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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Voodoo

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Overall market selling hard. But you have to know that the ENTIRE stock market system is dying / being destroyed. The DTCC is a scam.
 

Uglytruth

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Mining is very energy intensive. How much has it raised the cost of mining? What is the new floor in production costs and the end result in metal pricing? Why would miners not sell direct? It's a busines model that works for so many middlemen it seems like it would be very cost effective to mine, mint & sell direct. Bypassing everything except producer & consumer.
 

Voodoo

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Mining is very energy intensive. How much has it raised the cost of mining? What is the new floor in production costs and the end result in metal pricing? Why would miners not sell direct? It's a busines model that works for so many middlemen it seems like it would be very cost effective to mine, mint & sell direct. Bypassing everything except producer & consumer.

High energy prices are absolutely going to negatively hurt miners. Heck, some may even find diesel hard to get. So at this moment economics are not good at all and you would expect some weakness. But it's all a scam and its starting to come apart, so its insurance that you are absolutely going to need. If all you own is juniors looking for the moon with nothing else invested, well, ya you kinda messed it up but will be ok.
 

dpong

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My Weekend Trend Trader system has moved me back into the market in a small way.
Buying SKYT and VUZI at Monday's open.
[So I'm no longer 100% in cash.]

SKYT_2022-07-22_17-19-53.png

VUZI_2022-07-22_17-20-01.png
 

Cigarlover

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Summer doldrums. Everything just sorta fizzled today.
 

Uglytruth

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BeefJerky

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As of 7/22/22 the us debt clock ( https://usdebtclock.org/index.html?taxpayer= ) says USD to gold is $11357 and silver is $1541.
WIth all the printing that seems very low. Is that accurate?
What those numbers represent is how many dollars were created for every ounce mined during the past year only.

What one should find of interest in those numbers, amongst other things, is that shows only 7.36 ounces of silver was mined for 1 oz of gold. Yet the silver:gold ratio is over 90:1...lol
 

Uglytruth

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What those numbers represent is how many dollars were created for every ounce mined during the past year only.
Where / how can I find the dollars against everything in circulation?
 

lukdiver

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BeefJerky

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Where / how can I find the dollars against everything in circulation?
I don't really know. World Gold Council has a number for total gold mined in history and Silver Institute has numbers for silver. Then I think there is supposedly around 6 trillion dollars in circulation globally depending on whose numbers you use.
 

dpong

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When is a recession not a recession?

[When the White House redefines recession.]

WH_Redefines__Recession__Days_Before_Expected_GDP_Report_Showing_More_Growth_Declines_-_Big_Le...jpg


[Yes, really.]
 

Cigarlover

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AU stock looks to be making a move. Will it last? Anyones guess. I look at newmont and still trading at a PE in the low 40's. seems like a larger haircut is in order for them. Other big names are also trading with higher pe's. Others are trading at a PE under 10. Those are the ones with a lower risk reward ratio IMO. AU with a pe of 9.5 and paying a 4.8% dividend right now seems like a good candidate.

For now I think I wait and just build up my cash position. Be ready to jump in when Powell reverses. I dont expect that to happen for at least a few months though. 1 more rate hike then see where inflation is.
Newmont getting their haircut today. Down 13% so far. PE now in the low 30's. Dividend almost 5% now. How low will she go?

I expect Powell will raise rates again. .5-.75. Should send everything down again including metals. After that how much more can he raise rates without bankrupting the US government? Then again if inflation numbers dont start coming down what choice does he have? The Government can always raise taxes to pay the interest on the debt. Interesting times we live in.
 

jelly

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I would like to see gold miners continue to head lower into Wed. when the Fed meets. Good probability of a reversal then.
It'll be a wild week anyway. Fed meeting Wed afternoon, followed by GDP results Thursday which will tell us if we're officially in a recession or not. Better grab your vomit-bag if you're on this ride.
 

Lancers32

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Interesting that although Gold respected the previous bottoms and Silver hadn't that for the most part the Silver stocks have done much better on balance than the Golds. Still favor the long side so long as $1670 Gold holds. A Small move lower was to be expected in Gold.
 

Lancers32

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FYic6G6X0AE8pnC.jpg
 

Jodster

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I just started a new job where I actually have to work for a living. No time to incessantly surf this place.
Can somebody tell me what the flip is going on with the markets?
The rumours of physical metal shortages and surging spot prices, coupled with just a shitshow from the Fed and Team Brandon have me thinking the end is nigh.
Maybe I’m just over-tired. My feet hurt.
 

jelly

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I just started a new job where I actually have to work for a living. No time to incessantly surf this place.
Can somebody tell me what the flip is going on with the markets?
The rumours of physical metal shortages and surging spot prices, coupled with just a shitshow from the Fed and Team Brandon have me thinking the end is nigh.
Maybe I’m just over-tired. My feet hurt.
Everything is noise except for the Fed meeting Wed. and GDP results Thursday. Nothing else matters. Gold miners are extremely oversold, so I'm thinking we get a rally from here - but not becuase of shortages or surging prices.
 

dpong

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Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]
 

dpong

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Lancers32

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I enjoy reading about macro, but for trading I really have changed to only care about price movement. Not kidding.
Yeah that's all well and good but the only thing that matters is how the market reacts to all of the info. Price is king all the rest is just so much bullshit. I agree with you.


