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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Lancers32

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Maple leaf has Elizabeth's picture. Grab it fast before they put Chuck on there.

I'd take 96. Now this guy.

FcKQ3eSWIAIJs8s.jpg
 

Cigarlover

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I've been watching UUP myself. I think as long as the fed keeps raising the dollar will keep rising. Over 1.10 now. How high can it go? 1.15-1.20? In 6 months it's up about 4 points on UUP. Not a big mover in any direction. If your parking a boatload of capital though it seems like a safe place to park it.

Another one I am playing with is SQQQ. Just a small position right now but I am looking to add as the daq breaks down below 12k. I think short term 11k is in play. The problem with all of this is that everything is so choppy. Fed will raise this month. Markets should go lower unless they are already pricing this in. Then we have elections coming up and the fed doesn't normally mess with things to much beforehand. Then we have the outcome of the elections. So many ways this could all develop.

For now I am sticking with the markets go lower for a few quarters as this recession really kicks into gear. I'll keep adding to miners and eventually the fed will pivot and of course that's when they pay off.
Just when I thought I had it figured out the dollar reverses and markets drive higher. LOL.
 

Cigarlover

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Holy smokes the dollar getting crushed!! down 1.25 as of right now.
 

Jodster

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Great interview with Andrew McGuire. Contango, arbitrage and backwardation at the Comex.
Excellent breakdown of the present situation in silver, if you’re interested.
 

Jodster

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Holy smokes the dollar getting crushed!! down 1.25 as of right now.
Just F'ing around with charts. Hoping to pick up some UUP at around $28.60 at the end of the month.
Yearly chart shows corrections average 15 days at 3.5%. Non scientific guess-timate.

Screen Shot 2022-09-09 at 10.37.59 AM.png


US Dollar Index DXY kisses the 106.9 level on this retracement:
Screen Shot 2022-09-09 at 10.46.09 AM.png
 
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Cigarlover

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Just F'ing around with charts. Hoping to pick up some UUP at around $28.60 at the end of the month.
Yearly chart shows corrections average 15 days at 3.5%. Non scientific guess-timate.

View attachment 272745

US Dollar Index DXY kisses the 106.9 level on this retracement:
View attachment 272746
Gareth in the above video says Euro to around 1.06. Probably consistent with the buck doing the same in your charts. I still think the buck goes to 1.15 to 1.20. Another rate hike should create even more demand for it IMO. How can the Euro have any strength with everything going on over there? Some things are just beyond my comprehension.
 

Uglytruth

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If they want to brign in a one world currency I would think parity between teh biggest players would help them & not to worry about the smaller players. They will jsut exchange at a set ratio by country.

Myabe the BRICS are moving faster than the ds banksters & it's first to market that "wins".
Face it we have zero faith in the fed bucks we use.
 

dpong

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The IWM Russell 2000 index is poised to close above its 10 week moving average. This will throw my WTT system back into condition green (aggressive) and I will probably resume buying stocks on Monday.

IWM_2022-09-09_15-49-38.png
 

Cigarlover

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Anyone follow New gold? I had em on the watch list for some reason. added some options today then at the close Huge buy of 1.9 million shares drove the price up then back down 5 minutes later. Not sure what went on there but not normal behavior from them. I can't find any news on them either.
 

dpong

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Monday I'll buy these 5.

[The symbols are WEAV, EWTX, PGEN, TLS, & OCUL.]

WEAV_2022-09-09_17-21-33.png


EWTX_2022-09-09_17-21-39.png

PGEN_2022-09-09_17-21-45.png


TLS_2022-09-09_17-21-52.png


OCUL_2022-09-09_17-21-58.png
 

EchelonPL

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Anyone follow New gold? I had em on the watch list for some reason. added some options today then at the close Huge buy of 1.9 million shares drove the price up then back down 5 minutes later. Not sure what went on there but not normal behavior from them. I can't find any news on them either.
No idea. I have north of 10k shares though.
 

Jodster

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dpong

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Thank you for sharing. I don’t have the technical knowledge most of you have and I don’t want to see this place turn into Wall Street Bets.
But sharing some well-thought out trades keeps the spirit of this thread alive.
To be clear, those aren't stock tips. My WTT system is a complete system. When and under what circumstances the system sells them has more to do with success than what or when I buy them. No stock tips here.

[I'm just sharing a little bit of what my system does. That's it.]
 

