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Jodster

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So really you think the bottom is in... How would anything get smashed? The mining stocks? If the price of physical doesn't change then it will be really hard to smash mining stocks. The price of diesel is about the only big problem. Even an all out stock market crash, sure the miners will drop some but it would be brief and a great buy.

If you are afraid of them hitting up the mining stocks then why not buy and hedge with some QQQ puts or GDX puts. Or just do like the pros and scale into the best mining stocks as they drop lower.
That actually is my plan. See above where I said I have bids in at April 2020 levels.
As for the bottom being in for physical, yes. Many mines have a cost of production around $18/oz. Keith Neumeyer from First Majestic has stated they won’t sell any more silver than they need to keep the lights on, below $18. The rest they’re simply stockpiling. Nobody can force them to sell at a loss.
The physical and paper markets have NOT decoupled yet. So to summarize, I expect stocks to get further monkey-hammered but physical to remain around $25 with premiums.
 

Lancers32

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I don't know if the conclusion is 100% correct but if a govt. can kick you off a job because you refused to submit to an experimental jab what do you think it will try to do if you look to circumvent by buying milk and bread with silver dimes?



 

Lancers32

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Might be time to think about putting a toe in the water on grains wheat corn soybeans. So long as Crude can hold $85 we just might test the highs.
 

Jodster

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Might be time to think about putting a toe in the water on grains wheat corn soybeans. So long as Crude can hold $85 we just might test the highs.
Had my eye on PDBC for a while. Thoughts on MOO, COW, WEAT, GIS?
 

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Completely off topic, but wholly smokes!

[This could change my life, how I look at things.]

 

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IMG_0064.jpg
 

Jodster

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Said the bullion dealer to the tree.
Say what you want Lancers, Andy’s rant about halfway through that podcast was one of the most succinct explanations of the future probabilities I’ve ever heard.
The Biden administration has truly caused the worst planetary fuckery seen since the dinosaurs got wiped.
Q believer or not, it’s going to be Biblical.
 

Cigarlover

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Said the bullion dealer to the tree.
Yep, it was a great rant if you're a bullion dealer wanting to spread fear to sell more bullion. I do think there was some truth in there. China will take Taiwan but the US won't give a shit. We are building our own chip plants here now so if we get them done in a timely manner it will be a seamless transition to start the manufacturing process here. In fact Biden probably told China to hold off until our plants are ready then they can have it.
Kyle Bass was on wealthion spouting war with China within 2 years. At the same time he is saying Chinas economy is forked and they cant afford a war.So I dunno, hard to say what the truth is here.
All I know for sure is Obama is still working on the destruction of the US. Powell was very clear last week and as I expected the markets finally listened and everything tanked. Great day for SQQQ. I was waiting patiently for the and of course when it happened I was traveling and missed the entire day. I do expect the SQQQ to make new highs though so still plenty of money to be made on that. Old highs were mid 60's I think and currently trading 43 ish in the overnight. There will be up and down days so Not a buy and hold unless you have deep pockets.

Powell is a smart guy. While he is trying to get inflation under control he is also up against the biggest contingent of morons in DC in US history. He raises rates to fight inflation and they spend money like drunken sailers like inflation isn't a problem. I do think he will continue to raise rates until they just cant spend anymore. I think he will tank the economy but I also think he has no choice. He' basically saying as much and there is no reason not to believe him. If he doesn't get inflation down then the economy also tanks so he's between a rock and a hard place. At least if the economy tanks and inflation is normalized he has room to pivot and lower rates to get it going again. Thats when the metals will shine again. I think it's going to be awhile for that though. In the meantime I am holding off on accumulating more metals shares for now and will focus on shorts. Short the high flyers with high PE's. Again, nothing long term but should be some good momentum plays in there on the way down. TSLA, APPL, AMZN. They will all get hammered in a recession and the recession is just getting started.
 

