The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

[jelly]

Looking like we finally have our low in place in gold today. Only time will tell if it's THE low, but this is what we've been waiting for. Noone wants to touch the miners though.
Gold/USD - Nice bullish engulfing candle:

Gold in Euro's - Beautiful reversal candlestick.

Gold in Aussie - Just as beautiful:

 

[JayDubya]

Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.

 

[Uglytruth]

Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.

DIdn's she make a big deal out of what Trump did with his holdings?

 

[Lancers32]

Well, there you go, at least THAT's settled now.

Pelosi says her husband has ‘absolutely not’ made any stock trades based on information from her​

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...nformation-from-her-11658425648?siteid=yhoof2

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday offered a strong denial when she was asked by a reporter if her husband has ever made a stock purchase or sale based on information received from her.

“No, absolutely not,” the California Democrat said, after getting the question about Paul Pelosi’s trades during her weekly press conference.

Paul Pelosi, a businessman and private investor, has often generated headlines for his trades, including his recent big bet on chip and software company Nvidia NVDA, +1.36%, which comes as Congress looks poised to approve $52 billion in subsidies for the U.S. semiconductor SMH, +1.68% SOXX, +1.63% industry.

Thanks to his trades, Nancy Pelosi ranked as the eighth-biggest trader last year among Congress’s more than 500 members, with $12 million in buys and no sells. That’s according to a MarketWatch report in January that used a Capitol Trades analysis of disclosures filed by members of Congress for their trading activity or for their family members’ buys and sells.

Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been pushing for a ban on congressional buying and selling of individual stocks, but time is running out for this effort as Congress soon will take its August recess and then focus primarily on November’s midterm elections.

Polyester pants on fire.

 

[Jodster]

Looking like we finally have our low in place in gold today. Only time will tell if it's THE low, but this is what we've been waiting for. Noone wants to touch the miners though.
Gold/USD - Nice bullish engulfing candle:
View attachment 268274
Gold in Euro's - Beautiful reversal candlestick.
View attachment 268276

Gold in Aussie - Just as beautiful:
View attachment 268275

What’s your thoughts on when the miners stop hemorrhaging? Would we need a few days or weeks of solid support? Would like to enter SILJ and GDXJ wee little bit

 

[Lancers32]

Most of the miners the vast majority bottomed last week ahead of Gold. Look at the charts. HL SILJ AUY a whole slew of them. GDX is the weakest of them all.

 

[jelly]

What’s your thoughts on when the miners stop hemorrhaging? Would we need a few days or weeks of solid support? Would like to enter SILJ and GDXJ wee little bit

I've been buying NUGT the past couple days, and will buy a little more tomorrow. I'd like to see what happens after the Fed meeting before going heavy into that trade though.

Let's be blunt about the miners - everyone is scared to even touch them. There have been so many false bottoms and one day pops, where the floor fell out the next day, that noone wants to take a chance on these things. They have been left for dead.
Like Lancers has pointed out, most miners have already bottomed. But heavy buying hasn't entered yet to drive the prices higher.

My only concern is how fast the rebound will be. Sentiment is so bad that I'm leaning toward a very slow and volatile ride up instead of a V-shape recovery. I'd usually buy call options at a moment like this, but I'm leaning toward just using NUGT due to the chance we have a very slow recovery.

 

[Jodster]

Yeah you and Lancers bring up what I’ve been thinking. By any means it looks like a double bottom was put in.
But knowing my luck, I would buy in and there would immediately be another 20% retracement.
After Christmas, $18 silver was “highly unlikely”. Now we sit and ponder $15 and think it’s unlikely.
Say what you will, I don’t think the slaughter is over.
But as Lancers chart above shows, we could have a 15-20% short term rebound.
However I think the slaughter in miners and commodities in general, has yet to happen.
While you guys are starting to DCA, the sting of trying to catch a falling knife feels very fresh to me.

 

[Lancers32]

The market doesn't know if you are in or out.

 

[Uglytruth]

Is buffett buying? He went in a while back. His style is to continue to buy if it's getting cheaper & he belives the miners are the place to be. He also has inside info on if it would be outlawed etc.......

