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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Gaps close or runaway gaps? Two favorites Cigarlover mentioned Silvercrest.


SILV_2022-08-01_08-30-03.png
MAG_2022-08-01_08-29-46.png
 

Lancers32

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Not an absolutely pure play but as close as you can get without trading futures. Wheat itself got down to major support in the low 7's.


WEAT_2022-08-01_09-06-20.png
 

Lancers32

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Used to go to the Garden with the old man as a kid. Millrose and K of C meets saw the first 16' vault in history John Uelses. This kid jumped 12'8" at the age of 7. The best vaulters could barely manage that in my dual HS meets. Better than Bubka. Amazing.


 

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Morning pondering:

I don't expect new life being breathed into the stock market any time soon. Brandon is still running the show politically. Powell & Yellen are compulsive liars and resorted to "reimagining" the definition of a Recession. Congress is corrupt and spending like drunken sailors.
The big players still have enough leverage and derivatives to manipulate any known stock or market. The fundamentals for SHTF are very much still in play.

There is something specific to precious metal markets; they're outliers. The break the general trend.
I can't think of any other market where the commodity is commanding such a premium to the product? WEAT? MOO? XOM? URNM? . . . The stocks follow, broadly, the cost of the commodity.
However with gold and silver costing massive premiums on the street, we see the mining and ETF's continue to be manipulated lower, while the physical commodity becomes more scarce and expensive.

This leads me to believe that the metals will be the first to break ranks and turn around. The predominant question is, how will this happen?

I believe the upcoming crash will look very much like April 2020, with one difference. The manipulators drove Silver and Gold down, too far, too early.
if there is infact, another lower move in the general markets, it would be hard for the metals and corresponding stocks to be driven lower. What may happen is the final positioning of JP Morgue and CITI into massive long positions, COMEX will default, and the markets finally allowed to run rampant. You will know when it's game on, as the MSM will finally cover this story with much verve and passion.
The ensuing frenzy into precious metals, in an un-manipulated market will catapult the prices into historic new highs. The massive long positions will ensure JPM and Citi get their slice of the profits, not from their historic downside manipulation, but from buying the dip and riding the beachball much higher in a free market.
 

Lancers32

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If you go back and look you'll see that even the biggest of all the pm markets feature more down days than up days.
 

Lancers32

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Morning pondering:

I don't expect new life being breathed into the stock market any time soon. Brandon is still running the show politically. Powell & Yellen are compulsive liars and resorted to "reimagining" the definition of a Recession. Congress is corrupt and spending like drunken sailors.
The big players still have enough leverage and derivatives to manipulate any known stock or market. The fundamentals for SHTF are very much still in play.

There is something specific to precious metal markets; they're outliers. The break the general trend.
I can't think of any other market where the commodity is commanding such a premium to the product? WEAT? MOO? XOM? URNM? . . . The stocks follow, broadly, the cost of the commodity.
However with gold and silver costing massive premiums on the street, we see the mining and ETF's continue to be manipulated lower, while the physical commodity becomes more scarce and expensive.

This leads me to believe that the metals will be the first to break ranks and turn around. The predominant question is, how will this happen?

I believe the upcoming crash will look very much like April 2020, with one difference. The manipulators drove Silver and Gold down, too far, too early.
if there is infact, another lower move in the general markets, it would be hard for the metals and corresponding stocks to be driven lower. What may happen is the final positioning of JP Morgue and CITI into massive long positions, COMEX will default, and the markets finally allowed to run rampant. You will know when it's game on, as the MSM will finally cover this story with much verve and passion.
The ensuing frenzy into precious metals, in an un-manipulated market will catapult the prices into historic new highs. The massive long positions will ensure JPM and Citi get their slice of the profits, not from their historic downside manipulation, but from buying the dip and riding the beachball much higher in a free market.

That much thinking would hurt my head. Easier to try to figure out what your wife meant when she said what she said.
 