Jodster

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Yep, it was a great rant if you're a bullion dealer wanting to spread fear to sell more bullion. I do think there was some truth in there. China will take Taiwan but the US won't give a shit. We are building our own chip plants here now so if we get them done in a timely manner it will be a seamless transition to start the manufacturing process here. In fact Biden probably told China to hold off until our plants are ready then they can have it.
Kyle Bass was on wealthion spouting war with China within 2 years. At the same time he is saying Chinas economy is forked and they cant afford a war.So I dunno, hard to say what the truth is here.
All I know for sure is Obama is still working on the destruction of the US. Powell was very clear last week and as I expected the markets finally listened and everything tanked. Great day for SQQQ. I was waiting patiently for the and of course when it happened I was traveling and missed the entire day. I do expect the SQQQ to make new highs though so still plenty of money to be made on that. Old highs were mid 60's I think and currently trading 43 ish in the overnight. There will be up and down days so Not a buy and hold unless you have deep pockets.

Powell is a smart guy. While he is trying to get inflation under control he is also up against the biggest contingent of morons in DC in US history. He raises rates to fight inflation and they spend money like drunken sailers like inflation isn't a problem. I do think he will continue to raise rates until they just cant spend anymore. I think he will tank the economy but I also think he has no choice. He' basically saying as much and there is no reason not to believe him. If he doesn't get inflation down then the economy also tanks so he's between a rock and a hard place. At least if the economy tanks and inflation is normalized he has room to pivot and lower rates to get it going again. Thats when the metals will shine again. I think it's going to be awhile for that though. In the meantime I am holding off on accumulating more metals shares for now and will focus on shorts. Short the high flyers with high PE's. Again, nothing long term but should be some good momentum plays in there on the way down. TSLA, APPL, AMZN. They will all get hammered in a recession and the recession is just getting started.
Some of your thoughts, CL, I agree with and some I don’t.
As for the markets, I share your bearish outlook. There is still money to be made as the crash progresses.
However thinking Powell is struggling against reckless administration spending is pure fallacy. They are on the same team and both want the demise of the USA.
Volcker laid out a very clear roadmap for taming inflation over 30 years ago. Powell cannot/will not fight inflation with these paltry rate hikes. They are a systemic erosion of wealth and a prolonged ripping off of the Band Aid. Powell is simply a lame duck promoting a globalist agenda, and he will soon drop out of the spotlight, much like Fauci did. But he will do much damage first.
As far as semiconductor manufacturers, it will take at least two more years to begin production, if they put shovels in the ground today. The latest inflation stimulus package included $80 Billion to jumpstart chip manufacturing in the USA. Compare that to the cost of imported micro chips and you’ll see this is nothing more than pissing into a volcano. There is only one manufacturer of the wafer assembly machines in the world and it ain’t in this hemisphere. Investigate ASML.
As for Kyle Bass saying China can’t afford to go to war; there is no better stimulus for a country’s economy than war. Countries borrow to finance their wars and the Rothschilds have perfected the art of financing wars for centuries. Care to tell me how much Iraq cost? Afghanistan?
Not only can China afford a war, but it may be the only way out of their housing market collapse.
So while we may differ on various subjects, Andy Schectman nailed the present situation and our probable future, regardless of if he’s a bullion dealer, barber or homeless person. The truth is the truth, regardless of source.
Andy was also voted “Best speaker” at Rick Rule’s last Mining Conference, and considering the pedigree of the speakers, that is high praise indeed.
 
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Lancers32

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Of course the money goes to zero but the timing is the bitch. For the dollar to zero crowd buying every dip in the metals. It doesn't have to make any sense.


FbSaSqaVUAAdufd.jpg
 

Jodster

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Of course the money goes to zero but the timing is the bitch. For the dollar to zero crowd buying every dip in the metals. It doesn't have to make any sense.


View attachment 271777
Lower low's. Still gonna stay in cash but it's kinda like closing the ban door after the horses escape. I was down cost averaging when the market was higher. I guess I capitulated into cash because of fear.
 