 

[Jodster]

Is buffett buying? He went in a while back. His style is to continue to buy if it's getting cheaper & he belives the miners are the place to be. He also has inside info on if it would be outlawed etc.......

If I was worth Billions I could keep DCA also. There’s quite a few memes that summarize how I continued to position in until I ran out of money. . . And the market wasn’t done with me yet.
I had no more dry powder 20% ago

 

[Cigarlover]

AU stock looks to be making a move. Will it last? Anyones guess. I look at newmont and still trading at a PE in the low 40's. seems like a larger haircut is in order for them. Other big names are also trading with higher pe's. Others are trading at a PE under 10. Those are the ones with a lower risk reward ratio IMO. AU with a pe of 9.5 and paying a 4.8% dividend right now seems like a good candidate.

For now I think I wait and just build up my cash position. Be ready to jump in when Powell reverses. I dont expect that to happen for at least a few months though. 1 more rate hike then see where inflation is.

 

[bemac]

"I may have missed the bottom by about 5 days."

Uh, huh, "about 5 days."

 

[jelly]

The volatility in the gold miners is such a pain.
Miners not trusting this rally in gold. Miners are not responding well to this bounce. They should be up 5% if they trusted this.

 

[jelly]

some of the majors are still dumping. Agnico eagle, barrick, newmont...
Not a positive sign...

 

[jelly]

Many of the silver miners are in formation on their hourly charts.
First Majestic in sideways channel (FSM same)

EXK in another channel:

I don't see anything similar in the goldies, just in many of the silvers.

 

[Voodoo]

Overall market selling hard. But you have to know that the ENTIRE stock market system is dying / being destroyed. The DTCC is a scam.

 

[Uglytruth]

Mining is very energy intensive. How much has it raised the cost of mining? What is the new floor in production costs and the end result in metal pricing? Why would miners not sell direct? It's a busines model that works for so many middlemen it seems like it would be very cost effective to mine, mint & sell direct. Bypassing everything except producer & consumer.

 

[Voodoo]

Mining is very energy intensive. How much has it raised the cost of mining? What is the new floor in production costs and the end result in metal pricing? Why would miners not sell direct? It's a busines model that works for so many middlemen it seems like it would be very cost effective to mine, mint & sell direct. Bypassing everything except producer & consumer.

High energy prices are absolutely going to negatively hurt miners. Heck, some may even find diesel hard to get. So at this moment economics are not good at all and you would expect some weakness. But it's all a scam and its starting to come apart, so its insurance that you are absolutely going to need. If all you own is juniors looking for the moon with nothing else invested, well, ya you kinda messed it up but will be ok.

 

[dpong]

My Weekend Trend Trader system has moved me back into the market in a small way.
Buying SKYT and VUZI at Monday's open.
[So I'm no longer 100% in cash.]

 

[Cigarlover]

Summer doldrums. Everything just sorta fizzled today.

 

[Uglytruth]

As of 7/22/22 the us debt clock ( https://usdebtclock.org/index.html?taxpayer= ) says USD to gold is $11357 and silver is $1541.
WIth all the printing that seems very low. Is that accurate?

 

[BeefJerky]

As of 7/22/22 the us debt clock ( https://usdebtclock.org/index.html?taxpayer= ) says USD to gold is $11357 and silver is $1541.
WIth all the printing that seems very low. Is that accurate?

What those numbers represent is how many dollars were created for every ounce mined during the past year only.

What one should find of interest in those numbers, amongst other things, is that shows only 7.36 ounces of silver was mined for 1 oz of gold. Yet the silver:gold ratio is over 90:1...lol

 

[FADEAWAY]

A piece of paper will lie still and let you write anything on it. !!

 

[Uglytruth]

What those numbers represent is how many dollars were created for every ounce mined during the past year only.

Where / how can I find the dollars against everything in circulation?

