottom. That's fine and valid and with his stops he'll do fine.

Me, I prefer to see the bottom, not buy the bottom. I prefer to buy the newly formed trend off the bottom.

Both of these styles can work. The most important things are correct position sizing (not too much in 1 trade) and cash or position management, meaning have your stops and respect them. This third paragraph is the more important paragraph, IMHO.
 

dpong

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Good luck but that approach is FAR, FAR riskier to me.
I think it depends on if you are trading or stacking. When I'm on this thread I'm thinking about trading. I did my share of stacking and nothing I say about trading applies to that stack. I also don't trade my emergency food. It's out of scope.
 

Jodster

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I think it depends on if you are trading or stacking. When I'm on this thread I'm thinking about trading. I did my share of stacking and nothing I say about trading applies to that stack. I also don't trade my emergency food. It's out of scope.
And there it is, right there.
I suck at trading so in my particular case, I simply want to park my portfolio somewhere it can grow for retirement. Our financial advisor was ass so we decided to self-direct. So far we are at par, even with the recent crash. Some people like the trades. Some want to set it and forget it.
We all have different methods and risk tolerances
 

dpong

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Jodster, with those spreadsheets you looked like you were gunning to be a master trader. Seriously. But thanks for clarifying. What Lance and I discuss on this thread is the opposite of buy and hold.

Here is my monthly chart of my retirement slow-trade system. Here I set it, but I don't forget it:

[You don't have to trade it, but don't forget it.]

SPX_2022-07-20_17-09-27.png
 

Jodster

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Jodster, with those spreadsheets you looked like you were gunning to be a master trader. Seriously. But thanks for clarifying. What Lance and I discuss on this thread is the opposite of buy and hold.

Here is my monthly chart of my retirement slow-trade system. Here I set it, but I don't forget it:

[You don't have to trade it, but don't forget it.]

View attachment 268206
LOL. Thank you for the compliment. But I think I still have a lot to learn. The only thing me and brother VooDoo have mastered is buying high and selling low.
My Tagline below my avatar is from 2010 and it’s very accurate. :p
 

Jodster

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I also want to specifically recognize a certain piece of advice I heard and never forgot:
“Nobody ever went broke taking profit”.
Had it not been for this mantra, I most certainly would have been underwater in a bad way.
 

Lancers32

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All good unless it is not a bull market. This guy and the other one have not made good calls. We are approaching the 2 year anni from the highs in Gold and Silver and it is time for a turn. Or not. Use stops. The data that works in bulls does not apply to bears.


FYLjzZNXwAARKdS.jpg
 

Lancers32

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I also want to specifically recognize a certain piece of advice I heard and never forgot:
“Nobody ever went broke taking profit”.
Had it not been for this mantra, I most certainly would have been underwater in a bad way.
The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
 

Jodster

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The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
I blundered many of my initial stop-losses. When I finally figured out a method for taking profits, it served me very well; in some cases 40 or 50% profit. Since I only use small amounts, it was never much cause for celebration. But in the end I was playing with about $20k house money.
That allowed me to try riskier trades, most of which I lost on.
Now I'm a tad older and wiser, and at par from 2 years ago. As we try to navigate this unpredictable market, I may allow some stocks to breathe more and tighten up when I stop out.
In a few years more I hope to be giving advice instead of getting it . . . if I have anything left :p
 

Lancers32

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According to EW theory a new low invalidates the bull case.
 

dpong

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The problem with this is you cut your profits off by not letting it breathe and the tendency is to hold losers instead of stopping out.
I agree. The systems I'm using let your winners run and sell your losers. This makes all the difference.
 

Uglytruth

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Don't know what to make of this. Found online.

At 8:50 a.m. Tuesday, Money Flow Mel (@MelStone31) posted an image to Twitter indicating institutions traded a large block of Digital World Acquisition Corp NASDAQ:DWAC. The trader noted that dark pool activity rarely occurs on this stock. The Trade: On Tuesday, an institution traded 155,000 shares of Digital World at $29.65. The trade amounts to a $4.6-million bet on the special purpose acquisition company.
 

Cigarlover

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I think one of the issues we are seeing is this ESG shit. Not even sure what it stands for but apparently all these investment institutions have agreed not to invest in certain industries like mining and fossil fuel production. These greenies really are insane if they think everything is going to run on renewables in their lifetime. One example is that the mining industry needs a 30x output of all the major minerals in order to produce all this green shit. Where do you get a 30x output on mines without building new mines after you make new discoveries?
It takes years to make discoveries, years to get permits and years to build mines. Then by the time they get it all finished in 50-70 years it will be time to replace it all and load up our landfills with even more crap. In fact some of this stuff lasts 20 years.
 

