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The Lunatic Fringe - Trading talk.

Zed

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Zed should come by more often. He shows up for a quick cameo appearance and silver is knocking on a dollar higher. Nicely done!

Yeah, well... timing is everything and sometimes you just get lucky!
 

Zed

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HUI-M-20220913.png
GDX-M-20220913.png


We are down on levels that COULD form a long term trend (3 points needed). Looks like at the least a counter intermediate trend rally is due. +35 GDX + ~275 HUI on a monthly close will look like a longer term trend change IMO. OBV in GDX is bouncing off what has been a support level since 2019. Looks to me like we will rally into the years end. How much juice? Who knows, I've got low expectations these days.
 

Voodoo

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Qt is only 100 billion a month or so. It will take them years to clear their balance sheet at that rate.
I do think Powell is doing the right thing. Of course he is up against the politicians in DC who will spend endless amounts of money to thwart his efforts. I'm surprised they haven't already send out 5k per person with promises of much more more if they are reelected.
Talking with my daughter today and I tried to explain how over valued everything is.
in 1990 when I started investing the DOW was about 1000. 10 years later it is 10,000 and way over valued. 20 years later and its 30,000 and super megalithic over valued.
If the inflation rate was 2 1/4 % since 1990 the Dow would be at 2036. Of course GDP was higher than 2 1/4% along the way.
So what's the real value of these markets? I'm guessing somewhere around 5-9k. Leaning towards the lower end of that.
Next question is what kind of event would get us there? Civil war? Succession? Meteor strike in DC?

Keep in mimd that the Zimbabwe stock market is at like 10 quadtrillion. Overvauled is a Very relative term.
 

Zed

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I’m a Canuck by the way.

Quick Dick McDick is giving me a laugh on YouTube... OK, that explains Tosser, not summin you hear from most!
 

Zed

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WTF is going on up there?

gold.gif
 

Voodoo

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WTF is going on up there?

View attachment 273069

Algo's programmed to think that raising interest rates is somehow bad for gold. This is how spec's are biggly net short while the insider's and physical peeps are buying the crap out of them.
 

dpong

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[CPRX]

CPRX_2022-09-13_10-09-31.png
 
Last edited:

Jodster

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Qt is only 100 billion a month or so. It will take them years to clear their balance sheet at that rate.
I do think Powell is doing the right thing. Of course he is up against the politicians in DC who will spend endless amounts of money to thwart his efforts. I'm surprised they haven't already send out 5k per person with promises of much more more if they are reelected.
Talking with my daughter today and I tried to explain how over valued everything is.
in 1990 when I started investing the DOW was about 1000. 10 years later it is 10,000 and way over valued. 20 years later and its 30,000 and super megalithic over valued.
If the inflation rate was 2 1/4 % since 1990 the Dow would be at 2036. Of course GDP was higher than 2 1/4% along the way.
So what's the real value of these markets? I'm guessing somewhere around 5-9k. Leaning towards the lower end of that.
Next question is what kind of event would get us there? Civil war? Succession? Meteor strike in DC?
Trump running for re-election?
 

dpong

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I couldn't buy EWTX or TLS at Monday's open because my limit orders did not get filled. I put in limit orders at Friday's closing price PLUS 4%. They never traded that low on Monday.

It's just as well. If today happened to be Friday, EWTX would be sold by the WTT system.

[If this was Friday...] WTT went to condition RED and pulled stop loss levels up to 10% off the high.

[If today was Friday, that is.]

EWTX_2022-09-13_14-56-02.png
 

dpong

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Today's CPRX rally didn't last. It's not far off of it's stop loss here.

If sold it would still be a respectable gain. Just not THE ONE.

CPRX_2022-09-13_15-15-09.png
 

BigJim#1-8

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Dow -1300+ as of this post...
 

Lancers32

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This guy wants to cure cancer with the same type of garbage that is being touted as a cure for Covid. Where's the money Robinette?


 

savvydon

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WTF is going on up there?

View attachment 273069
Inflation is hot, Powell will raise rates, dollar will soar. Agree with Voodoo that the metals raid was more or less pure algo. Also agree with Lancers that gold around $1690 is an important level. It should be noted that with the dollar ride down then up these last two days silver is above where it started, and the GSR has come down. We are still vulnerable here, but there is also the real chance of something constructive coming out of the metals sector in the fairly near term. Place your bets...
 

Zed

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Core CPI up to 6.4%. I think Powell will raise interest rates more than the .5 or .75 the market was expecting. Market may start pricing in full point now.

