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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

savvydon

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Sentiment being in the crapper doesn't mean we can't go lower. Still waiting on the capitulation selling to buy the miners.
Never said it can't, but at some point we find a bottom. You find your spot n lays yer money down.
 

Uglytruth

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I think that is when gold went from $1000 to $1900 and back to $1300.
 

Cigarlover

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Key support right here. I could see a bounce happening before the elections. Powell will raise this month and then wait until after the elections before raising again. If this level holds through the interest rate hike this month then it is possible to run to 20 by end of the year. However, in my opinion, we haven't seen the lows. My opinion is also worth what you paid for it so do your own DD. LOL.
Oh and this is a 3 year weekly chart.
Screen Shot 2022-09-02 at 11.02.58 PM.png
 

TAEZZAR

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Thoughts on selling part & buying back at a lower price..................
Think before you do that. Selling & buying back is not just a gamble, but gold has to go low enough to cover the buy premium.
ALSO, you are exposing yourself to the new irs goons, if they are instructed to "come and get it", along with your "hardware"! :gracious:
 

Lancers32

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So if you say price doesn't matter can I assume you are underwater?
 

Lancers32

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Never said it can't, but at some point we find a bottom. You find your spot n lays yer money down.
At some point yep. I respect your opinion but anything can happen.
 

savvydon

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At some point yep. I respect your opinion but anything can happen.
I have been kicked in the nuts this year in the 401k account where I trade. I got trapped long on a bunch of miners and refuse to sell at this discounted price. Perma bull sucker. I wouldn't inflict my trading advice on my worst enemy. Still, like a broken clock, I'm hoping to be right at some point...

Accumulating metals is a whole different story. I never regret that. If metals go lower and I have fiat to spend I'll just get moar. Pity I recently lost it all in a tragic boating accident.
 

Lancers32

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Seemed like it was much easier making money on the miners the last bull market. Things might look a lot different down the line but I don't know where you are going to be able to spend those Silver dimes in trade especially in and around the cities. Might work in rural areas but unless we manage to get rid of the crap that rules I can't see how.
 

viking

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If metals go lower and I have fiat to spend I'll just get moar. Pity I recently lost it all in a tragic boating accident.

After hearing of all the tragic loses here, I’m offering GMers a discount on my new and improved metal detecting underwater drones.

1662301564381.jpeg


Limited stock, so order now while supplies last!
 

Lancers32

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Last go round.
big (7).gif
 

Jodster

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Great question Lancers, but I'd be lying if I said I knew. I drew a great chart yesterday that had a well defined Bearish channel. But do you think I could find it today?
Anyhow I seem to remember that the cycles were bottoming every 43 to 45 days. If that's true then we're looking at another leg down mid-October.
This seems eerily coincidental to propping up the Biden economy just before the Mid-terms. I would think this is when we see the Powell Pivot and dollar in the 112 to 115 range. A spot price of gold around $1560 to $1580 would make sense and I wouldn't be surprised to see silver around $14-15.
This will, cause a run on silver and possible Comex Force Majeure . . settlements in cash, exit of shorts and firesafe on stocks.
I would expect a strong bull run after that, as the mid-terms will be over and the Dem's won't give a shit at that point.

How it plays out is anyone's guess tho. I hope to be buying on the cheap before Hallowe'en.

EDIT: I'm still bullish on PM stocks and metals, but we're playing by the house rules at this point. If ya can't beat'em, join'em.
A chart that might realistically show where we're headed. Time frame for next bottom is still Mid-October.

Screen Shot 2022-09-06 at 6.57.20 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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Looks like support held last Thursday 30 minute chart looks fairly good.
Screen Shot 2022-09-06 at 7.54.33 AM.png
 

Cigarlover

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I agree with Jodsters chart above. I see the same thing on daily and weekly charts. We could get a decent pop to low 19's. If we don't break through that on strong volume I think the downtrend in the longer term charts continues.

Uranium stocks looking pretty good this morning.
 
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Voodoo

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The YEN is falling apart again. Ten year US bonds are testing the lows again or they could absolutely fall apart.
 

Jodster

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While we're al waiting for the end of the world, I'm thinking of throwing some coin at a USD index and volatility index.
Picked up some stink bids on VXX.
how would you play the dollar right now? I took a look at UUP and USDU.
 

