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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Jodster

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Dpong, can you explain why 20 week ROC seems to be the sweet spot? Is this the optimum time period to use when defining Bear or Bull markets?
 

dpong

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Dpong, can you explain why 20 week ROC seems to be the sweet spot? Is this the optimum time period to use when defining Bear or Bull markets?
I just gave it as an example, that it doesn't have to be complicated. I don't claim it is the sweet spot. It came to me from Nick Radge who authored the Weekend Trend Trader booklet and system that I use. It's not magic in any way. The key to my confidence is that the WTT system can be (and I have done so) coded as software and tested against price data. Its called back-testing. I can test what the system would have done given the incoming price data. It works.

I mean you asked a very astute question. To paraphrase, how do you know you have a trend? That can be a very deep and complicated question. On the other hand, I point out, it doesn't have to be.
 

Jodster

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I just gave it as an example, that it doesn't have to be complicated. I don't claim it is the sweet spot. It came to me from Nick Radge who authored the Weekend Trend Trader booklet and system that I use. It's not magic in any way. The key to my confidence is that the WTT system can be (and I have done so) coded as software and tested against price data. Its called back-testing. I can test what the system would have done given the incoming price data. It works.

I mean you asked a very astute question. To paraphrase, how do you know you have a trend? That can be a very deep and complicated question. On the other hand, I point out, it doesn't have to be.
Yeah Dpong, I don’t mean to be bluntly astute but typing on a phone doesn’t always convey the nuances of what I’m after.
Yesterday I felt that EW and Fib levels almost always apply and that the distortion happens because of manipulation skewing the timeline.
But even the manipulators probably have algos that have a fixed time constant. In a PID loop this would be the proportional gain. It’s what gives algo’s their “clout” or inertia.
If we could crack the manipulators time constants then this market would make a lot more sense!
 

Uglytruth

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It would seem with the longer conformation it takes out the daily noise, rumors, pops & drops. Will get you in when things are looking up or out with smaller losses.

So how have your results been in the past 12 months? If I remember right you use a % per trade (20%?) & only have a few going at the same time because of that.
 

dpong

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It would seem with the longer conformation it takes out the daily noise, rumors, pops & drops. Will get you in when things are looking up or out with smaller losses.

So how have your results been in the past 12 months? If I remember right you use a % per trade (20%?) & only have a few going at the same time because of that.
I purchase each stock with 5% of my portfolio value, so I can have up to 20 trades. This year has sucked so far. I'm down about 11% so far. This is normal. This system wins in the long term. Losses do occur. As a trader, that is a fact of life.

[You can't take out of the stock market that which it is not willing to give. But when it does give, you can take plenty.]
 

dpong

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I hadn’t coded the formula correctly in 2020. Was making adjustments to get it right. So in 2020 I made gains of about 30% or more. Once I got the coding right, backtesting shows I could have made 80% or more.
 

Uglytruth

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1659006791560.png
 

jelly

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Gold majors rally still weak. I would like to see a lot more strength than this
 

jelly

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WEAK.
Silver up 4.8% and SIL up 3.6%. SIL should have had a 10% day. Makes you wonder - is this a dead cat bounce?
 

Jodster

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WEAK.
Silver up 4.8% and SIL up 3.6%. SIL should have had a 10% day. Makes you wonder - is this a dead cat bounce?
Jelly for the win. Even the French won some battles in WW2. But don’t expect it to be a trend.
The Cabal isn’t desperate yet. And when the COMEX is down to like 15 Moz, JP Morgue is going to lend them a few hundred million “allocated” to stabilize the market.
 

Au-myn

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That's also what I am thinking.

This 3 x 28 square reversal Point & Figure chart highlights a High Pole in lite red setting up a Bearish Signal formation sell signal at 1,876. Which takes us to the 1,860 support line.
View attachment 267997
Hey Jelly! The support from 1680 did hold. Away we go!

Au28.png
 

Cigarlover

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Lots of miners look to be breaking the downtrend. I'll post some charts of ones I follow over the weekend. I did come off the sidelines for a small position in silver crest. I figure the upside reward is greater than the downside risk here. I am looking to add more for a longer term position so any weakness next week and I will jump in for another buy and then sit tight on the 3rd buy or add to somme other positions I have.
I have been positive for the last 3 weeks in a row. Small gains, 1-1.5% but definitely heading in the right direction. This week finished up about 7 or 8%, Little more than 10% for the last 3 weeks now. I need a lot more weeks to get even but it is nice to see some green for a change.
 