Jodster

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To be clear, those aren't stock tips. My WTT system is a complete system. When and under what circumstances the system sells them has more to do with success than what or when I buy them. No stock tips here.

[I'm just sharing a little bit of what my system does. That's it.]
Don't worry bud. I get all the stock tips I want from my barber :p
 

Uglytruth

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AIG is going public. Just made some huge manpower cuts to make the books look better.
 

gnome

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AIG is going public. Just made some huge manpower cuts to make the books look better.
great time for a great company with a great reputation to go public! I'll buying with both hands!
 

Lancers32

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Lancers32

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great time for a great company with a great reputation to go public! I'll buying with both hands!
Speaking of insurance companies. Let's say you have a life insurance policy with a company which is/was rated AAA. With the way things seem to be going how likely is it they would pay out a claim?
 

Uglytruth

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Speaking of insurance companies. Let's say you have a life insurance policy with a company which is/was rated AAA. With the way things seem to be going how likely is it they would pay out a claim?
First come first serve? Pretty bad when the sooner you die the better odds you have of collecting. What would a 50% or more market drap do to any insurnace companies?
 

gnome

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Speaking of insurance companies. Let's say you have a life insurance policy with a company which is/was rated AAA. With the way things seem to be going how likely is it they would pay out a claim?
That's why I don't have life insurance.
If we didn't get the memo in 2008, the ratings agencies are an epic scam. Tesla is rated just above junk and is in top 3 best financial position of all the megacaps (never mind the dead-man-walking auto industry).
FTA36cnVUAAkBx7.jpg
 

gnome

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Didn't AIG get bailed out in 2008 and then took everyone on some expensive outing to celebrate?
Yep, that AIG. They were rated AAA when the mortgage backed securities blew up. Fed loaned $140 billion to save "too big to fail" and took a majority of equity. Supposedly the fed made over $20B in interest when the loans were finally paid back.
 

Zed

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FWIW gold stocks are in an area that looks like a very good candidate for a longer term low.

I'm told that 80% of people expect a market crash, god only knows how they worked that out but market crashes don't arrive when 80% expect it. Expect a rip your face off short covering rally if that 'fact' is so.

I think I've bought Oliver's line, I fully expect a choppy declining bear market with plenty of false dawns.

There is a good chance that gold stocks get a hardon well before the Fed caves, at these values, if you have any sort of inside knowledge, this has to be a great buy.

Pento reckons they pivot in spring, that should result in preemptive buying in winter.

My alter ego wants to slash his gold stock buying wrists at the moment, normally a good sign.

Looks like we have a few short months to knock up 1000 pages before the threat of GIM getting shuttered rises, just as well, I've run out of hot air!

Good luck!
 

Jodster

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FWIW gold stocks are in an area that looks like a very good candidate for a longer term low.

I'm told that 80% of people expect a market crash, god only knows how they worked that out but market crashes don't arrive when 80% expect it. Expect a rip your face off short covering rally if that 'fact' is so.

I think I've bought Oliver's line, I fully expect a choppy declining bear market with plenty of false dawns.

There is a good chance that gold stocks get a hardon well before the Fed caves, at these values, if you have any sort of inside knowledge, this has to be a great buy.

Pento reckons they pivot in spring, that should result in preemptive buying in winter.

My alter ego wants to slash his gold stock buying wrists at the moment, normally a good sign.

Looks like we have a few short months to knock up 1000 pages before the threat of GIM getting shuttered rises, just as well, I've run out of hot air!

Good luck!
Who’s this sorry tosser ? :p

Welcome back Zed. You were dearly missed around these parts.
 
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Cigarlover

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FWIW gold stocks are in an area that looks like a very good candidate for a longer term low.

I'm told that 80% of people expect a market crash, god only knows how they worked that out but market crashes don't arrive when 80% expect it. Expect a rip your face off short covering rally if that 'fact' is so.

I think I've bought Oliver's line, I fully expect a choppy declining bear market with plenty of false dawns.

There is a good chance that gold stocks get a hardon well before the Fed caves, at these values, if you have any sort of inside knowledge, this has to be a great buy.

Pento reckons they pivot in spring, that should result in preemptive buying in winter.

My alter ego wants to slash his gold stock buying wrists at the moment, normally a good sign.

