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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Cigarlover

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Are we going to have a 2 year recession? Hard to imagine when we have poopy pants and his merry band of twerking trannies running things.
 

Lancers32

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I think we go over the cliff people with a lot of money/assets will be OK lots of the population will be screwed. Hard to believe this isn't all by design. I've seen what people over in Europe have to pay for energy to operate as opposed to last year and anyone with just one operating brain cell has to know why this is happening but those in place not only don't reverse course they double down.
Fires in food plants money to a laundry operating as a country weapons going directly to black market. 2 year recession? What is coming back?
 

Lancers32

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This isn't the half of it.


 

Jodster

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3 year weekly. If we give up 1680 then 100 points lower is next potential support. Below that is 1400's. If the dollar goes to 120 then I can see gold going lower. View attachment 271986
Keeping my physical shiny, stopping out of the stocks.

What's the next right move? Staying in cash and trying to catch the bottom.
Setting $1K bids in GDXJ, GDXU, SILJ & SILX just as casino money.

I didn't even believe myself, when I said it, but $13 silver and $1400 gold are my next buying opportunities. The markets are rigged and nobody's gonna stop it anytime soon.

Uranium may have some wind left in it's sails; their warrants have kept my portfolio neutral in the last few months, as the PM's got slaughtered.
 

perry

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dollar was at $103 when gold was at $1500

dollar at $109.80 at gold $1689

charting points dollar between $111-$112 but a parabolic move higher than that is anyone's guess. gold is on an upward trend like x verses time.
 

Lancers32

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Keeping my physical shiny, stopping out of the stocks.

What's the next right move? Staying in cash and trying to catch the bottom.
Setting $1K bids in GDXJ, GDXU, SILJ & SILX just as casino money.

I didn't even believe myself, when I said it, but $13 silver and $1400 gold are my next buying opportunities. The markets are rigged and nobody's gonna stop it anytime soon.

Uranium may have some wind left in it's sails; their warrants have kept my portfolio neutral in the last few months, as the PM's got slaughtered.

What is your time table for your targets in Silver and Gold?
 

Jodster

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What is your time table for your targets in Silver and Gold?
Great question Lancers, but I'd be lying if I said I knew. I drew a great chart yesterday that had a well defined Bearish channel. But do you think I could find it today?
Anyhow I seem to remember that the cycles were bottoming every 43 to 45 days. If that's true then we're looking at another leg down mid-October.
This seems eerily coincidental to propping up the Biden economy just before the Mid-terms. I would think this is when we see the Powell Pivot and dollar in the 112 to 115 range. A spot price of gold around $1560 to $1580 would make sense and I wouldn't be surprised to see silver around $14-15.
This will, cause a run on silver and possible Comex Force Majeure . . settlements in cash, exit of shorts and firesafe on stocks.
I would expect a strong bull run after that, as the mid-terms will be over and the Dem's won't give a shit at that point.

How it plays out is anyone's guess tho. I hope to be buying on the cheap before Hallowe'en.

EDIT: I'm still bullish on PM stocks and metals, but we're playing by the house rules at this point. If ya can't beat'em, join'em.
 

Lancers32

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Those targets make more sense to me but who knows. The next good buyable low may not even be final bottom but we should get a good rally fairly soon. I have nothing on now. Uranium looks dangerous might be distribution patterns working. No need to rush screwed this last little U bottom and 40% run but there's always another opp down the line.
 

Cigarlover

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Sometimes the safest thing is cash. SQQQ is about the only thing worth trading lately. If the QQQ heads back down to 270 then the SQQQ should head up to about 67. Thats what it did last time anyway. That would put the Nasdaq at 11k. A very possible scenario.

Powell is getting what he wants. The left and right are both going to feel the pain when they look at their 401k's. Maybe it will make a difference come November.

Also, in the inflation production act they just passed there was 300 billion for green projects.. Those projects use a lot of silver (Solar panels anyway) What if some of that money went into shorting silver so these companies could buy it on the cheap?
On the other hand the silver producers at some point are going to say F this and not want to sell product at a loss. They either hold product even more and take a massive hit to earnings or they shut down the mines. I cant imagine going through the expense to shut down the mines and then reopen up later. A big problem I see there is rising costs from both labor and fuel. Those aren't going away and at a time when product is not keeping pace with inflation. I thought All in costs were up in the 17's for many companies. Not bad when silver is high 20's. Not good when it costs more to produce than you can sell it for.
 
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Lancers32

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Meanwhile in the land of the fruits and nuts.


Fbg_03tX0AM1EOW.jpg
 

dpong

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My Weekend Trend Trader has me fully invested in 20 positions. Recent market action has turned the system to defensive. Will likely start selling stocks at the beginning of next week, not for gains. The system does what it does.
 