Uglytruth

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Say what you want Lancers, Andy’s rant about halfway through that podcast was one of the most succinct explanations of the future probabilities I’ve ever heard.
The Biden administration has truly caused the worst planetary fuckery seen since the dinosaurs got wiped.
Q believer or not, it’s going to be Biblical.
BRICS new currency being used by 90% of the worlds population was eye opening. So the other side of that is the ds fiat dollar is F'ing over 90% of the world for decades! No wonder they want to do away with us & probably inflict as much pain as possible while doing so.
 

gnome

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While it has fallen behind, Japan is still the 3rd largest economy in the world. They are heavily dependent on energy imports and are getting killed in the present climate.

Why one economist fears the Japanese yen could be headed for a destabilizing downward spiral
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...ing-downward-spiral-11660819262?siteid=yhoof2
A prominent economist has begun to worry that Japan’s widening trade deficit could eliminate the last pillar of support for the world’s third-most widely used currency, potentially creating serious problems for its economy.

Carl Weinberg, founder and chief economist at High Frequency Economics, warned this week that Japan’s widening trade gap risked sparking a downward spiral in the yen that would be extremely out of character for a major world currency.

“We cannot put a point on it, but we fear Japan is headed toward a point not too far down the road where its yen comes into excess supply,” he wrote in a note to clients. “After all, what can one do with a bag full of yen?”
Hypothetically, a downward spiral of the yen could trigger a currency crisis like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, when the collapse of the Thai baht triggered a wave of currency devaluations, debt crises and foreign capital flight across East and Southeast Asia, although Weinberg didn’t go that far.
Historically, the yen has been strongly associated with the “risk off” or “safe haven” trade, a pattern that held for most of the decade-long bull run that followed the global financial crisis in 2008. Also, when the COVID pandemic triggered a historic selloff in global stocks, the yen rallied.
However, when global stock markets and other risk assets started cratering in the first half of 2022 as central banks started raising interest rates to combat inflation, yen strength was nowhere to be found. Instead, investors bid the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.01% higher.


The dollar’s move against the yen this year already has been one for the history books. As of Wednesday, the dollar USDJPY, -0.10% had risen more than 17% against the yen since Jan. 1 to trade at roughly 135 to the dollar. On July 14, the dollar briefly traded above 139 yen, its strongest level against the Japanese currency since 1998.
Weinberg’s focus on the Japanese trade deficit might seem outdated to some currency market observers, who have recently looked to other factors like real interest-rate differentials as the main force driving moves in currency pairs. But according to Weinberg, that could soon change now that Japan’s trade deficit has hit a record of 2.1 trillion yen, or $15.5 billion (see chart).
im-605847

SOURCE: CAPITAL ECONOMICS
Real interest rates dictate the difference between the return that investors can receive by keeping their money invested in a given currency after inflation is factored in. Currencies that offer higher returns are typically more attractive to investors.
 

Cigarlover

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BRICS new currency being used by 90% of the worlds population was eye opening. So the other side of that is the ds fiat dollar is F'ing over 90% of the world for decades! No wonder they want to do away with us & probably inflict as much pain as possible while doing so.
It's not being used by 90% of the worlds population right now. There isn't even a new brics currency right now. Andy exaggerates a wee bit. Like saying of the 195 countries in the world 200 of them are ready to join brics.
Also SA is a key in all of this. Right now they seem very interested in joining. A couple problems with that of course are, 1) they just bought 150 billion in US weapons. They might want spare parts for all that as well as ammo. 2) How many trillions do the Saudis have invested in the US in treasuries, real estate, reserves, gold and whatever other assets they hold here? Russia is going to protect them? Russia cant finish off Ukraine who didn't even have an army.

Of course Andy also forgets about the trillions in weapons and bases the US has around the world. Add to that the Chinese navy has an effective range of about 1500 miles. Great for protecting China, not so good if they want to head over to the Middle East.

So how exactly does this go down? SA announces they had a nice run with us but it's over? No more oil for you? Then the US announces that it was actually mostly saudis that attacked us on 911 and their human rights records are very very bad. . All SA assets frozen. Sa kisses trillions goodbye and US heads on over to secure the oil wells that we are about to take. Russia says but we have hypersonic nukes. And the US reply is do they stop our nukes from launching? Can you shot down all of our nukes? If not then MAD is still in effect so nukes are useless.