FYqYmf-XgAA1EQt.png
 

savvydon

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Price is king all the rest is just so much bullshit.
Of course this is true, but most of us like to try to size up how we think things are going to unfold. If one were to bet on a football game, the only thing that ends up mattering is the score. That doesn't mean you aren't going to spend time looking at both teams' strengths and weaknesses, and predicting how the event is going to unfold.
 

Lancers32

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No confidence in government high inflation metals down close to 2 years. Make sense of that.
 

Tbonz

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No confidence in government high inflation metals down close to 2 years. Make sense of that.
The 30 Trillion Dollar Gorilla in the room (FED) is playing games with the economy, more specifically the markets in an attempt to "soften" the landing.

You consider the last 36 months and the amount of money that has been printed out of thin air, and the amount the FED has put into the market, there is NO surprise that metals are down, metals don't fit their narrative.
 

Lancers32

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The 30 Trillion Dollar Gorilla in the room (FED) is playing games with the economy, more specifically the markets in an attempt to "soften" the landing.

You consider the last 36 months and the amount of money that has been printed out of thin air, and the amount the FED has put into the market, there is NO surprise that metals are down, metals don't fit their narrative.
OK if you believe that then why would you be involved in metals at all? When they are ready to move they will move. I hear a big buyer bought like what 50 million dollars worth of Gold/Silver not sure of the breakdown. This was a potential buyer now a potential seller. How is any of that bullish?
 

Lancers32

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Either the Japanese or Chinese forget which now but they bought Pebble Beach I think it was at the top and sold for a loss. Again?


 

Tbonz

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OK if you believe that then why would you be involved in metals at all? When they are ready to move they will move. I hear a big buyer bought like what 50 million dollars worth of Gold/Silver not sure of the breakdown. This was a potential buyer now a potential seller. How is any of that bullish?
I'm involved with metals because at some time the music stops. Gold and Silver have ALWAYS had value, the $100 bills that some people hold dear will have less value than toilet paper.

Just cause I call out the game, doesn't mean that I don't believe in the value of AU and AG.
 

Lancers32

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I'm involved with metals because at some time the music stops. Gold and Silver have ALWAYS had value, the $100 bills that some people hold dear will have less value than toilet paper.

Just cause I call out the game, doesn't mean that I don't believe in the value of AU and AG.
Been involved in this space since the mid 1970's. Widows and orphans made more money sitting in an SP500 fund. Until it collapses is hasn't. Good luck getting across the borders with metals. I think at some point it runs not sure what good it will do ya.
 

Uglytruth

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It's a frustrating hold even if your "up" you know you are not keeping up. If it was easier to sell I think many would have sold by now.

But with that said I have two guys I was working with. One pulled his 600K and sitting in a money market from the first of the year. Other one had 1.5m & is still down 300K for the year "because you have to rude the down to ride the up's".
 

dpong

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Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]

I have been brainwashed by the Trend Followers to talk like this.

[But in my way of trading, I believe it, too.]
 

dpong

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Of course this is true, but most of us like to try to size up how we think things are going to unfold. If one were to bet on a football game, the only thing that ends up mattering is the score. That doesn't mean you aren't going to spend time looking at both teams' strengths and weaknesses, and predicting how the event is going to unfold.
Predicting is fun, but my trend following way is to not trade on my predictions. Instead trade on trending prices only. If it reverses get out.

[Let winners run, cut losers.]
 

Jodster

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Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]
Elliott wave and Fibonacci are stronger than manipulation.
However manipulation can cause distortion on the time axis.
EW will prevail if we persist in our convictions.
 

dpong

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EW gives me headache.

Are we trending or not trending?

[The rest is BS.]
 

jelly

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Majors like NEM, GOLD, AEM, had a weak rally today. While juniors exploded higher, especially the silver juniors. Usually majors are the ones to lead the rallies, so not sure what to think of this...
 

dpong

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How can you tell we are trending? EW? Fib? Or some other witchcraft ?
Technically speaking, my Weekend Trend Trader system uses ROC(20) which is 20 week Rate of Change being greater than 30%. This means we are 30% higher than we were 20 weeks ago, so this is a very very simple indicator. WTT combines that with a 20 week breakout. If both of those are true, then we have a buy signal. Easy peasy.

Otherwise one can use one's eyeballs. A trend certainly depends upon the timeframe one chooses. For example, can you spot the trend of the last 3 or 4 months in SILJ? No voodoo required.

You aren't wrong, that defining a "trend" can be an existential exercise, but it doesn't have to be.

SILJ_2022-07-28_05-26-30.png
 

dpong

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My Weekend Trend Trader system is "excited" that the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 ETF has broken above its 10 week moving average. It is early days but this could indicate the beginning of a new upward trend.

[If it reverses lower, we will be out. That's the beauty of the thing.]

IWM_2022-07-28_05-41-02.png