 

[lukdiver]

Speaking of 'real' money, a interesting Saker article on the dollar and the comments are worth reading IMO:

Western currencies will fail | The Vineyard of the Saker

A bird's eye view of the vineyard

thesaker.is

I don't believe this chart but will be interesting to see who is swimming naked if/when the tide goes out:

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F04aa56dc-bbf7-4e8d-b435-3d73dd0223dd_700x815.png

https://3ncridad6ai1jg5mt30vexk1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/image001-1.png

 

[BeefJerky]

Where / how can I find the dollars against everything in circulation?

I don't really know. World Gold Council has a number for total gold mined in history and Silver Institute has numbers for silver. Then I think there is supposedly around 6 trillion dollars in circulation globally depending on whose numbers you use.

 

[Lancers32]

$1550 is halfway back. I wouldn't use MA as support might work sometimes. August 7th is the 2 year anniversary.

 

[Lancers32]

 

[dpong]

When is a recession not a recession?

[When the White House redefines recession.]

[Yes, really.]

 

[Cigarlover]

AU stock looks to be making a move. Will it last? Anyones guess. I look at newmont and still trading at a PE in the low 40's. seems like a larger haircut is in order for them. Other big names are also trading with higher pe's. Others are trading at a PE under 10. Those are the ones with a lower risk reward ratio IMO. AU with a pe of 9.5 and paying a 4.8% dividend right now seems like a good candidate.

For now I think I wait and just build up my cash position. Be ready to jump in when Powell reverses. I dont expect that to happen for at least a few months though. 1 more rate hike then see where inflation is.

Newmont getting their haircut today. Down 13% so far. PE now in the low 30's. Dividend almost 5% now. How low will she go?

I expect Powell will raise rates again. .5-.75. Should send everything down again including metals. After that how much more can he raise rates without bankrupting the US government? Then again if inflation numbers dont start coming down what choice does he have? The Government can always raise taxes to pay the interest on the debt. Interesting times we live in.

 

[jelly]

I would like to see gold miners continue to head lower into Wed. when the Fed meets. Good probability of a reversal then.
It'll be a wild week anyway. Fed meeting Wed afternoon, followed by GDP results Thursday which will tell us if we're officially in a recession or not. Better grab your vomit-bag if you're on this ride.

 

[Lancers32]

Interesting that although Gold respected the previous bottoms and Silver hadn't that for the most part the Silver stocks have done much better on balance than the Golds. Still favor the long side so long as $1670 Gold holds. A Small move lower was to be expected in Gold.

 

[Lancers32]

 

[Jodster]

I just started a new job where I actually have to work for a living. No time to incessantly surf this place.
Can somebody tell me what the flip is going on with the markets?
The rumours of physical metal shortages and surging spot prices, coupled with just a shitshow from the Fed and Team Brandon have me thinking the end is nigh.
Maybe I’m just over-tired. My feet hurt.

 

[jelly]

I just started a new job where I actually have to work for a living. No time to incessantly surf this place.
Can somebody tell me what the flip is going on with the markets?
The rumours of physical metal shortages and surging spot prices, coupled with just a shitshow from the Fed and Team Brandon have me thinking the end is nigh.
Maybe I’m just over-tired. My feet hurt.

Everything is noise except for the Fed meeting Wed. and GDP results Thursday. Nothing else matters. Gold miners are extremely oversold, so I'm thinking we get a rally from here - but not becuase of shortages or surging prices.

 

[dpong]

Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]

 

[savvydon]

Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]

Also watch the macro picture/forces that are likely to move price... Hemke:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Putting-The-Stag-in-Stagflation-Craig-Hemke-July-26-2022

 

[dpong]

Also watch the macro picture/forces that are likely to move price... Hemke:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/Putting-The-Stag-in-Stagflation-Craig-Hemke-July-26-2022

I enjoy reading about macro, but for trading I really have changed to only care about price movement. Not kidding.

 

[Lancers32]

I enjoy reading about macro, but for trading I really have changed to only care about price movement. Not kidding.

Yeah that's all well and good but the only thing that matters is how the market reacts to all of the info. Price is king all the rest is just so much bullshit. I agree with you.