There's so much more we can get into in a wartime scenario. It's not as easy as Andy lays it out to be but his fear will surely sell a few more ounces of gold and silver.
 

Jodster

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Russia can’t finish off the Ukrainians because the USA is financing and arming them via a proxy war.
If SA and China liquidate their treasuries, they would collapse the US without firing a shot. There’s more oil in the mid-west than Saudi Arabia, and yet you’re begging Venezuela for increased imports?
Go ahead and take their oil.
See how it pans out for the dollar. Americas enemy is within its own border.
 

Uglytruth

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Like saying of the 195 countries in the world 200 of them are ready to join brics.
I have more faith in that right now than the usd being king of the hill much longer. We are all on a metals forum because we have no faith in the ds leadership to do anything right for us.

Russia was not part of "the axis of evil" until it paid off and got rid of the banksters. Then they became evil & blamed.

This accusing someone of what YOU are doing by the ds is worn out.
 

chris_is_here

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Keep your eyes on the 2022 mid-terms, if what I think is going to happen actually does come to pass (mass cheating, allowing the DNC globalists to maintain control of congress), things are going to get real ugly, real fast.

Everyone knows that support for these Marxist punks in suits and ties is nonexistent now, the blathering Chidrule fashioning himself as 46th president is throwing shit against the wall to try to win back support, except it is isn't working....you forgive 500 billion of student debt and piss off all the hard working people like us that paid our own way or took and repaid our loans, only to be told now that our tax dollars are going to pay for the Bernie-Bro idiots that took $200k loans to get a degree in race relations or gender studies, knowing they could never pay it back with their shit $35k a year jobs (if they even work).

You raid Trump's home and steal declassified papers on a fishing expedition, it's a transparent attempt to divert attention way from the latest disaster to unfold - which is that Iraq has now fallen to our enemies, making a mockery of the sacrifice of thousands of men and women that went over there and fought and died for the lies of war-criminal Bush Jr.

I think our Arab Spring moment is coming - there's no predicting when and where it will happen. That's why the creeps have come down hard on the Jan-6 protestors. Basically, that crowd, if armed, properly led and organized could have toppled the US Congress. The globalists are vulnerable and they know their days are numbered, this these third-world shenanigans may work in Venezuela or Brasil, but they won't fly here. Most people have had it, and once they see their savings evaporate through the combination of galloping inflation and faltering markets, there will be hell to pay.

I'm planning my move now, it's going to happen soon. I want to be in the right place when the race to cessession starts.
 

Lancers32

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Russia can’t finish off the Ukrainians because the USA is financing and arming them via a proxy war.
If SA and China liquidate their treasuries, they would collapse the US without firing a shot. There’s more oil in the mid-west than Saudi Arabia, and yet you’re begging Venezuela for increased imports?
Go ahead and take their oil.
See how it pans out for the dollar. Americas enemy is within its own border.
Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine they could but I don't think they want to destroy the infrastructure and want to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. Don't forget Ukraine has been digging in for at least 8 years and still have lost a lot of land to Russia. No one knows at what speed Russia wants the war to proceed. Europe loses more the longer this goes.
 

Jodster

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Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine they could but I don't think they want to destroy the infrastructure and want to keep civilian casualties to a minimum. Don't forget Ukraine has been digging in for at least 8 years and still have lost a lot of land to Russia. No one knows at what speed Russia wants the war to proceed. Europe loses more the longer this goes.
I agree Lancers, I personally think they were just after the bio-weapons labs and documents. Their continued and prolonged occupation prevents the deep-state from swooping back in. This will soon manifest itself into an escalating war, as Ukraine is a pivot-point for progression into the East Blok.
 

Lancers32

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I agree Lancers, I personally think they were just after the bio-weapons labs and documents. Their continued and prolonged occupation prevents the deep-state from swooping back in. This will soon manifest itself into an escalating war, as Ukraine is a pivot-point for progression into the East Blok.