Jodster

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That much thinking would hurt my head. Easier to try to figure out what your wife meant when she said what she said.
It's been 22 years and I still have no farging clue what my wife means most of the time.
Eerie similarity between October 2012 to July 2013 gold crash. Just look at the blue lines on the chart. Patterns line up almost perfectly and coincide about 3 years after a huge global event and massive amounts of stimulus.
Gold to $1400 by March 2023.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 10.53.35 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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Looks to me like wheat hasn't broken the downtrend.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.08.50 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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I know I owe some charts I promised over the weekend but hey, life happens. :).
Here's a couple.
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.06.24 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.05.42 AM.png
Screen Shot 2022-08-01 at 11.04.47 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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Lots of the miners charts looking similar. Could be a head fake. Get everyone loaded back up for the kill shot but right now I am cautiously optimistic. Was looking to start a position in Stillwater but they was having a hard time with that 10 dollar level. Waiting til it breaks that level and maybe get in around $10.20 or so. I think when it breaks 10 there is a good chance for a 10-20% move to the 12 dollar range. If it doesn't break that level I will look to start a longer term position in the low 9's. Pays a nice dividend as well so that's a bonus along with the longer term upside potential.

Overall I am liking the pullback I am seeing. Much better than a rocket launch and everyone chasing. Slow and steady is always a stronger move. I'm not seeing anything that looks like a reversal here so for now just watching and loading more cash into my account.

GDX and GDXJ both look like they could have another 10% upside move to them before hitting some resistance. Any money deployed now will be for a short term swing trade. Same if there is any weakness. when trading I could care less what direction things move. Long or short, calls or puts, money to be made either way. Any money made will be deployed on any weakness for longer term positions. Thats my strategy for now. Once this bull starts raging again that strategy will change
 

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IMO stop worrying about timing a bottom. DO start worrying about bigger picture things, like does my broker play games and will they just steal whatever is in there? Is the bank going to collapse and keep my money. If ya don't hold it, ya don't own it.
 

Jodster

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IMO stop worrying about timing a bottom. DO start worrying about bigger picture things, like does my broker play games and will they just steal whatever is in there? Is the bank going to collapse and keep my money. If ya don't hold it, ya don't own it.
Not all of us can cash out our retirement plans, pensions and bank assets without penalty.
Nothing I would like more than to throw my pension into 1/2 oz rounds and do the Scrooge McDuck. But reality has a lot of us “not holding it, not owning it.”
That’s why we try to time a bottom. The name of this thread is “trading talk” so excuse us if we don’t trust our brokers or just stack and hold for 30 years.
 

dpong

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dpong

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SKYT. Weekend Trend Trader up 38.5% since purchase a week and a half ago.

SKYT_2022-08-03_15-53-04.png
 

Voodoo

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Voodoo

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Not all of us can cash out our retirement plans, pensions and bank assets without penalty.
Nothing I would like more than to throw my pension into 1/2 oz rounds and do the Scrooge McDuck. But reality has a lot of us “not holding it, not owning it.”
That’s why we try to time a bottom. The name of this thread is “trading talk” so excuse us if we don’t trust our brokers or just stack and hold for 30 years.

It's hard with IRA's granted. But you can take ownership, at least in your name, of any retirement brokerage stocks by registering it in DRS system. Of course I still have some in IRA's and understand that could disappear but still be ok.
 

gnome

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It's hard with IRA's granted. But you can take ownership, at least in your name, of any retirement brokerage stocks by registering it in DRS system. Of course I still have some in IRA's and understand that could disappear but still be ok.
Roth IRA you can take out all your deposits without penalty, just not investment returns.
 

dpong

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SIGA. Up 23.36% from Monday's purchase.

[Update. Up 28.9%. That's real wriggler.]

SIGA_2022-08-05_11-17-45.png
 
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Uglytruth

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So how are you going to play that? Sell a portion? Tighten stop loss? Let it ride?
 

dpong

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So how are you going to play that? Sell a portion? Tighten stop loss? Let it ride?
See on the chart a little "+" plus sign at 13.82. That's my current stop loss @ 40% off the high of 23.03.

I don't play at all. The Weekend Trend Trader system tells me what to do, it is designed that way with zero discretion. As long as conditions are favorable, it will ride the 40% stop loss higher. When conditions turn unfavorable (The IWM index moves below its 10 week moving average), then WTT will revert to 10% stop loss and ride that higher until it is violated. Then I will sell.

The logic of this system is that a small minority of the stocks will go *extremely* higher, and this system seeks to continue to hold those stocks -- while not caring much one way or the other about the lesser stocks.
 

dpong

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Sell your losers and let your winners run.
 

dpong

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Zero discretion means my job is to just keep grinding the organ.

With the system designed and tested, then it's time to stop thinking.

[Just do.]

809e1ed8ddabb550c2d0ae934f66f4a1--pet-monkey-portrait-studio.jpg
 

dpong

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Buying 11 symbols on Monday's open bringing my total up to my maximum of 20 open trades.

[Spicy.]
 