Uglytruth

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Buying 10 yr with fake money by the fed.....

 

dpong

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The last trading day of July has come and gone. Here is the monthly chart of the S&P 500.

[It is almost back to levels when I sold. I'm still in cash.]

SPX_2022-07-29_20-28-57.png
 

dpong

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The last candle was a big green. What’s your program telling you?
I don't predict. So if it closes a month above the 20 month moving average I'll buy back in. That's it.
 

Lancers32

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Think it is bad here? Argentina is a real place with what used to be a real economy. They go upside down all of the time though so I guess they are used to it by now.



 

Au-myn

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Time for the usd to go down. Bearish signal formation sell signal at 105.6 on this 3 x .40 P & F chart. Good for PM's!

Edited to add the High Pole.

usd2.png
 
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Uglytruth

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Jodster

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Having a tough morning of FOMO. Setting bids at April 2020 levels, but last few weeks felt like a bottom.
Will they get filled? Who knows?!?
 

dpong

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Weekend Trend Trader system has moved to condition green (last week) because the IWM index closed above its 10 week moving average. We are buying.

Last Monday I bought 2 stocks and this coming Monday I will buy 8 more, bringing me to 10 stocks held. That is 50% invested.

It doesn't feel great. But that is what nondiscretionary trading does. It pushes you out of your comfort zone.

[For better or worse.]

[Never forget: backtesting.]
 

Lancers32

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Having a tough morning of FOMO. Setting bids at April 2020 levels, but last few weeks felt like a bottom.
Will they get filled? Who knows?!?

You like Uranium right? Take a look at the pattern developing in UEC, W is a strong bullish pattern. First objective was $3.70 close which has occurred. Next up is $4.70. I would be a buyer in the range $3.65-$3.75. I think the guys who use EW which I think is useless that have been looking for one more move down will miss the boat.
Bottoms are made on extreme fear and are uncomfortable to buy. Like Cigarlover posted earlier buy on the next move down. A sharp 2 day correction would be the place to get in if not already long.
 

Jodster

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You like Uranium right? Take a look at the pattern developing in UEC, W is a strong bullish pattern. First objective was $3.70 close which has occurred. Next up is $4.70. I would be a buyer in the range $3.65-$3.75. I think the guys who use EW which I think is useless that have been looking for one more move down will miss the boat.
Bottoms are made on extreme fear and are uncomfortable to buy. Like Cigarlover posted earlier buy on the next move down. A sharp 2 day correction would be the place to get in if not already long.
Thanks Lancers. You feel the same way about Precious Metals, as you do for U?
 

Lancers32

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Gaps close or runaway gaps? Two favorites Cigarlover mentioned Silvercrest.


SILV_2022-08-01_08-30-03.png
MAG_2022-08-01_08-29-46.png
 

Lancers32

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Not an absolutely pure play but as close as you can get without trading futures. Wheat itself got down to major support in the low 7's.


WEAT_2022-08-01_09-06-20.png
 

Lancers32

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Used to go to the Garden with the old man as a kid. Millrose and K of C meets saw the first 16' vault in history John Uelses. This kid jumped 12'8" at the age of 7. The best vaulters could barely manage that in my dual HS meets. Better than Bubka. Amazing.


 

Jodster

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Morning pondering:

I don't expect new life being breathed into the stock market any time soon. Brandon is still running the show politically. Powell & Yellen are compulsive liars and resorted to "reimagining" the definition of a Recession. Congress is corrupt and spending like drunken sailors.
The big players still have enough leverage and derivatives to manipulate any known stock or market. The fundamentals for SHTF are very much still in play.

There is something specific to precious metal markets; they're outliers. The break the general trend.
I can't think of any other market where the commodity is commanding such a premium to the product? WEAT? MOO? XOM? URNM? . . . The stocks follow, broadly, the cost of the commodity.
However with gold and silver costing massive premiums on the street, we see the mining and ETF's continue to be manipulated lower, while the physical commodity becomes more scarce and expensive.

This leads me to believe that the metals will be the first to break ranks and turn around. The predominant question is, how will this happen?

I believe the upcoming crash will look very much like April 2020, with one difference. The manipulators drove Silver and Gold down, too far, too early.
if there is infact, another lower move in the general markets, it would be hard for the metals and corresponding stocks to be driven lower. What may happen is the final positioning of JP Morgue and CITI into massive long positions, COMEX will default, and the markets finally allowed to run rampant. You will know when it's game on, as the MSM will finally cover this story with much verve and passion.
The ensuing frenzy into precious metals, in an un-manipulated market will catapult the prices into historic new highs. The massive long positions will ensure JPM and Citi get their slice of the profits, not from their historic downside manipulation, but from buying the dip and riding the beachball much higher in a free market.
 