I think Russia will be satisfied with the East and the South including Odessa but I don't know.
 

gnome

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I think Russia will be satisfied with the East and the South including Odessa but I don't know.

Russia already took control of the majority of Ukrainian energy and mineral resources. The farmland isn't worth it.
Odessa, of course that was a target from the outset, but that's gonna cost Putin if he really wants to take it.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-now-controls-least-12-164741759.html

Based on SecDev's review of 2,209 deposits, Moscow controls 63% of Ukraine's coal, 11% of its oil, 20% of its natural gas, 42% of its metals, and 33% of its rare earths, including key minerals like lithium.Some of that was seized during Russia's takeover of Crimea in 2014 or the war with Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

But since its invasion began in February, Russia has steadily increased its advance into Ukraine while overtaking the country's economic strongholds.

Using a tally from SecDev and Ukrainian industry, the Washington Post reported that Russia has seized 41 coal fields, 27 natural gas sites, 14 propane sites, nine oil fields, six iron ore deposits, as well as several sites for titanium, zirconium, strontium, lithium, uranium, and gold.
 

Cigarlover

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What caused the pop in Uranium stocks yesterday?
 

gnome

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Lancers32

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Cigarlover

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Looks that way this morning. If silver doesn't hold here it's going to get very ugly. 16? 15? 11?
 

Lancers32

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We'll see how they trade today but most of the stocks I am following are fairly well off the recent bottoms and probably will come down if they even do on less momentum than the last trip down. Still not a time to load the boat too much risk for me. HL and SILJ MAG.
 

dpong

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Hrm. We definitely broke it.

SILVER_2022-08-31_09-30-44.png
 

Lancers32

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Most miners seem to be holding up fine here well above the previous bottoms in the Silvers. PSLV has not made a new low while Silver has. I think we bounce from here stops fairly close at least in some issues. HL MAG and SILJ are well above the previous bottom even with an undercut low in Silver and two fairly large down days in a row now. Silver new low Gold nope. Seems like this is a recurrent them the past 40 plus years. Keep stacking Silver? Dunno 'bout that.
 

dpong

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The August price of the monthly S&P 500 closed beneath the 20 month moving average. Therefore, my Monthly Slow-Trade Retirement account system will remain in all cash. We have now been in cash for 4 straight months.

SPX_2022-08-31_16-02-28.png
 

Goldhedge

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We are building our own chip plants here now so if we get them done in a timely manner it will be a seamless transition to start the manufacturing process here.
Funny thing is Intel built a class 10 clean room chip factory on the west side of town about 15 years ago that NEVER got used. They sold it for nothing.

Now it's a Motor Vehicle dept and a jobs source....
 

Lancers32

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Not sure it even matters if you vote or not but I guess the thinking is that depleting the Strategic Reserve and forgiving a whole 10K in college loans is enough to sway the unwashed? I am still paying 50% more for gas than I was before this moron took over and expect to be paying close to $5.00 a gallon early next year again depression or no.
How much help is 10K in loan forgiveness gonna help anyone with college loans? Well at least it's free huh? Not really.

:secret:
 

Voodoo

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Not sure it even matters if you vote or not but I guess the thinking is that depleting the Strategic Reserve and forgiving a whole 10K in college loans is enough to sway the unwashed? I am still paying 50% more for gas than I was before this moron took over and expect to be paying close to $5.00 a gallon early next year again depression or no.
How much help is 10K in loan forgiveness gonna help anyone with college loans? Well at least it's free huh? Not really.

:secret:

That's the thinking i believe. Nobody accused these idiots of being good at "thinking". Although, one more nice down day in Silver and I might just have to go on another boating trip. Ya buddy.
 

Uglytruth

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perry

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gold is at a dangerous level, last support was 1690 or so. not taking guesses on gold, how low it can go?
 

Cigarlover

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3 year weekly. If we give up 1680 then 100 points lower is next potential support. Below that is 1400's. If the dollar goes to 120 then I can see gold going lower.
Screen Shot 2022-08-31 at 10.21.08 PM.png
 
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