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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

savvydon

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Price is king all the rest is just so much bullshit.
Of course this is true, but most of us like to try to size up how we think things are going to unfold. If one were to bet on a football game, the only thing that ends up mattering is the score. That doesn't mean you aren't going to spend time looking at both teams' strengths and weaknesses, and predicting how the event is going to unfold.
 

Lancers32

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No confidence in government high inflation metals down close to 2 years. Make sense of that.
 

Tbonz

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No confidence in government high inflation metals down close to 2 years. Make sense of that.
The 30 Trillion Dollar Gorilla in the room (FED) is playing games with the economy, more specifically the markets in an attempt to "soften" the landing.

You consider the last 36 months and the amount of money that has been printed out of thin air, and the amount the FED has put into the market, there is NO surprise that metals are down, metals don't fit their narrative.
 

Lancers32

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The 30 Trillion Dollar Gorilla in the room (FED) is playing games with the economy, more specifically the markets in an attempt to "soften" the landing.

You consider the last 36 months and the amount of money that has been printed out of thin air, and the amount the FED has put into the market, there is NO surprise that metals are down, metals don't fit their narrative.
OK if you believe that then why would you be involved in metals at all? When they are ready to move they will move. I hear a big buyer bought like what 50 million dollars worth of Gold/Silver not sure of the breakdown. This was a potential buyer now a potential seller. How is any of that bullish?
 

Lancers32

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Either the Japanese or Chinese forget which now but they bought Pebble Beach I think it was at the top and sold for a loss. Again?


 

Tbonz

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OK if you believe that then why would you be involved in metals at all? When they are ready to move they will move. I hear a big buyer bought like what 50 million dollars worth of Gold/Silver not sure of the breakdown. This was a potential buyer now a potential seller. How is any of that bullish?
I'm involved with metals because at some time the music stops. Gold and Silver have ALWAYS had value, the $100 bills that some people hold dear will have less value than toilet paper.

Just cause I call out the game, doesn't mean that I don't believe in the value of AU and AG.
 

Lancers32

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I'm involved with metals because at some time the music stops. Gold and Silver have ALWAYS had value, the $100 bills that some people hold dear will have less value than toilet paper.

Just cause I call out the game, doesn't mean that I don't believe in the value of AU and AG.
Been involved in this space since the mid 1970's. Widows and orphans made more money sitting in an SP500 fund. Until it collapses is hasn't. Good luck getting across the borders with metals. I think at some point it runs not sure what good it will do ya.
 

Uglytruth

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It's a frustrating hold even if your "up" you know you are not keeping up. If it was easier to sell I think many would have sold by now.

But with that said I have two guys I was working with. One pulled his 600K and sitting in a money market from the first of the year. Other one had 1.5m & is still down 300K for the year "because you have to rude the down to ride the up's".
 

dpong

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Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]

I have been brainwashed by the Trend Followers to talk like this.

[But in my way of trading, I believe it, too.]
 

dpong

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Of course this is true, but most of us like to try to size up how we think things are going to unfold. If one were to bet on a football game, the only thing that ends up mattering is the score. That doesn't mean you aren't going to spend time looking at both teams' strengths and weaknesses, and predicting how the event is going to unfold.
Predicting is fun, but my trend following way is to not trade on my predictions. Instead trade on trending prices only. If it reverses get out.

[Let winners run, cut losers.]
 

Jodster

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Price. Price. Price.

[Just watch the price. Everything else is just noise.]
Elliott wave and Fibonacci are stronger than manipulation.
However manipulation can cause distortion on the time axis.
EW will prevail if we persist in our convictions.
 

dpong

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EW gives me headache.

Are we trending or not trending?

[The rest is BS.]
 

jelly

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Majors like NEM, GOLD, AEM, had a weak rally today. While juniors exploded higher, especially the silver juniors. Usually majors are the ones to lead the rallies, so not sure what to think of this...
 

dpong

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How can you tell we are trending? EW? Fib? Or some other witchcraft ?
Technically speaking, my Weekend Trend Trader system uses ROC(20) which is 20 week Rate of Change being greater than 30%. This means we are 30% higher than we were 20 weeks ago, so this is a very very simple indicator. WTT combines that with a 20 week breakout. If both of those are true, then we have a buy signal. Easy peasy.