Uglytruth

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This month my RSX does not show a value.

NOTE; Securities that display "-" in the price column are unpriced and do not reflect in your portfolio value.
 

Jodster

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Buying 11 symbols on Monday's open bringing my total up to my maximum of 20 open trades.

[Spicy.]
Kinda feeling like a bottom is in. Good call Mr. Pong.
Let’s hope it’s not a headfake.
 

Voodoo

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This has got to be the most pathetic Goldminers rally that I’ve ever witnessed. Gold up $100, but miners stay depressed near the lows

Lots of shorting out there and people have taken a mental hit lately. The mood around here was pretty darn low. Endeavor just reported pretty good numbers today but that's not the most important part. They WITHHELD a bunch of their silver production.


Added Mr. Dickson, “During the 2nd quarter, again we made the decision to withhold from sale a meaningful amount of silver, due to the drop in silver price. We are holding over 1.6 million silver equivalent ounces in finished goods inventory for future sale. Short term, the increased inventory has negatively impacted our quarterly financial metrics such as revenue, earnings, cash flow and our cash balance. Longer term, we anticipate selling the inventory at higher metal prices.”

They produced 1,359,207 ounces and sold 602,894 oz.... So that means they sold only 44% of the silver produced and just about broke even. Fantastic, use the gold to finance production and build a big savings account.
 

Lancers32

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This has got to be the most pathetic Goldminers rally that I’ve ever witnessed. Gold up $100, but miners stay depressed near the lows
Leads me to believe we eventually will head lower. I would not expect much out of the miners or U shares from here. Nice pop for U the past month the miners on the other hand with a few exceptions flat out suck.
 

Lancers32

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May be time to punt. Shit like this happens when the adults get back in charge.




 

dpong

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Good day in the market.

ARRY. My current leader, is up 44.04% since purchase last Monday.

Currently I have 15 winners and 5 losers. The greatest loser is down -19.87%.

ARRY_2022-08-10_16-21-50.png
 

Jodster

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Leads me to believe we eventually will head lower. I would not expect much out of the miners or U shares from here. Nice pop for U the past month the miners on the other hand with a few exceptions flat out suck.
yeah that's exactly what I think. Rarely does a pure bottom get put in outside of a Black Swan event.
The 'Rona did a good job April 2020.
Since then, Ukraine, Inflation, the Fed, congressional spending bills and other fuckery have caused a steady erosion, and have taken a toll on the markets but i think the Dem's/Deep State have another Global crisis planned. Maybe Taiwan??
That will probably be the trigger for a massive crash and increasing my stock positions.
About 30% stocks, 70% cash at this point.
 

JayDubya

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1660169578406.png

I found this interesting - "all volunteers". Are we sure about that?
 

Tbonz

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yeah that's exactly what I think. Rarely does a pure bottom get put in outside of a Black Swan event.
The 'Rona did a good job April 2020.
Since then, Ukraine, Inflation, the Fed, congressional spending bills and other fuckery have caused a steady erosion, and have taken a toll on the markets but i think the Dem's/Deep State have another Global crisis planned. Maybe Taiwan??
That will probably be the trigger for a massive crash and increasing my stock positions.
About 30% stocks, 70% cash at this point.
when are you thinking the Taiwan thing will break loose?

I kinda figure it has to happen before the mid-terms. Commies rally the troops to push support for House and Senate elections as Potatohead needs to have a Congress that will support him in a war?
 

Jodster

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when are you thinking the Taiwan thing will break loose?

I kinda figure it has to happen before the mid-terms. Commies rally the troops to push support for House and Senate elections as Potatohead needs to have a Congress that will support him in a war?
You basically answered your own question.
Nancy was over there telling her cronies that there will be a conflict by October.
Wartime presidents typically do strongly in the polls.
I also remember the leaked phone call where Trump was saying “Taiwan is next...of course they’re going into Taiwan.”
Former presidents still get security briefings so there’s a good chance it’s legit information.
Taiwan diverts attention while the Dems steal the mid-terms.
It’s THE probable black swan, as nobody but the staunchest idiot would buy into monkeypox lockdowns and vaccines.
 

Lancers32

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Whoever/whatever is running the show is probably dumb enough to telegraph every move they intend to make so some kind of skirmish/war in the Pacific is possible. Regrettably I am now old enough to not give a shit anymore.
 

Lancers32

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If the people who have been in charge of the US military the past 60 years were in charge of the North Lee could have won with one hand tied behind his back. We would all be better off.