Cigarlover

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While we're al waiting for the end of the world, I'm thinking of throwing some coin at a USD index and volatility index.
Picked up some stink bids on VXX.
how would you play the dollar right now? I took a look at UUP and USDU.
I've been watching UUP myself. I think as long as the fed keeps raising the dollar will keep rising. Over 1.10 now. How high can it go? 1.15-1.20? In 6 months it's up about 4 points on UUP. Not a big mover in any direction. If your parking a boatload of capital though it seems like a safe place to park it.

Another one I am playing with is SQQQ. Just a small position right now but I am looking to add as the daq breaks down below 12k. I think short term 11k is in play. The problem with all of this is that everything is so choppy. Fed will raise this month. Markets should go lower unless they are already pricing this in. Then we have elections coming up and the fed doesn't normally mess with things to much beforehand. Then we have the outcome of the elections. So many ways this could all develop.

For now I am sticking with the markets go lower for a few quarters as this recession really kicks into gear. I'll keep adding to miners and eventually the fed will pivot and of course that's when they pay off.
 

Jodster

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Gold to $1610 within 2 weeks?
Ironically I’m coming into a small sum of cash. Let’er drop!
People are wailing and gnashing their teeth at the precipitous drop in metals lately.
They don’t act this way when a truck offers $5000 cash back or a toaster is half price.
And I would argue that gold and silver are a much better investment.
Let’er drop! I’m still a long term bull so this is just a buying opportunity before the market runs again!

EDIT: I’m a member of Reddit WallStreetSilver. If silver drops much further, there’s over 210k apes that still have plenty of dry powder.
Point being, this lower price may be the mechanism to bring about a force majeure. If premiums don’t eat up the bandwidth, Comex will be in a precarious position.
 

EchelonPL

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Wouldn't the contrarian play be that a LOT more silver is going to be registered with COMEX soon? Kinda weird but i woke up with this chart in my mind after a vivid dream and have yet to interpret it. There were two distinct trend lines drawn one after a large drop in the chart. No idea what y axis was. Any chart gurus out there to help?


1662499066515.png
 

Voodoo

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Wouldn't the contrarian play be that a LOT more silver is going to be registered with COMEX soon? Kinda weird but i woke up with this chart in my mind after a vivid dream and have yet to interpret it. There were two distinct trend lines drawn one after a large drop in the chart. No idea what y axis was. Any chart gurus out there to help?


View attachment 272489

It just does not exist.
 

Cigarlover

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SD bullion had 100 oz bars on sale today for 1.99 over. Good way to help deplete comex.
I know EXK and Ag are both withholding silver. I wonder if MAG and other producers are as well. Even producers where silver I just a byproduct. Seems like it would make sense for them especially to hold on and wait for higher prices.
 

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To much Drama in this for me! I shall wait for the smoke to clear and proceed from there. (KISS) :-)
 
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Jodster

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It just does not exist.
With all due respect,, Mr. VooDoo, they can print as much silver as they want.
The video I posted above has to be the single best video I have ever heard, on the Comex. JP Morgue, Citibank, SLV are all exposed, with charts and technical breakdown.
Summary is that the Comex will never default because they have 200 pages of contract “clauses” to prevent that.
The end result will be competing East/West markets.
The Orient will soon be paying over spot for physical, which will lead to a massive draining of Western Stockpiles and a bona fide physical exchange.
The Western markets will end up playing with derivatives and contracts, none of which will be backed by actual silver.
 