Otherwise one can use one's eyeballs. A trend certainly depends upon the timeframe one chooses. For example, can you spot the trend of the last 3 or 4 months in SILJ? No voodoo required.

You aren't wrong, that defining a "trend" can be an existential exercise, but it doesn't have to be.

SILJ_2022-07-28_05-26-30.png
 

dpong

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My Weekend Trend Trader system is "excited" that the weekly chart of the Russell 2000 ETF has broken above its 10 week moving average. It is early days but this could indicate the beginning of a new upward trend.

[If it reverses lower, we will be out. That's the beauty of the thing.]

IWM_2022-07-28_05-41-02.png
 

Jodster

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Dpong, can you explain why 20 week ROC seems to be the sweet spot? Is this the optimum time period to use when defining Bear or Bull markets?
 

dpong

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Dpong, can you explain why 20 week ROC seems to be the sweet spot? Is this the optimum time period to use when defining Bear or Bull markets?
I just gave it as an example, that it doesn't have to be complicated. I don't claim it is the sweet spot. It came to me from Nick Radge who authored the Weekend Trend Trader booklet and system that I use. It's not magic in any way. The key to my confidence is that the WTT system can be (and I have done so) coded as software and tested against price data. Its called back-testing. I can test what the system would have done given the incoming price data. It works.

I mean you asked a very astute question. To paraphrase, how do you know you have a trend? That can be a very deep and complicated question. On the other hand, I point out, it doesn't have to be.
 

Jodster

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I just gave it as an example, that it doesn't have to be complicated. I don't claim it is the sweet spot. It came to me from Nick Radge who authored the Weekend Trend Trader booklet and system that I use. It's not magic in any way. The key to my confidence is that the WTT system can be (and I have done so) coded as software and tested against price data. Its called back-testing. I can test what the system would have done given the incoming price data. It works.

I mean you asked a very astute question. To paraphrase, how do you know you have a trend? That can be a very deep and complicated question. On the other hand, I point out, it doesn't have to be.
Yeah Dpong, I don’t mean to be bluntly astute but typing on a phone doesn’t always convey the nuances of what I’m after.
Yesterday I felt that EW and Fib levels almost always apply and that the distortion happens because of manipulation skewing the timeline.
But even the manipulators probably have algos that have a fixed time constant. In a PID loop this would be the proportional gain. It’s what gives algo’s their “clout” or inertia.
If we could crack the manipulators time constants then this market would make a lot more sense!
 

Uglytruth

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It would seem with the longer conformation it takes out the daily noise, rumors, pops & drops. Will get you in when things are looking up or out with smaller losses.

So how have your results been in the past 12 months? If I remember right you use a % per trade (20%?) & only have a few going at the same time because of that.
 

dpong

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It would seem with the longer conformation it takes out the daily noise, rumors, pops & drops. Will get you in when things are looking up or out with smaller losses.

So how have your results been in the past 12 months? If I remember right you use a % per trade (20%?) & only have a few going at the same time because of that.
I purchase each stock with 5% of my portfolio value, so I can have up to 20 trades. This year has sucked so far. I'm down about 11% so far. This is normal. This system wins in the long term. Losses do occur. As a trader, that is a fact of life.

[You can't take out of the stock market that which it is not willing to give. But when it does give, you can take plenty.]
 

dpong

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I hadn’t coded the formula correctly in 2020. Was making adjustments to get it right. So in 2020 I made gains of about 30% or more. Once I got the coding right, backtesting shows I could have made 80% or more.
 

Uglytruth

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1659006791560.png
 

jelly

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Gold majors rally still weak. I would like to see a lot more strength than this
 

jelly

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WEAK.
Silver up 4.8% and SIL up 3.6%. SIL should have had a 10% day. Makes you wonder - is this a dead cat bounce?
 