Looks like we have a few short months to knock up 1000 pages before the threat of GIM getting shuttered rises, just as well, I've run out of hot air!

Good luck!
Welcome back!!. What Jodster said.
 

Zed

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Maybe your return is a harbinger of some excitement in the markets?

It can't be too far away, maybe some charts tomorrow to show you what I'm looking at. Mind you if this floor breaks I'm jumping out the nearest window... fuck it, you can only take so much!
 

Cigarlover

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Dolla in the shitter this morning. Metals looking strong. Lets hope they hold at the open. I bought options in 2 miners on Friday. Hopefully we don't get the Monday morning smackdown. we should know in a few minutes
Screen Shot 2022-09-12 at 8.24.31 AM.png
 
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savvydon

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Looking good at the moment. Silver is moving up with authority. Silver short squeeze?

Zed should come by more often. He shows up for a quick cameo appearance and silver is knocking on a dollar higher. Nicely done!
 

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Silver has been in big backwardation and the insiders are LONG. The specs are caught short so just a matter of time for the insiders to let it go for a bit.

The miners are not buying this yet...which I think just shows how bad the sentiment has been.
 
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Jodster

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Silver has been in big backwardation and the insiders are LONG. The specs are caught short so just a matter of time for the insiders to let it go for a bit.

The miners are not buying this yet...which I think just shows how bad the sentiment has been.
Feels like they’ll let it run this week and then crush it on Friday, to paint a mild candle on the weekly charts.
The NEXT bottom will tell all. I can’t see strong gold and silver going into an election.
They’ll sic the Killintons onto Powell; give him a reminder who the real bosses are.
 

Uglytruth

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They are yabbering a BIG increase. So is that another 3/4 when they think it was going to be 1/2 ........... or 1% and send a shock wave. I think they are just jawboning & hoping for the best. I agree with Jodster not before midterms.
 
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Cigarlover

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They are yabbering a BIG increase. So is that another 3/4 when they think it was going to be 1/2 ........... or 1% and send a shock wave. I think they are just jawboning & hoping for the best. I agree with Jodster not before midterms.
Thats been my thoughts as well. Market is saying FU fed man. Powell will have the last laugh when he surprises everyone with .75 or 1.
Sold my Ag calls today that I bought on Friday. Probably go higher but anytime I can lock in a 25% profit in one day with miners I am taking it. Close to break even on some other mining shares. Looking to go cash as soon as I see any weakness. This dollar won't tank forever, not yet anyway and when it turns back up I expect much lowers prices.
Dont take my advice though, I am wrong more often than I'm right. LOL.
 

gnome

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Thats been my thoughts as well. Market is saying FU fed man. Powell will have the last laugh when he surprises everyone with .75 or 1.
Sold my Ag calls today that I bought on Friday. Probably go higher but anytime I can lock in a 25% profit in one day with miners I am taking it. Close to break even on some other mining shares. Looking to go cash as soon as I see any weakness. This dollar won't tank forever, not yet anyway and when it turns back up I expect much lowers prices.
Dont take my advice though, I am wrong more often than I'm right. LOL.
Wall Street is expecting 0.75 hike for Sept.
Inflation data comes in tomorrow and as long as it doesn't come in higher than expected, markets will rally despite the anticipated hike.
Personally, I'm more worried about QT than another rate hike.
 
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Cigarlover

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Wall Street is expecting 0.75 hike for Sept.
Inflation data comes in tomorrow and as long as it doesn't come in higher than expected, markets will rally despite the anticipated hike.
Personally, I'm more worried about QT than another rate hike.
Qt is only 100 billion a month or so. It will take them years to clear their balance sheet at that rate.
I do think Powell is doing the right thing. Of course he is up against the politicians in DC who will spend endless amounts of money to thwart his efforts. I'm surprised they haven't already send out 5k per person with promises of much more more if they are reelected.
Talking with my daughter today and I tried to explain how over valued everything is.
in 1990 when I started investing the DOW was about 1000. 10 years later it is 10,000 and way over valued. 20 years later and its 30,000 and super megalithic over valued.
If the inflation rate was 2 1/4 % since 1990 the Dow would be at 2036. Of course GDP was higher than 2 1/4% along the way.
So what's the real value of these markets? I'm guessing somewhere around 5-9k. Leaning towards the lower end of that.
Next question is what kind of event would get us there? Civil war? Succession? Meteor strike in DC?