Lancers32

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So I can sell my house and get a free hotel in LA? I can trade during the day and hang at the beach all night. If they throw in some free weed I'm in.

Should do wonders for the tourism industry. Pony up for a hotel room live next to a bunch of mental patients. No thanks.
 

dpong

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Yeah, I'd like them to unpack that term: "Compel." That's a nasty nasty word.
 

Cigarlover

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Yeah, I'd like them to unpack that term: "Compel." That's a nasty nasty word.
Compel, to force at the point of a gun, any action the government demands.
 

dpong

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Yes, generally speaking slaves are compelled.
 

Voodoo

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I feel compelled to change the City Council vote from Hotel to City Council person's spare rooms.
 
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dpong

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I feel compelled to change to City Council vote from Hotel to City Council person's spare rooms.
A most compelling argument.
 

Tbonz

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If this truly is a "mega bubble" like some are talking about, then I'm going to guess that the NASDAQ is going below 10 again.

I'd like to see the S&P and DJI back down in the 3/2009 range. There are so many assets that are WAY WAY over valued, things need to be put back in their place.
 

perry

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the dollar index is setting up for a leg up
 

Jodster

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Those targets make more sense to me but who knows. The next good buyable low may not even be final bottom but we should get a good rally fairly soon. I have nothing on now. Uranium looks dangerous might be distribution patterns working. No need to rush screwed this last little U bottom and 40% run but there's always another opp down the line.
You were wise to tell me there's always another opportunity down the line. I think that's why a lot of us are thinking cash is the safest bet right now.
Uranium's pseudo-rally will be short lived, as it's based on articles about Germany and Japan looking at expanding it's nuclear power production.
I’m feeling “compelled” to sideline stocks and buy physical on the upcoming dip.
If you had told me 5 years ago we were heading back to 2009 levels for physical metal I would have though you mad!
I really expected the moonshot by now, but it hasn’t happened yet so I will continue to stack.
My faith in the PM complex is unwavering, but my faith that it will be soon, is.
 

jelly

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Starting to look like 2013 again...before the plunge. There is absolutely nothing positive for gold/silver right now.
 

Uglytruth

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Starting to look like 2013 again...before the plunge. There is absolutely nothing positive for gold/silver right now.
Thoughts on selling part & buying back at a lower price..................
 

Jodster

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Thoughts on selling part & buying back at a lower price..................
I’ll never sell any physical before the moonshot. But my stop losses have triggered for 80% of my stonks.
In the paper game, I’ve sold and will try to time the bottom.
I’ve been unsuccessful so far :p
 

Voodoo

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Starting to look like 2013 again...before the plunge. There is absolutely nothing positive for gold/silver right now.

What 2013 plunge? It must have been so bad I don't remember it.
 

dpong

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dpong

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iShare Russell 2000 (IWM) index closed below it's 10 week moving average. So my Weekend Trend Trader turns defensive. Cannot take any new trades and move the stop loss levels to 10% up from 40%.

I'll sell 5 stocks upon market open on Tuesday after labor day. [Because they were stopped out.]

IWM_2022-09-02_16-53-50.png
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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Maybe that is a signal that we reverse soon?
Small sample size wouldn't you say? The implication is that Jelly is always wrong and that just ain't the case now is it?
 

Lancers32

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Even the smartest guy in the room can be wrong. 2 year old interview.

 

savvydon

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Small sample size wouldn't you say? The implication is that Jelly is always wrong and that just ain't the case now is it?
Jelly is one of the most solid guys on here imo. Sample size is bigger than one. All you have to do is cruise multiple threads on GIM to see that the majority are calling for lower PM prices. Just a small cross section of the retail PM investor/buyer - but enough to make It clear that sentiment is in the crapper. When this is the case you have to have your antenna up for the possibility of a reversal.
 

Voodoo

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35 down to 14.

Guess I was mostly out. Had sold a few ounces and either sold my miners or just forgot about them. I did not watch them hardly at all that year.
 

Lancers32

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Does your dollar buy what it did 10 years ago? Now tell me Silver is an inflation hedge.
 

Lancers32

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Jelly is one of the most solid guys on here imo. Sample size is bigger than one. All you have to do is cruise multiple threads on GIM to see that the majority are calling for lower PM prices. Just a small cross section of the retail PM investor/buyer - but enough to make It clear that sentiment is in the crapper. When this is the case you have to have your antenna up for the possibility of a reversal.
Looking lower but not selling. Sentiment being in the crapper doesn't mean we can't go lower. Still waiting on the capitulation selling to buy the miners.