Lancers32

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If you go back and look you'll see that even the biggest of all the pm markets feature more down days than up days.
 

Lancers32

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Morning pondering:

I don't expect new life being breathed into the stock market any time soon. Brandon is still running the show politically. Powell & Yellen are compulsive liars and resorted to "reimagining" the definition of a Recession. Congress is corrupt and spending like drunken sailors.
The big players still have enough leverage and derivatives to manipulate any known stock or market. The fundamentals for SHTF are very much still in play.

There is something specific to precious metal markets; they're outliers. The break the general trend.
I can't think of any other market where the commodity is commanding such a premium to the product? WEAT? MOO? XOM? URNM? . . . The stocks follow, broadly, the cost of the commodity.
However with gold and silver costing massive premiums on the street, we see the mining and ETF's continue to be manipulated lower, while the physical commodity becomes more scarce and expensive.

This leads me to believe that the metals will be the first to break ranks and turn around. The predominant question is, how will this happen?

I believe the upcoming crash will look very much like April 2020, with one difference. The manipulators drove Silver and Gold down, too far, too early.
if there is infact, another lower move in the general markets, it would be hard for the metals and corresponding stocks to be driven lower. What may happen is the final positioning of JP Morgue and CITI into massive long positions, COMEX will default, and the markets finally allowed to run rampant. You will know when it's game on, as the MSM will finally cover this story with much verve and passion.
The ensuing frenzy into precious metals, in an un-manipulated market will catapult the prices into historic new highs. The massive long positions will ensure JPM and Citi get their slice of the profits, not from their historic downside manipulation, but from buying the dip and riding the beachball much higher in a free market.

That much thinking would hurt my head. Easier to try to figure out what your wife meant when she said what she said.
 

Jodster

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That much thinking would hurt my head. Easier to try to figure out what your wife meant when she said what she said.
It's been 22 years and I still have no farging clue what my wife means most of the time.
Eerie similarity between October 2012 to July 2013 gold crash. Just look at the blue lines on the chart. Patterns line up almost perfectly and coincide about 3 years after a huge global event and massive amounts of stimulus.
Gold to $1400 by March 2023.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 10.53.35 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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Looks to me like wheat hasn't broken the downtrend.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.08.50 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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I know I owe some charts I promised over the weekend but hey, life happens. :).
Here's a couple.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.06.24 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.05.42 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.04.47 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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Lots of the miners charts looking similar. Could be a head fake. Get everyone loaded back up for the kill shot but right now I am cautiously optimistic. Was looking to start a position in Stillwater but they was having a hard time with that 10 dollar level. Waiting til it breaks that level and maybe get in around $10.20 or so. I think when it breaks 10 there is a good chance for a 10-20% move to the 12 dollar range. If it doesn't break that level I will look to start a longer term position in the low 9's. Pays a nice dividend as well so that's a bonus along with the longer term upside potential.

Overall I am liking the pullback I am seeing. Much better than a rocket launch and everyone chasing. Slow and steady is always a stronger move. I'm not seeing anything that looks like a reversal here so for now just watching and loading more cash into my account.

GDX and GDXJ both look like they could have another 10% upside move to them before hitting some resistance. Any money deployed now will be for a short term swing trade. Same if there is any weakness. when trading I could care less what direction things move. Long or short, calls or puts, money to be made either way. Any money made will be deployed on any weakness for longer term positions. Thats my strategy for now. Once this bull starts raging again that strategy will change
 

Voodoo

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IMO stop worrying about timing a bottom. DO start worrying about bigger picture things, like does my broker play games and will they just steal whatever is in there? Is the bank going to collapse and keep my money. If ya don't hold it, ya don't own it.
 

Jodster

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IMO stop worrying about timing a bottom. DO start worrying about bigger picture things, like does my broker play games and will they just steal whatever is in there? Is the bank going to collapse and keep my money. If ya don't hold it, ya don't own it.
Not all of us can cash out our retirement plans, pensions and bank assets without penalty.
Nothing I would like more than to throw my pension into 1/2 oz rounds and do the Scrooge McDuck. But reality has a lot of us “not holding it, not owning it.”
That’s why we try to time a bottom. The name of this thread is “trading talk” so excuse us if we don’t trust our brokers or just stack and hold for 30 years.
 

dpong

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