Uglytruth

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Rethink this


Bank of Russia agrees to legalize crypto for cross-border payments​

Sep 6, 2022
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The Ministry of Finance announced the possible imminent legalization of cross-border payments in cryptocurrencies The Ministry of Finance announced the possible imminent legalization of cross-border payments in cryptocurrencies. Picture: Петр Ковалев/ТАСС
Historically opposed to the idea of using crypto as a payment method, the Bank of Russia has reportedly agreed to allow cross-border payments in crypto due to geopolitical changes.
The Russian central bank has been rethinking the approach to regulating crypto and agreed with the finance ministry to legalize crypto for cross-border payments, the local news agency TASS reported on Monday.
Deputy finance minister Alexei Moiseev reportedly said that the Bank of Russia and the finance ministry expect to legitimize cross-border payments in crypto soon.
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Moiseev outlined the importance of enabling local crypto services in Russia, noting that many Russians rely on foreign platforms to open a crypto wallet. “It is necessary to do this in Russia, involving entities supervised by the central bank, which are obliged to comply with Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer requirements,” the official stated.
Russian lawmakers have been historically opposed to the idea of using cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In 2020, Russia adopted a major crypto law, “On Digital Financial Assets,” which officially prohibited the use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) for payment purposes. The Bank of Russia has been skeptical about the idea of cryptocurrency payments because it wanted to protect the Russian ruble as the only legal tender in the country.
The idea of crypto payments for national trades in Russia surfaced in late 2021. Then, Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was “still premature” to use crypto for trades of energy resources like oil and gas.
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The situation has apparently changed amid Western economic sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In May, the Minister of Industry and Trade declared that Russia would legalize crypto payments “sooner or later.” Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina also later suggested that crypto can be used for cross-border payments, but only if crypto doesn’t get into Russia’s domestic financial system.
According to Moiseev, the central bank has reconsidered its approach to regulating the industry, “given that the situation has changed.
He added that the planned infrastructure is “too rigid” for the use of cryptocurrencies in cross-border settlements. “Which we certainly must legalize somehow,” he concluded. [Tass, Coin Telegraph]
 

Lancers32

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If you are a US citizen which gold coin would you buy at this point? 1 ounce flavor.
 

Voodoo

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With all due respect,, Mr. VooDoo, they can print as much silver as they want.
The video I posted above has to be the single best video I have ever heard, on the Comex. JP Morgue, Citibank, SLV are all exposed, with charts and technical breakdown.
Summary is that the Comex will never default because they have 200 pages of contract “clauses” to prevent that.
The end result will be competing East/West markets.
The Orient will soon be paying over spot for physical, which will lead to a massive draining of Western Stockpiles and a bona fide physical exchange.
The Western markets will end up playing with derivatives and contracts, none of which will be backed by actual silver.

He was referring to putting more real silver on the Comex... Now, could they just make up some new numbers, possibly. But there is no more real stuff in quantity.
 

Jodster

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He was referring to putting more real silver on the Comex... Now, could they just make up some new numbers, possibly. But there is no more real stuff in quantity.
Exactly! They're putting in a lot of effort to prevent a squeeze . . that apparently isn't happening. All smoke and mirrors these days.
 

Oldmansmith

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If you are a US citizen which gold coin would you buy at this point? 1 ounce flavor.
I like the double eagles in fondle condition. Pretty cool holding a coin from the 1800s that some rich dude carried around. You used to be able to get them at not much over spot at my LCS, but it has been a while.
 
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Pyramid

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If you are a US citizen which gold coin would you buy at this point? 1 ounce flavor.
Right now, I'd go with Gold Buffalos at 6% over spot... https://sdbullion.com/1-oz-american-gold-buffalo-coin-random-year Probably not going to find a lower premium on US Mint Au coins elsewhere at this time.

Premiums on US Mint bullion products are crazy high, both silver and gold. Premiums are lower on Maples, Brits, Roos, Krugs etc.. I'm a firm believer in that future premiums, both on the buy and sell side, are completely unpredictable. So stack the lowest premium that is available at that time that has liquidity, and maybe add something of semi-numi/collector value that can be had at bullion prices that may have future premium appreciation (e.g. Lunars). JMHO, good luck out there folks.
 

Uglytruth

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Can one of you guys just tell me what’s gonna happen next, so I can get rich?
Kinda the purpose of this thread, wasn’t it?
Long caskets.
 

dpong

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Here is my best acting Weekend Trend Trader holding. CPRX currently up 49.5%.

CPRX_2022-09-08_13-48-59.png
 

Uglytruth

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^^^ Good for you! :2 thumbs up::thumbs up 2::D
 

EchelonPL

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See the post from Scorpio? GIM2 gunna go down early next year if someone doesn't pick it up.

I'll miss you guys.
 

dpong

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Maple leaf has Elizabeth's picture. Grab it fast before they put Chuck on there.