Jodster

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WEAK.
Silver up 4.8% and SIL up 3.6%. SIL should have had a 10% day. Makes you wonder - is this a dead cat bounce?
Jelly for the win. Even the French won some battles in WW2. But don’t expect it to be a trend.
The Cabal isn’t desperate yet. And when the COMEX is down to like 15 Moz, JP Morgue is going to lend them a few hundred million “allocated” to stabilize the market.
 

Au-myn

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That's also what I am thinking.

This 3 x 28 square reversal Point & Figure chart highlights a High Pole in lite red setting up a Bearish Signal formation sell signal at 1,876. Which takes us to the 1,860 support line.
View attachment 267997
Hey Jelly! The support from 1680 did hold. Away we go!

Au28.png
 

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Lots of miners look to be breaking the downtrend. I'll post some charts of ones I follow over the weekend. I did come off the sidelines for a small position in silver crest. I figure the upside reward is greater than the downside risk here. I am looking to add more for a longer term position so any weakness next week and I will jump in for another buy and then sit tight on the 3rd buy or add to somme other positions I have.
I have been positive for the last 3 weeks in a row. Small gains, 1-1.5% but definitely heading in the right direction. This week finished up about 7 or 8%, Little more than 10% for the last 3 weeks now. I need a lot more weeks to get even but it is nice to see some green for a change.
 

Uglytruth

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Buying 10 yr with fake money by the fed.....

 

dpong

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The last trading day of July has come and gone. Here is the monthly chart of the S&P 500.

[It is almost back to levels when I sold. I'm still in cash.]

SPX_2022-07-29_20-28-57.png
 

dpong

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The last candle was a big green. What’s your program telling you?
I don't predict. So if it closes a month above the 20 month moving average I'll buy back in. That's it.
 

Lancers32

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Think it is bad here? Argentina is a real place with what used to be a real economy. They go upside down all of the time though so I guess they are used to it by now.



 

Au-myn

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Time for the usd to go down. Bearish signal formation sell signal at 105.6 on this 3 x .40 P & F chart. Good for PM's!

Edited to add the High Pole.

usd2.png
 
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Uglytruth

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Jodster

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Having a tough morning of FOMO. Setting bids at April 2020 levels, but last few weeks felt like a bottom.
Will they get filled? Who knows?!?
 

dpong

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Weekend Trend Trader system has moved to condition green (last week) because the IWM index closed above its 10 week moving average. We are buying.

Last Monday I bought 2 stocks and this coming Monday I will buy 8 more, bringing me to 10 stocks held. That is 50% invested.

It doesn't feel great. But that is what nondiscretionary trading does. It pushes you out of your comfort zone.

[For better or worse.]

[Never forget: backtesting.]
 

Lancers32

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Having a tough morning of FOMO. Setting bids at April 2020 levels, but last few weeks felt like a bottom.
Will they get filled? Who knows?!?

You like Uranium right? Take a look at the pattern developing in UEC, W is a strong bullish pattern. First objective was $3.70 close which has occurred. Next up is $4.70. I would be a buyer in the range $3.65-$3.75. I think the guys who use EW which I think is useless that have been looking for one more move down will miss the boat.
Bottoms are made on extreme fear and are uncomfortable to buy. Like Cigarlover posted earlier buy on the next move down. A sharp 2 day correction would be the place to get in if not already long.
 

Jodster

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You like Uranium right? Take a look at the pattern developing in UEC, W is a strong bullish pattern. First objective was $3.70 close which has occurred. Next up is $4.70. I would be a buyer in the range $3.65-$3.75. I think the guys who use EW which I think is useless that have been looking for one more move down will miss the boat.
Bottoms are made on extreme fear and are uncomfortable to buy. Like Cigarlover posted earlier buy on the next move down. A sharp 2 day correction would be the place to get in if not already long.
Thanks Lancers. You feel the same way about Precious Metals, as you do for U?