Uglytruth

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all these investment institutions have agreed not to invest in certain industries like mining and fossil fuel production.

Maybe they were made an "offer they couldn't refuse" ........... kapisch!
 

Lancers32

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Small position in GDX here. I don't expect too much upside but you never can tell.
 

jelly

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Looking like we finally have our low in place in gold today. Only time will tell if it's THE low, but this is what we've been waiting for. Noone wants to touch the miners though.
Gold/USD - Nice bullish engulfing candle:
GoldUS.png

Gold in Euro's - Beautiful reversal candlestick.
gold-Euro.png


Gold in Aussie - Just as beautiful:
gold-Aussie.png
 

JayDubya

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Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.
 

Uglytruth

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Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.
DIdn's she make a big deal out of what Trump did with his holdings?
 

Lancers32

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Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.

Polyester pants on fire.
 

Jodster

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Looking like we finally have our low in place in gold today. Only time will tell if it's THE low, but this is what we've been waiting for. Noone wants to touch the miners though.
Gold/USD - Nice bullish engulfing candle:
View attachment 268274
Gold in Euro's - Beautiful reversal candlestick.
View attachment 268276

Gold in Aussie - Just as beautiful:
View attachment 268275
What’s your thoughts on when the miners stop hemorrhaging? Would we need a few days or weeks of solid support? Would like to enter SILJ and GDXJ wee little bit
 

Lancers32

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Most of the miners the vast majority bottomed last week ahead of Gold. Look at the charts. HL SILJ AUY a whole slew of them. GDX is the weakest of them all.
 

jelly

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What’s your thoughts on when the miners stop hemorrhaging? Would we need a few days or weeks of solid support? Would like to enter SILJ and GDXJ wee little bit
I've been buying NUGT the past couple days, and will buy a little more tomorrow. I'd like to see what happens after the Fed meeting before going heavy into that trade though.

Let's be blunt about the miners - everyone is scared to even touch them. There have been so many false bottoms and one day pops, where the floor fell out the next day, that noone wants to take a chance on these things. They have been left for dead.
Like Lancers has pointed out, most miners have already bottomed. But heavy buying hasn't entered yet to drive the prices higher.

My only concern is how fast the rebound will be. Sentiment is so bad that I'm leaning toward a very slow and volatile ride up instead of a V-shape recovery. I'd usually buy call options at a moment like this, but I'm leaning toward just using NUGT due to the chance we have a very slow recovery.
 

Jodster

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Yeah you and Lancers bring up what I’ve been thinking. By any means it looks like a double bottom was put in.
But knowing my luck, I would buy in and there would immediately be another 20% retracement.
After Christmas, $18 silver was “highly unlikely”. Now we sit and ponder $15 and think it’s unlikely.
Say what you will, I don’t think the slaughter is over.
But as Lancers chart above shows, we could have a 15-20% short term rebound.
However I think the slaughter in miners and commodities in general, has yet to happen.
While you guys are starting to DCA, the sting of trying to catch a falling knife feels very fresh to me.
 

Lancers32

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The market doesn't know if you are in or out.
 

Uglytruth

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Is buffett buying? He went in a while back. His style is to continue to buy if it's getting cheaper & he belives the miners are the place to be. He also has inside info on if it would be outlawed etc.......
 

Jodster

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Is buffett buying? He went in a while back. His style is to continue to buy if it's getting cheaper & he belives the miners are the place to be. He also has inside info on if it would be outlawed etc.......
If I was worth Billions I could keep DCA also. There’s quite a few memes that summarize how I continued to position in until I ran out of money. . . And the market wasn’t done with me yet.
I had no more dry powder 20% ago :p
 

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AU stock looks to be making a move. Will it last? Anyones guess. I look at newmont and still trading at a PE in the low 40's. seems like a larger haircut is in order for them. Other big names are also trading with higher pe's. Others are trading at a PE under 10. Those are the ones with a lower risk reward ratio IMO. AU with a pe of 9.5 and paying a 4.8% dividend right now seems like a good candidate.

For now I think I wait and just build up my cash position. Be ready to jump in when Powell reverses. I dont expect that to happen for at least a few months though. 1 more rate hike then see where inflation is.
 

jelly

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The volatility in the gold miners is such a pain.
Miners not trusting this rally in gold. Miners are not responding well to this bounce. They should be up 5% if they trusted this.
 

jelly

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Many of the silver miners are in formation on their hourly charts.
First Majestic in sideways channel (FSM same)
ag.png


EXK in another channel:
EXK.png


I don't see anything similar in the goldies, just in many of the silvers.