Right... so we thought core sat @ 6% with Fed funds @ 2.5% giving a real rate of -3.5% BUT now we think its 6.4% giving a real rate of -3.9% with the anticipation that might be bought back to real rate of -2.9% on a 1% hike. Meanwhile, after the 'hot print' the Ten Year is sitting @ 3.4 ish giving us a real rate of -3%. Totally a reason to aggressively short Gold!

This all goes off the day after silver goes +5% on some squeezy action.

This all makes perfect sense to me.

Wait, what?

LOL.

Looks more like anticipation of liquidity issues on the hike, so, will a Fed Funds rate of ~3.5% a whole 0.25% or so over what Powell told us he was doing from 'the hole', actually break something? This is a huge surprise... I mean it's not like he didn't warn us? Or do they simply not believe him?

What now... will the Fed actually respond to a market crash and pivot OR do we remain unwavering until inflation convinces them it is getting back in its box?

Pavlov Dags are howling for the pivot, they seem wed to the savior Fed by the dip model. I suppose you can't blame them, often their whole careers have evolved in that environment. Change is hard... but has the Fed really changed.

What fun... place your bets.
 

Zed

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Inflation is hot, Powell will raise rates, dollar will soar. Agree with Voodoo that the metals raid was more or less pure algo. Also agree with Lancers that gold around $1690 is an important level. It should be noted that with the dollar ride down then up these last two days silver is above where it started, and the GSR has come down. We are still vulnerable here, but there is also the real chance of something constructive coming out of the metals sector in the fairly near term. Place your bets...

Yet the USDX remains below last weeks high.

Hmmmm.
 

Oldmansmith

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This guy wants to cure cancer with the same type of garbage that is being touted as a cure for Covid. Where's the money Robinette?


This is all nonsense. They will never ”find” a cure, at least not one doesn’t cost tens of thousands of dollars. Way more people are making a living off cancer than are dying from it.
 

Zed

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Way more people are making a living off cancer than are dying from it.

Yup...

Agreed.

There is a doc in the US with a clinic the size of a 5/6 story hotel. Makes his own drugs in a basement lab set up and has a GREAT clear up rate. While they can't stop him practicing he has been regulated into a corner, patients must have exhausted the mainstream system before he can see them and he is forbidden from advertising. Word of mouth keeps what is effectively a small hospital going. There was a mini documentary about him posted on YouTube but it seems to have disappeared.

Anyway, fixing cancer threatens WAY too many peoples income. While "for profit" medicine generates great advantages while it is so tightly controlled by the goobermint "for our safety" it also has a monopoly that stifles real competition. If my head were on the chopping block I'd at least like the opportunity to 'roll the dice' with an alternate choice. My body, my money, my choice. About all that should be done is "truth in advertising" regulations to stifle blatant falsehoods being put forward. Other than that people face with little in the way of alternates should be allowed to take whatever risk they choose, At the worst we'd learn from their experience. Western med seems to have turned predatory, especially over this last period oy vey!
 

SongSungAU

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There is a doc in the US with a clinic the size of a 5/6 story hotel. Makes his own drugs in a basement lab set up and has a GREAT clear up rate.

Would Dr. Burzynski of the Burzynski Clinic in Houston, Texas be the person you are referring to?
.
 

EchelonPL

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Saw a very nice pop in Yellow Corporation (YELL). Less trains = more trucks. Wish i bought more shares when it was lower during the fuel spike.
 

perry

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Qt is only 100 billion a month or so. It will take them years to clear their balance sheet at that rate.
I do think Powell is doing the right thing. Of course he is up against the politicians in DC who will spend endless amounts of money to thwart his efforts. I'm surprised they haven't already send out 5k per person with promises of much more more if they are reelected.
Talking with my daughter today and I tried to explain how over valued everything is.
in 1990 when I started investing the DOW was about 1000. 10 years later it is 10,000 and way over valued. 20 years later and its 30,000 and super megalithic over valued.
If the inflation rate was 2 1/4 % since 1990 the Dow would be at 2036
 

Zed

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Would Dr. Burzynski of the Burzynski Clinic in Houston, Texas be the person you are referring to?
.

Quite possibly, I don't recall the name, I just remember the story. I marveled at the way the system had boxed the guy in.
 

Zed

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Voodoo

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If the commercials were still on the short side, however...

GLD goes that direction, the real stuff goes the other direction at 5x the speed.
 

Zed

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GLD goes that direction, the real stuff goes the other direction at 5x the speed.


There will be no gld if that was the case. It's either going to trade as a reasonable proxy or cease to exist.
 

Zed

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Gold looking soft into the Comex. The lid is on tight after the "inflation shock".
 

savvydon

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Gold looking soft into the Comex. The lid is on tight after the "inflation shock".
Yup. Feels like we are skating on thin ice, with cracks forming under foot.